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thebestever6

Is the Qb situation good enough?

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34 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

What if Cleveland throws that kind of money at Cousins?  They have a much better offensive line, which it seems like he needs to thrive...he didn't fair well this year behind the Redskin's make shift line...their line might have been worse than ours.  I am just saying, Cousins could walk into the same money, behind a better line, and the Browns have two top five picks to build that team.  

I am hoping and praying Cousins goes there. 

I know Cousins said he would entertain the idea of playing in Cleveland but to me that's just talk to help inflate his market.  Under that ownership and Hue Jackson that franchise hasn't moved forward with a lot of very early picks used.  I can't imagine a player in demand would choose to go there if the money is similar.  Cleveland would have to really set the market IMO to get Cousins.

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What if Cleveland throws that kind of money at Cousins?  They have a much better offensive line, which it seems like he needs to thrive...he didn't fair well this year behind the Redskin's make shift line...their line might have been worse than ours.  I am just saying, Cousins could walk into the same money, behind a better line, and the Browns have two top five picks to build that team.  

I am hoping and praying Cousins goes there. 

While their OL is near elite on paper, it didn't mesh overly well this season. There is a disease to that franchise that is beyond explanation and unless they offer more money than anyone, I don't see Cousins going there. If the money is the same, can you really expect Kirk to choose CLE over DEN? I just don't think anyone in their right mind would do so. Cousins could come here and become the third head on our Mt Rushmore of QB's after Elway and Peyton. This city treats good QB's like dieties, and when Elway brings Cousins in he will make that known.

I hope he cost closer to 25M than 30M, but in the end success is measured not even in wins, but in championships, in Denver. Elway has had two subpar seasons and the pitchforks are being sharpened. This fanbase is rabid and expects a TON from their Broncos, and even our HOF QB isn't going to be safe from three poor seasons. Elway understands legacy, understands his job is on the line and that if he doesn't find a franchise guy sooner (IE: This offseason) rather than later, people will remember his inability to get a signal caller almost as much as they remember SB 50. Its clearly going to be Kirk, with outside chances at Rosen/Darnold.

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28 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

While their OL is near elite on paper, it didn't mesh overly well this season. There is a disease to that franchise that is beyond explanation and unless they offer more money than anyone, I don't see Cousins going there. If the money is the same, can you really expect Kirk to choose CLE over DEN? I just don't think anyone in their right mind would do so. Cousins could come here and become the third head on our Mt Rushmore of QB's after Elway and Peyton. This city treats good QB's like dieties, and when Elway brings Cousins in he will make that known.

I hope he cost closer to 25M than 30M, but in the end success is measured not even in wins, but in championships, in Denver. Elway has had two subpar seasons and the pitchforks are being sharpened. This fanbase is rabid and expects a TON from their Broncos, and even our HOF QB isn't going to be safe from three poor seasons. Elway understands legacy, understands his job is on the line and that if he doesn't find a franchise guy sooner (IE: This offseason) rather than later, people will remember his inability to get a signal caller almost as much as they remember SB 50. Its clearly going to be Kirk, with outside chances at Rosen/Darnold.

If you think Cousins can be on the Mt. Rushmore...then Jake Plummer needs to be there.  I just don't think Cousins is that good...he is a middle tier QB that will get you to the playoffs and maybe win a playoff game every now and then...I don't think he takes the Broncos to the Super Bowl.  For that, the Broncos have to either draft a QB and hope he becomes elite...IF available...and IF the Broncos are going to throw $25-$30MM around...at least get Brees for a year or two.  

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18 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If you think Cousins can be on the Mt. Rushmore...then Jake Plummer needs to be there.  I just don't think Cousins is that good...he is a middle tier QB that will get you to the playoffs and maybe win a playoff game every now and then...I don't think he takes the Broncos to the Super Bowl.  For that, the Broncos have to either draft a QB and hope he becomes elite...IF available...and IF the Broncos are going to throw $25-$30MM around...at least get Brees for a year or two.  

I disagree on Cousins being middle tier but even if he is a regular playoff QB.  In 3 years who is he going to be going against?  Big Ben, Brady and Rivers are all on the end of their careers.  So that leaves Carr, Luck, Watson, Mariota, Flacco, Eli if JAX goes that way, Tannehill, Tyrod?, Smith?  and maybe Darnold Rosen or one of these rookies.  

 

Frankly I think there's about to be a power vacuum at the top of the AFC that with Cousins and a good draft Denver could take advantage of.  It's also why I see JAX going hard after Eli to try and use that elite D to win a Superbowl before the salary cap catches up to them.

