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Is the Qb situation good enough?


thebestever6

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Re: Luck desperation for a QB solution is making ppl squint hard enough without seeing the whole picture of risk.   The IND local radio put up a timeline on hard facts everyone should read 2-3x if they think a 1st or more is worth the risk there.  

http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/andrew-luck-one-year-removed-right-shoulder-surgery

The above doesn’t even account for the fact that Luck is way behind normal recovery - and the fact that they waited 2 years to fix the injury.  None of the good cases waited that long or fell behind schedule like this.   Add in the fact that Luck’s last statement was on whether or not he’d need more surgery - and that he and the Colts have made 3 incorrect statements on timeline already.  

Peyton only cost $ no picks , his contract was structured it could go year to year, and he was on schedule from the operation - just no one had ever returned from that surgery.   

No doubt we need a franchise QB.  But desperation doesn’t justify the risk here.  It’s at a cataclysmic level (potential career-ender) here.   Easy pass given the risk profile here.  

A M E N

To me its certifiably insane to even think of trading 1.05 for Luck with all we know of the injury. Its a freaking season plus ending throwing shoulder injury with no end in sight.

Even if the debate isn't Luck for 1.05 or sign Cousins, even if Cousins isn't an option, I still wouldn't make a move for Luck.

We are talking a potential Brandon Roy, elite to out-of-the-league overnight type issue here. Calculated risks are great, but using our franchise building, hopefully once-in-a-decade top 5 pick to trade for a QB who hasn't proven to be able to throw a football in over a year is INSANE. Especially when you can get a guy one tier below and not deal that pick. And that tier below guy is healthy.

 

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2 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

A M E N

To me its certifiably insane to even think of trading 1.05 for Luck with all we know of the injury. Its a freaking season plus ending throwing shoulder injury with no end in sight.

Even if the debate isn't Luck for 1.05 or sign Cousins, even if Cousins isn't an option, I still wouldn't make a move for Luck.

We are talking a potential Brandon Roy, elite to out-of-the-league overnight type issue here. Calculated risks are great, but using our franchise building, hopefully once-in-a-decade top 5 pick to trade for a QB who hasn't proven to be able to throw a football in over a year is INSANE. Especially when you can get a guy one tier below and not deal that pick. And that tier below guy is healthy.

 

To contrast so ppl understand the diff - if Andrew Luck had the same injury / timing as Carson Wentz and could miss the first month+ - I’d have zero hesitation to make the deal.  IND would probably laugh at that offer with an ACL injury.   Because the risk profile long term says ACL recovery for a QB is a matter of time.    But this injury and this recovery?  This has real career-ending risk.  

When having setbacks happens in all other throwing sports with this injury - it’s a career ender.   Football outcomes have been better when a normal recovery is seen after surgery is done early (Brees) or a minor repair is done again early after injury (Cam) but Luck’s original injury was 2 years prior and allowed to just get slowly worse and chronically damaged and he is way behind schedule.    Add it all up insane is a good term for the level of risk here. 

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6 minutes ago, The Helicopter said:

I wouldn’t trade a pick for Luck, but i’d be willing to do a QB swap...Brissitt will need a backup

Their new GM Ballard has been very good so far - there isn’t likely a deal he makes at a huge discount because they are already pot committed.   If Luck does recover completely even if it takes another 1+ season of recovery they are better off than selling at a discount.   They have no illusions of contention this upcoming year - so they aren’t nearly as pressed to deal Luck.  

We and every other team don’t have to assume the risk they are saddled with.  It would be certifiable to pay full price.   With 90M of cap space though and the fact IND has waited this long no sense for them to sell at a discount.  The return isn’t worth it to them.   Just as it’s insane on our or any other team to pay it.   That’s why these deals are so rare, notwithstanding the obstacles cap management presents.  

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10 hours ago, germ-x said:

I definitely get that picking top 5 you’re wanting to select a franchise player.  Obviously with that high a pick you need to hit on it with an elite player regardless of position.

I know you’re a big Nelson fan, as am I.  I also think he’s the safest pick in the top 10, but that’s because at worst I see him as an average OG. But an average he’ll even above average OG at #5 is a terrible selection.  It’s not a game changing position, so taking an OG top 5 he better be one of the top 2-3 at his position for the majority of his career.

I know, I know, he’s being touted as the best OG in a decade, but there have been plenty of highly thought of offensive lineman selected top 5 who haven’t panned our.  Robert Gallery, Luke Joeckel, Mike Williams, Levi Brown, Matt Kalil, Jason Smith, Greg Robinson, and hell even Eric Fisher.

Further, if you really look at it, I don’t think anyone would ever say, “man our OT or our OG was the biggest difference in our team being good or bad.”

