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Is The Josh Allen Hype Forreal?


MistaBohmbastic

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Matt Stafford was at 52%, then 55%, but finally turned the corner at 61% as a junior.

He's about the only one I can think of.

I'm a firm believer that accuracy is the greatest attribute for a QB and I don't think that much can be changed to help out in this department, unless it's a tremendous mechanical issue...and even then, NOT LIKELY.

Cody Kessler agrees with you. ;)

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Nice college gameday piece on Josh, his humble beginnings, his fight to ascend as a zero star high school recruit to a FBS program.

His arm is Mahomes level ish...

Throw on the run again SDSU is one of a kind.

They show it here from the skycam....it's nuts.

He COULD end up being the best QB out of the draft.

Works in a pro offense as well.

Great kid; Great prospect; love to root for him and the intrigue....Give me Darnold.

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Completion percentage is the most meaningless stat as it means a lot until it means nothing.

Context matters: Are they throwing bubble screens, do the receiver catch it, is the oline garbage, are the WRs garbage...

Comp percentage is positively correlated with accuracy but you have to look case case.

It's more important to

1. See if the QB throws it where he intends to or where he should be intending to throw it via scouting of film....in order to do so one needs to see the all 22, know what the WR should be doing against that defense and see where the QB throws it.

2. Look at on target accuracy percentage.....that is, is the ball delivered in the strike zone.

On these dimensions, Josh Allen fares a lot better.

He's not some awful prospect.

He has mechanical issues and he and his team are overmatched every game.

He has abilities that only Rodgers, Cam Newton, Stafford, and Jay Cutler have in terms of raw arm ability and talent even exceeding Wentz, Luck, and Russell Wilson.

We're not talking about Derek Anderson here...we're talking about an elite athlete with a great work ethic and experience in a pro offense who has his fair share of play deficiencies.

While he's not the prospect of Darnold or Rosen...he could end up being the best with some development.

You can't take him over Darnold or Rosen, but if you're the Broncos and you have to decide between Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen...the decision is not so easy.

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Allen is a guy I could get behind if you’re picking 10, but not at 1.

Elite traits? Absolutely.

LOTS of question marks? Uh huh.

I know folks love the Wentz comp because of the coaching staff and smaller program, but I see a lot of Jake Locker in his game tbh. Like Locker he has every physical tool, but those tools don’t work like you’d expect when you watch him play. The sum of his parts isn’t as good as you’d hope imo.

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5 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Allen is a guy I could get behind if you’re picking 10, but not at 1.

Elite traits? Absolutely.

LOTS of question marks? Uh huh.

I know folks love the Wentz comp because of the coaching staff and smaller program, but I see a lot of Jake Locker in his game tbh. Like Locker he has every physical tool, but those tools don’t work like you’d expect when you watch him play. The sum of his parts isn’t as good as you’d hope imo.

Absolutely agree with the Locker comp as far as what his last year and pre-draft process are looking like. A looooot of white knight syndrome going on here. "I know he's deeply flawed, not particularly accurate, and should probably be a 2nd/3rd round pick, but I can fix all of them! JASH ALLAN #1!!!!!"

I'm not touching the guy in the 1st round. There are three QB prospects who are clearly safer than him with the same upside (Brady has a noodle, Rodgers has a cannon, both top 5 QBs of all time. Your upside isn't your arm strength, it's the place all your strengths meet and you improve your weaknesses to the point where they don't kill you). I see no reason in a draft where we will have our pick to even think about him.

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11 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Completion percentage is the most meaningless stat as it means a lot until it means nothing.

Context matters: Are they throwing bubble screens, do the receiver catch it, is the oline garbage, are the WRs garbage...

Comp percentage is positively correlated with accuracy but you have to look case case.

It's more important to

1. See if the QB throws it where he intends to or where he should be intending to throw it via scouting of film....in order to do so one needs to see the all 22, know what the WR should be doing against that defense and see where the QB throws it.

2. Look at on target accuracy percentage.....that is, is the ball delivered in the strike zone.

On these dimensions, Josh Allen fares a lot better.

 

Welcome to the dark side!:)

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6 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Allen is a guy I could get behind if you’re picking 10, but not at 1.

Elite traits? Absolutely.

LOTS of question marks? Uh huh.

I know folks love the Wentz comp because of the coaching staff and smaller program, but I see a lot of Jake Locker in his game tbh. Like Locker he has every physical tool, but those tools don’t work like you’d expect when you watch him play. The sum of his parts isn’t as good as you’d hope imo.

I personally feel he reminds me of Toothlessburger.

I unfortunately need to see a ton more of him, but so far what I have seen I think his completion percentage is not accurate.  He just seems far more accurate to me.  I just need to see if I can figure out why.  In his bowl game he was really accurate and yet had a 57.9% comp percentage.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The Josh Allen at 1 circus is in full swing,

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2018/01/browns_should_draft_josh_allen.html

WHY...

Someone please convince me we're not going to screw this up and take Allen over Rosen or Darnold....

Josh Allen is not Wentz.

Josh Allen is not Big Ben.

Josh Allen is not Patrick Mahomes.

Is this real life?

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On 1/4/2018 at 10:31 AM, Bonanza23 said:

I personally feel he reminds me of Toothlessburger.

I unfortunately need to see a ton more of him, but so far what I have seen I think his completion percentage is not accurate.  He just seems far more accurate to me.  I just need to see if I can figure out why.  In his bowl game he was really accurate and yet had a 57.9% comp percentage.

Roethlisberger, in three years starting at Bowling Green (not like his supporting cast was murdering people there either), never once had a compl% lower than 63.3%. Not once. 

He reminds you of Roethlisberger because he's tall, wide, heavy, and has a cannon arm. They are completely different prospects on pretty much everything else.

Those who say Mayfield is a no-go because of height and the history of short players in the NFL, you shouldn't be willing to touch Allen with a ten foot pole. No QB with as low a cmpl% as him has succeeded in the nfl in the last 20 years. Even Tom Brady, who got benched his senior year, had about a 61% career cmpl%.

Now, cmpl% isn't the end all be all for accuracy, as Mind noted. But it is an indicator, and it's indicating something fiercely negative where Allen is concerned.

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