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Yeah, the way you win the Superbowl is "You get into the playoffs then you win three or four straight games."  There's not really any other way about it, and a lot of these games come down to dumb random things.  Like if the Bills squib kicked it in the playoffs against the Chiefs, they probably win the Owl.  If Dak had handed the ball to the official instead of trying to spot it himself the Packers might have won the Owl.  A lot of things come down to matchups and "you get the teams you match up well with, not the teams you match up poorly with" is almost entirely out of your control.  Like last year's Packers squad matched up well with the Cowboys and the Rams, and poorly with the Bucs and the 49ers.

I will note that the only times teams have won with "poor QB play" was when they put together a historically good defense.  Several teams have hoisted the trophy by virtue of "getting hot at the right time" (every Eli championship, Nick Foles' championship with the Eagles, etc.)

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1 hour ago, Green19 said:

But this doesn’t factor in what the player wants and how they want the contract structure. What’s great for the team, often is terrible for the individual player.

Wasnt this the big issue for Davante? He wanted guarantees past year 1. For any player they want these contracts to be structured a certain way to lock teams into them. So there can’t be any funny business.

So this makes sense in theory… until you add a human’s wants, desires, ego, insecurities, etc into.

Make the rest of them fully guaranteed. You’d be able to survive that as a team. QB starts sucking and you’re paying your backup 7% and a rookie 3%. You’re still below that magic 12.2% that nobody, not even Brady, has broken.

It’s the same amount of money. If they won’t take it, trade them.

 

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55 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Yeah, the way you win the Superbowl is "You get into the playoffs then you win three or four straight games."  There's not really any other way about it, and a lot of these games come down to dumb random things.  Like if the Bills squib kicked it in the playoffs against the Chiefs, they probably win the Owl.  If Dak had handed the ball to the official instead of trying to spot it himself the Packers might have won the Owl.  A lot of things come down to matchups and "you get the teams you match up well with, not the teams you match up poorly with" is almost entirely out of your control.  Like last year's Packers squad matched up well with the Cowboys and the Rams, and poorly with the Bucs and the 49ers.

I will note that the only times teams have won with "poor QB play" was when they put together a historically good defense.  Several teams have hoisted the trophy by virtue of "getting hot at the right time" (every Eli championship, Nick Foles' championship with the Eagles, etc.)

This is the one that I won’t budge on.

Defense.

I went through and I added up every team’s postseason points allowed throughout the history of the league and… I don’t care if you have Brady or Brady Rodgers Peyton Brees 2077 clone QB, if you don’t have a defense you’re not winning.

The QB one is a football theory. One I think is solid, but it can be scrutinized.

The defense one is NFL fact.

This is also why I have a hard time accepting when our defense gives up more than 23 points.

Ideally it’s keeping them under 20 points, but in the regular season, it’s fine. Postseason it’s not.

Rodgers would be undefeated up until last year if our defense held teams under 20 points.

 

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3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

This is the one that I won’t budge on.

Defense.

I went through and I added up every team’s postseason points allowed throughout the history of the league and… I don’t care if you have Brady or Brady Rodgers Peyton Brees 2077 clone QB, if you don’t have a defense you’re not winning.

The QB one is a football theory. One I think is solid, but it can be scrutinized.

The defense one is NFL fact.

 

I definitely agree on defense. This one is just scratching the surface. They held San Fran to three points last January and the arrow points up. It's still very early. It would be nice to get another edge at least for the final stretch. 

Keep in mind that the cupboards were empty in 2018. Gute's done a good job restocking this team, but that wasn't completed until this year. The Adams trade is part of this. If we need more help receiving, that can be done still. But the defense, fixing special teams, improving  and getting the Oline healthy was more important.

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With the exception of the New York Giants in 2011, every Super Bowl champion in the last decade had a Top 10 scoring defense. Since 2013, every team, aside from Kansas City, ranked in the top seven.

I posted last year that 87% of Super Bowl participants, not just winners, had a Top 10 scoring defense. (I couldn't find that link this time around)

Fans hate it because it's easier to just say it's Rodgers fault, but the numbers don't lie.

