John Elway’s career stats and our current QB situation.

[Zukhyubern]

As we enter possibly our franchise’s most pivotal QB search ever, I thought it might be interesting to look at Elway’s career trajectory and stats.  I vaguely recall previous posts like this from my decade or so on this site, but as pertinent as ever to revisit. 

1) Elways career passer rating is 79.9. He ranks 72nd, tied with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now obviously this statistic more and more favors contemporary QBs but this is quite average. Some have argued that there is a clear correlation between wins and passer rating, but I would argue against that.

2) His career TD:INT ratio was 300-226, ratio being 1.377. That’s not great!! In fact, Elways turned the ball over a ton. He is 5th all-time in fumbles lost. Can you guess who is number one? 

3) With a career record of 148-82-1 and a winning percentage of .640, he ranks 4th all time in wins and 10th all time in win percentage for QBs with at least 100 games started. (For example Russell Wilson ranks 4th with a .681% and Peyton Manning 3rd with a .685%) But what we all remember (I’d hope) is that Elway was the true “comeback kid,” which by the time he retired a two-time Super Bowl champ he was the king of. Currently he is 5th in 4QC, behind, in ascending order: Johnny Unitas and Dan Marino (36), Tom Brady (41) and Peyton Manning (45). 

4) Elway is second in the career sacked list, second to only Favre (of course). The only two active QBs in the top 10 are Ben Roethlisberger (477) and Tom Brady (452).

 5) Seventh in career passing yards, with 51,475. Active players he trails are Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. By the end of 2018 it almost certain he will be surpassed by Roethlisberger and Rivers as well. 

6) This one was striking to me.. 56.9 completion percentage. This ranks 92nd all-time. Elway was very inaccurate! For every pinpoint rocket of a throw in the end zone he had a dozen flops and terrible overthrows..

Elway’s career defines the “gunslinger” mentality. He constantly took risks and paid for them. But I’m the end there was no other leader you’d want for your football team. He was a natural born leader and took the Broncos to five Super Bowls as a player. And this is a guy with mediocre completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and passer rating. All three stats most commonly used to argue for or against young signal callers today  

Do these stats have any bearing on our QB search? I’m not sure. It’s interesting to me that a guy who had so much fire as a competitor and a knack for winning against all odds would be so awful st scouting quarterbacks. But maybe he saw something in Paxton or Brock, and even maybe Siemian, that he thought would transcend on paper statistics or pure passing ability? The only thing certain is that he has never had the potential value of a #5 pick. And let’s say he decides it worth it to trade up for one of Darnold or Rosen, are either of these guys going to illicit the same feelings? 

Not sure I have a conclusion here but I imagine that he’s salivating at the prospect of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Allen. All 4 players are also gunslinger types. And in the case of Allen and Darnold especially, do not always exhibit the best passer ratings, or completion percentages. Both turn the ball over than you’d like. But maybe Elway does have a feel for the intangibles and up until now just hadn’t hit on the right prospect.  People keep saying that no way Elway will chance another 1st round prospect but I am beginning to expect it. 

[germ-x]

I still think Elway goes all in for Cousins if he hits the market.  I think Elway wants to turn the ship around as quickly as possible and acquiring Cousins does that.

If Cousins isn’t available though I could see Elway falling in love with Josh Allen.  

[Broncofan]

Two comments on Elway's #'s & current situation:

1.  Dan Marino's completion percentage was 59.9 percent.   It was a different era back in the 1980's/90's than it is today.    Elway was a gunslinger, but he wasn't OMG inaccurate as a comparison with other guys.

2.  Darnold's issues this year are with TO's - not with accuracy.  Much like with Jameis Winston in his final year, though, he tried to take on a team who lost much of their O talent and carry them too much (USC lost 3 starters on OL, JuJu and Adoree Jackson who played WR too).   His fumbles might be a real issue, if his hands are really small.  But Darnold's problems are really different than Allen's - Allen's all raw physical talent, much poorer competition faced, and he's not that accurate at all.    

