NFL's All-Disruptive Team (1st and 2nd)

[BobbyBelt]

Hello everyone. Wanted to share some research I've been working on this season.

I've been tracking a new statistic this season that I call "Disruptions." I've been tracking it across the NFL. The definition is below:

I use NFL GSIS for these statistics (the official stats provider for the NFL). That's how I calculate the QB Hit portion. I recognize that this isn't any sort of a perfect stat, and it doesn't take in a number of factors to overall play, but it is a good barometer for the players who make the most individual splash plays at each position.

Here is the NFL's All-Disruptive 2nd Team for 2017...

EDGE3 - Jadeveon Clowney (39.75)

EDGE4 - Calais Campbell (38.25)

DT3 - Jurrell Casey (28.00)

DT4 - DeForest Buckner (27.00)

t-LB4 - Telvin Smith (27.75)

t-LB4 - Deion Jones (27.75)

LB6 - Eric Kendricks (24.5)

CB3 - Tre'Davious White (30.50)

CB4 - Marshon Lattimore (30.00)

S3 - Jordan Poyer (28.50)

S4 - Micah Hyde (25.50)

 

And the NFL All-Disruptive 1st Team for 2017...

EDGE1 - Chandler Jones (55.75)

EDGE2 - Cam Jordan (50.25)

DT1 - Aaron Donald (38.25)

DT2 - Gerald McCoy (32.25)

LB1 - Bobby Wagner (34.25)

LB2 - CJ Mosley (30.25)

LB3 - Demario Davis (28.00)

CB1 - Darius Slay (43.25)

CB2 - Casey Hayward (33.25)

S1 - Kevin Byard (38.00)

S2 - Harrison Smith (31.25)

 

 

[Hunter2_1]

JJ Watt would own this if fit.

[BobbyBelt]

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

JJ Watt would own this if fit.

Indeed. Chandler Jones led the NFL with 55.75 score, but Watt's 2012 score was 88.75, and his 2014 score was 79.25.

[ET80]

This is pretty neat. Would love to see an offensive equivalent.

[wackywabbit]

Original research? I like it. 

Some Ravens fans were saying CJ Mosley wasn't making as many impact plays this year, but I didn't see the decline in the stats or what I saw live.

[DontTazeMeBro]

I like it. I think forced fumbles should be worth more. Definitely more than a PBU

[Nick]

Really cool stuff. Would be interesting to see past years teams. 

Bills secondary had quite a year. They lost Gilmore, Darby and both safeties, but played much better with Poyer, Hyde, White and EJ Gaines (when healthy). Many of us Buffalo fans weren't expecting such a quality year out of that young crew year 1.

Now if only we had a better pass rush... 

 

[BobbyBelt]

14 minutes ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I like it. I think forced fumbles should be worth more. Definitely more than a PBU

Let me explain my thinking on that, as I get that sort of reaction a lot.

As a defender, your job is to make sure you're doing your part to stop the opponent from advancing within the context of the unit. That means disrupting the plans of the offense as much as you can within your job.

A forced fumble and a QB hit are definitely disruptive to a team's rhythm, but they don't ensure a positive result for the defense. A QB Hit disrupts the opposing team as they try and get the ball downfield, but it may not affect the trajectory enough to cause the pass to be incomplete. A forced fumble isn't guaranteed to be recovered by the defense, and in some instance, offenses actually gain yards when they recover a forced fumble.

A pass defended doesn't result in negative yards, but it also prevents positive yardage and eliminates a four down opportunity to advance the ball.

A tackle for loss and a sack are both plays that eliminate a down and move the opposition further from their target. A sack is usually a bigger chunk of yards lost than a TFL, but not always. Because there isn't any compilation of yards lost on each sack and tackle for loss, I scaled TFL slightly behind a sack since the mean average always ends up with sack yards being more.

Finally, an interception completely wipes out a team's drive, so that is the most valuable form of disruption for a defensive player.

[pwny]

1 minute ago, BobbyBelt said:

A forced fumble and a QB hit are definitely disruptive to a team's rhythm, but they don't ensure a positive result for the defense.

