2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[OneTwoSixFive]

13 hours ago, Rodjahs12 said:

My current rankings by position 

WR 

1.Calvin Ridley Alabama

2.Equanimeous St Brown Notre Dame

3.Christian Kirk Texas A&M

4.Courtland Sutton SMU

5.Simmie Cobbs Indiana

6.Auden Tate Florida State

7.DaeShawn Hamilton Penn State

8.Anthony Miller Memphis

9.Marcel Ateman Oklahoma State

10.Deon Cain Clemson

I was a little surprised to see no Gallup, more surprised at no Washington in the top 10 ?
Here are some sites WR ratings.

NFL.com/draft rates them 5th (Gallup) and 7th (Washington)

CBS                    rates them 4th and 2nd

GBN                   rates them NL (not in top 10) and 3rd

Drafttek             rates them 7th and 2nd.

One thing i did notice when I looked at WRs over several sites is that (like pass rushers) there are some pretty large differences of opinion in how they stack. Some have Pettis pretty high (NFL.com has him at joint 3rd with Sutton), others have Chark in there, or Burnett. I don't remember things being this chaotic in previous seasons. Maybe it is just that I haven't compared across multiple sites like this much, in the past. You would think things would slide toward closer consensus soon, maybe after the combine.

[Hands]

St Brown will have a great Combine, still will be a 2nd rd pick. Love Kirk's route running and speed. Washington, doesn't have Kirk's 40 speed but does have that route quickness....he doesn't lose speed during his routes. 

[Rodjahs12]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I was a little surprised to see no Gallup, more surprised at no Washington in the top 10 ?
Here are some sites WR ratings.

NFL.com/draft rates them 5th (Gallup) and 7th (Washington)

CBS                    rates them 4th and 2nd

GBN                   rates them NL (not in top 10) and 3rd

Drafttek             rates them 7th and 2nd.

One thing i did notice when I looked at WRs over several sites is that (like pass rushers) there are some pretty large differences of opinion in how they stack. Some have Pettis pretty high (NFL.com has him at joint 3rd with one other Sutton), others have Chark in there, or Burnett. I don't remember things being this chaotic in previous seasons. Maybe it is just that I haven't compared across multiple sites like this much, in the past. You would think things would slide toward closer consensus soon, maybe after the combine.

As you mentioned, rating receivers before the combine is a fool’s game, so that part of the list will change before the draft. One thing that stands out for me in this class are all of the big body types to find in the middle rounds. Between Brown, Sutton, Cobbs, Tate, Ateman and a handful of others just outside my current top ten, finding a bigger weapon for Aaron to work with is very doable this year and its something I feel we can utilize well. As for Washington, I think he’ll carve out a decent career but I can’t stand his build and think there are better options especially in our offense.

[packfanfb]

Maybe the combine changes my mind but the more and more I read up on the Edge class in this draft, the more I don't want one at 14. I just don't see the value. After Chubb it looks like a huge gap to the next crop of guys who all seem like lower 1st to mid 2nd guys. Key has off the field issues, Landry had bad 2017 tape, Davenport is raw af, and so on. Are any of them top 15 players? I see much more overall value in guys like Vea, Roquan, Edmunds (who could be an Edge I guess), James, Nelson or even Ridley or Josh Jackson if we look at from a BPA point of view.

At this point, pre-combine, I'd probably say my realistic top 5 (in no particular order are: Vea, the ILBs (Smith or Edmunds), Jackson (even though I hate the thought of another high pick rookie CB) or James. 

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

I would only be tempted to move up in the 1st round for an edge . Especially if those with 1st round grades are going off the board fast. Our primary need is to improve the pass rush. Chubb seems to be the only sure fire one. My guess is he goes top 5. The others seem to have "warts" but if the Packers have 1sr round grades on some of them, they will have to watch the board carefully. They must come away with an edge good enough to draw blocking away from CM III and Perry. WR hopefully will come through FA. Maybe even corner via FA. Can't do it all with the draft. TT tried that and left us with a lot of holes (listed above). BG is going to have to restructure and extend Nelson and CM III to find cap room. I'm not for cutting Bulaga. I'm on the fence about Cobb. Monty could play the slot receiver. Even if a trade up is necessary, there should be enough picks left for a TE and T. With a year of experience and a simplified defense, Josh Jones should be fine at S. And Brice will be back for another try.

