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gopherwrestler

GWT: Week 19 Titans @ Patriots

GWT: Week 19 Titans @ Patriots   

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  1. 1. Who Wins?



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Posted (edited)

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     Titans                   Patriots

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

Sat, 1/13, 7:15 PM

Watch On: CBS

 

X's & O's from @Hunter2_1

TEN linebackers and safeties have struggled against tight ends and running backs in the passing games. in DVOA, they are 24th against tight ends and dead last against running backs. The Titans roll out one inside linebacker that plays almost all of defensive snaps (Wesley Woodyard, 93% of snaps) and rotates their other two guys in Avery Williamson (60%) and Javon Brown (45%). These 3 aren't necessarily known for coverage (is this fair @TitanLegend ?) and Gronkowski, Lewis and Rex should all have favorable matchups. 

Rich Hill writes that we might expect a defense that’s similar in terms of scheme to the Steelers defense that we saw this year. Both of those defenses...

Play a primary 3-4, with a DE being their best front 7 player (Cam Heyward/Jurrell Casey)

Will play ~2/3rds of snaps in man coverage (Although Pitts changed this for us)

Will drop an OLB into coverage a lot more than expected (TJ Watt/Erik Walden)

Will have a designated deep safety on ~90% of the snaps (Mike Mitchell/Kevin Byard)

Don’t have a single player on their roster that can match up with Gronk in man coverage (no one does, tbf, apart from Berry...)

 

I think we may employ a similar gameplan to when we faced Denver. We used heavy set a lot (our FB played 64% of snaps, when usually he plays very little). The Patriots did not want to have to face Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., and Bradley Roby at the same time and loved the matchups against the Broncos’ linebackers. With TEN linebackers not proving their worth covering RB and TEs, I think we may try and keep 3 linebackers on the field again. Vs Denver, we saw;

Brady targeting running backs or tight ends 19 times (53%). Wide receivers not named Brandin Cooks got six total targets

Brady, when targeting running backs or tight ends: 16/20 for 177 and three touchdowns; passer rating of 143.1

Bradley Roby played 41% of defensive snaps, his lowest mark of the season - showing that we kept it in tight

 

Edited by gopherwrestler

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Patriots 31, Titans 21

The 13½ point line feels too high to me without knowing how healthy the Pats will be.

But given the makeup of the Titans' defense and the success Brady has had against LeBeau's schemes in the past, I don't think the Titans will have the horses to keep up.

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Posted (edited)

feel like its going to be one of those games where the titans will have a shot but will keep on shooting themselves in the foot

pats pull away and win with a score like 34-17

Edited by August4th

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To stand any chance we have to sustain long drives(like 7+ minutes) that end in TDs, not FGs. Going to need Henry to repeat his wildcard performance and Marcus to be Super Mariota. Got to limit as many possession for Brady and company as we can.

 

Not feeling great about this game and we'd have to play a near perfect game but it is doable. If we were to pull off the W, it'd have to go down as one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.

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Patriots last two Super Bowl runs. 

-tough divisional round game against an opponent who over performs

-conference tite game against a team considered capable of defeating the Patriots that ends in a route. 

- super bowl against the proverbial favorite in the NFC that is extremely tight and ends in a miracle. 

Pats by 9

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will it be really windy?

will lebeau play his zones - if he does the pats by 20+ regardless of the weather

If it's really windy and LeBeau plays man coverage and the titans stay with the running game, it could be a decent game. 

This game will let the steelers know how to play on D, a nice way to learn since we had titans DC at one time

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3 minutes ago, lancerman said:

-conference tite game against a team considered capable of defeating the Patriots that ends in a route. 

C'mon, man. Nobody thought the Colts were capable of beating the Pats. 

Nobody would even remember that game if it hadn't been for Ballghazi.

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Just now, Starless said:

C'mon, man. Nobody thought the Colts were capable of beating the Pats. 

Nobody would even remember that game if it hadn't been for Ballghazi.

They did after Peyton supposedly passed the torch to Luck and he was destined. They hyped the hell out of it. Those in the know saw it coming a mile away.

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Marcus Mariota can make some plays with his legs and extend plays, so that might be the scariest thing the Pats have to deal with.  Henry could have a good game here, but I expect the Pats to focus on denying the Titans running game as much as possible.  Even if the Titans lose badly, this will be a good experience for them going forward.

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1 minute ago, lancerman said:

They did after Peyton supposedly passed the torch to Luck and he was destined. They hyped the hell out of it. Those in the know saw it coming a mile away.

Andrew Luck's Colts had lost their three previous games against the Pats by a combined score of 144-66. If anyone claims they thought the Colts had a chance in that game, they're lying.

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Just now, Starless said:

Andrew Luck's Colts had lost their three previous games against the Pats by a combined score of 144-66. If anyone claims they thought the Colts had a chance in that game, they're lying.

Then you didn't watch most of the build up and media coverage to that game. Once the Colts beat the Broncos a lot of people thought started hyping it as the year Luck had a chance to take the next step.

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Just now, lancerman said:

Then you didn't watch most of the build up and media coverage to that game. Once the Colts beat the Broncos a lot of people thought started hyping it as the year Luck had a chance to take the next step.

They were all lying.

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