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How good would Antonio Brown be with...


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26 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

in a dome for 10+ games a year and a really accurate passer and a coach that is offensive minded, I could see  2000 yard seasons 

Brown was 166 off in 2015 when Ben didn't play 4 games, This year he was on pace for 1857 across 16 games before he went down with an injury. Honestly the more I think about it the more I'm sure he would have done it already.

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23 minutes ago, TXsteeler said:

Brown was 166 off in 2015 when Ben didn't play 4 games, This year he was on pace for 1857 across 16 games before he went down with an injury. Honestly the more I think about it the more I'm sure he would have done it already.

no doubt, I am being conservative as they say.  No concerns wit 84 being ready or making plays. Even injured, look at the 2 catches he made with Bouye having great coverage (and some DPI to help).  Many players today would have whined to the ref and gave up on the play, but AB decided to get the TD. When possibly the best CB in the league (Bouye never allowed a TD all season)  allows 2 TDs and throws his arms up as in WTF , it says it all. 

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Seriously doubt it. Both Brees and Brady likes to spread their targets out. In the 2015 season you're referencing Brown had almost 200 targets (193). Don't think any of neither Brees nor Brady's guys has had that many targets. For example, 2007 Moss had 160 targets, almost 20% less. Colston, who I'd assume was Brees favorite target that season had 143, over 25% less. In Brees' highest yardage season (2011 with 5476 yards), his top target was Jimmy Graham with 149, 23% less than Brown. So either Brown would need to be force fed even more than he already is, or he'd need to up his game significantly. None of which seems likely.  

Stat-padding wise, I don't think Brown could be in any better system or surrounding than PIT. 

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7 hours ago, evilflamingo said:

Seriously doubt it. Both Brees and Brady likes to spread their targets out. In the 2015 season you're referencing Brown had almost 200 targets (193). Don't think any of neither Brees nor Brady's guys has had that many targets. For example, 2007 Moss had 160 targets, almost 20% less. Colston, who I'd assume was Brees favorite target that season had 143, over 25% less. In Brees' highest yardage season (2011 with 5476 yards), his top target was Jimmy Graham with 149, 23% less than Brown. So either Brown would need to be force fed even more than he already is, or he'd need to up his game significantly. None of which seems likely.  

Stat-padding wise, I don't think Brown could be in any better system or surrounding than PIT. 

So are we going to ignore that Wes Welker had 173 and 175 targets in back to back years?

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On 1/14/2018 at 12:13 PM, tom cody said:

Brown's good enough to be a quality receiver with any QB but him getting the ball from Brady would be great.

2007 Patriots all over again.

The most broken* offensive I've ever seen in my life.

 

*Broken = godlike, great, Joe Flacco in 2012 Playoffs

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16 minutes ago, skywlker32 said:

So are we going to ignore that Wes Welker had 173 and 175 targets in back to back years?

Nah, but going off Brown's 2015 pace (yards/target), that puts him around 1650 yards. So what you're asking us to do is take Brady's highest target total ever and then add another 20%. Or, as I said, you're asking Brown to significantly up his catch-% and/or increase his avg/catch. 

And of course, I understand that catch numbers are highly correlated to QB play. Just found the assumption that Brown would "no doubt" get 2k with Brady a bit silly. 

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1 minute ago, evilflamingo said:

Nah, but going off Brown's 2015 pace (yards/target), that puts him around 1650 yards. So what you're asking us to do is take Brady's highest target total ever and then add another 20%. Or, as I said, you're asking Brown to significantly up his game to catch a higher % of targets and/or increase his avg/catch. 

You aren't very good at math are you? Hint, 20% is way wrong. My point is that you are misrepresenting the disparity by leaving out the highest two targeted years for a player. I also think Brown would be targeted more than Welker was and is a similar type of player, but with more ability overall and much better after the catch.

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3 minutes ago, skywlker32 said:

You aren't very good at math are you? Hint, 20% is way wrong. My point is that you are misrepresenting the disparity by leaving out the highest two targeted years for a player. I also think Brown would be targeted more than Welker was and is a similar type of player, but with more ability overall and much better after the catch.

