2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[Kenrik]

On 10/16/2017 at 1:10 PM, Pad Level said:

I don't see it that way at all.  It's hard, very hard to get a franchise qb.  Look at Miami, Minnesota, Chicago, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa, Jets, Bills,  San Fran, Kansas City,  Tennessee, Oakland, Washington,  Baltimore, Jacksonville.  All of these teams have one thing in common,  they haven't had a franchise qb in decades.  I don't want the Packers to join those ranks when Rodgers hangs them up.  

 

18 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

More than half of those teams have a QB good enough. 

 

One of those teams you listed has just as many SBs as GB this decade. ha

[pollino14]

So I think WR is going to be a top priority this off-season. Who are some 1st-2nd round guys that I should be looking at? Ridley is the only one who comes to mind for me right now. 

[MacReady]

10 minutes ago, pollino14 said:

So I think WR is going to be a top priority this off-season. Who are some 1st-2nd round guys that I should be looking at? Ridley is the only one who comes to mind for me right now. 

Is this just making fun of me or would you seriously want the Packers to use the highest first round draft pick they've had since Raji to take a wide receiver? 

[pollino14]

23 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Is this just making fun of me or would you seriously want the Packers to use the highest first round draft pick they've had since Raji to take a wide receiver? 

Lol nah. I actually think WR is going to be a huge need for us in the near future. Jordy is losing a step, Cobb is below average to average, Allison has promise but is unproven. Alls we would have is Adams, and he's a FA after this year.

 

I honestly think an edge rusher and WR are our two biggest needs this off-season.

[MacReady]

Just now, pollino14 said:

I honestly think an edge rusher and WR are our two biggest needs this off-season.

I think it would be a mistake similar to us taking Mandarich if we were to take a receiver in this coming draft.  Aaron Rodgers would throw for another 500 yards, another 10 touchdowns and a couple less interceptions a year on his way to five or six more early playoff exits while our defense remained a defense without one elite player past the line. 

Edit:
Once you get into the second round, I absolutely agree, but only if it's not a receiver with limitations like we've been taking in the second round.  I don't like how none of our best receivers have true speed and that they all rely on "quickness."  I don't like Cobb going forward at all, I said we shouldn't re-sign him then, people thought I was crazy for not wanting to re-sign Cobb.  "He just had 91 catches, 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns, you're crazy if you don't want us to re-sign him."

I'm crazy for us not wanting to re-sign Adams this year, too.  I think we're going to overpay for him because of how good Rodgers makes him look, just like we did with Cobb.  Adams, to me, is a #2 receiver on every other team.  He's not especially tall, he's not especially fast, he has lapses in concentration and drops a good amount of good passes.  He's got elite quickness and jumping ability, but that's really it, and Aaron knows how to use that well.  I think if Adams was to sign with 26 other teams that don't have elite or a notch below elite QB play, he'd be a 40-60, 600-800 yards and 4-8 touchdowns receiver.  He's REALLY young still, and that just screams to me that it's going to be a situation where we overpay to keep him because of the attention he would get on the open market. 

I think Davante Adams is Rishard Matthews.  Capable of good years, capable of great years, but the circumstances have to be right and the good year is more about the circumstances than the player.  Kinda exactly like Randall Cobb in 2014. 

 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Is this just making fun of me or would you seriously want the Packers to use the highest first round draft pick they've had since Raji to take a wide receiver? 

Fortunately, Ted has shown he's a bit more stingy with his early picks.  Outside of Aaron Rodgers, he's used TWO first round picks on offensive players and both of them were tackles, both had LT potential.  I'd be willing to wager a TON of money on the fact that Thompson will almost assuredly draft a defensive player with their first pick.  My guess is either EDGE or CB.

[vegas492]

"I think Davante Adams is Rishard Matthews.  Capable of good years, capable of great years, but the circumstances have to be right and the good year is more about the circumstances than the player.  Kinda exactly like Randall Cobb in 2014. "

Back when Cobb hit the market, I did an analysis of his catches.  His production came largely on the scramble drill.  He was only going to get those catches in Green Bay with Rodgers.  He wasn't a system wide receiver at all.  

I say that because I think the opposite of Adams.  I think he is a system WR who would actually get better in a different offensive scheme.  As you said, his elite traits don't really translate well into this offense unless he's being targeted consistently on back shoulder throws along the boundary.  I think another team would love to see him on some seam routes, posts...etc.  Routes where he can get deep and use his quickness to get out of his breaks and create separation on timing routes.  I think he would be a world beater with Rodgers in a better, more timing based offense.

[pollino14]

1 hour ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I think it would be a mistake similar to us taking Mandarich if we were to take a receiver in this coming draft.  Aaron Rodgers would throw for another 500 yards, another 10 touchdowns and a couple less interceptions a year on his way to five or six more early playoff exits while our defense remained a defense without one elite player past the line. 

Edit:
Once you get into the second round, I absolutely agree, but only if it's not a receiver with limitations like we've been taking in the second round.  I don't like how none of our best receivers have true speed and that they all rely on "quickness."  I don't like Cobb going forward at all, I said we shouldn't re-sign him then, people thought I was crazy for not wanting to re-sign Cobb.  "He just had 91 catches, 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns, you're crazy if you don't want us to re-sign him."