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14 minutes ago, cannondale said:

With the exception of the New York Giants in 2011, every Super Bowl champion in the last decade had a Top 10 scoring defense. Since 2013, every team, aside from Kansas City, ranked in the top seven.

I posted last year that 87% of Super Bowl participants, not just winners, had a Top 10 scoring defense. (I couldn't find that link this time around)

Fans hate it because it's easier to just say it's Rodgers fault, but the numbers don't lie.

I did the research a few years ago and I'm pretty sure the Ravens with Flacco and the Saints Superbowls are the only 2 where the champions defenses weren't top 10 scoring defenses in the regular season or the equivalent during the playoffs. 

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52 minutes ago, cannondale said:

With the exception of the New York Giants in 2011, every Super Bowl champion in the last decade had a Top 10 scoring defense. Since 2013, every team, aside from Kansas City, ranked in the top seven.

I posted last year that 87% of Super Bowl participants, not just winners, had a Top 10 scoring defense. (I couldn't find that link this time around)

Fans hate it because it's easier to just say it's Rodgers fault, but the numbers don't lie.

I wanna argue so bad how this can be a reflection of Rodgers and could be his fault

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

With the exception of the New York Giants in 2011, every Super Bowl champion in the last decade had a Top 10 scoring defense. Since 2013, every team, aside from Kansas City, ranked in the top seven.

I posted last year that 87% of Super Bowl participants, not just winners, had a Top 10 scoring defense. (I couldn't find that link this time around)

Fans hate it because it's easier to just say it's Rodgers fault, but the numbers don't lie.

 

1 hour ago, wgbeethree said:

I did the research a few years ago and I'm pretty sure the Ravens with Flacco and the Saints Superbowls are the only 2 where the champions defenses weren't top 10 scoring defenses in the regular season or the equivalent during the playoffs. 

The 2011 Giants always had the talent though. Literally always had it, and they turned it on in those playoffs. Same with the Ravens.

The 2011 Giants allowed 0 points against the Falcons, 20 points to 2011 Rodgers (who had Cobb, Nelson, Driver, Jennings, Finley…), and 17 points to the Patriots when I believe they still had Moss, Welker, etc.

JPP was an all-pro that year, and they also had Prince Amukamara, Antrell Rolle, Kenny Phillips when everyone thought he was THE next safety, Deon Grant, Linvsl Joseph, Osi Us…, Justin Tuck…

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13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

 

The 2011 Giants always had the talent though. Literally always had it, and they turned it on in those playoffs. Same with the Ravens.

The 2011 Giants allowed 0 points against the Falcons, 20 points to 2011 Rodgers (who had Cobb, Nelson, Driver, Jennings, Finley…), and 17 points to the Patriots when I believe they still had Moss, Welker, etc.

JPP was an all-pro that year, and they also had Prince Amukamara, Antrell Rolle, Kenny Phillips when everyone thought he was THE next safety, Deon Grant, Linvsl Joseph, Osi Us…, Justin Tuck…

Yep, that 2011 NYG front got healthy and caught fire at the right time. They saw how KC laid the blue print for getting pressure with the front four and send everyone else out into coverage, the run game under MM was an afterthought. Few teams had the personnel to do it but the G men did that year. 

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Even for the Bears, the ineptitude they've shown passing the ball is kind of shocking. 23-45 for 235 yards (the next worst is 484) with 2 TD's and 4 INT's. Darnell Mooney, who had 1055 receiving yards last year, has 4 catches for 27 yards. 

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14 hours ago, Brat&Beer said:

Even for the Bears, the ineptitude they've shown passing the ball is kind of shocking. 23-45 for 235 yards (the next worst is 484) with 2 TD's and 4 INT's. Darnell Mooney, who had 1055 receiving yards last year, has 4 catches for 27 yards. 

Bobby Douglass 2.0. 

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1 hour ago, Brat&Beer said:

Chargers Joey Bosa undergoing surgery for groin injury. Expected to return later this year. 

That is a horrible week for the Chargers. They lose their 2nd and 3rd best player in the same week. If Bosa comes back later in the year, he won't be nearly as explosive. 

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