What have you learned from draft busts?

[BleedTheClock]

What are some of the busts you went all in on? Why did they bust? What traits did you ignore or downplay that made you re-evaluate how you scout guys?

 

A few of mine:

I failed on Chance Warmack and Joshua Garnett. I fell in love with their raw power and run blocking ability, but I downplayed how important balance is. Both struggled--even in college--at maintaining contact balance. They tended to lunge in both pass and run blocking and it resulted in some horrendous whiffs and negative plays. You need rocks on your OL and guys that operate on that unit that make "splash plays/blocks" are not desirable.

I failed on Cordarrelle Patterson. I saw him in space and fell in love. I started to realize that ripping apart underneath zones is not something that NFL teams let you do. You're going to see a ton of man coverage and NFL athletes are good enough to run vertical with guys like that. You need to have the ability to create separation with your route running and short area quickness. I also failed on linear route runner Aaron Dobson. I thought he would dominate running vertical routes down the seam, but he was another guy that couldn't detach from the hip of defenders.

 I failed on Robert Nkemdiche...thus far. I was blown away by his explosiveness off the ball. I devalued how important hand usage is. I devalued his questionable effort and consistency. But mainly, I gave him a pass for just bull rushing into the OL every single play instead of using his hands. He has struggled so far to make an impact in Arizona and I believe poor hand usage is one of the culprits.

 

I've failed 100000x before and I'll do it again, but these are a few of the guys that made me re-evaluate how I scout.

[Epyon]

My recent worsts had to have been:

 

1. Bud Dupree-OLB

I just put entirely too much value on the generational athleticism over the skillset/intelligence.... OLB needs both.

 

2. Rasheed Hageman-DT being remotely comparable to Aaron Donald during that draft class.

I bit hard on ideal size/framed player with upside... Donald's elite level combine put him back over the top on my board eventually... but it was still somehow very CLOSE in my mind going into that draft.

 

3. Dri Archer-RB/Gadget Weapon

This one I'm still frustrated by... You saw the flash he had in one of his preseason games where he gashed a team for a huge play out of essentially nothing.... but man did he end up bombing in the league. I made a similar mistake with Tavon Austin... Too much credit given to speed/elusiveness too little credit given to size.... Though I guess Tarik Cohen this year has been doing a pretty decent job of making me yet again re-evaluate (the flip side of that coin this year is I thought Donnel Pumphrey-RB/WR would also find some success this year)

 

The one my team made:

Kevin White-WR:

I now have a -very- strong bias against any WRs who can't run routes well because of him (and also in part because of the Devin Hester @ WR experiment we tried some years before that) .... Even discounting his horrific string of injuries, he's just been an all around let down even when he has been on the field..... Elite level athlete that has no speed (via his leg injuries), big body frame that doesn't play contested passes very well, and he's a outright terrible route runner. Like the Bud Dupree @ OLB example above.... The team drafted an athlete, with the expectation that the mental side of the game could be entirely taught, and it just can't from what I've seen.  If they suck at running routes, in my mind they just suck at playing receiver.  It's a big part of the reason I'm very low on the James Washington-WR this year, and very high on Calvin Ridley-WR.

[Scoundrel]

Two Players I really liked at my favorite position and a position I scout decently well that I whiffed on were Derron Smith and Terrence Brooks.

I hit on Earl Thomas and was the first person I remember on a different site to even consider him a top prospect. My infatuation with him led me to try and strike gold again with two other smaller safeties. 

Smith I ignored the lack of athleticism needed at the next level for his instincts and ball hawking ability. 

Brooks I ignored the lack of quickness and questionable instincts at time for impressive long speed and range I saw in college for a shorter safety.

I'm sure there are other reasons these two didn't pan out to the level I thought they could. But what I learned is instincts, quickness, athleticism, long speed, physicality is the obvious basic makeup of  a good balanced safety. There are exceptions obviously. Also don't fall in love with prospects and try and cast your past success on them because you think they can be similar players. Scout them without this hope in your mind. 