You're not wrong about Chubb being the only blue chip pass rusher in the draft.  But I think you're going to be disappointed if you believe the Packers are going to "fix" their WR issues through FA.  That's just not how the Packers operate, and they've been productive getting players through the draft.  I'd bet a good amount of money we take a WR on Day 2 with an eye towards the future.

[CWood21]

20 hours ago, moretti19 said:

I'm really hoping Lamar Jackson does great this off-season. Would not mind trading down in the first for a team trading up for him. 

We're actually in a pretty good spot.  Right after us, Arizona picks and the 14th pick could be the last spot to grab one of the top QB prospects.

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I was a little surprised to see no Gallup, more surprised at no Washington in the top 10 ?

People have been a little slow to get on Gallup, probably because he plays for Colorado State.  I mean, Davante Adams didn't get a ton of talk until later in the process despite his insane production.  As for James Washington, seems he's a bit polarizing.  I'm not a huge fan of his, mainly because I don't see the short-to-intermediate production.  Seems most of his production comes off the big play.

[CWood21]

16 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Maybe the combine changes my mind but the more and more I read up on the Edge class in this draft, the more I don't want one at 14. I just don't see the value. After Chubb it looks like a huge gap to the next crop of guys who all seem like lower 1st to mid 2nd guys. Key has off the field issues, Landry had bad 2017 tape, Davenport is raw af, and so on. Are any of them top 15 players? I see much more overall value in guys like Vea, Roquan, Edmunds (who could be an Edge I guess), James, Nelson or even Ridley or Josh Jackson if we look at from a BPA point of view.

At this point, pre-combine, I'd probably say my realistic top 5 (in no particular order are: Vea, the ILBs (Smith or Edmunds), Jackson (even though I hate the thought of another high pick rookie CB) or James. 

I don't think I'd disagree that all of the non-Chubb EDGE have their warts.  But I think the notion that you're somehow going to get better value later in the draft is a fool's errand.  Pass rushers go early and often, and the good ones go off the board super early.  Sure, guys like Key or Landry might not be "worth" the 14th pick, but the alternative of grabbing a pass rusher that has physical limitations or limited production with our 2nd round pick isn't a great alternative either.  And the more you pass off that position, the more it becomes a bigger issue.  That's my biggest knock with last year's draft class.  We pushed EDGE until we couldn't go any later, and ended up with a guy who started the year on the PUP list.  Can we afford to do that again?

As for your top 5, I'll go over it again.  Let's start with Vita Vea.  Pettine has already said he's not playing a ton of 3 DL looks, so you have to take him at is word for that one.  Last year, Kenny Clark led the DL playing in 65% of the defensive snaps with Mike Daniels right behind him at 60%.  If you take Vea, you're essentially saying that the Montravius Adams pick was a wasted pick, and committing yourself to a non-rush DL.  Unless you believe he is another Haloti Ngata, Vea shouldn't be anywhere near the top of your board.  I've made my opinion pretty clear on the value of ILBs, so I'm not going to beat a dead horse.  But based on what I've seen, I prefer Edmunds to Smith.  As for Josh Jackson, I don't see the man skills being there so he's not an elite cover corner.  I honestly think he'd be better off in a zone coverage scheme where his instincts play up a bit more.  If you want a better man cover, I'd go with Denzel Ward although the size concerns are real.  If you're willing to go more raw, I like Carlton Davis from Auburn and Isaiah Oliver of Colorado.  As for Derwin James, my biggest concern is that he's a better athlete than football player.  He came into the year as a consensus top 5 prospect, and now he's a mid-1st round pick.  He's not a great coverage safety, and is honestly much different than Josh Jones?

[Mr. Fussnputz]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You're not wrong about Chubb being the only blue chip pass rusher in the draft.  But I think you're going to be disappointed if you believe the Packers are going to "fix" their WR issues through FA.  That's just not how the Packers operate, and they've been productive getting players through the draft.  I'd bet a good amount of money we take a WR on Day 2 with an eye towards the future.

Up until now "the Packers" has been TT, but now it's going to be BG. We won't know what BG is going to do until he does it. He has no record to base a prediction on. If BG does decide to go to FA for a WR, who do you like who might be available? Cheers.

