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cddolphin's 2018 Mock Offseason (Draft Round 1 Up)


cddolphin

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4 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

Just to add to the above......It’s not a great WR draft at the top either, so that will probably push the market up for FA Recievers.

I agree it is unlikely we get him for that but wouldn’t pay him more than 12 mil per season maybe a little ambitious but I was looking at Hilton and Adams contract. My thinking was

5 years

60mil

Signing Bonus $20,000,000

Year 1 - 3+4

Year 2 - 6.5+4

Year 3 - 8.5+4

Year 4 - 10+4

Year 5 - 12+4

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I would hate to see Landry go but I would not be totally crushed if he does. He makes a ton of catches but in reality he is not a game changer. I think a big down the middle TE and Grant in the slot would be a lot better line up then Landry in the slot and a non productive TE Miami has played with the last 2 years. Landry also has the uncanny ability to kill a big drive with stupid penalties. 

Unless Miami signs a starting franchise QB I say stay with Tannehill and hopefully draft his replacement.

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CAP SPACE: $30.43m

RE-SIGN

S Michael Thomas - 3 years, $6.4M ($3.4M guaranteed including $1.5M signing bonus)
Cap hits: $2M, $2M (400K gtd), $2.4M (not guaranteed)

Thomas is a special teams ace who has been snubbed from the Pro Bowl for two consecutive years, he leads the NFL in special teams tackles since 2014. This deal pays him like a top-3 core special teamer, which he has earned.

K Cody Parkey - 3 years, $6M ($1.5M guaranteed including $1.2M signing bonus)
Cap hits: $1.6M, $2M, $2.4M

Parkey missed two FGs, had three successful onside kick attempts, and 41.8% of his kickoffs resulted in touchbacks (no TDs returned, 19.7 return yards on average). He's a consistent if not outstanding kicker and this a reasonable contract. 

TE Anthony Fasano - 1 year, $2.85M ($1.25M guaranteed)
Fasano was essentially used exclusively as a blocking TE: he played 519 snaps and only saw two targets (catching both, one of which was a TD). This is essentially the same deal he got last offseason. Miami also has special teamer / H-back MarQueis Gray under contract as well as A.J. Darby, whom Miami snagged off waivers from Denver and who played 51 snaps over the last two weeks of the season.

LS John Denney - 1 year, $980k
Same deal as last year. In 13 years, Miami hasn't had a single errant snap to my knowledge on special teams. The longest-tenured Dolphin stays on for another year.

DE Terrence Fede - 1 year, $790k
Another core special teamer who has blocked multiple kicks in his career, Fede simply isn't good enough on defense to garner any market interest. Miami re-signs him for the veteran minimum.

 

CAP SPACE AFTER RE-SIGNINGS: $22.21M

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Miami has made offers to the following players before free agency is set to begin:

WR Jarvis Landry - 4 years, $50 million

DE William Hayes - 1 year, $2.75 million

Will the offers be enough to keep them on the team?

 

Miami has decided to not offer the following free agents new deals, they will play elsewhere next season:

QB Jay Culter
QB Matt Moore
QB David Fales
LB Koa Misi
S Nate Allen
S Walt Aikens
CB Alterraun Verner
OG Jermon Bushrod
OT Sam Young
RB Damien Williams

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FREE AGENCY - DAY ONE

Cap space: $22.21M minus 2018 draft picks (8 total picks, $7.29M)
=$14.92 million in cap space

 

WR Jarvis Landry Signs With Bears - 5 years, $70 million

Miami's offer simply doesn't cut it financially.  Landry signs in Chicago to join new HC Matt Nagy and young QB Mitch Trubisky who needs a security blanket down the middle. This contract makes Landry the 4th highest paid WR, which is manageable when you have $42 million in cap space.

 

DE William Hayes Signs With 49ers - 1 year, $3.25 million

After suffering an injury in 2017, Hayes only managed 272 snaps last season. He performed well against the run and was surprisingly quick for a 32 year old DE. Miami expressed interest in re-signing him, but not for the same contract they gave him last season. With Wake, Branch, and Harris still on the roster, Miami can't overspend for an older rotational DE with 8 picks coming in the draft.

 

The first day of free agency closes without any Miami signings.

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  • 2 weeks later...

