2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[Leader]

6 minutes ago, cannondale said:

That goes without saying every year. It also assumes you have enough players at a position to field a team

Yes - it does apply every year and every year teams overvalue and draft players based on need.

"You have to be careful to avoid team needs creeping into your grades," an NFC personnel director told me. "If you're a team that grades prospects strictly on how they would fit into your roster, you can overvalue a guy in a position of need. When you do that, you're prone to missing out on good players because you're trying to fix a hole instead of picking the best player."

"How many times have we heard Penn State running back Saquon Barkley mentioned as the best player in the draft? Better yet, how many times have we discussed Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward as elite prospects?

With that in mind, I continue to have a hard time believing quarterbacks could come off the board 1-2-3 on draft day, with so many talented players possessing top-10 grades. These guys are universally viewed as Pro Bowl-caliber talents, and bypassing them could spark regret down the road.

"You can never have enough good players," the NFC personnel director said. "If you collect a bunch of good players, you always have the option of trading some of your surpluses away to get what you need. ... I understand why everyone wants to find a franchise guy, but you better make sure that his game matches the pick. If not, you not only have missed on him, but you've missed out on other guys who could've helped your squad."

 

 

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, cannondale said:

When everyone looks into their crystal ball, what are the chances we can go Edge at 14 ?

Long way to go, but my hopes are dwindling

I'd argue it's either EDGE or CB with our 1st pick.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, hitnhope said:

Just hoping we stay away from Josh Jackson.  Don't understand the love for him at all.

He clocked slow at the combine and looks slow on tape.  5 of his 8 int's were against  Barrett and Hornibrook who possess far from NFL arm strength.  Both were susceptible to int's, and NFL QB's wont give them so easily.  I think he may be a zone only player who most likely will need to move to FS to make a splash.

I like him, just not in Green Bay's scheme.  The man skills aren't there, and I don't imagine they're going to come anytime soon.

[incognito_man]

40 minutes ago, Leader said:

Bucky Brooks:

"Using a "BPA" (best player available) philosophy that's built on the premise of ranking and selecting the top football talents in the draft, teams shouldn't bypass good players to simply grab a prospect who fills a need. While some will take umbrage with that notion, I believe there are too many examples in previous drafts that validate my perspective"

Doesn't really have anything to do with my post but ok

[Leader]

45 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Doesn't really have anything to do with my post but ok

It wasnt intended as a direct reply but it did pertain to your message concerning "need and value" - so I thought it topical.

 

[Gopackgonerd]

2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Is LVE this year's T.J. Watt? Other than the fact that Watt played primarily on the edge at Wisc and LVE played a lot inside, their combine numbers and measurables are remarkably close. Steelers used Watt all over the place last year and LVE could be that player this year. 

LVE: 

Measurable	Measurement	%tile
Height	6' 4¼"	96
Weight	256 lbs	94
Wingspan	81⅛"	91
Arm Length	33⅞"	94
Hand Size	9¾"	59
40 Yard Dash	4.65s	71
Vertical Jump	39½"	93
Broad Jump	124"	89
3-Cone Drill	6.88s	85
20 Yard Shuttle	4.15s	83
60 Yard Shuttle	11.57s	65
Bench Press	20 reps	34

Watt:

Measurable	Measurement	%tile
Height	6' 4"	93
Weight	252 lbs	89
Arm Length	33⅛"	78
Hand Size	11"	98
40 Yard Dash	4.69s	57
Vertical Jump	37"	82
Broad Jump	128"	95
3-Cone Drill	6.79s	90
20 Yard Shuttle	4.13s	85
60 Yard Shuttle	11.2s	94
Bench Press	21 reps	42

Not sure he'd be good at 3-4 EDGE in certain situations, he has trouble getting off blocks. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

11 hours ago, Leader said:

........... and every year teams overvalue and draft players based on need.

This is a topic that could have a thread of its own. I regularly see stuff about a team overdrafting a player. I remember that at the time Clay Matthews was drafted, it was said we gave up too much for that pick (pick #26 in 2009). If you check out the charts (which I did back when I heard that complaint) the Packers did give up a good bit more than the 26th pick was worth. HOWEVER, the Packers valued him as something like the twefth best prospect on their board (and it's rare that you actually get to hear teams views on that stuff, especially the Packers), so by that yardstick he WAS worth what they paid.

This is the tricky part of accusing a team of reaching - you just don't normally know where they sat on that teams board. Sometimes you can be reasonably confident the team both reached and knew it was (see the Vikes drafting Christian Ponder 12th overall.........that smacked of desperation at the time). The problem is that often fans who criticise a team for reaching, are doing it way after the draft, long enough after for the player to not be looking as good as fans hoped. That is just a 20/20 hindsight thing. 

I haven't even touched on the very different grades the same player might get from different teams due to fit, or character, or health. Far too much stock is put in internet big boards, they need not match up that well with a team's board, indeed they definitely will not.

Perhaps it is just easier, and closer to the truth, to say that in hindsight a team made a bad pick. That is better than guessing they reached.

[SpeightTheVillain]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

Bucky Brooks:

"Using a "BPA" (best player available) philosophy that's built on the premise of ranking and selecting the top football talents in the draft, teams shouldn't bypass good players to simply grab a prospect who fills a need. While some will take umbrage with that notion, I believe there are too many examples in previous drafts that validate my perspective"

While this is true - no team uses BPA strictly because honestly that is a stupid way to build a team. 

Should we take a QB at 14 if we have him ranked a tier higher then the rest of the players. I would say no. What about a guard? Or Center? Or FB?

You pick the player at the greatest need in the tier you are in. Almost every team does this. 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

Yes - it does apply every year and every year teams overvalue and draft players based on need.

