jch1911 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 You need to start gambling with those kinds of stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 14 hours ago, jch1911 said: You need to start gambling with those kinds of stats! I wish it was that accurate...haha. The system I'm currently using isn't as complicated as the system I used in the past when I was gambling. However, like I've said in the past the system hasn't been all that accurate when projecting the outcome of the games when the stats aren't available. The win percentages posted above is the outcome of knowing the combined stats from the last 4 weeks, which allows me to group teams based on their performance and then to forecast a score based on the group facing another group. Older versions of this system took into account SOS, divisional games as well as some other minor factors but I've never included injury. This project is basically to show that trying to project each weeks wins is less accurate than if I was to have the combined stats for the season. Basicly, saying if I have the stats in advance the system is much more accurate than simply forecasting the outcome prior to knowing the cumulative stats. So we'll see how this system does over the season, but I fully expect the forecasting to drop significantly in accuracy when I don't have the stats to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 fyi, I made a slight change to the formula and it is projecting different winners so I'll post those here, to see which formula is getting the better result. PROJ. WINNER NewEnglandPatriots BuffaloBills NewYorkJets GreenBayPackers DetroitLions NewYorkGiants HoustonTexans IndianapolisColts LosAngelesRams TennesseeTitans OaklandRaiders PhiladelphiaEagles PittsburghSteelers MinnesotaVikings Still working on getting you guys a copy of the document, as it is currently set up in excel and would need to do some work to get it into google sheets, but I'm also wanting to work in some additional variables over the weekend so I'll get it posted within the next few days, depending on what I've got to do this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 After this weeks outcome with the projections, I really can't see using this system on a week by week basis. Only projecting 50% or less just isn't going to cut it. As noted, I still stand behind using this system after the season stats are completed. Perhaps we could look at a quarterly system that would allow for roster adjustments as those figures were pretty solid. I'll run the numbers again after week 8. I know that BDL is using a voting system to determine wins and loses, but personally I think that it requires way too much time and commitment, but I'm open to discussion or if anyone has another idea I'm all ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 Still working on the whole predictions and will continue to post quarterly but in the meantime wanted to get your suggestions on expanding on a google doc to make creating a more interactive trade block. I can't speak for everyone, but from my experience with discussing trades have really never worked out. The standard block is typically done by either sending out a mass of messages to gage interest levels, looking through several post and/or tossing out the random post in the discussion thread. I get that as GM's we're trying to get as much as we possibly can out of each trade so I'm not looking to change how we negotiate but simply an easy way to maintain your team's block as well as a means to make inquires. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12JuQuIEyLzM9jAG-rIOgPsR0Wy0OvfrRFGZyEQ11_VM/edit?usp=sharing The link above is a sample of what it might look like. It is set up so that you can edit the drop down list to see how it would work. The first three tabs (team draft trade block, position trade block and trade inquiry) would be housed in your team's war room doc, which I'm hoping to combine this doc with the unofficial team roster doc, thus making it a private doc that only the GM would be allowed to view. The "team draft trade block" while a crappy name, is a pretty simple set up in that you are either looking to move up or down with the pick. The information you provide here would be displayed in the "draft board" doc. So other teams would be able to quickly view which teams are looking to move picks at any point in time during the mock. If you have any suggestions on expanding this concept such as adding more to the options in terms of how far you up or down you want to go or other ideas, please discuss. The next sheet in the workbook is the "position trade block", I apologize for these sheet names being confusing, I'll get those corrected in the future. This sheet allows you to select the position you are looking to acquire. Simply change the position using the drop down and the formula will display any names that have been added to the trade block by other GM's. It will provide a link to the General Manager's private messenger as well as the players contract information. Please any suggestions on making this better, I'd love to hear it. The last private sheet is the "trade inquiry". This would allow you to use the first column to insert your team name to any number of players that you'd be interested in discussing possibly trading for. Of all the sheets, thus far this is the only one that needs to be shortened to prevent the workbook from getting too bogged down. I think I can find some workarounds to make it work without the need to list every single player. Nonetheless, the concept would provide the GM a means of notifying the GM privately without sending out the initial private message. The final sheet, "draft trade block" is used in this doc to give you a formula injected sample of how the actions you make in the "team draft trade block" would display in the draft board. One additional sheet that isn't displayed in this doc is the "trade value scale", which can be found in the link below. It isn't pretty to look at but the idea is to allow you to quickly view how fair a trade is based on the draft pick value chart. This scale is designed to give the GM a general idea of how much a player's value is based on the position and grade. Again, this scale isn't used to determine the acceptance or rejection of a trade but merely a tool to get estimated values. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ABI3r2526gwq4D129Xq65d3ozZopd1AKBcOSz0cTsqw/edit?usp=sharing Please provide your thoughts. fyi, we've got several holidays coming up and the offseason will be here before here before we know it. I've got lots of things to do to prepare and will be in search of google doc beta testers, so if you're interested please volunteer. Thanks Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 @Counselorvoiced his concerns about the trade block concept. Hope you don't mind me moving these concerns from our private conversation to here, just thought that others might have the same concerns and wanted to put every ones mind at ease. Counselor said: "Wow man I love those ideas. To have what position your looking for, what players you might be interested in trading for, if you want to move up or down with each pick. I just wouldn't want to assign a value to a player in the trade block that others can see (I didn't see that in there but I'm just throwing it out there). Because the fun is negotiating and the best part is getting better value than you were expecting and that's hard when you have a set value on someone that others can see."..."That's the great part about the mocks." "Also I like the fair value for the draft picks to see how close in points a trade is. I don't think a trade should have to be that close in points however as desperate teams will give more. We see this often in irl. And also as long as the doc doesn't include or assume what a players value is point wise." So the purpose of the trade block isn't designed to limit trading or restrict trades those rules of open trades have not changed. I feel that the assigned GM knows their team better than someone looking in and that the only time the Commish would need to step in to stop a trade is if the trade creates a negative cap, or if there is evidence that the GM has showed a clear intent to damage the mock draft. The trade block scale values are only there to serve as a guide for fair trading but it doesn't prevent the trade from favoring one over the other. This trade block concept is only a tool for making it easier for the GM to locate potential trading partners without the need of creating additional threads, that really don't achieve the desired effect. Hope that clears up any concerns but feel free to voice any other concerns you might have in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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