FREE AGENCY - TIER TWO MIAMI SIGNINGS

 

OLB Kevin Pierre-Louis - 2 years, $2.15 million ($300k guaranteed)
Cap hits: $1.0m, $1.15m ($150k guaranteed)

Pierre-Louis was a former All-ACC LB for Boston College before being drafted in the 4th round of the 2014 draft by the Seahawks, where he appeared in 34 games over 3 years before being traded last summer to the Chiefs, there playing about half the snaps on special teams and 23% of defensive snaps. In Miami, he'll contribute on special teams and likely earn a backup coverage LB role for team-friendly contract slightly above the minimum.

 

CB Eli Apple - 1 year, $630k (play-time escalators up to $1.5m) with second-year team option for $2.5 million.

I anticipate Apple being cut by the Giants this summer. By all accounts, Apple has had an emotionally overwhelming year and has stirred the pot with his lack of effort in NYG. This is a non-guaranteed contract, pay-as-you-play contract with no downside; if Apple crosses a line and/or doesn't re-commit himself to a pro football career, Gase can cut him with no losses. By all accounts, he was a top target for Miami in the 2016 draft and has legitimate talent, enough to push the young CBs on Miami and to provide insurance for injury.

 

Cap space after signings: $12.42 million.

One round of free agency remains.

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FREE AGENCY - LAST DAY OF FREE AGENCY

Miami signs:

 

RB Charles Sims - 1 year, $790k

The 27-year-old runningback was used primarily as a pass-catching back during his four years at Tampa Bay, racking up 177 targets (1,190 yards) compared to 245 rushing attempts (958 yards). This is a veteran minimum contract for young depth at RB.

OG Oday Aboushi - 1 year, $895k

A 5-year veteran with experience at RG and OT, in 2017 Aboushi started 8 games at RG before suffering a shoulder injury that landed him on IR. Another minimum deal for a backup swing OL.

 

Free agency concludes.

Miami has $10.74 million in cap space remaining (this includes all 2018 draft picks' slotted contracts). Instead of spending up to the limit, leaving some breathing room allows flexibility for any mid-season trades or extensions, and any extra space can be rolled over into 2019.

Up next will be the draft.

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For this I'll be using the mock draft website fanspeak.

https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

I ran one single mock draft to simulate unpredictability.

2018 NFL DRAFT

ROUND 1, PICK 11

LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
6'1" 225lbs

RoquanSmithUGa.jpg

 

Roquan Smith is the answer to who will fill one of Miami's biggest needs: a sure-tackling LB with coverage skills. Smith would be an instant-starter at WOLB and would pair very well next to the larger Raekwon McMillan at MLB.

 

Quote

Smith’s tackling is second to none. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith has 133 run snaps, He has 29 tackles from running the ball. 5 assists, But where he is second to none is due to his 0 missed tackles. he has 21 run stops (at or behind the line of scrimmage) That gives Smith a run stop percentage of 15.8 percent. In the passing game, Smith has 176 snaps. Again with no missed tackles on.

Quote

There is a lot to like about Smith for the NFL. He is a tremendous linebacker with excellent instincts. Smith has superb speed, and with his instincts, he is a heat-seeking missile that tracks down ball-carriers all over the field. Smith is very fast to the flat and shuts down perimeter rushing attacks. He also is quick to read his keys and fire to the right spot to make tackles. With his speed, instincts, and diagnosis skills, Smith is a dangerous run defender.

The key for any non-pass-rushing linebacker to be a first-round pick is his ability to excel in pass coverage. Smith fits that criteria as he is a capable defender at helping to limit passing attacks. In coverage, he has the speed, athleticism and agility to be a man-coverage option against running backs or tight ends. Smith also gets good depth in zone and is sound to be in the right spot while covering up receivers who come into his territory. Smith also is a dangerous blitzer who closes on the quarterback in an instant. Quickly in his NFL career, Smith should be a three-down starter who never leaves the field. 

The negatives for Smith include that he weighs in the 220s. He should look to get into the 230s for the NFL. Given that size issue, he could have problems with runs coming straight at him and getting off blocks. To maximize his effectiveness, he needs to be protected from taking on a lot of blocks. As a pro, Smith projects to being a starter in a 4-3 defense as a Will (weakside) linebacker. In a 3-4, he could play on the inside, but should have a bigger Mike (middle) linebacker next to him to do the take-on jobs. 

 

https://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/roquan-smith/

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018rsmith.php

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