[pnies20]

Overall you should learn that a good pro is a perfect storm of factors: technique, production and physical ability. If any of these or only one of these are present, the player will have a lot more work to do to be serviceable in the league.

 

edit to add: obviously these aren't the only factors (personality, off the field issues, injury history, etc.) but these are the most important in scouting a player, IMO. 

[CalhounLambeau]

Players are a puzzle with all kinds of different pieces and different skills combinations. There is usually more than one reason why they didn't work out. Learning from misses is extremely difficult. You can always point to one thing and make it seem easy but it usually isn't the case.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

16 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

What are some of the busts you went all in on? Why did they bust? What traits did you ignore or downplay that made you re-evaluate how you scout guys?

 

A few of mine:

I failed on Chance Warmack and Joshua Garnett. I fell in love with their raw power and run blocking ability, but I downplayed how important balance is. Both struggled--even in college--at maintaining contact balance. They tended to lunge in both pass and run blocking and it resulted in some horrendous whiffs and negative plays. You need rocks on your OL and guys that operate on that unit that make "splash plays/blocks" are not desirable.

I failed on Cordarrelle Patterson. I saw him in space and fell in love. I started to realize that ripping apart underneath zones is not something that NFL teams let you do. You're going to see a ton of man coverage and NFL athletes are good enough to run vertical with guys like that. You need to have the ability to create separation with your route running and short area quickness. I also failed on linear route runner Aaron Dobson. I thought he would dominate running vertical routes down the seam, but he was another guy that couldn't detach from the hip of defenders.

 I failed on Robert Nkemdiche...thus far. I was blown away by his explosiveness off the ball. I devalued how important hand usage is. I devalued his questionable effort and consistency. But mainly, I gave him a pass for just bull rushing into the OL every single play instead of using his hands. He has struggled so far to make an impact in Arizona and I believe poor hand usage is one of the culprits.

 

I've failed 100000x before and I'll do it again, but these are a few of the guys that made me re-evaluate how I scout.

Garnett still isn't out of the running yet. He got hurt. Next year will be a huge indicator where he's heading I think. Apparently he's on some intense diet right now instituted by Lynch and company. From a statement a while back John seemed to have a huge amount of confidence in Garnett being a key contributor in the future. Shall be interesting. That being said as a fan I still want the 49ers to get a big name in the offseason at the guard spot. Either make a run at Norwell if he's available, or try and grab Nelson in the draft.  

[Iamcanadian]

I certainly missed out on Manziel, of course, I had no way of knowing what an idiot he turned out to be and how uncommitted to pro football he was. It is easy for people to say in hindsight, that he showed all the signs, but he went in round 1 and pro teams have far more access to facts about a prospects character than I am ever able to see, so I really had no way of knowing just how bad a character he was.

[49erurtaza]

25 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Garnett still isn't out of the running yet. He got hurt. Next year will be a huge indicator where he's heading I think. Apparently he's on some intense diet right now instituted by Lynch and company. From a statement a while back John seemed to have a huge amount of confidence in Garnett being a key contributor in the future. Shall be interesting. That being said as a fan I still want the 49ers to get a big name in the offseason at the guard spot. Either make a run at Norwell if he's available, or try and grab Nelson in the draft.  

Idk if it's going to work out there trying to make him a finesse guy where he excel's with power.

[BleedTheClock]

11 hours ago, Epyon said:

My recent worsts had to have been:

 

1. Bud Dupree-OLB

I just put entirely too much value on the generational athleticism over the skillset/intelligence.... OLB needs both.

 

2. Rasheed Hageman-DT being remotely comparable to Aaron Donald during that draft class.

I bit hard on ideal size/framed player with upside... Donald's elite level combine put him back over the top on my board eventually... but it was still somehow very CLOSE in my mind going into that draft.

