2018 NFL Draft Discussion

[squire12]

The recent contracts that Sitton and Lang had with GB speaks to the value that GB saw in those players and the position.  Once GB had top level OT, they could allow the IOL to be less valued overall.   It will fluctuate again when Bahk and BUlaga are nearing their end, having more proven high investment IOL will be the case.  

[spilltray]

I fully agree they probably won't draft a pure G high. I think they very well may draft a guy to be their IOL high. That entire list (Rivera, Wahle, EDS, Wells,, Lang, Sitton...) got second contracts at fairly solid investments with the Packers. I'd expext to see the same. Tretter is the only one they really "let go". I'd expect to see them resign Linsley for a fair market starting C deal as well.

 

They like versatile guys sure, but when you only keep 8-9 OL on the roster and less than that game day active, that's just always a major plus for NFL OL. I'm saying regardless of what their college position was, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers draft a guy to clearly be their G as high as the second.

[MacReady]

Ugh.  I'll just have to wait until the draft is over to be like, "Lol, told you," again because I did this dance all last year leading up to the draft with receiver and IOL, and I did it the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before. 

[squire12]

Safety was not a high value position until the took Jones in the 2nd.

Positional value and player to draft have to meet at the proper point.  

The absense of them making a pick in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean they do not value the position highly

[PackyAttacky]

27 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Safety was not a high value position until the took Jones in the 2nd.

Positional value and player to draft have to meet at the proper point.  

The absense of them making a pick in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean they do not value the position highly

What about HaHa?

[PackyAttacky]

On the guard I will say in years past they have had guys ready, as long as we get out starting 3 ready before the draft I am fine with mid rounders again. Sign Evans to a one year deal and Taylor can get a couple. Going in with Barclay, McGray, and Patrick as your starters is scary. History shows that they don't allow that much turnover in one off-season though.

[squire12]

32 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Safety was not a high value position until the took Jones in the 2nd.

Positional value and player to draft have to meet at the proper point.  

The absense of them making a pick in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean they do not value the position highly

 

5 minutes ago, PackyAttacky said:

What about HaHa?

RIght... forgot about him.  Until then, it was mid rounders and UDFA.  Its as much about the players as it is the position.  

[CWood21]

35 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Safety was not a high value position until the took Jones in the 2nd.

Positional value and player to draft have to meet at the proper point.  

The absense of them making a pick in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean they do not value the position highly

Honestly, I'm not sure how anyone can say the Packers don't value the safety position very highly when they've drafted HHCD in the 1st round, Josh Jones and Nick Collins in the 2nd round, and Morgan Burnett in the 3rd round.  That's a LOT of ammunition put into the safety position.  The only pure OG they've drafted was Caleb Schlauderaff in the 6th round of the 2011 draft, and he was dealt during cutdowns of that year.  Beyond that, the highest that Ted has drafted a pure IOL (i.e. not a college tackle turned IOL) was Jason Spitz in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft.  History says that if you're looking for the Packers to draft an IOL, you're looking at the Packers taking a blindside college tackle early on Day 3.

[squire12]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, I'm not sure how anyone can say the Packers don't value the safety position very highly when they've drafted HHCD in the 1st round, Josh Jones and Nick Collins in the 2nd round, and Morgan Burnett in the 3rd round.  That's a LOT of ammunition put into the safety position.  The only pure OG they've drafted was Caleb Schlauderaff in the 6th round of the 2011 draft, and he was dealt during cutdowns of that year.  Beyond that, the highest that Ted has drafted a pure IOL (i.e. not a college tackle turned IOL) was Jason Spitz in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft.  History says that if you're looking for the Packers to draft an IOL, you're looking at the Packers taking a blindside college tackle early on Day 3.

what were the picks between Collins and HaHa?

THe likes of MD Jennings and McMillan were starting CB's for GB.   There was a time when the safety position had not been given much draft investment.  It has certainly changed in the last few years as the NFL game is evolving, from a decade ago.  