 

Add Cousins, draft well with the top few picks and Denver will be right back to prominence.

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Just so we understand the context here:

WAS 2017:

24th ranked OL in pass pro, 21st in run blocking by DVOA

No WR's in top 50 except Crowder in 40's, No TE's in top 30 (because Jordan Reed missed over half of season)

No RB's in top 30 for rushing, a top 10 RB in pass-catching who missed last 6 games of season. 

NET result - 28th ranked running game, 14th ranked passing game by DVOA

Opposition faced W-L pct - .538 (4th hardest)


DEN 2017:

28th ranked OL in pass pro, 9th in run blocking by DVOA

DT & Sanders perennial top 30 guys (Sanders injuries did knock him out of the top 50 this year, though), no TE's in top 30

CJ Anderson wasn't elite, but was a top 30 RB, while Devontae Booker was ranked as a top 25 RB in pass-catching despite limited use (JC incidentally #48...smh).

NET result - 23rd ranked rush game, and 31st ranked passing game by DVOA.

Opposition faced W-L pct - .492 (19th hardest)

 

And before ppl state it's just numbers, the eye test bears the same result - WAS lost 3 starters for more than half a season on their OL.   In the 1H, Cousins and the WAS O were better, but the fact is that Cousins is the SOLE reason why their pass game still functioned - no OL, no RB, no WR, no TE.  ZERO run game - which meant D's just focused on stopping Cousins.   Literally the only part of that O.   Meanwhile, while our pass pro stunk, we had a better OL run game, and we had better RB/WR's (except for Chris Thompson in pass catching, who missed almost half the season).   We also faced much weaker competition than WAS did overall.   And yet our pass game was abysmal, and WAS still was 14th...and again, solely because of Cousins. 

People who think Cousins is a middle-tier QB aren't paying attention - the numbers alone don't support it, watch the games and you see it was literally all him every game.  He made other guys around him better.   Not the other way around.   I don't know if he's at A-Rod / Brees peak level when they were at their best, but he's IMO a no-doubt 3-4W QB - WAS is a 3-4 W team without him this year.    The SEA, DEN & LAR wins were all on him, and frankly, he had the NO road W all on his shoulders, until the Skins as a team choked it away (up 14 pts with ball with less than 6 mins left - first time a team has lost in that situation, apparently).  

I still don't know if Cousins will pick us as his 1st choice, or if WAS changes course and tags him, and I certainly have no faith that we can fix the other holes if we have to commit 25-30M annually (as Cousins alone isn't good enough to get us to the playoffs, but he can get us to 8-9W from a 5W team).   But he belongs in the top 6-7 QB easily, IMO...especially when you consider the guys who are going to be done in the next 1-2 years (or at least, will likely be off that top tier).  

Edited by Broncofan

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Just so we understand the context here:

WAS 2017:

24th ranked OL in pass pro, 21st in run blocking by DVOA

No WR's in top 50 except Crowder in 40's, No TE's in top 30 (because Jordan Reed missed over half of season)

No RB's in top 30 for rushing, a top 10 RB in pass-catching who missed last 6 games of season. 

NET result - 28th ranked running game, 14th ranked passing game by DVOA

Opposition faced W-L pct - .538 (4th hardest)


DEN 2017:

28th ranked OL in pass pro, 9th in run blocking by DVOA

DT & Sanders perennial top 30 guys (Sanders injuries did knock him out of the top 50 this year, though), no TE's in top 30

CJ Anderson wasn't elite, but was a top 30 RB, while Devontae Booker was ranked as a top 25 RB in pass-catching despite limited use (JC incidentally #48...smh).

NET result - 23rd ranked rush game, and 31st ranked passing game by DVOA.

Opposition faced W-L pct - .492 (19th hardest)

 

And before ppl state it's just numbers, the eye test bears the same result - WAS lost 3 starters for more than half a season on their OL.   In the 1H, Cousins and the WAS O were better, but the fact is that Cousins is the SOLE reason why their pass game still functioned - no OL, no RB, no WR, no TE.   Literally the only part of that O.   Meanwhile, while our pass pro stunk, we had a better OL run game, and we had better RB/WR's (except for Chris Thompson in pass catching, who missed almost half the season).   We also faced much weaker competition than WAS did overall.   And yet our pass game was abysmal, and WAS still was 14th...and again, solely because of Cousins. 

