Isherwood Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Leader said: Peter Bukowski - This is why people who would rather be the Bucs and be crappy for long periods of time between Super Bowls are just wrong. The Packers have been the most consistent franchise East of Foxborough for the last two decades but let’s talk about wasting primes and not wanting to be great. It’s really hard to be really good for a really long time. The people who saying things like “I’d trade 10 years of good seasons for a Super Bowl” are all under 30. And that’s fine. That’s their experience. But like no Brewers fan is saying that same thing because they haven’t been consistently good for the last 20+ years. We can easily settle this too. Over the last 10 years, which franchise has been more successful: One is 60-100 with 1 playoff trip and 8 losing seasons but has a Super Bowl The other is 105-53-2 with 8 playoff trips, 2 losing seasons and no Super Bowl. Put another way: The Packers "only" have 2 Super Bowl wins in the Favre/Rodgers era. 25 years, 2 wins. That's more than 18 other teams have in their entire existence. More than half the league. Vikings and Bears fans would kill to have such failures. The biggest folly in this classic debate of “consistency” vs “all-in” is that people on the all-in side debate from the position that going all-in ensures a Super Bowl. It doesn’t. There’s no magic button here. But simply because Tampa Bay won one, everyone arguing for this applies this sort of logic. If you asked me if I would trade 5-10 years of irrelevancy for 1 SB next year, I would say yes, of course. But you would have to guarantee me that in advance. Simply going all-in doesn’t guarantee that. Tampa Bay was either one less Aaron Jones fumble, or one more Kevin King pass deflection away from not winning that game. It is absurd to think that they did anything that guaranteed anything. There simply isn’t a template for winning super bowls. Edited May 17, 2021 by Isherwood 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 5 hours ago, Isherwood said: If you asked me if I would trade 5-10 years of irrelevancy for 1 SB next year, I would say yes, of course. But you would have to guarantee me that in advance. Simply going all-in doesn’t guarantee that. How about if the same deal was offered, but you were then fast forwarded to the year after you won the SB, so all you had to look forward to was the looooong period of 5-10 years of being rubbish. It's all about where you are along that timeline. At the start, it looks good, from then on, awful...........and maybe you didn't even have the SB as a warm memory of that first year, because all-in guaranteed nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 The last two seasons have been awesome. I hope we keep winning. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 10 hours ago, Isherwood said: There simply isn’t a template for winning super bowls. Sure there is - make personnel moves that mostly work out, stay healthy, and get hot in the playoffs. Problem is all 3 of those things are wildly uncontrollable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 (edited) Interesting read on value drafting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-value-do-teams-lose-when-they-dont-draft-a-quarterback-in-the-first-round/ @Outpost31 Edited May 18, 2021 by incognito_man 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R T Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 7 hours ago, incognito_man said: Interesting read on value drafting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-value-do-teams-lose-when-they-dont-draft-a-quarterback-in-the-first-round/ @Outpost31 Very good stuff. But listing Gary as a LB is an error, if he is listed as an Edge he would not be on the negative chart at all. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 I wonder how disappointed the Bucs are right now with the -184 value they got for drafting Devin White... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, packfanfb said: I wonder how disappointed the Bucs are right now with the -184 value they got for drafting Devin White... Good point .. that guy is so clearly a stud and game changer out there on the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said: Good point .. that guy is so clearly a stud and game changer out there on the field. I love how PFF try to discount him as a player because he has such a low score like 40 or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said: Good point .. that guy is so clearly a stud and game changer out there on the field. That's the whole point. I'm not trying to be snarky, but you can't simply go by a set of numbers on a chart in every situation when you're drafting talent. Players matter. White is a difference maker who transcends the typical trends against drafting a 1st round ILB, especially in the top 10. The Bucs don't win the SB last year without him. He was the MVP of the Super Bowl (even though they gave it to Brady for basically doing nothing). White was a home run pick for Tampa. I think overall, the article points out some interesting concepts and general guidelines to live by, but there are obvious exceptions to be made. I also like how the article basically says that WR is the most valuable position in the draft after QB/LT/EDGE. I doubt that view is shared by many on this forum given past sentiment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, packfanfb said: That's the whole point. I'm not trying to be snarky, but you can't simply go by a set of numbers on a chart in every situation when you're drafting talent. Players matter. White is a difference maker who transcends the typical trends against drafting a 1st round ILB, especially in the top 10. The Bucs don't win the SB last year without him. He was the MVP of the Super Bowl (even though they gave it to Brady for basically doing nothing). White was a home run pick for Tampa. I think overall, the article points out some interesting concepts and general guidelines to live by, but there are obvious exceptions to be made. I also like how the article basically says that WR is the most valuable position in the draft after QB/LT/EDGE. I doubt that view is shared by many on this forum given past sentiment... You're literally ignoring an enormous caveat they explicitly pointed out. These are not stupid people that wrote the article. They literally said it doesn't matter if the player is "good" or not when examining this dataset. The obvious counter is that a couple good seasons from an ILB doesn't outweigh the potential 2 decades of QB play that potentially COULD have been available. Obviously they don't factor in who was available at each pick, either, but the critiques you bring up were already addressed within the article and explained away. *Edit - To your point though. I agree TB is likely very happy with their pick. I think a more robust article would somehow "normalize" the lost value score by looking at which positions were subsequently picked. i.e. mathematically account for who was available by looking at the next 5-10 picks or so. In White's case, a QB was the very next pick, so the GMs "lost value" potential is likely maximized, however. Edited May 18, 2021 by incognito_man 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Think Tampa would be as happy with White if they had Jameis starting last season? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReadyToThump Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 9:18 AM, packfanfb said: That's the whole point. I'm not trying to be snarky, but you can't simply go by a set of numbers on a chart in every situation when you're drafting talent. Players matter. White is a difference maker who transcends the typical trends against drafting a 1st round ILB, especially in the top 10. The Bucs don't win the SB last year without him. He was the MVP of the Super Bowl (even though they gave it to Brady for basically doing nothing). White was a home run pick for Tampa. I think overall, the article points out some interesting concepts and general guidelines to live by, but there are obvious exceptions to be made. I also like how the article basically says that WR is the most valuable position in the draft after QB/LT/EDGE. I doubt that view is shared by many on this forum given past sentiment... You watched the super bowl? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, ReadyToThump said: You watched the super bowl? Surprisingly yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 (edited) Warren Sharp - # of first half drives ending with TDs 39 GB 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 NO 31 BUF, TB, IND, TEN 29 28 BAL, KC 27 26 CLE 25 LAC 24 SEA, DET 23 LV, ARI 22 PIT, MIN 21 ATL, CAR, SF 20 PHI 19 DAL, MIA, CHI, HOU 18 LAR, CIN 17 16 15 14 NYG, JAX 13 WAS 12 NYJ, NE 11 DEN Andrew Brandt - But the Packers didn’t draft a receiver... Edited May 20, 2021 by Leader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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