So what about someone like Yannick Ngakoue who had 4 of his forced fumbles returned for TDs, and also returned one on his own? He’s been directly involved in 5 defensive TDs this season. Shouldn’t that count as some sort of higher level disruption? A forced fumble isn’t always recovered by the defense, but it shouldn’t be valued at 1/4 an interception. What’s the rate at which a forced fumble is recovered by the defense?

 

Also - why is a sack worth more than a negative run? If anything, they should be the same *or* weighed according to the yards lost.

[BobbyBelt]

2 minutes ago, iPwn said:

So what about someone like Yannick Ngakoue who had 4 of his forced fumbles returned for TDs, and also returned one on his own? He’s been directly involved in 5 defensive TDs this season. Shouldn’t that count as some sort of higher level disruption? A forced fumble isn’t always recovered by the defense, but it shouldn’t be valued at 1/4 an interception. What’s the rate at which a forced fumble is recovered by the defense?

 

Also - why is a sack worth more than a negative run? If anything, they should be the same *or* weighed according to the yards lost.

No, because it's completely left up to chance. The ball bounces certain ways, but all that was in Ngakoue's control was punching it loose. Why should he get extra credit for someone else recovering and returning, or lose credit for someone failing to recover and having the opposing team pick up a first down? This is scored based on what an individual can do to disrupt the game on his own. Punching the ball out and leading to a random dogpile isn't near the individual value of ending another team's possession on your own.

Regarding TFL vs. sacks, the yardage lost on sacks is more than tackles for loss on roughly a 90% basis (something I actually looked into). TFL's are typically 1-2 yards, whereas sacks are 4-7. SOME tackles for loss will result in more yardage than SOME sacks, but the vast majority do not. It's only fair to score it on face value, which is valuing the sack as SLIGHTLY more, since it also physically wears down the most important player on the opposing side of the ball.

[BLick12]

Interesting stat.  Nothing for hurries? I would think there is value in that as well.

I too think a forced fumble should be weighted more.

[Jetzger]

Unless someone wants to pull a football outsiders and research fumble recovery rates for different situations/play types, is it fair to assume that fumbles are basically 50/50?  In which case a forced fumble should be half the value of an INT.  For D-linemen, who are causing the majority of their FF on QBs, its probably worth more than that since recovering the fumble is resulting in better field position than the average INT.  And IIRC, fumbles down the field are more likely to be recovered by the defense (usually more defenders in the area), then that raises the value of FF for secondary players. 

[BobbyBelt]

2 minutes ago, BLick12 said:

Interesting stat.  Nothing for hurries? I would think there is value in that as well.

The NFL's stats provider doesn't track hurries. Often times teams will use the quarterback hits numbers provided to determine their in-house hurries statistics.

[KingOfNewYork]

Low-key never understood the difference between a sack or a TFL. Both kind of accomplish the same thing.

[pwny]

54 minutes ago, BobbyBelt said:

No, because it's completely left up to chance. The ball bounces certain ways, but all that was in Ngakoue's control was punching it loose. Why should he get extra credit for someone else recovering and returning, or lose credit for someone failing to recover and having the opposing team pick up a first down? This is scored based on what an individual can do to disrupt the game on his own. Punching the ball out and leading to a random dogpile isn't near the individual value of ending another team's possession on your own.

Okay. So ~50.1% of fumbles are recovered by the defense. And if you remove fumbles snaps (in which no defender caused the fumble), the percentage is 55.8% [source]. So why is a forced fumble worth a quarter of an interception, when the turnover rate is over double that?

And if we want to take the “sometimes an offense recovers and gains yards” look at it, we can see that only 47.8% of all fumbles are on positive yard plays, and of those, only 40.0% are recovered by the offense. This would mean that only 23.4% of all forced fumbles are recovered by the offense for a positive gain.

I also don’t see why - if positive yards are a worry - why we wouldn’t count fumbles forced in positive yard situations differently than in negative yard situations. A strip sack is never a positive play for the offense, so it shouldn’t have any negative value associated with it.