I'm crazy for us not wanting to re-sign Adams this year, too.  I think we're going to overpay for him because of how good Rodgers makes him look, just like we did with Cobb.  Adams, to me, is a #2 receiver on every other team.  He's not especially tall, he's not especially fast, he has lapses in concentration and drops a good amount of good passes.  He's got elite quickness and jumping ability, but that's really it, and Aaron knows how to use that well.  I think if Adams was to sign with 26 other teams that don't have elite or a notch below elite QB play, he'd be a 40-60, 600-800 yards and 4-8 touchdowns receiver.  He's REALLY young still, and that just screams to me that it's going to be a situation where we overpay to keep him because of the attention he would get on the open market. 

I think Davante Adams is Rishard Matthews.  Capable of good years, capable of great years, but the circumstances have to be right and the good year is more about the circumstances than the player.  Kinda exactly like Randall Cobb in 2014. 

 

1. I honestly don't get the correlation between drafting Tony Mandarich and drafting a WR in the first round.....

 

2. So you think we need help at WR, while getting rid of Cobb AND Nelson and not even considering drafting a WR in round 1. That's very odd and I wouldn't support that decision.

 

Value is value. If a WR is ranked higher than anyone on the board, take him. 

[jontat83]

Edge rusher is our no.1 priority IMO.

I was going to ask how the class will be this draft at that position but I don't know how early we are going to end up picking.

[MacReady]

Just now, pollino14 said:

1. I honestly don't get the correlation between drafting Tony Mandarich and drafting a WR in the first round.....

 

2. So you think we need help at WR, while getting rid of Cobb AND Nelson and not even considering drafting a WR in round 1. That's very odd and I wouldn't support that decision.

 

Value is value. If a WR is ranked higher than anyone on the board, take him. 

Mandarich = Big mistake that hurt our franchise for decades.
WR in top 16 = Big mistake that would hurt our franchise for decades.

Value is NOT value.  A wide receiver has never turned around a team.   EVER. 

You could take the best wide receiver in the NFL and add it to this team.  Let's say Antonio Brown.  Is Antonio Brown going to make a shred of difference when looking at the W/L column at the end of last year's Falcon's game?

The Falcons traded up EVERYTHING to get Julio Jones.  Julio Jones helps them torch us to get to the Super Bowl.  He comes up with what should have been a game winning catch with 4-ish minutes left that put the Falcons in field goal range.  What happens?  The #1 defense in the NFL forces a holding penalty, a loss of a yard to Freeman and a sack that pushes the Falcons out of field goal range, at which point a bunch of late round receivers, a second round tight end and a QB who can use role players come back and win the effing Super Bowl. 

The Patriots have had a first round receiver once.  His name was Randy Moss, he broke the NFL TD record, the Patriots went 18-0, then they dominated the... No, that's not right, the Giants defense held the best thing ever GOAT unstoppable QB Brady to 14 points and the Giants went home with a Super Bowl. 

Without adding an all-pro talent to this defense, we will never win a Super Bowl, and anybody who thinks taking a receiver in the top 16 of this year's draft is neglecting a long, sad history of teams not realizing that wide receiver is LITERALLY the least important position in football because it LITERALLY relies more on every other position than any position in the game.  There isn't a single receiver in this game that can dominate without help from at least six other players. 

There is always a better option that can help a team more than a receiver could. 

ESPECIALLY in the top 16. 

Cooper?  I'll take Scherff or Leonard Williams. 
Kevin White?  I'll take Beasley, Gurley or Waynes.
Devante Parker?  I'll take Gordon, Armstead, Peters.
Watkins?  I'll take Mack or Matthews. 
Evans?  I'll take Barr or Lewan. 
Beckham?  I'll take Donald, Shazier, Mosley or even Martin.  Hell, I'd still take Clinton-Dix over Beckham just because of the BS. 
Blackmon?  I'll take Kuechly or Gilmore.
Floyd?  I'll take Brockers, Irvin, Kirkpatrick, Melvin Ingram. 
Green?  Give me Peterson. 
Julio Jones, with 22 less touchdowns than Nelson (who missed a season) over the span of his career?  Think I'll take Tyron Smith or Watt. 
Heyward-Bey?  I'll take Raji.
Crabtree?  I'll take Orakpo, Jenkins or Cushing. 
Calvin Johnson?  I'll take Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson. 
Ted Gin?  I'll take Patrick Willis or Marshawn Lynch. 
Braylon Edwards?  Adam Jones, Antrell Rolle. 
Troy Williamson?  Lol, literally any of the next 5. 
Mike Williams?  Lol.  The next five all went to pro bowls (Ware, Merriman, Brown, Thomas Davis, Derrick Johnson). 
Larry Fitzgerald?  Rivers is a franchise QB.  Sean Taylor was a generational safety. 
Roy Williams?  Roethlisberger, Dunta Robinson, Hall, Vilma. 
Reggie Williams?  Roethlisberger, Robinson, Vilma, Tommie Harris.
Lee Evans?  Tommie Harris, Shawn Andrews, Will Smith. 
Michael Clayton?  Shawn Andrews, Will Smith.
Charles Rogers?  Andre Johnson (it counts for the point I'm making) and Terence Newman.
Andre Johnson?  Terence Newman, Jordan Gross (all-pro, 3x pro bowl better than fringe HoF WR).
Donte Stallworth?  Albert Haynesworth.
David Terrell/Koren Robinson?  Dan Morgan, Marcus Stroud. 
Rod Gardner/Santana Moss?  Steve hutchinson, Casey Hampton, Nate Clements.
Peter Warrick?  Lol, Jamal Lewis, Corey Simon, Thomas Jones, Brian Urlacher.
Plaxico Burress?  Brian Urlacher, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham. 