[squire12]

spending on positions becomes a bit of a cyclical process.   Draft capital investment is another matter,  From Spotrac

 

GB Offensive guard positional spending rank

2017 – 24th

2016 – 10th

2015 – 3^rd

2014 – 5^th

2013 – 7^th

 

GB Tackle positional spending rank

2017 – 4th

2016 – 7th

2015 – 22nd

2014 – 22nd

2013 – 18th

[MacReady]

Just now, squire12 said:

Safety was not a high value position until the took Jones in the 2nd.

Positional value and player to draft have to meet at the proper point.  

The absense of them making a pick in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean they do not value the position highly

That's not true.  I'll go strictly with next five players taken after each of our selections for the past 10 years to show that there have often been interior offensive linemen taken soon after our pick in order to show that we often overlook the IOL positions for other positions. 

2017:
*Forrest Lamp was available, we took King. 
*Dion Dotkins, Taylor Moton available at guard, we took Jones. 
*Zach Banner, Sean Harlow available at IOL, we took Jamaal Williams.

2016:
*Joshua Garnett, we took Clark.

2015:
*Jeremiah Poutasi, AJ Cann at IOL, we took Rollins (after we used our first on Randall).
*Terry Pool, Shaq Mason, Max Garcia, Mark Glowinski, we took Jake Ryan.

2014:
*Chris Watt, we took Thornton.
*Brandon Thomas, we took Richard Rodgers.

2013:
*Travis Frederick, we took Datone Jones.
*Larry Warford, we took Lacy.
*Barrett Jones, we took Bakhtiari.

2012:
*Peter Konz, we took Worthy.

2011:
*Clint Boling, we took Green

2008:
*Chio Rachal, we took Nelson
*Mike Pollack, we took Brohm
*Cody Wallace, we took Thompson

2007:
*Mansfield Wrotto, we took the college tackle (Barbre). 

2006:
*Ryan Cook, we took the college tackle (Colledge). 
*Paul McQuistan, we took Hodge. 

2005
*Chris Spencer, Logan Mankins (8 picks later) the year we let Rivera/Wahle go, we took Rodgers.
*Eric Ghiaciuc, we took Underwood.
*Dylan Gandy, we took Poppinga. 

TL:DR, that's 22 times there was an interior offensive lineman available at the draft position we were at (taken within 5 picks after ours) where we passed on IOL.  28 IOL available within five picks, but we went elsewhere, including 2005 when Logan Mankins and Chris Spencer were available in a year we desperately needed IOL with a Hall of Fame Brett Favre, and yet we went elsewhere.

It's a pattern, and I'm not making it up. 
 

[squire12]

So is that where they were ranked on GB's draft board?  you have inside information that GB had them all in the same range.  

 

How many of those players drafted by GB were at a position of "need" vs just taking the IOL because he was there.   Correlation =/= causation

[MacReady]

Seriously don't know why I bother arguing this.  No offense, squire, but I've just provided 13 years of examples, as Cwood said we've taken exactly one pure guard in 13 years and he was a 6th round pick, the only pure IOL we've taken in the first four rounds was Spitz, we've repeatedly and consistently allowed our starting IOL to leave in free agency, and you come back with "Correlation does not equal causation," and snarky comments like, "Oh, you know exactly what the Packers draft board is?" 

No, I don't, neither do you, and I've provided 13 years of evidence and REPEATED PATTERNS to back up my claim while your only response is, "But you don't know that for a fact."

And gravity is just a theory. 

 

[spilltray]

For basically 8 years in there they didn't need starting Gs. They also drafted Tretter in the 4th not sure if he'd end up at G or C. Yes some of the guys drafted were college T, but Sitton, Lang, Colledge, Tretter, you knew none of them projected as T at the NFL level.

 

I'm not talking about where they value guys who are pure college G prospects. I'm talking about guys they project to play G here in Green Bay.

[MacReady]

Just now, spilltray said:

For basically 8 years in there they didn't need starting Gs. They also drafted Tretter in the 4th not sure if he'd end up at G or C. Yes some of the guys drafted were college T, but Sitton, Lang, Colledge, Tretter, you knew none of them projected as T at the NFL level.

The reason this point doesn't apply is because there's value in a player that's played tackle.  Sitton in 2015 proved that.  Lang played at tackle some last year too, didn't he?