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2018 NFL Draft Discussion


squire12

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On 2/6/2018 at 1:57 PM, Packerraymond said:

We kept Jennings and Jones until they were past their prime. Jennings was surely a top 10 receiver in his prime. Jones was one of the better possession receivers in the league. Nelson not being in the top 10 at any point is a laughably bad opinion. Cobb was a premier slot guy coming into the league, his legs deteriorated faster than most expected but he was a great talent, Adams is a top 10 WR in the NFL currently and Jermichael Finley was a top 10 TE in his prime, oh and Rodgers also had Driver.

He's had legit pass catching talent. The only players that Favre ever had that were better than the guys listed were Sharpe and one year of Javon Walker.

Yes.

But 2016-2017 has not had good receiving talent on the team outside of Adams, who is a 20-30 range guy.  I'm really eager to see what a 50-70 range receiver in the NFL looks like in GB.  Might be a top 20 guy suddenly.

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1 minute ago, moretti19 said:

Does anyone expect anything out of Vince Beigel? Anyone hear if he looked promising or anything. I would really consider Roquan Smith or Derwin James and then go Lorenzo Alexander in the 2nd

It was pretty much a throw away year for Adams and Biegel. You can't miss all of camp and pre-season and the first 1/3rd of the season as a rookie and be the player you want to be.

Next year will be the tell all for those two.

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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

Yes.

But 2016-2017 has not had good receiving talent on the team outside of Adams, who is a 20-30 range guy.  I'm really eager to see what a 50-70 range receiver in the NFL looks like in GB.  Might be a top 20 guy suddenly.

Adams is better than the 20-30th best WR in the NFL, by a lot. I'd say he's easily in the 10-15 range.

Jordy is in the 20-30 range currently. Cobb probably somewhere around 40-60 and you had Bennett who was a top 15 TE.

Let's not lose sight of what we have because Rodgers got hurt. We need to restock at the skills, but last years group was just fine (NFL Network called Adams/Nelson the #1 duo in the NFL.)

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6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Jordy is in the 20-30 range currently.

No.  Just... a firm no on that. 

Adams at 15 or so is fine, but he's still well below the caliber of player that you want to target vs great CBs, and even below a guy like Michael Thomas or Mike Evans or T.Y. Hilton.

 

Jordy... I think I'd rather have Mohamed Sanu than him at this point.  At least Sanu is slow and strong.  Jordy looked like Eric Decker: washed.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

 Jordy looked like Eric Decker: washed.

Certainly a possibility. But not the only one

Davante Adams looked real bad in 2015.... until we found out about the undisclosed injuries...

If Jordy is truly done, the Packers will certainly move on. If they re-structure and keep him, that suggests a different conclusion about Jordy's 2017 performance

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We're not going off the reservation with Gute, so that concept probably needs to go out the window.  Given my expectations, I think the best way to describe the Packers' activity in FA WR would be classified as opportunistic at best.  I think in a most likely scenario, they extend Jordy Nelson (think 3 years, $21M) to lower his cap hit and let Randall Cobb play his contract out.  The Packers draft their replacement for Randall Cobb, and after next season they move Jordy Nelson into the slot.  That to me, is the most realistic scenario.

So Jordy stays outside this year and Cobb plays the slot? Then in 2019 Cobb leaves via FA and Jordy moves into the slot and the Packers draft a guy this spring to play outside? Since it takes a year or two to master MM's playbook and earn AR's confidence, you're saying the Pack drafts an outside guy this spring? I see a lot of mock drafts have them taking a receiver, so you seem to on to it! My only concern is that this plan doesn't address the Packers "problem" with speed at the WR position. I would love to see the Packers dip into FA or swing a trade to bring in some 4.3 speed at WR! But I understand there are bigger problems like TE, cornerback, and especially Edge. Let's hope things break right for them and they can fill some of their needs in the draft. My guess is Chubb is not attainable at any reasonable price and I'm not seeing any TE, CB, or WR talent worthy of 14. I'm feeling a trade down brewing! What I can't figure out is how they solve their Edge problem. What are you thinking? 

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

So Jordy stays outside this year and Cobb plays the slot? Then in 2019 Cobb leaves via FA and Jordy moves into the slot and the Packers draft a guy this spring to play outside? Since it takes a year or two to master MM's playbook and earn AR's confidence, you're saying the Pack drafts an outside guy this spring? I see a lot of mock drafts have them taking a receiver, so you seem to on to it! My only concern is that this plan doesn't address the Packers "problem" with speed at the WR position. I would love to see the Packers dip into FA or swing a trade to bring in some 4.3 speed at WR! But I understand there are bigger problems like TE, cornerback, and especially Edge. Let's hope things break right for them and they can fill some of their needs in the draft. My guess is Chubb is not attainable at any reasonable price and I'm not seeing any TE, CB, or WR talent worthy of 14. I'm feeling a trade down brewing! What I can't figure out is how they solve their Edge problem. What are you thinking? 

I think GB will try to find an option in UFA and via trade to fill some holes at EDGE/CB/TE.   In a best case situation, they reduce the holes to fill by the time the draft rolls around and that allows them to not be in a situation to have to take a player in the 1st to fill a remaining hole.  

There will be more CB and WR available in FA than EDGE or TE. 

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1 minute ago, squire12 said:

I think GB will try to find an option in UFA and via trade to fill some holes at EDGE/CB/TE.   In a best case situation, they reduce the holes to fill by the time the draft rolls around and that allows them to not be in a situation to have to take a player in the 1st to fill a remaining hole.  

There will be more CB and WR available in FA than EDGE or TE. 