People who think Cousins is a middle-tier QB aren't paying attention - the numbers alone don't support it, watch the games and you see it was literally all him every game.  He made other guys around him better.   Not the other way around.   I don't know if he's at A-Rod / Brees peak level when they were at their best, but he's IMO a no-doubt 3-4W QB - WAS is a 3-4 W team without him this year.    The SEA, DEN & LAR wins were all on him, and frankly, he had the NO road W all on his shoulders, until the Skins as a team choked it away (up 14 pts with ball with less than 6 mins left - first time a team has lost in that situation, apparently).  

I still don't know if Cousins will pick us as his 1st choice, or if WAS changes course and tags him, and I certainly have no faith that we can fix the other holes if we have to commit 25-30M annually (as Cousins alone isn't good enough to get us to the playoffs, but he can get us to 8-9W from a 5W team).   But he belongs in the top 6-7 QB easily, IMO...especially when you consider the guys who are going to be done in the next 1-2 years (or at least, will likely be off that top tier).  

What's there to say he does it in our system? Jay Gruden is not chopped liver. Sean Mccvay isn't either and I saw a droppoff even before all of the injuries. I really think kubiak was brought in to find a franchise qb with elway, and Joseph was retain so we can coach the senior bowl.  

I just don't see them dishing out 25 mill a year rather than homegrow their own guy. A drafted player would be cheap fpr at least 4 years that itself extends championship windows.

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32 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

What's there to say he does it in our system? Jay Gruden is not chopped liver. Sean Mccvay isn't either and I saw a droppoff even before all of the injuries. I really think kubiak was brought in to find a franchise qb with elway, and Joseph was retain so we can coach the senior bowl.  

I just don't see them dishing out 25 mill a year rather than homegrow their own guy. A drafted player would be cheap fpr at least 4 years that itself extends championship windows.

A drafted guy like Lynch?  Or Bortles?  Or Gabbert (I chose Bortles & Gabbert since they were earlier Rd1 picks that failed).   That's the rub.    Draft a cheap salary QB, even in Round 1, and all is good with the world.  Draft a bust that you feel compelled to reach for out of need, and you set the team back 2-3 years minimum (and you multiply it for each extra pick you trade to get him, too).

I'm all for cheap home grown talent - it's why I keep pounding the table for Elway to draft well (and that starts with overall BPA, and not reaching for specific guys no matter how the boards is falling).  Our failure to draft cheap talent is why we are in this current mess.   But honestly, if we don't get Darnold or Rosen (and I'm basing that on the premise that Darnold's hands aren't midget like), then it's a huge Q mark IMO.   I share the concern that @AKRNA has expressed to a stronger degree about allocating $ to QB that much, too.    But just because the $ is risky for anyone, let's not confuse the arguments on Cousins talent-wise.   Eye-test and team-based metrics say he's already in the top tier.    He's just not cheap...which then means we have to find value elsewhere - and lately, that's been a major problem.  

I don't even know if Cousins will choose us, or if WAS will let him go, or if Elway can turn around our draft woes in 1 draft to fill the other gaps we'd need to close to complete the turnaround for 2018 - but I have zero doubts barring new injury, that Cousins is a 3-4W QB DWAR-wise.   

On 1/9/2018 at 12:56 PM, thebestever6 said:

They're gonna start trade talks asap Cousins has potentially 9 teams that will bid for his services. If the franchise offer is what it takes so be it. The fact is they aren't gonna let Cousins walk out the door into the sunset a free man. He will command 2 high picks like a first and second minimum. That's a rabbit hole not ideal to go down.

And remember - you yourself said multiple teams would be trying to trade for him (which can't happen when a player isn't under contract, and a tag that's unsigned doesn't qualify, so it's moot) - are you now saying all those 9 teams are desperate for a middle-tier QB, and were set to give up 2 high picks, for a non-elite QB?  Your very own prior arguments contradict yourself.    Again, don't let me convince you - your own post ranks Cousins as an elite-level QB.

Edited by Broncofan

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28 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

A drafted guy like Lynch?  Or Bortles?  Or Gabbert (I chose Bortles & Gabbert since they were earlier picks that failed).   That's the rub.    Draft a cheap salary QB, even in Round 1, and all is good with the world.  Draft a bust that you feel compelled to reach for out of need, and you set the team back 2-3 years minimum (and you multiply it for each extra pick you trade to get him, too).

I'm all for cheap home grown talent - it's why I keep pounding the table for Elway to draft well (and that starts with overall BPA, and not reaching for specific guys no matter how the boards is falling).  Our failure to draft cheap talent is why we are in this current mess.   But honestly, if we don't get Darnold or Rosen (and I'm basing that on the premise that Darnold's hands aren't midget like), then it's a huge Q mark IMO.   I share the concern that @AKRNA has expressed to a stronger degree about allocating $ to QB that much, too.    But just because the $ is risky for anyone, let's not confuse the arguments on Cousins talent-wise.   Eye-test and team-based metrics say he's already in the top tier.    He's just not cheap...which then means we have to find value elsewhere - and lately, that's been a major problem.  