 

3. Dri Archer-RB/Gadget Weapon

This one I'm still frustrated by... You saw the flash he had in one of his preseason games where he gashed a team for a huge play out of essentially nothing.... but man did he end up bombing in the league. I made a similar mistake with Tavon Austin... Too much credit given to speed/elusiveness too little credit given to size.... Though I guess Tarik Cohen this year has been doing a pretty decent job of making me yet again re-evaluate (the flip side of that coin this year is I thought Donnel Pumphrey-RB/WR would also find some success this year)

 

The one my team made:

Kevin White-WR:

I now have a -very- strong bias against any WRs who can't run routes well because of him (and also in part because of the Devin Hester @ WR experiment we tried some years before that) .... Even discounting his horrific string of injuries, he's just been an all around let down even when he has been on the field..... Elite level athlete that has no speed (via his leg injuries), big body frame that doesn't play contested passes very well, and he's a outright terrible route runner. Like the Bud Dupree @ OLB example above.... The team drafted an athlete, with the expectation that the mental side of the game could be entirely taught, and it just can't from what I've seen.  If they suck at running routes, in my mind they just suck at playing receiver.  It's a big part of the reason I'm very low on the James Washington-WR this year, and very high on Calvin Ridley-WR.

I actually hated Bud Dupree. He was soft as hell in college and so much of his production came off of broken blocking schemes. I was so pumped when my rival team (Pitt) took him. He’s actually better now than I gave him credit for in the draft, as he’s maybe only slightly below average for a starter. Conversely though, I thought Shazier was a bad pick by them too. That has been false.

 

Freaking Rashede Hageman....I thought he was going to be the next big thing as a DT. Freaky size and movement skills, but again, very little hand usage and it seemed like he was poorly conditioned. I thought he was the next dominant 5-Technique.

As for Tarik Cohen, he ran hard between the tackles in college. He pressed the hole and didn’t look to get outside. Dri Archer was never asked to run between the tackles at Kent State. They are 2 different runners...but yeah, I fell for the Dri Archer hype too. He seemed, at the very least, like a superstar return man.

 

I was never as high on Kevin White as others were. There were arguments on the boards about who was better between he and Amari Cooper. I saw White as a late 1st rounder while pimping Cooper as the drafts top player. I came around on him late because of the freaky combine numbers. I expected him to time “meh” in the 40, but he blew it away. I lost sight of my previous “meh” feelings about him and bought into him as being a #1. I feel bad for him though.

[big_palooka]

Laquon Treadwell is a recent one for me. Ignored the 40 and how he caught a lot of balls open in zone coverage. Made the cliché mistake of comparing his type WR (those who lack speed) to Anquan Bolden. Looking back, he couldn't beat good CBs off press man in college. 

[RuskieTitan]

Vernon Gholston taught me to never trust OSU edge rushers. Good thing we didn't draft that Joey Bosa.

[ET80]

Justin Gilbert taught me to never trust Big 12 DBs. 

JJ Watt taught me that I don't know much about this (didn't like the pick at the time).

[48 1/2ers]

I loved Johnny Football, dude was essentially what Baker Mayfield is for people this year. like @Iamcanadian said character stuff just destroyed the on field potential of the guy. He had an uphill battle due to some physical limitations but a more mature man would have handled it better. As a result I dont like Mayfield as much this year, thats just the reaction I have. 

Another guy I loved was Taylor Mays back in the day. I was much younger and didnt really put everything I saw on tape together like I think I do now, but he's a guy I think I'd love again if he were coming out as a hybrid LB/Safety but in reality he's trash. 

[Elusive_Tiger]

This past year I missed on JuJu Smith Schuster and Desmond King.

 

I hit big time on William Jackson III in 2016 and Jarrad Davis (had him very high).

[Rich7sena]

On 1/14/2018 at 7:41 PM, BleedTheClock said:

What are some of the busts you went all in on? Why did they bust? What traits did you ignore or downplay that made you re-evaluate how you scout guys?

I think the closest and one of the only players I went all in on who "busted" was Owamagbe Odighizuwa. I pretty sure I had him top 15 in his class. I think I overrated his straight line athleticism. Now, I factor 3-cone time much higher.