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What have you learned from draft busts?


BleedTheClock

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20 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

The thing that I have learned from both success and failures is to very carefully compare the data/tape to the story/profile/first impressions you assign to a QB. People fall in love with narrative to much. For example, Treadwell was brought up and got drafted high because people compared him to Boldin, only his tape showed that he really wasn't that great and making contested catches/boxing out DBs. He was just tall and (for college) relatively fast enough to get targets. Blaine Gabbert was another good example. He was drafted high, in part, because he had solid mobility/could extend plays but the stats showed he was really bad on plays where he rolled/out/ran. The flip side are guys like JJ Watt and Donald, who were really good technicians in college, and thus had their athleticism/upside undervalued. The combine proved that they were very athletic but the still went a few picks lower than they should have. Chubb is a good candidate for this category if he tests well at the combine. Not perfect but a useful tool in making sure you are giving objective analysis on players where you can.

Huh? He was a beast at making contested catches. If anything, I was worried about his stiffness, route running, and the ability to beat guys over the top. Also despite having a great stiff arm, I questioned whether or not he could be an effective RAC guy because of his lack of speed/agility. But I never questioned his ability to catch the ball in traffic. Maybe I'm on an island, but he had some monster mitts and consistently got the 50/50 balls. He was excellent at getting inside position on slants/curls/comebacks.

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8 hours ago, Jlash said:

I learned from guys like Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Keith McGill that not every 6'3 corner is going to be the next Richard Sherman. 

Man Jean-Baptiste had me good. I was shocked he was drafted as late as he was. Turns out he should have been undrafted.

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To never go all in with college stats. Thanks you hunk of a man Brady Quinn. Thanks again for making my life easier when looking at qbs. Thanks for my discovering to not listen to the media and use my eyes to see what I’m actually seeing. 

Thanks again you hunk of a man...thanks again. 

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Aaron Curry. I thought he was the next hall of fame 4-3 OLB and can't miss. Easiest stud as a prospect I had seen. Oops. I read an interview where he said he lost motivation after signing the contract because his motivation had always been to help his mom. The thing that I had always discounted, and today still probably underrate, is how important a pure love of the game is. Players make too much money for that alone to be enough of a motivator for the most part. With that said he also didn't have a great football IQ. Bit on play action basically everytime. I didn't notice that in college probably because offenses are more simplistic. Once there was more thinking to be done he lost it.

Also wiffed on Mo Claiborne thought that he was a far superior CB to Patrick Peterson (missed a bit on him to as I thought he'd only be an average corner but great returner). Never watched him enough to know exactly what didn't translate though. Only that it clearly didn't.

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Definitely missed on Morris Claiborne as well. Liked him ALOT, Jake Locker too. Didnt think Anthony Barr would amount to anything 

Right about Manziel but so were most people, Ryan Kerrigan was someone i thought should have gone higher and wanted when we took Gabbert...another bust i was right about

 

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8 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Definitely missed on Morris Claiborne as well. Liked him ALOT, Jake Locker too. Didnt think Anthony Barr would amount to anything 

Right about Manziel but so were most people, Ryan Kerrigan was someone i thought should have gone higher and wanted when we took Gabbert...another bust i was right about

I was really high on Claiborne too. I thought he might've salvaged his career his last year in Dallas but I guess he regressed while on the Jets. I was also a big fan of Fuller who had his first good season this year. I think both are similar in that they had great movement skills and were similarly sized. I don't really know why Claiborne didn't hit. I guess what they (he and Fuller) had in common is they lacked elite speed, but so many great corners did as well. Both seem to struggle at catch point in the league, but Claiborne had great ball skills at LSU (former receiver if I remember correctly).

Also -- just an aside -- but can we have a thread like this without posters also mentioning their hits?

 

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1 minute ago, Rich7sena said:

I was really high on Claiborne too. I thought he might've salvaged his career his last year in Dallas but I guess he regressed while on the Jets. I was also a big fan of Fuller who had his first good season this year. I think both are similar in that they had great movement skills and were similarly sized. I don't really know why Claiborne didn't hit. I guess what they (he and Fuller) had in common is they lacked elite speed, but so many great corners did as well. Both seem to struggle at catch point in the league, but Claiborne had great ball skills at LSU (former receiver if I remember correctly).