I don't even know if Cousins will choose us, or if WAS will let him go, or if Elway can turn around our draft woes in 1 draft to fill the other gaps we'd need to close to complete the turnaround for 2018 - but I have zero doubts barring new injury, that Cousins is a 3-4W QB DWAR-wise.   

And remember - you yourself said multiple teams would be trying to trade for him (which can't happen when a player isn't under contract, and a tag that's unsigned doesn't qualify, so it's moot) - are you now saying all those 9 teams are desperate for a middle-tier QB, and were set to give up 2 high picks, for a non-elite QB?  Your very own prior arguments contradict yourself.    Again, don't let me convince you - your own post ranks Cousins as an elite-level QB.

I'm not contradicting myself 9 teams potentially bid for his services he still could be middle pack those 9 situations are just that bad. And making such a move screams to desperation as much as drafting one would.

And I do think he ends up getting traded which brings his market down to two or 3 teams that's why he mentions Clevland. 

Edited by thebestever6

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1 minute ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm not contradicting myself 9 teams potentially bid for his services he still could be middle pack those 9 situations are just that bad. And making such a move screams to desperation as much as drafting one would.

9 teams drop a FIRST AND A SECOND and he's middle tier?  And costs 25M AAV?   Dude, listen to yourself.    

Edited by Broncofan

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

9 teams drop a FIRST AND A SECOND and he's middle tier?  And costs 25M AAV?   Dude, listen to yourself.  

The market will dwindle down once the trade demands are set to 2 to 3 teams won't be nearly the 9 number. That nine number comes from him being a true free agent.

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7 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

The market will dwindle down once the trade demands are set to 2 to 3 teams won't be nearly the 9 number. That nine number comes from him being a true free agent.

No team drops a 1st and a 2nd round pick for a guy who costs 25M AAV for a mid-tier QB.    Logic fallacy.

Edited by Broncofan

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5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

No team drops a 1st and a 2nd round pick for a guy who costs 25M AAV for a mid-tier QB.    Logic fallacy.

A desperate team does there hasn't been many situations like a kirk cousins. Cutler is probably the closest I've seen.

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2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

A desperate team does there hasn't been many situations like a kirk cousins. Cutler is probably the closest I've seen.

Just curious if he’s middle tier who is above him?

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33 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Just curious if he’s middle tier who is above him?

Brady, Wentz, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, Wilson, Stafford, Big Ben, Luck, Rivers, Newton

All for sure bonafide Than I'd take Goff, Mariota, Presscott for his price think they're the same guy just Presscott throws less picks, Eli ( his line has been worse than Cousins last year and he was down all his weapons. So he's 16 in my book. 

In the Flacco Alex Smith range.  Who you could make the case for they have both won playoff games and Flacco a superbowl.  I think 16 is fair you can move him as high as 12.

I'm omitting Watson and Mahomes not large enough sample size you can make the case moving forward they're better. Watson was lighting it up.

Kirk Cousins honestly hasn't proven to to have a moderate gap above a guy like Andy Dalton to be honest.

Edited by thebestever6

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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Brady, Wentz, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, Wilson, Stafford, Big Ben, Luck, Rivers, Newton

All for sure bonafide Than I'd take Goff, Mariota, Presscott for his price think they're the same guy just Presscott throws less picks, Eli ( his line has been worse than Cousins last year and he was down all his weapons. So he's 16 in my book. 

In the Flacco Alex Smith range.  Who you could make the case for they have both won playoff games and Flacco a superbowl.  I think 16 is fair you can move him as high as 12.

I'm omitting Watson and Mahomes not large enough sample size you can make the case moving forward they're better. Watson was lighting it up.

Kirk Cousins honestly hasn't proven to to have a moderate gap above a guy like Andy Dalton to be honest.

Aside from the fact that Dalton has AJ green and Cousins best WR is Crowder the super bowl is the goal. 

 

Brady, Big Ben and rivers are all on the downside of their careers.   

That leaves Luck and mariota from your list in the AFC.  And who knows if luck is the guy he once was or more Chad Pennington.

 

Getting cousins a proven commodity along with some good drafts could cement Denver in the class of the AFC for the next 5-7 years and I would put money on elway thinking the same 

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