"You have to be careful to avoid team needs creeping into your grades," an NFC personnel director told me. "If you're a team that grades prospects strictly on how they would fit into your roster, you can overvalue a guy in a position of need. When you do that, you're prone to missing out on good players because you're trying to fix a hole instead of picking the best player."

"How many times have we heard Penn State running back Saquon Barkley mentioned as the best player in the draft? Better yet, how many times have we discussed Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward as elite prospects?

With that in mind, I continue to have a hard time believing quarterbacks could come off the board 1-2-3 on draft day, with so many talented players possessing top-10 grades. These guys are universally viewed as Pro Bowl-caliber talents, and bypassing them could spark regret down the road.

"You can never have enough good players," the NFC personnel director said. "If you collect a bunch of good players, you always have the option of trading some of your surpluses away to get what you need. ... I understand why everyone wants to find a franchise guy, but you better make sure that his game matches the pick. If not, you not only have missed on him, but you've missed out on other guys who could've helped your squad."

 

 

Easy to make that call while not currently employed by a team.

You need edge rushers and QBs to win games and elite caliber players aren't hitting the FA market. You have to draft them.

Additionally, you could make the argument that a guy like Josh Sitton was a better Guard than Matt Ryan is a QB, you'd still be dumb to take a Josh Sitton rather than a Matt Ryan. Positional value and positions of need matter in these things.

Add in that you need reps to develop and you don't want top tier rookies sitting on the bench. 

BPA on it's own is a flawed way of drafting just like alwys drafting position of need.

Best Value Available is what needs to be drafted for. You own a player on his rookie deal for 4 years. If current team dynamics means he's not going to contribute for those first 3 years, are you really better off getting 1 year of production out of a great player rather than 4 out of a really good player? 

[Rodjahs12]

I still can’t understand why anyone would want to use a top 10 pick on Nelson when you can probably get one of Wynn/Hernandez at the top of round 2 and have an all pro player at the same spot anyway.

[AlexGreen#20]

11 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

I still can’t understand why anyone would want to use a top 10 pick on Nelson when you can probably get one of Wynn/Hernandez at the top of round 2 and have an all pro player at the same spot anyway.

I still can't understand why people act like any of these guys are locks to be an All-Pro caliber talent. We've seen a lot of guards bust early who were supposed to be can't miss prospects. Hell, Marshall Yanda is the best interior lineman of the past decade and he was a 3rd round pick. Lineman are just like other positions. Hernandez doesn't look anymore impressive than Josh Garrett did in 2016. 

Nelson's not really any better than Zack Martin at the same spot. I say all of this with the caveat that I think Nelson is overrated as a prospect in very much the same vein that I think Chance Warmack was overrated, though not to the same extent. 

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I still can't understand why people act like any of these guys are locks to be an All-Pro caliber talent. We've seen a lot of guards bust early who were supposed to be can't miss prospects. Hell, Marshall Yanda is the best interior lineman of the past decade and he was a 3rd round pick. Lineman are just like other positions. Hernandez doesn't look anymore impressive than Josh Garrett did in 2016. 

Nelson's not really any better than Zack Martin at the same spot. I say all of this with the caveat that I think Nelson is overrated as a prospect in very much the same vein that I think Chance Warmack was overrated, though not to the same extent. 

Nelson's better than Warmack though.  That Alabama OL made Warmack look better than he was.  OL in general though tend to only look as good as the players around them, which is why I'm reluctant to spend high on non-OT because they're going to look good as the guys around them.  You're less keen on adding help to your IOL since they already have guys there.

[Rodjahs12]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I still can't understand why people act like any of these guys are locks to be an All-Pro caliber talent. We've seen a lot of guards bust early who were supposed to be can't miss prospects. Hell, Marshall Yanda is the best interior lineman of the past decade and he was a 3rd round pick. Lineman are just like other positions. Hernandez doesn't look anymore impressive than Josh Garrett did in 2016. 

Nelson's not really any better than Zack Martin at the same spot. I say all of this with the caveat that I think Nelson is overrated as a prospect in very much the same vein that I think Chance Warmack was overrated, though not to the same extent. 

The “all pro” reference was largely just rhetoric, but that doesn’t change how I feel about Wynn or Hernandez anyway. Hernandez moves so well for a guy who’s 330+ and is going to be an animal after an offseason or two. Wynn is one of the most consistent guard prospects I’ve evaluated especially as a pass protector.

 

Any of the top 3 guards are going to be very good selections. I just don’t think Nelson will be far enough ahead of the next two to justify how much farther up the board he’s going to go.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Nelson's better than Warmack though.  That Alabama OL made Warmack look better than he was.  OL in general though tend to only look as good as the players around them, which is why I'm reluctant to spend high on non-OT because they're going to look good as the guys around them.  You're less keen on adding help to your IOL since they already have guys there.

Nelson's not surrounded by a crap ton of talent at ND? McGlinchey is every bit the college player that Cyrus Kouandjio was. Mustipher isn't a stud like Barret Jones, but he'll probably get drafted next year and is a very solid center. 

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

The “all pro” reference was largely just rhetoric, but that doesn’t change how I feel about Wynn or Hernandez anyway. Hernandez moves so well for a guy who’s 330+ and is going to be an animal after an offseason or two. Wynn is one of the most consistent guard prospects I’ve evaluated especially as a pass protector.

 

Any of the top 3 guards are going to be very good selections. I just don’t think Nelson will be far enough ahead of the next two to justify how much farther up the board he’s going to go.

Check out Maea Teuhema formerly of LSU if you're looking at G prospects. He's got the second best tape IMO. Consider this my "Vaitai" guarantee.