Also -- just an aside -- but can we have a thread like this without posters also mentioning their hits?

 

Probably not. I’m honestly surprised this thread hasnt turned to “100% when i was right” moments

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11 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

, Jake Locker too. Didnt think Anthony Barr would amount to anything 

Ditto on these two. I bet my friend $100 that Locker would be a pro bowl QB within his first 3 years in the league. Whoops.

Anthony Barr was slept on hard by me. It's the same feeling I get from Tremaine Edmunds now actually...maybe I should like Edmunds more than I do, because I see a lot of similarities between the two...although Barr didn't play 4-3 LB at UCLA oddly enough (IIRC).

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Ditto on these two. I bet my friend $100 that Locker would be a pro bowl QB within his first 3 years in the league. Whoops.

Anthony Barr was slept on hard by me. It's the same feeling I get from Tremaine Edmunds now actually...maybe I should like Edmunds more than I do, because I see a lot of similarities between the two...although Barr didn't play 4-3 LB at UCLA oddly enough (IIRC).

Playing LBer in the NFL is so different from playing LB in college, that it is quite easy to get a flop at that position and nobody should beat themselves up over being wrong about one. However, basing your dislike on a feeling is hardly reliable!

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On ‎1‎/‎16‎/‎2018 at 1:07 PM, ronjon1990 said:

Well, I learned to trust my gut when it comes to character off the field. I got panned over my prediction that Manziel would flop. So...

 

More importantly though, I've learned that in the age of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, not to get enamored with "pure athleticism" that some people gush over when talking QBs (see RG 3). Thus, I'm very very skeptical of Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold. "Tools" and "athleticism" are great, but if the QB nuances aren't there..... 

This along with a brain and/or desire. Both are preferred. The Patriots only want smart players. That's why they win consistently. Frank Gore has a learning disability but you can never question his passion for the game and his dedication. You want guys working all year long. That's why Wentz is already really good. You don't want guys that are in it for the money. My favorite example of that was when Robert Meachem, when asked why he was coming out early for the NFL, stated, 'I'm cashing in'. That second I knew he was going to flop.

Brady is a great example of a guy with limited athletic ability but dedication 365 days a year to be great. He treats it like a job.

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I remember being so strongly against Kevin White when there was the Cooper/White discussion. Feels unfair to claim victory for White due to his injuries, but he hasn't shown much on the field when he's been out there. I think too many times people become enamored with the highlights instead of watching them play in and play out. Highlight videos made Bruce Campbell look like the best OL prospect of all time. It's also why I never bought Johnny Manziel... like at all. I think Manziel was the most obvious bust of all time. He made a living in college making plays that you can't get away with in the NFL. People tried comparing him to Wilson, but I never saw it. Wilson is such a better pocket passer and generally plays more composed. I never thought they were close.

Guys I've been dead wrong on? I didn't like Garappolo coming out. I thought we were looking at another Blaine Gabbert. 

I totally whiffed on Newton. I didn't think he was accurate enough to make it. His accuracy is still a flaw, but he's been able to overcome that in spades. I doubted him up until his MVP season.

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I really liked Laquon Treadwell two years ago. Turns out he's not doing so great. Now I look mostly for a guy's ability to separate at the WR position - all the elite guys have it. These were Treadwell's weaknesses, per NFL.com: "Doesn't have the cushion-­eating, vertical speed to scare cornerbacks. Cornerbacks will crowd his underneath routes from off­-man coverage.  Struggled to free himself from press coverage against LSU's Tre'Davious White and may have separation issues in pros against quick cornerbacks. Takes time to gear down into breaks once he gets speed up." Basically, it's all about how he couldn't separate. I looked back at some scouting reports of a lot of guys (Jones, Green, Brown, Beckham, etc.) and most of them had great separation abilities, so that's what I'm trying to look for in wideouts this year.

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To never trust height/weight/speed, high ceiling guys who haven't produced. Especially at WR. Give me a more pedestrian player who actually knows how to play football.

I've been hit-and-miss with WRs in general, though Loved Beckham Jr, loved DeAndre Hopkins, but also thought Kevin White and LaQuan Treadwell would be great. Jury is still out on Corey Davis, but there are promising signs. I never liked Breshad Perriman, and sadly I turned out to be right there.

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