You want a true difference maker with that type of pick.  OLs just don’t fit that bill.  If Denver stays at #5 I think it’s a long shot they take an OG.  Maybe an OT because they’re so much harder to find, but I even think that’s a stretch if a QB, Barkley, Chubb, or Fitzpatrick is on the board.  Those positions just impact the game so much more.  If they do end up going Nelson, and I’ve said this before, Elway will be sitting there thinking what a terrible year to have a top 5 pick with an OG being hands down the BPA.

I’ve also seen some posts about top 5 picks at QB that have been successful.  The last time a top 5 pick along the OL was on their original team and won a SB was 20 years ago and was Orlando Pace with the Rams.  There’s actually only been 2 since Elway was drafted in ‘83 and it was Jonathan Ogden and Pace.  Not exactly a strong track record.

Once again. lots of things we can do there. We can take BPA who would be Nelson or Smith probably, we can trade down a bit get another 2nd rd pick (maybe a 1st next year), maybe snag Williams, lots of things we can do. The one thing I don't want to see is us reaching for a skill player, hoping he'll work out.

You mentioned Matt Kalil. Never was the best but he's been a solid 5 year starter at LT with the number 4 pick in 2012. The "difference maker" selections that year were Luck, Griffin, and Richardson at 1,2 and 3 with Blackmon at #5.

All but Luck never really had an impact and are out of the league now.

As far as Nelson, you're under rating his floor. He's dominated everyone he's played, not just beat 'em, abused 'em. I get a bit excited thinking about a pairing of he and Bolles on the left side for the next decade or so. Especially now that we've hired some tutors as coaches on the OL.

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Saquon Barkley and Will Hernandez is my dream first two picks if Cousins is signed. Nelson looks like a transcendent talent but Hernandez seems to be a plug-and-play solid starter in his own right. And this offense is desperate for a playmaker to run through. DT can't be an offense's focal point anymore.

The question to me is what Cleveland does at #4 if they go QB at #1. I'm not convinced the Giants don't pick Darnold/Rosen. What I expect to be Cleveland's choice between Fitzpatrick and Barkley reminds me of Dallas' choice between Ramsey and Elliott. 

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3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Saquon Barkley and Will Hernandez is my dream first two picks if Cousins is signed. Nelson looks like a transcendent talent but Hernandez seems to be a plug-and-play solid starter in his own right. And this offense is desperate for a playmaker to run through. DT can't be an offense's focal point anymore.

The question to me is what Cleveland does at #4 if they go QB at #1. I'm not convinced the Giants don't pick Darnold/Rosen. What I expect to be Cleveland's choice between Fitzpatrick and Barkley reminds me of Dallas' choice between Ramsey and Elliott. 

I keep hearing clevland is gonna go Josh Allen. If that's the case and Darnold or Rosen fall to 5 isnt that a no brainer?

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7 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Once again. lots of things we can do there. We can take BPA who would be Nelson or Smith probably, we can trade down a bit get another 2nd rd pick (maybe a 1st next year), maybe snag Williams, lots of things we can do. The one thing I don't want to see is us reaching for a skill player, hoping he'll work out.

You mentioned Matt Kalil. Never was the best but he's been a solid 5 year starter at LT with the number 4 pick in 2012. The "difference maker" selections that year were Luck, Griffin, and Richardson at 1,2 and 3 with Blackmon at #5.

All but Luck never really had an impact and are out of the league now.

As far as Nelson, you're under rating his floor. He's dominated everyone he's played, not just beat 'em, abused 'em. I get a bit excited thinking about a pairing of he and Bolles on the left side for the next decade or so. Especially now that we've hired some tutors as coaches on the OL.

Oh I agree.  Denver could do a lot of different things with that pick.

I guess my point is if there is a chance to get a player at a position that makes more of an impact on the outcome of a game every Sunday, that should be the pick.

I love Quenton Nelson as well and I am by no means saying he isn’t one of the top players in the draft, he definitely is.  However, I’m also saying that we’ve all heard this before, an OL being the best one to enter the draft in years and then coming to the NFL and being average or worse. Robert Gallery is probably the biggest.  Literally the prototype for a LT, was touted as the best LT in years, and carved out an average career.  Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack a few years ago were touted as the best OGs in years, both selected top 10, and neither has lived up to that selection.

So it’s not like Nelson doesn’t come with some risk.  Is it as big as a QB? No, and I think Nelson is probably the safest pick Denver could make.  But Nelson is by no means a lock to be an all-pro OG.  While he dominated most games, he also showed some flaws, especially VS Miami who did a lot of stunting and delayed blitzes, a defense with speed across the board.  Nelson didn’t get beat like a drum, but he wasn’t dominant either and his lateral agility and ability in space looked overmatched at times.

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11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Their new GM Ballard has been very good so far - there isn’t likely a deal he makes at a huge discount because they are already pot committed.   If Luck does recover completely even if it takes another 1+ season of recovery they are better off than selling at a discount.   They have no illusions of contention this upcoming year - so they aren’t nearly as pressed to deal Luck.  