[7DnBrnc53]

On 1/13/2018 at 5:10 AM, Zukhyubern said:

6) This one was striking to me.. 56.9 completion percentage. This ranks 92nd all-time. Elway was very inaccurate! For every pinpoint rocket of a throw in the end zone he had a dozen flops and terrible overthrows..

That had to do with the antiquated offensive scheme that he played in during the Dan Reeves years. Ex-Bronco WR Steve Watson called it the Edsel System because it wasn't concerned as much with attacking a defense as it was protection (there were times where they only sent three receivers out in a pattern, while Brady's and Montana's offenses always send/sent five).

Also, for the first two years after Dan Reeves left (1993 and 94), his percentages went up to 63.2 and 62.1 while working with Jim Fassel (his QB coach at Stanford).

[jsthomp2007]

This is a post? 

[Zukhyubern]

2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

This is a post? 

^this? No 

[thebestever6]

I just don't get what effect what type of qb elway was has to do with what we do at the position going forward. He is shorter than Brock and Lynch. He was smarter than both, he was more of a sure thing coming out. I will exclude Manning because he was a free agent.

If the question is can Paxton rebound like Elway did after he struggled early in his career. Id also say no because 1) Paxton can't even get on the field 2) Paxton has shown zero flashes against first stringers.

Elway went to Stanford he was smart and athletic the qbs he drafted have shown none  of that. I think this covers everything.  

The only effect John's playing career has on our qbs is what type of coordinator we have. Because if you think less you play faster and are more fluid .

[AKRNA]

So, you guys ever watched Redford as the Sundance Kid? Best line of the movie "I have to move". That's Redford describing his accuracy, standing still and aiming he couldn't hit squat, quick snap draw and he'd shoot the eyes out of a gnat.

That was Elway guys. Most dangerous QB out of the pocket in history. It was only his last few years that he spent a majority of his time in the pocket but even then his most remembered and spectacular play is the handle of one of our great posters " THE HELICOPTER".

IMO, stats mean nothing when talking about Elway. He'd miss a short pass from the pocket on one play and the next he'd throw a "frozen rope" sixty yards, across his body, running for his life for a completion the next. He's the most physically gifted QB to ever play the game. No one else I've ever seen could make the throws he did. He was and is the "Gold Standard".

Here's the funny part. To really have appreciated him you have to be a minimum of 50 yo to have really watched him play. IMO, he's the GOAT. He never had the system or the talent around him that Brady, Montana, Unitas had but drug 5 teams to the SB almost by willpower. The perfect QB would have Marino's mind and Elways body.

You guys are all great and knowledgeable football fans. I really, really wish you would've been around to see him. It was pretty amazing stuff!

The rest of you older posters know exactly what I mean. Fun to watch wasn't he?

 

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

So, you guys ever watched Redford as the Sundance Kid? Best line of the movie "I have to move". That's Redford describing his accuracy, standing still and aiming he couldn't hit squat, quick snap draw and he'd shoot the eyes out of a gnat.

That was Elway guys. Most dangerous QB out of the pocket in history. It was only his last few years that he spent a majority of his time in the pocket but even then his most remembered and spectacular play is the handle of one of our great posters " THE HELICOPTER".

IMO, stats mean nothing when talking about Elway. He'd miss a short pass from the pocket on one play and the next he'd throw a "frozen rope" sixty yards, across his body, running for his life for a completion the next. He's the most physically gifted QB to ever play the game. No one else I've ever seen could make the throws he did. He was and is the "Gold Standard".

Here's the funny part. To really have appreciated him you have to be a minimum of 50 yo to have really watched him play. IMO, he's the GOAT. He never had the system or the talent around him that Brady, Montana, Unitas had but drug 5 teams to the SB almost by willpower. The perfect QB would have Marino's mind and Elways body.

