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2018 Free Agency Discussion Thread


AnAngryAmerican

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1 minute ago, paul-mac said:

 

To be fair, Parks has been playing the S/LB hybrid but it's possible they view him as a pure SS when Darian moves on. So we could see a future lineup of Simmons as FS, Parks as SS and Cravens in the S/LB dime hybrid.

Quinton Carter hopefully fits in there, but he's nowhere near a lock.  But yeah, that's kind of what I had in mind....if the Broncos can deploy Cravens properly.  I'm not so sure by how little Parks was used in favor of Davis that we would, though.  So I'm on board with your take that we don't invest anything of note.  I'm willing to give up a 5th, but that might be too much (I'd had it as a conditional 5th-7th depending on playing time in 2018, but the 3rd year of cheap cost control might increase the price accordingly).   I would not even dream of giving up anything close to a top 100 pick, so either 4th is out for me.

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5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Quinton Carter hopefully fits in there, but he's nowhere near a lock.  But yeah, that's kind of what I had in mind....if the Broncos can deploy Cravens properly.  I'm not so sure by how little Parks was used in favor of Davis that we would, though.  So I'm on board with your take that we don't invest anything of note.  I'm willing to give up a 5th, but that might be too much (I'd had it as a conditional 5th-7th depending on playing time in 2018, but the 3rd year of cheap cost control might increase the price accordingly).   I would not even dream of giving up anything close to a top 100 pick, so either 4th is out for me.

Jamal Carter ;) Quinton was a 4th rounder in the first John Elway draft. Decent player as a rookie but injuries really ruined him. 

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1 minute ago, paul-mac said:

Jamal Carter ;) Quinton was a 4th rounder in the first John Elway draft. Decent player as a rookie but injuries really ruined him. 

I stand corrected, brain cramp, definitely don't want the same outcome lol.

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Cravens is a favorite of mine and others. I know he was well regarded around here during the draft a few years ago. I think a big part of Denver's desire to get younger/more talented was hinging on landing him and Ja'Wuan James. Unfortunately, as of now, neither have happened. Cravens would fill a need (multiple needs, maybe) in LB, S depth and someone to cover TEs. That effectively removes that position from our draft needs. It would be beneficial to land him.

On another FA note- why is Cam Flemming still unsigned? Austin Howard too. They're no worse than what we currently have at RT, and both are likely better. It's interesting that we have $23MM in cap space, specifically because we restructured Von to add more. That tells me Elway was swinging for multiple FAs that didn't hit, or he's expecting to land a vet player via trade who could cost some $$$. I can't imagine they'd roll over that much space, but who knows.

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4 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Cravens is a favorite of mine and others. I know he was well regarded around here during the draft a few years ago. I think a big part of Denver's desire to get younger/more talented was hinging on landing him and Ja'Wuan James. Unfortunately, as of now, neither have happened. Cravens would fill a need (multiple needs, maybe) in LB, S depth and someone to cover TEs. That effectively removes that position from our draft needs. It would be beneficial to land him.

On another FA note- why is Cam Flemming still unsigned? Austin Howard too. They're no worse than what we currently have at RT, and both are likely better. It's interesting that we have $23MM in cap space, specifically because we restructured Von to add more. That tells me Elway was swinging for multiple FAs that didn't hit, or he's expecting to land a vet player via trade who could cost some $$$. I can't imagine they'd roll over that much space, but who knows.

 

Yeah it's odd to think they'd roll it over because ultimately that will just end up cancelling out the idea of "borrowing" from next year by restructuring the Miller contract. Maybe it was a case that Miller wanted an advance on his salary so asked for the restructure?

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4 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

Yeah it's odd to think they'd roll it over because ultimately that will just end up cancelling out the idea of "borrowing" from next year by restructuring the Miller contract. Maybe it was a case that Miller wanted an advance on his salary so asked for the restructure?

That's definitely possible. The situation seems odd. I'm guessing Elway had a bunch of things planned, but it doesn't seem the dominoes actually fell.

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2 hours ago, paul-mac said:

 

Yeah it's odd to think they'd roll it over because ultimately that will just end up cancelling out the idea of "borrowing" from next year by restructuring the Miller contract. Maybe it was a case that Miller wanted an advance on his salary so asked for the restructure?

 

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

That's definitely possible. The situation seems odd. I'm guessing Elway had a bunch of things planned, but it doesn't seem the dominoes actually fell.

Well, rollover should definitely be considered, because our 2019 cap situation is in big trouble.   Here's the breakdown:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2019/

Right now, we're 28th out of 32 teams.  Now, that cap includes 3 guys I think are for sure clear no-brainer cuts barring a major turnaround - Menelik Watson (6M saved), one of Sanders or DT (either 10M or 12M saved), and Brandon Marshal (5M saved).   But even then, that 21M added - only gets up to 26th out of 32 teams.  The cap going up for everyone means 30-40M is like having 20M 2-3 years ago (bad situation).

Now, we also have Leary (8M) and Wolfe (8M) we could save a lot of money on - but then we counter those with the fact that Roby, Shelby Harris, Paradis & Peko all are UFA's next year.  Roby will need at least 8-10M to be retained - minimum.   Paradis would need at least 6M, more likely 8M.  Harris won't be a cheap bargain if he plays well.    The list goes on.  At best, we break even - but it's actually more likely we use up more 2019 cap - unless we backload deals heavily to break even - but that will only make us cap-poor later, something Elway's resisted. 

