What have you learned from draft busts?

[BleedTheClock]

Just now, Rich7sena said:

I think the closest and one of the only players I went all in on who "busted" was Owamagbe Odighizuwa. I pretty sure I had him top 15 in his class. I think I overrated his straight line athleticism. Now, I factor 3-cone time much higher.

Yeah I was shocked he is out of the league now. He was a big strong dude that ran like a deer. Not even really sure why he busted to be honest. Never really saw him play in the NFL.

[Rich7sena]

6 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Yeah I was shocked he is out of the league now. He was a big strong dude that ran like a deer. Not even really sure why he busted to be honest. Never really saw him play in the NFL.

Injuries, suspensions, and some unidentified off-field stuff didn't help. Athletically, he looked like a perfect base end and nickel 3 tech.

[thebestever6]

I've always been into qbs because they've been the most instrumental position. And I think it's funny the way they make or break a franchise.

Some I was right on.

1) Big Ben- loved his frame and skill set. Thought he played great for a mac player. You could just tell he was a franchise qb. I wanted Denver to trade up from 17 for him. You could tell he wasn't just a 3rd qb hyped espn prospect.

2) Russell Wislon- loved his skill set. I thought he was by far the most undervalued qb since Brady.  Prostyle offense. He had production in a prostyle offense, was smart just didn't think his ceiling was this high.

3) Aaron Rodgers went from the number 1 qb to dropping in the draft. Didn't feel like the Jimmy Clausen overhyped pick. Felt more like he was accurately slotted and dropped for no reason. Later found out it was the cap issue.

Qbs wrong on

Rg3- he was touted as a extremely athletic all the tools plus some. Thought he had more tools than Luck.  His Iq was off the chart. I really think the situation hurt him.

Paxton Lynch - I just bought in improved every year and had great pocket awareness in college again was wrong on how he'd translate. Overhyped.

Cam Newton - thought he'd be the flash in the pan Kap was. Thought his game would not translate at all for the next level. He's played very well above my draft evaluation.

[BleedTheClock]

@thebestever6I also missed on Paxton Lynch. I thought he was going to be a Cam Newton-like player in the NFL. Not nearly as athletic, but in terms of a big arm QB that could move and make plays with his feet. Turns out he's a pile of dookie.

I suck at evaluating QB's except for a few of the more obvious ones. It's the only position I have never coached or played and I don't really understand the mechanics as well as I need to. I can tell when someone's footwork is good or bad, but I can't pinpoint exactly what it is about it. I also have no idea where the QB should be releasing the ball or any of the throwing motion stuff. I tend to look at the bottom line things like accuracy, size, athleticism, arm strength. Those are not the only factors that make a QB, but those are the ones I tend to look at when making my evaluations. This is probably an oversight on my part. I feel like my evaluations are typically pretty good. I'm willing to say I bat somewhere around .750 when it comes to prospects, but QB's are always a nightmare for me. I feel very confident evaluating any other position, but I'm never fully confident in my QB evals.

[cortes02]

The only thing any of us can truly learn from past draft busts is that their are no guarantees when it comes to which prospects will be studs or not.

Peace!!! 

[ronjon1990]

Well, I learned to trust my gut when it comes to character off the field. I got panned over my prediction that Manziel would flop. So...

 

More importantly though, I've learned that in the age of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, not to get enamored with "pure athleticism" that some people gush over when talking QBs (see RG 3). Thus, I'm very very skeptical of Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold. "Tools" and "athleticism" are great, but if the QB nuances aren't there..... 

[vinceb]

Recently Carson Wentz an Goff didnt think they were that good. Trent Richardson comes to mind. Courtney Brown. Not many to be honest. I think most teams over think. Its not rocket science

[MWil23]

For me, it's Trent Richardson.

A guy who was never in elite shape that, looking back, had probably THE WORST vision I've ever seen for a RB. I'll be honest though, aside from terrible vision...I have no clue. It's just a weird situation and just goes to show that if he's not a sure thing, no one is. He had on field production at a top tier university with fantastic speed/strength testing for a 225 pound RB.

[jebrick]

I know I do not know crap compared to the NFL scouts/GMs.  I am quite accepting of draft and figure that the teams know way more than me.  I do have fun picking out talent.

My success have been:

Cordarrelle Patterson - #1  I hate WR in the 1st round. #2 Look at the Wonderlik score (if you can get it)  I think Patterson  had an 11.  #3 watch the reports of player interviews.  Patterson had a rep for not being smart.  WR is one position that you have got to have some smarts to learn route trees and make adjustments.

Amari Cooper - I picked Cooper to have be best early impact of all the WR in the draft due to his route running.  Most WR in college do not run good routes.  The offenses are set up so they do not have to be a route runner to get open.  The NFL is totally different.  Route running is a premium skill in the NFL

Big Ben and Russel Wilson - As have been stated in other posts.  I look for QBs  who make quick decisions and can throw into tight windows.

Johnny Manzel - also for reasons given in this thread.  Character means something.  It is the same reason I do not trust Mayfield ( that and his weaker arm and seemingly trouble to throw into tight windows).