That is every top 16 receiver since the turn of the century.  Find another position in the NFL where there was CLEARLY a better option within five picks every single time.  I've highlighted the questionable ones. 

Evans - A franchise left tackle like Taylor Lewan is twice as important as a receiver.  Period.
Beckham - A top 3 defensive line talent is more valuable than a top 1 WR talent.  Anybody who disagrees deserves to be the Lions of the early 00's. 
Calvin Johnson - All-time great and durable left tackle is more important than a receiver who retires at 30 because he's a quiet diva.
Fitzgerald - Franchise QB is more important than franchise WR and anybody who disagrees is literally stupid. 
Andre Johnson is the only one an argument could be made for.  The only one. 

So I'll be fair.  I'll allow one.  One example.  Keep in mind this is for top 16 picks. 

QB - Andrew Luck in 2012.  There's one QB already.  Eli Manning is another (2 Super Bowl wins).  Roethlisberger. 

So far, QB is out.  We'd be better off drafting a QB in the top 16 so far.  Let's go to RB. 

RB - Adrian Peterson.  There wasn't a better option within 5 picks.  Todd Gurley is another one.  So there's two. 

Not even gonna check with OL because I'm pretty confident there. 

DL - Ansah, Watt, Donald are three just off the top of my head. 

DB - Marcus Peters and Eric Berry off the top of my head. 

 

I really don't know how.  It must be Madden.  How else could any rational person stop and think that a receiver could do more for a team than a QB, OL, DB, Pass rusher or DL? 

Assuming talent/greatness equivalence, I don't understand how anybody in their right mind could possibly think that an equally great receiver could do more for a team - ANY TEAM - than an equally great DB, Pass rusher, DL, OL...

Just looking at it from a basic, simplistic and realistic angle of rational thought.  Receivers are further away from the ball than any position on offense and literally can't have an impact without help from another position.  There's literally no other position that has that limitation.  A cornerback can eliminate a receiver no matter how crappy his defense is.  A receiver literally can't do anything without a QB throwing him the ball. 

 

 

[CWood21]

59 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I really don't know how.  It must be Madden.  How else could any rational person stop and think that a receiver could do more for a team than a QB, OL, DB, Pass rusher or DL? 

Unfortunately, that's the problem with numerical rankings.  If you go by tier-based rankings, you aren't "forced" to draft a position that has less of an impact.  If you're in a tier-based rankings, you're afforded the flexibility that you wouldn't have in a numerical rankings.  If you've got Courtland Sutton and Bradley Chubb as your top two ranked players, who do you select?  In a numerical-based rankings, if you've got Courtland Sutton ranked as the 7th best player while Chubb is the 8th best player, you're supposed to draft Sutton.  But if in your a tier-based rankings, you aren't restricted to that.  It's one of the reasons why I've been tempted to do away with numerical rankings and go purely on tier-based rankings.

[Kenrik]

It's the bye week so here is something to watch for if you're hoping for a higher draft pick regardless of where GB finishes. I'm listing the games somewhat in order of importance of bettering GB draft spot in my opinion:

CLE over MN

SF over PHI

DEN over KC

TB over CAR

DET over PIT

CHI over NO

SD over NE

BAL over MIA

OAK over BUF

HOU over SEA

NYJ over ATL

IND over CIN

WASH over DAL

[MacReady]

We beat Dallas, so we'd want Dallas to win against Washington if we're rooting for higher picks and all.  I can't start rooting for a better pick until the Packers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but I can start hoping for bad AFC teams to win. 

[Kenrik]

I can tell you right now were eliminated. I'll still cheer during everygame to hope GB wins but in reality after we lose it would be nice to be better setup for a higher draft pick.

Tiebreakers for draft picks go to SOS so its better to have Dallas lose.

[MacReady]

8 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

I can tell you right now were eliminated. I'll still cheer during everygame to hope GB wins but in reality after we lose it would be nice to be better setup for a higher draft pick.

Tiebreakers for draft picks go to SOS so its better to have Dallas lose.

That's literally the exact same thing people said in here in both the 2013 and 2016 seasons, so I don't know what makes you so confident.  It's the same thing I said in 2010 after we failed to score more than 3 points against the Lions after Rodgers left his second game of the season with an injury and we couldn't win a close game against the Patriots.  Remind me how that season ended.