We and every other team don’t have to assume the risk they are saddled with.  It would be certifiable to pay full price.   With 90M of cap space though and the fact IND has waited this long no sense for them to sell at a discount.  The return isn’t worth it to them.   Just as it’s insane on our or any other team to pay it.   That’s why these deals are so rare, notwithstanding the obstacles cap management presents.  

Yeah, but it’s McDisaster we’re talking about here...A total wild card when we thought our franchise was great and had a young QB w/lots of talent and wasn’t even injured. I’m still liking our chances...

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3 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

I. do. not. want. Cousins. I just don't think he's that good of a player for us to pay 30 mil a year. I'd rather roll with one of the young guys in the draft.

I completely get this.  Trust me, as much as anyone I’d like to get a 21-22 year old QB that will lead the franchise for the next 15 years. 

But, as a GM/coach, often times you don’t get to wait 3-4 years for it to start panning out.  Personally, I don’t think Elway’s job is under fire, like some.  I think Elway can basically hold that position for as long as he wants.  He’s just meant to much to this franchise, after Pat Bowlen, Elway is the most influential person to ever be a part of this organization.

However, we all know Elway’s competitiveness and I don’t see him being patient in getting this franchise back in the playoffs and relevant again.  Kirk Cousins is the quickest way to get there.  If he hits the market, Elway will make a STRONG push for him.  If he doesn’t I fully expect Denver to do what it takes to get a Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.  Hell maybe even Mayfield.

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5 hours ago, germ-x said:

I completely get this.  Trust me, as much as anyone I’d like to get a 21-22 year old QB that will lead the franchise for the next 15 years. 

But, as a GM/coach, often times you don’t get to wait 3-4 years for it to start panning out.  Personally, I don’t think Elway’s job is under fire, like some.  I think Elway can basically hold that position for as long as he wants.  He’s just meant to much to this franchise, after Pat Bowlen, Elway is the most influential person to ever be a part of this organization.

However, we all know Elway’s competitiveness and I don’t see him being patient in getting this franchise back in the playoffs and relevant again.  Kirk Cousins is the quickest way to get there.  If he hits the market, Elway will make a STRONG push for him.  If he doesn’t I fully expect Denver to do what it takes to get a Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.  Hell maybe even Mayfield.

I agree he goes after him I just hope John is smarter than that. I mean look at the qbs who got injured this year. Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, Desean Watson.  That's arguably 4 top 10 qbs in the Nfl. I can't remember a year where that happened in the NFL.

Then you start to break things down. Does Jacksonville  even make the playoffs with a healthy luck and watson in the division? Got to imagine they don't sweep the Colts with a healthy luck. Not sure when they played the texans. There is a good chance Tennessee and Jacksonville don't make the postseason. At least 1 wouldn't make it.

Then you look at the NFC and Wentz put the eagles in prime position for that number 1 seed. You can't undersell the impact that has had. Philly is a crazy environment.  With Wentz they're 4 point favorites this week instead they're 3 point dogs. 

I think the only qbs worth 30 mill are the ones that have a huge impact on the spread 5 to 6 points. Guys like Brees, Rodgers, Wentz, Brady, Stafford. We got to hope Elway doesn't look at the Vikings adnormal model and hope he gets his Case  Keenum in Kirk Cousins. 

I think Elways end of the year presser is so encouraging. I will say this if you haven't seen it watch it. Elway really looks and sounds like a guy who doesn't think this team is one offseason away. If that is the case I think  he balks at Cousins. 

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A couple things in response to some posts in here:

Trading 1.5 for Luck would be one of the worst moves we could make, IMO. The risk is too high. Why would anyone trust his shoulder at this point? We have no idea what Andrew Luck will be post injury. An injury, by the way, that has taken 2 years (and still going) to heal. McDaniels going to IND isn't an accident. I would be willing to bet he wants to work with Luck and if not, will get the chance to draft his own QB.

Second, I love Quenton Nelson, but if we draft him I hope it's after a small trade down. I think we'd be better served to pick up an extra pick and try and snag him vs. passing up Fitzpatrick or Chubb or an OT, who would represent better positional value. Personally, I'm of the opinion the Broncos will try and go with Connor McGovern. Elway eluded to better coaching and development. McGovern had some moments- I could see them giving him an audition. 

One thing that has been very intriguing to me is a trade with the Bills. It would be more drastic, but they have 1.21 and 1.22 this year and they covet a QB. I could see a trade for 1.21, 1.22, and either next years 1 or 2. It could very well happen if the Bills fall in love with a QB enough. 

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One thing that hasn't been discussed yet shockingly is the idea of landing leveon bell. A lot of posters have said they'd love to get Cousins and Barkley in the draft.  But what about a instant offense type rb with a young and up and coming qb through the draft? Maybe we give bell a 4 year 40 mill dollar deal?

I don't think Pittsburgh retains him. Skipping walkthroughs and complaining about the contract the week of a game I think both sides mutually part ways.

 

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