Randy Gregory - See the part about character and intelligence.

My failures:

Hau'oli Kikaha - I really loved this guy because of his technique.  Injury history has won out so far.

Dontay Moch - Trusted the combine numbers too much

Eli Apple - Did not think he would be as good so soon.

 

 

[Teen Girl Squad]

The thing that I have learned from both success and failures is to very carefully compare the data/tape to the story/profile/first impressions you assign to a QB. People fall in love with narrative to much. For example, Treadwell was brought up and got drafted high because people compared him to Boldin, only his tape showed that he really wasn't that great and making contested catches/boxing out DBs. He was just tall and (for college) relatively fast enough to get targets. Blaine Gabbert was another good example. He was drafted high, in part, because he had solid mobility/could extend plays but the stats showed he was really bad on plays where he rolled/out/ran. The flip side are guys like JJ Watt and Donald, who were really good technicians in college, and thus had their athleticism/upside undervalued. The combine proved that they were very athletic but the still went a few picks lower than they should have. Chubb is a good candidate for this category if he tests well at the combine. Not perfect but a useful tool in making sure you are giving objective analysis on players where you can.

[LuckyNumber11]

What have I learned? That I have no idea what I'm talking about

[Iamcanadian]

I have been a draftnik for around 65 years and have learned a few tricks that scouts and GM's use when ranking a prospect.

1) One of the most important items used by pro scouts and GM's is knowing a long time college HC's tendencies on where he places his best athletes. It is not perfect, but it often explains why prospects drop seriously in a draft.

2) QB's who get drafted later than top 12 are very suspect and QB's drafted top 5 should never be judged by their rookie seasons.

3) For RB's, the ability to move laterally is crucial for success.

4) Beware lineman who play along side other stars, the stars always demand double teaming, making it far easier for his other linemates, to look better than they actually are.

5) Many, many flops occur to teams whose GM's are inferior judges of talent, it always surprises me when I see certain GM's produce flop after flop.

6) Even a Mayock have tendencies about the type of athlete they prefer at certain positions and cannot always be trusted when ranking those positions.

7) Tape alone can easily fool you about a prospects speed and strength, 9 times out of 10, he is playing against another player who has little pro potential and can seem to be a star re: his speed and  strength, when in fact, he is only speedier and stronger than a very slow and weak opponent. This makes All Star practices, Senior Bowl practices, The Combine and Pro Days extremely important when matching it up with what you have seen on tape. They are especially important when judging juniors and small college prospects. Juniors, because they are far from finished products and can improve by quite a bit if they attend pro camps after the season is over and small college players who are often awed when first matching up against bigger school prospects, but can come on strong after that initial awe wears off. They may have never played against another actual pro prospect, their whole college career and thus can really make an impression in All Star practices, the Senior Bowl practice, The Combine and Pro Days. Juniors and small college prospects can move way up or down as a result of the post season draft process, while seniors have been studied endlessly and are far more finished prospects.

8) we have almost zero access to a player's interview, physical health reports and character reports that pro scouts and GM's have, so I never am bothered much when a player I like flops over any of these issues, after all, we are not mind readers and can only go by what we see.

9) While every position requires a huge adjustment at the next level, WR, CB and LB are 3 of the hardest positions to rank. Neither position is even close to how they played in college and requires an extreme adjustment at the next level, so it is not surprising how many college stars at these positions, flop.

10) Since we rarely get to see a QB live, it is almost impossible to judge arm strength on tape alone, as TV slows everything down. You really need an ex pro scout on NFL.com, to tell you about a QB's arm strength. If a QB has elite arm strength, you can probably spot it, but if they only have a solid pro arm, it becomes a problem ascertaining it on tape alone.

[YogiBiz]

Trust your gut. If there is some nagging feeling you get by watching a player telling you fools gold or just something not sitting right to you about how he plays, move on. Stop trying to justify faults on terri-bad prospects (I sometimes have bad habit of doing this). 

[ronjon1990]

On 1/29/2018 at 9:53 AM, jebrick said:

Dontay Moch - Trusted the combine numbers too much

You and me both. I figured he would at worst be an elite special teamer and probably a close-to elite pass rusher with that speed. 

[BleedTheClock]

2 hours ago, YogiBiz said:

Trust your gut. If there is some nagging feeling you get by watching a player telling you fools gold or just something not sitting right to you about how he plays, move on. Stop trying to justify faults on terri-bad prospects (I sometimes have bad habit of doing this). 

I agree with this. Sometimes you just kind of know...it's hard to put into words what you don't like about them and then you end up saying something stupid and unwarranted as justification. For example, I don't like Tremaine Edmunds. When I watch him, he doesn't really do anything terrible. He's got size, speed, and pretty good production. But when I watch him, I'm left underwhelmed. I can't exactly describe WHY I don't like him, but he just rubs me the wrong way. I wish I was articulate enough or analytical enough to identify EXACTLY what it is that bothers me about him, but I can't point to exactly what it is.