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2017 Divisional Round

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7 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I realized it was helpful to read your text before attempting to climb the  "wall of excel misfortune". 

I had fallen into a pit of data despair, but your words illuminated a path to redemption.

 

Maybe in the future you can just send us a raven from the top of the wall with your summary of the events that transpired... we trust your data analysis skills ;)

I was trying to leave a trail of breadcrumbs for @Packerraymond to supply some backing to his claims that NE gets easy games against nothing teams.  The data just does not support that over the long run.  Sure a few seasons it does (more so recently), but not always.  NE has been really dam good and secures home field, gets them a bye, home game and at times the benefit of playing a poorer team.  Some would say they lucked into it, some that they earned it by winning at a high rate in the regular season.  

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Just now, squire12 said:

I was trying to leave a trail of breadcrumbs for @Packerraymond to supply some backing to his claims that NE gets easy games against nothing teams.  The data just does not support that over the long run.  Sure a few seasons it does (more so recently), but not always.  NE has been really dam good and secures home field, gets them a bye, home game and at times the benefit of playing a poorer team.  Some would say they lucked into it, some that they earned it by winning at a high rate in the regular season.  

The biggest advantage that NE has is their division is pathetic.  Even when Miami makes the playoffs, it's because they are an average NFL team which is gifted 4 wins from the Jets and Bills.

Since the NYJ teams with Sanchez, there has not been a legitimate team that ever challenges them in their division.  There is not anything even remotely close to a Stafford Lions or a Vikings defense or Cincy/Baltimore for PIT, or Arizona to Seattle, or NFC south which is always competitive, or any other division.

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12 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

The biggest advantage that NE has is their division is pathetic.  Even when Miami makes the playoffs, it's because they are an average NFL team which is gifted 4 wins from the Jets and Bills.

Since the NYJ teams with Sanchez, there has not been a legitimate team that ever challenges them in their division.  There is not anything even remotely close to a Stafford Lions or a Vikings defense or Cincy/Baltimore for PIT, or Arizona to Seattle, or NFC south which is always competitive, or any other division.

Since 2008, the NFC North is not that much better.  

    W L T PF PA             W L T PF PA
buffalo   68 92 0 3355 3735         CHI   72 88 0 3406 3665
miami   76 84 0 3254 3540         DET   65 95 0 3568 3996
NYJ   75 85 0 3311 3527         MIN   85 74 1 3639 3474
total 2008-2017   219 261 0 9920 10802         total 2008-2017   222 257 1 10613 11135

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4 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

The biggest advantage that NE has is their division is pathetic.  Even when Miami makes the playoffs, it's because they are an average NFL team which is gifted 4 wins from the Jets and Bills.

Since the NYJ teams with Sanchez, there has not been a legitimate team that ever challenges them in their division.  There is not anything even remotely close to a Stafford Lions or a Vikings defense or Cincy/Baltimore for PIT, or Arizona to Seattle, or NFC south which is always competitive, or any other division.

I agree with most of this.

But the Dolphins, or this year's Bills, are just like "a Stafford Lions."  The Lions have not won the Division and have been pretenders who have not won a single playoff game since well before Stafford arrived in Detroit.

And the Vikes D just got really good in the past couple of years, sort of like the Jets D under Rex was really good for those couple of years. 

 

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How does jacksonville make it work with Telvin Smith at LB?  The dude is tiny.

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1 minute ago, TheOnlyThing said:

I agree with most of this.

But the Dolphins, or this year's Bills, are just like "a Stafford Lions."  The Lions have not won the Division and have been pretenders who have not won a single playoff game since well before Stafford arrived in Detroit.

And the Vikes D just got really good in the past couple of years, sort of like the Jets D under Rex was really good for those couple of years. 

 

Yeah, I just don't agree with this at all.

 

The Bills and Dolphins are no where near as dangerous a team as the Lions or Vikings.  Their records may be the same or similar over that period, but you can't play a bad game against detroit and still win.  NE can play some bad games vs Buffalo and still win on the road.

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1 minute ago, packerjmf said:

I feel like Mike McCarthy called the Steelers’ 4th down play. 

I heard he phoned it in during the timeout.

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What are the chances the Jaguars can beat the Patriots?  I feel like they can easily cover New England's running backs and receivers.  How can they cover Gronkowski though?  And can they score points against them? 

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Steelers are getting Lucille’d. Goddamn. 

(Down on their knees getting their head bashed in, for those who aren’t familiar with The Walking Dead)

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Patriots getting 2 home playoff games against AFC South teams for a trip to the SB really sums up the AFC.

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14 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Since 2008, the NFC North is not that much better.  

 

    W L T PF PA             W L T PF PA
buffalo   68 92 0 3355 3735         CHI   72 88 0 3406 3665
miami   76 84 0 3254 3540         DET   65 95 0 3568 3996
NYJ   75 85 0 3311 3527         MIN   85 74 1 3639 3474
total 2008-2017   219 261 0 9920 10802         total 2008-2017   222 257 1 10613 11135

thanks for pulling this all together!

I do feel that doing bulk stats across a decade hides all of the important details, however.

A season where Minnesota goes 12-4, Chicago goes 8-8 and Detroit goes 4-12 looks the same as Miami going 9-7, Buffalo going 8-8 and NYJ going 7-9. One of those cases as a significantly more difficult opponent, however.

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At this point it's Saints or bust for me. If the Saints lose today, we're looking at a Pats/Vikes SB.

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2 minutes ago, deltarich87 said:

At this point it's Saints or bust for me. If the Saints lose today, we're looking at a Pats/Vikes SB.

You think Vikes win in Philly? Not so sure,  Philly's defense at home is legit.

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