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Up until now "the Packers" has been TT, but now it's going to be BG. We won't know what BG is going to do until he does it. He has no record to base a prediction on. If BG does decide to go to FA for a WR, who do you like who might be available? Cheers.

We're not going off the reservation with Gute, so that concept probably needs to go out the window.  Given my expectations, I think the best way to describe the Packers' activity in FA WR would be classified as opportunistic at best.  I think in a most likely scenario, they extend Jordy Nelson (think 3 years, $21M) to lower his cap hit and let Randall Cobb play his contract out.  The Packers draft their replacement for Randall Cobb, and after next season they move Jordy Nelson into the slot.  That to me, is the most realistic scenario.

[skibrett15]

On 1/29/2018 at 6:46 PM, CWood21 said:

Let me make it clear, I don't think that the Packers are opposed to having a vet as their 4th corner.  I don't believe that any halfway decent corner is going to sign knowing that they're likely at best the 4th corner on the depth chart.  If they're halfway decent, why wouldn't they sign on a team where they're clearly higher on the depth chart and likely making more money?  There's no reason for any halfway decent CB to come to Green Bay to be the 4th corner.  Even guys like Tramon Williams or Captain Munnerlyn are more likely going to a team where they have a clearer path to PT and making more money.

It's just the money.

Why would they be the 4th corner anyway?  If we sign someone before the draft, they would slot in as the #1/#2 outside corner.  You could say that's the #2/#3 corner behind Randall and maybe King... but the vet who signs is gonna play outside and therefore make outside corner money.

Or is the conversation about signing house AND another corner?

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

It's just the money.

Why would they be the 4th corner anyway?  If we sign someone before the draft, they would slot in as the #1/#2 outside corner.  You could say that's the #2/#3 corner behind Randall and maybe King... but the vet who signs is gonna play outside and therefore make outside corner money.

Or is the conversation about signing house AND another corner?

The argument was made that the Packers should bring in TWO veteran corners, not just one.  So let's say Davon House and Trumaine Johnson.  Would Davon House re-sign with Green Bay knowing that he's most likely the 4th CB moving forward?  Trumaine Johnson is one of the starting boundary corners, and until the Packers go into the nickel Damarious Randall is probably the other boundary corner.  So it's essentially coming down to Kevin King and Davon House for that nickel corner.  Given the investment the Packers made in King, he figures to be in the long-term plans which gives the Packers more incentive to play him.

[craig]

19 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Maybe the combine changes my mind but the more and more I read up on the Edge class in this draft, the more I don't want one at 14. I just don't see the value. After Chubb it looks like a huge gap to the next crop of guys who all seem like lower 1st to mid 2nd guys. ....

This is part of the puzzle/problem for me, too.  We desperately need a good edge, and as CWood argues they are very hard to find later.  But the guys who are there don't really look that good.  So you're kinda stuck in a quandary.

The Packers have gotten into such a bad situation that they're probably going to need to take a shaky-value pick on a pretty imperfect edge.  Odds are that none of the three edges under discussion will really turn out to be especially good in the NFL, and the team won't benefit all that much from the pick. 

But, what choice do you have?  Almost forced to just take a shot and hope the guy you take turns out better than we can probably expect, and that he turns into good-value after all.  But it seems totally need-based, the kind of motivation that TT and the draft philosophers think can lead to some relatively unsuccessful draft picks.  

[Shanedorf]

Perhaps they might trade Cobb as part of a draft day move....and then use a combination of a restructured Jordy and rehabbed Monty to handle the bulk of the slot WR duties in 2018. They'll also add more WR's via the draft.

Cobb could be a good fit in Cleveland, where the former Packers Pro Personnel guy currently resides. He'd also fit in SF where Shanahan and his protege Jimmy G need a vet WR with a high football IQ. I can see the J-E-T-S being interested as part of their WR re-build

I've valued Cobb at a mid- 4th for draft trade purposes and those teams above are swimming in cap space and could potentially use a vet like Randall Cobb

[moretti19]

Does anyone expect anything out of Vince Beigel? Anyone hear if he looked promising or anything. I would really consider Roquan Smith or Derwin James and then go Lorenzo Alexander in the 2nd