So the odds are the Packers will hit on a CB or WR in free agency? That will fill one or two holes (CB or WR?) leaving the draft to fill Edge and TE? Do you think there is an Edge that slots at #14? Or should the packers trade down?

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1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

No.  Just... a firm no on that. 

Adams at 15 or so is fine, but he's still well below the caliber of player that you want to target vs great CBs, and even below a guy like Michael Thomas or Mike Evans or T.Y. Hilton.

Jordy... I think I'd rather have Mohamed Sanu than him at this point.  At least Sanu is slow and strong.  Jordy looked like Eric Decker: washed.

Agree totally.  Jordy's had a great career, and it's not done.  But he doesn't have the speed or explosion he used to, he's pretty much a tall guy getting by on veteran guile.  Nowhere close to top-30, IMO obviously.  

Shanedorf's point is well taken, though.  Sometimes a guy plays way worse when he's hurt.  Sometimes when a young guy is hurt, we know it; but when an old guy gets hurt, we just assume he's almost done.  But even veterans can recover from injuries.  Maybe next July we'll get an upbeat story talking about how Jordy got hurt early and was so manly and tough that he played through it all year, but now he feels great and he's looking forward to a good year.  And it might be true. 

Part of the problem in that scenario, of course, is that just as MM kept playing Adams the year he had no ankles, it was because MM had so little willingness to play guys like Janis.  Kind of the same conundrum with Jordy, *IF* he was playing hurt, it might have been nice to have options better than Janis and Davis and Geronimo to pick up snaps.  It's one of the reasons why it's incumbent to get some new talent back there.  

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

So the odds are the Packers will hit on a CB or WR in free agency? That will fill one or two holes (CB or WR?) leaving the draft to fill Edge and TE? Do you think there is an Edge that slots at #14? Or should the packers trade down?

I think a trade down 5-7 spots and taking at EDGE there while adding another mid 2nd to take a second swing at an EDGE with that pick.  

Move down to ~20 and add a 2nd .  Allows GB to maybe get an EDGE at 20 and then move up to take another in the early 2nd.  There are more variables to play out, but that seems like an OK strategy.

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2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

Yes.

But 2016-2017 has not had good receiving talent on the team outside of Adams, who is a 20-30 range guy.  I'm really eager to see what a 50-70 range receiver in the NFL looks like in GB.  Might be a top 20 guy suddenly.

Man, I just can't get on board with this.

Off the top of my head Jordy had like 21 TDs in 23 games with Rodgers healthy.

Cobb has been super effective when he and Rodgers were both healthy. That's the issue. His healthy per game stats with Rodgers but him in the top ten across the board.

It's not a talent issue. It's health.

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19 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I think a trade down 5-7 spots and taking at EDGE there while adding another mid 2nd to take a second swing at an EDGE with that pick.  

Move down to ~20 and add a 2nd .  Allows GB to maybe get an EDGE at 20 and then move up to take another in the early 2nd.  There are more variables to play out, but that seems like an OK strategy.

Not sure with different charts, but 14 to 20 should be worth something in the 3rd round.  An extra 3rd-round guy could be pretty nice to have, if effectively the trade-down you still end up with the same need-based pick at 20 that you'd have been reaching for at 14.  

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34 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

So Jordy stays outside this year and Cobb plays the slot? Then in 2019 Cobb leaves via FA and Jordy moves into the slot and the Packers draft a guy this spring to play outside? Since it takes a year or two to master MM's playbook and earn AR's confidence, you're saying the Pack drafts an outside guy this spring? I see a lot of mock drafts have them taking a receiver, so you seem to on to it! My only concern is that this plan doesn't address the Packers "problem" with speed at the WR position. I would love to see the Packers dip into FA or swing a trade to bring in some 4.3 speed at WR! But I understand there are bigger problems like TE, cornerback, and especially Edge. Let's hope things break right for them and they can fill some of their needs in the draft. My guess is Chubb is not attainable at any reasonable price and I'm not seeing any TE, CB, or WR talent worthy of 14. I'm feeling a trade down brewing! What I can't figure out is how they solve their Edge problem. What are you thinking? 

Pretty much.  LIS, I don't see the Packers spending in FA on a WR, given what they already have and their success getting talent through the draft.  I'd venture a guess we're going to draft a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round.  And we don't need burner, we just need someone whose got enough speed.  Davante Adams ran a 4.56 at the Combine, and nobody is complaining about that right now.  Give me a great route runner over a guy who runs a 4.3 forty every day of the week.  And given the trust issues that Rodgers has, I'm not sure a rookie WR is going to get a ton of balls thrown to him.  Either way, a 4.3 WR is the least of my worries.  As for TE, historically they're not big producers as rookies which is why my preference is for a veteran TE.  Jimmy Graham is the gem of the class, but he's also the most expensive one and is going to have enough suitors.  Fortunately, it's a pretty good TE class so if they miss out on Graham signing a veteran while we mold a young TE is also a possibility.

I mentioned that good pass rushers rarely become available in FA, and my opinion hasn't changed on that.  And the few decent ones that are available get overpaid.  It's essentially draft and develop your own pass rushers.  As for CB, we need at least one veteran corner.

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2 hours ago, moretti19 said:

Does anyone expect anything out of Vince Beigel? Anyone hear if he looked promising or anything. I would really consider Roquan Smith or Derwin James and then go Lorenzo Alexander in the 2nd

At this point, no.  If he plays well in the preseason, maybe I'll start gaining some expectations.

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2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Jimmy Graham is the gem of the class, but he's also the most expensive one and is going to have enough suitors.  Fortunately, it's a pretty good TE class so if they miss out on Graham signing a veteran while we mold a young TE is also a possibility.

What other TE do you see as UFA that are worth what they might get in contracts?

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