Bottom line - we should NOT be investing in 2018 stopgaps who aren't future 2019 investments.  Because we're in major trouble if we use up all our 2018 remaining space on guys who won't help us in 2019.   And we're not legit contenders this year.   If a guy is dirt-cheap and it's 2018 only, OK.  If it's anything beyond that, there should be some 2019 value baked in.   A guy like Juwan James, even though he was only signed for 1 year, was likely to be extended (or at least return us a nice comp pick if we could not retain him), so that's fine, if the trade price wasn't crazy - but that ship has sailed.  It's why I push for guys like Cam Meredith, because I'm also looking for 2019 value, not just this year. 

Now, there's one clear way out of cap hell - draft a LOT better.  And that's also where @paul-mac's point about exploring rookie QB as our starter (and where we'd save 15M if we traded Keenum in 2019 really comes into play).  If we stick with Keenum at QB for 2019, well, we better start being way better at drafting guys who can help us Year 2+.   Again, it's why we should take overall BPA talents early - because our 2019 needs are pretty much everywhere.   

We are headed for an ugly, untenable cap situation in 2019-20 if we don't hit on draft picks to be 2019 starters from this current and last year's draft.   Rookie deal value picks are how teams stay in contention, and/or get out cap hell.  I said it last year, and while it's still early, we only have Bolles to show for it, and at best  he's league-average right now.   I have hope for Butt, Walker has to put on weight and refine more technique (but at least he's put in the right spot at DE), but everyone else is a huge Q mark.  We need Day 1-2 guys to be league-average or better from our draft classes starting in Year 2 onwards - not year 4 (or bust completely).   

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

Well, rollover should definitely be considered, because our 2019 cap situation is in big trouble.   Here's the breakdown:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2019/

Right now, we're 28th out of 32 teams.  Now, that cap includes 3 guys I think are for sure clear no-brainer cuts barring a major turnaround - Menelik Watson (6M saved), one of Sanders or DT (either 10M or 12M saved), and Brandon Marshal (5M saved).   But even then, that 21M added - only gets up to 26th out of 32 teams.  The cap going up for everyone means 30-40M is like having 20M 2-3 years ago (bad situation).

Now, we also have Leary (8M) and Wolfe (8M) we could save a lot of money on - but then we counter those with the fact that Roby, Shelby Harris, Paradis & Peko all are UFA's next year.  Roby will need at least 8-10M to be retained - minimum.   Paradis would need at least 6M, more likely 8M.  Harris won't be a cheap bargain if he plays well.    The list goes on.  At best, we break even - but it's actually more likely we use up more 2019 cap - unless we backload deals heavily to break even - but that will only make us cap-poor later, something Elway's resisted. 

Bottom line - we should NOT be investing in 2018 stopgaps who aren't future 2019 investments.  Because we're in major trouble if we use up all our 2018 remaining space on guys who won't help us in 2019.   And we're not legit contenders this year.   If a guy is dirt-cheap and it's 2018 only, OK.  If it's anything beyond that, there should be some 2019 value baked in.   A guy like Juwan James, even though he was only signed for 1 year, was likely to be extended (or at least return us a nice comp pick if we could not retain him), so that's fine, if the trade price wasn't crazy - but that ship has sailed.  It's why I push for guys like Cam Meredith, because I'm also looking for 2019 value, not just this year. 

Now, there's one clear way out of cap hell - draft a LOT better.  And that's also where @paul-mac's point about exploring rookie QB as our starter (and where we'd save 15M if we traded Keenum in 2019 really comes into play).  If we stick with Keenum at QB for 2019, well, we better start being way better at drafting guys who can help us Year 2+.   Again, it's why we should take overall BPA talents early - because our 2019 needs are pretty much everywhere.   

We are headed for an ugly, untenable cap situation in 2019-20 if we don't hit on draft picks to be 2019 starters from this current and last year's draft.   Rookie deal value picks are how teams stay in contention, and/or get out cap hell.  I said it last year, and while it's still early, we only have Bolles to show for it, and at best  he's league-average right now.   I have hope for Butt, Walker has to put on weight and refine more technique (but at least he's put in the right spot at DE), but everyone else is a huge Q mark.  We need guys to be league-average or better from our draft classes starting in Year 2 onwards - not year 4 (or bust completely).   

 

 

Keenum 21 mil

Anderson 4.5 mil

Mcmanus 4 mi

Lynch 3 mil 

All still on the books as well

Another reason Elway might go QB.   If a rookie is ready to roll next year you can clear 2 of our bigger contracts off the books

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1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

That was a mind numbingly stupid move. I like McManus but my god. Unrelated, but they could very well find a new punter this draft because Dixon is garbage.

We did not rip that move nearly enough because we didn't know what a disaster the team was going to be 

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The Turner deal is official. 

The vet min is 745k but if you sign without a bonus over 60k teams get a cap hit of 580k (so it avoids teams going cheap for vets) - but only if it’s one year deal and no more than the 60k signing bonus.  

So either we throw away 750k and cut him or use him for 2M as a backup we don’t really want to ever take meaningful snaps.    With no potential for growth. 

It’s not a deal breaker by itself but given our cap situation it’s a big meh at the signing.  Like the 4M we wasted on Donald Stephenson last year IMO.   Our OL was awful yet we think our backups need more than min wage to return?  Ugh.  

 

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