You guys are all great and knowledgeable football fans. I really, really wish you would've been around to see him. It was pretty amazing stuff!

The rest of you older posters know exactly what I mean. Fun to watch wasn't he?

 

I grew up watching him play.  I'd echo the sentiment on how good he was.   The other part was Dan Reeves playing ultra-conservative ball, getting DEN behind, and then going to Elway in the late 3Q/4Q and then letting him loose - Elway was put in check by Reeves' system until it was clear they needed to open it up.  TBH, the only WR who was near-elite was Rod Smith, the 3 Amigos were guys he made better.   Sharpe was an elite TE, and obviously TD was a key with the OL, but no doubt, Elway made guys better around him.   The system and Reevers and the era limited his statistical output vs. today's #'s.   Context is so key here. 

The era was also really different - really accurate passers were 60 percent guys, it's a different game now with WC based O's.

[AKRNA]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I grew up watching him play.  I'd echo the sentiment on how good he was.   The other part was Dan Reeves playing ultra-conservative ball, getting DEN behind, and then going to Elway in the late 3Q/4Q and then letting him loose - Elway was put in check by Reeves' system until it was clear they needed to open it up.  TBH, the only WR who was near-elite was Rod Smith, the 3 Amigos were guys he made better.   Sharpe was an elite TE, and obviously TD was a key with the OL, but no doubt, Elway made guys better around him.   The system and Reevers and the era limited his statistical output vs. today's #'s.   Context is so key here. 

The era was also really different - really accurate passers were 60 percent guys, it's a different game now with WC based O's.

You're forgetting Eddie Mac, toughest, most sure handed WR I've ever seen.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

You're forgetting Eddie Mac, toughest, most sure handed WR I've ever seen.

I tend to forget the slow(er) white guys.  But yes, that's fair lol.

[AKRNA]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I tend to forget the slow(er) white guys.  But yes, that's fair lol.

Yep. he also was very fun to watch, both he and Rod. Both of them, great run blockers, liked contact, caught everything they touched. Funny thing about Eddie, he was faster than his kid. A 4.35 guy. Nothing slow about him.

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Yep. he also was very fun to watch, both he and Rod. Both of them, great run blockers, liked contact, caught everything they touched. Funny thing about Eddie, he was faster than his kid. A 4.35 guy. Nothing slow about him.

I think you have his son Max on your mind (he ran the 4.35) - Ed Sr. was quick for his size, but not 4.35 fast - at least, not at the Combine - and as you know, the home-cooked #'s are always a little suspect.  

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Ed&l=Mccaffrey&i=25098

Either way, though, speed wasn't his game though.   He was the guy unafraid to go over the middle, and so precise in his patterns.  Definitely belongs in the near-elite WR group with Rod.    It's ironic that when Elway's physical talent had gone past his peak, the great talent finally surrounded him.   For a long, long time it looked like 0-4 was Elway's destiny.  

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think you have his son Max on your mind - McCaffrey was quick for his size, but not 4.35 fast - at least, not at the Combine - and as you know, the home-cooked #'s are always a little suspect.  

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Ed&l=Mccaffrey&i=25098

Either way, though, speed wasn't his game though.   He was the guy unafraid to go over the middle, and so precise in his patterns.  It's ironic that when Elway's physical talent had gone past his peak, the great talent finally surrounded him.   For a long, long time it looked like 0-4 was Elway's destiny.  

He did make his living over the middle. Way tough. Rod was the king of the 7 yard slant. Also, way tough. Best set of WR's this team has ever had. Sorry DT and Manny fans, they're a distant second.

Both Rod and Eddie beat their opposing CB's physically, they hurt 'em. By the 4th quarter CB's would turn their backs on 'em. Opposing CB's got really tired of both of them.

[champ11]

One of my clearest football memories (post SB) is McCaffrey breaking his leg in the season opener against the Giants