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GWT: Week 20 Jaguars @ Patriots


gopherwrestler

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots  

139 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Jacksonville Jaguars
    • New England Patriots


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16 minutes ago, EliteTexan80 said:

AJ Bouye started to earn his reputation in Houston for being the guy covering TEs. Covered Gronk in last years' Texans/Pats matchup and picked Brady off twice.

He's got demonstrated success against TEs (covered Kelce when KC/Hou played, was on Delanie Walker when Hou played Tenn).

I guess I couldn't have said covered. Ramsey or Bouye could probably cover him just fine. It's stopping him from catching the ball, or at least make his catches contested. Basically just stopping him. Kevin Byard stuck with him, but couldn't stop him at all from making catches. Just wasn't as big as Gronk. No one is. Ramsey is a little taller than Bouye, maybe that helps. Also getting Church in the mix. 

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3 hours ago, Asciimo said:

I’d like to see this stat continued past 4 sacks. Is there a point when his win % dips below 50?

Brady is 6-0 in games where he was sacked 5 times

2-0 in games where he was sacked 6 times

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17 minutes ago, jofos said:

Brady is 6-0 in games where he was sacked 5 times

2-0 in games where he was sacked 6 times

I told this to a friend of mine but I noticed that over that past few years Brady is more mentally tough. Before he used to get really rattled, like the 2007 super bowl where he is as completely off of it, but now he just gets up and goes for another play even if gets decked again. That game vs the Broncos where he got hit 20 times and still tried to make the game winning drive really impressed me, even in a losing effort.

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37 minutes ago, EliteTexan80 said:

AJ Bouye started to earn his reputation in Houston for being the guy covering TEs. Covered Gronk in last years' Texans/Pats matchup and picked Brady off twice.

He's got demonstrated success against TEs (covered Kelce when KC/Hou played, was on Delanie Walker when Hou played Tenn).

When was this? Gronk didn't play in the playoffs and Brady nor Gronk  played week three.

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1 hour ago, mcmurtry86 said:

You keep referencing the 2012 Ravens, ignoring that the Pats weapons this year are significantly better than that year.

 

Hernandez/Ridley/Woodhead/Fells/Lloyd/Welker/Branch

 

Gronkowski/Lewis/White/Cooks/Hogan/Amendola

 

The Pats had no deep threat in 2012 and only Welker/Hernandez over the middle. The Ravens didn't need to respect the outside or deep zones. Ridley/Woodhead were significantly worse receivers (especially route running) than Lewis/White

You say the Jags are better at every level but so are the Pats. A healthy Gronk and two quality perimeter receivers makes a huge difference.

The Jags could shut the Pats down, they have the pieces to do it. But comparing the 2017 Pats offense to many previous years doesn't work. If (big if) the offense is healthy and in sync, the Pats have their best/deepest group of offensive talent in a long time. It's very difficult to execute a Ravens or Giants game plan when Gronk, Cooks, Hogan and Amendola are all healthy

This will come down to turnovers and whether or not the Pats can run the ball. Brady should be able to move the ball enough to score a few TD unless the OL melts down. If they are their usual shaky big passable selves, I expect the Pats to get plenty of yards.

If New England plays a clean game - no stupid penalties, 1 or 0 turnovers, I think they win

26-17 Pats

I don't have much faith in Cooks at the moment, given that he's basically playing out of position and seems to be out of sync with Brady the last few games. A healthy Gronk is certainly better than Hernandez, but I also think the Jags have the personnel to take him out of the game, much the same way the Dolphins did a few weeks ago. They also have much better speed at the LB position and could keep the Pats' RB receiving threats in check. Hogan had just 1 catch on 4 targets against Tennessee so I'm not expecting him to be much of a factor - especially given that he'll probably draw one of the two top corners in coverage when he's out there. Amendola is the one guy I expect to have a big game this weekend but it's tough for this team to win when only one receiver is producing. 

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5 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Patriots has a terrible 4 game start to begin the season. Since week 5 on they’ve averaged 14ppg easily the best in the NFL since. In the last 5 weeks the Jags gave up 40 points twice 

That should come with considerable caveats. The teams they held under 20 points since week 5 were:

Buffalo (22nd in ppg)

Oakland (23rd)

Miami (28th)

NYJ (24th)

Atlanta (15th)

Denver (27th)

Tampa (18th)

Chargers (13th)

Tennessee (19th)

 

They gave up 24 to Pittsburgh (which would've been at least 27 had the Steelers not crapped the bed at the end).

The Jaguars were 5th in points scored. A lot of that was off turnovers, but they had the 16th ranked offense by DVOA and 6th by yardage, so however you slice it they'll be one of the better offenses the Pats will have faced this year.

 

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