And what's your calculator telling you, professor? 

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Just now, skywlker32 said:

10%, but thanks for the "smart" response.

Then please break it down for me, cause I'm pretty sure you are wrong. 

10% of 175 is what? 17.5 right? Add 17.5 to 175 and what do you get? 192.5?

192.5 multiplied with 9.5 (which is pretty much Browns 2015 yards/target pace) is 1829, still 170 yards short.

I'll let you do the math with 20%...

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Just now, evilflamingo said:

Then please break it down for me, cause I'm pretty sure you are wrong. 

10% of 175 is what? 17.5 right? Add 17.5 to 175 and what do you get? 192.5?

192.5 multiplied with 9.5 (which is pretty much Browns 2015 yards/target pace) is 1829, still 170 yards short.

I'll let you do the math with 20%...

You do realize yards per catch is not a constant here right? Excuse me if I didn't follow all of your assumptions, as that was a large jump in logic...

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3 minutes ago, skywlker32 said:

You do realize yards per catch is not a constant here right? Excuse me if I didn't follow all of your assumptions, as that was a large jump in logic...

Backing down on that math thing, are we professor? 

Of course, if you increase Brown's yards/catch, or his catch ratio from the 2015 season the result would be different (change them enough and you can have him go for 4k yards if you want). As I've stated twice in the posts you have quoted.

Anyway, I've made my point, thanks for playing and don't worry, the paint will dry. 

painting-yourself-into-a-corner-fymc72.j

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3 minutes ago, evilflamingo said:

Backing down on that math thing, are we professor? 

Of course, if you increase Brown's yards/catch, or his catch ratio from the 2015 season the result would be different (change them enough and you can have him go for 4k yards if you want). As I've stated twice in the posts you have quoted.

Anyway, I've made my point, thanks for playing and don't worry, the paint will dry. 

painting-yourself-into-a-corner-fymc72.j

It looked to me like you were trying to say that it would take 20% to get to Brown's highest catch total, especially since we were only talking catch totals at that point. It is very apparent also that even that season was majorly affected by poor QB play with Ben out. With Vick and Jones, Brown's catch percentage and yards per reception dropped significantly. The idea is that with a similar target rate or even slightly lower, Brown has a very high chance to get to 2000. I never argued that he would be a shoe in for 2000 most years, but to act like he wouldn't have had a VERY good chance in years like the years where Welker had over 170 targets to get 2000 is silly.

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17 hours ago, evilflamingo said:

Seriously doubt it. Both Brees and Brady likes to spread their targets out. In the 2015 season you're referencing Brown had almost 200 targets (193). Don't think any of neither Brees nor Brady's guys has had that many targets. For example, 2007 Moss had 160 targets, almost 20% less. Colston, who I'd assume was Brees favorite target that season had 143, over 25% less. In Brees' highest yardage season (2011 with 5476 yards), his top target was Jimmy Graham with 149, 23% less than Brown. So either Brown would need to be force fed even more than he already is, or he'd need to up his game significantly. None of which seems likely.  

Stat-padding wise, I don't think Brown could be in any better system or surrounding than PIT. 

Im not necessarily saying you are wrong (because you arent), but Brady and Brees have never had targets like Brown.    Yes, Brady had Moss, but he was a different type of WR.   As another Steeler fan mentioned, Brown is taillor made for what Brady likes to do.    If Brady had the same trust in Brown as Ben does, I promise you, Brady would be throwing the ball to places he would trust any other target he has ever had (aside from Moss),     On top of that, he does pretty much everything Welker did, but better.

I will say, however, I dont necessarily think Brown would have higher stats in New England.    I mean, he could....but if he was in that offense with Gronk, I think Gronk's numbers would actually skyrocket, because teams wouldnt constantly have to bracket Brown.   Teams have a hard enough time covering Gronk even with just decent WRs on the roster.    Put Brown on the outside.....I mean, it would literally be impossible to stop short of signing Bernard Pollard.  

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