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The Patriot Way - Draft Analysis and Impact on the Lions


Karnage84

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7 hours ago, honolulu2786 said:

One of the better posts I've seen in a long time. Very interesting stuff. Good work man.

Thank you sir. It's not an exact science but it does help to give some insight into what Bob Quinn has learned over the years. We might not love what the Patriots do in the draft but they're going for their 8th SuperBowl in Brady's 16 years. You have to be doing something right for that kind of success.

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17 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

They seem to draft to fit what they want not best player available 

Not a fan at all if that's the case..

If things don't turn out and mp is fire and we change things and players now don't fit..

Well you're banking on things not working out 3-4 years down the road. IDOG has showed that the transition to include more 3-4 shouldn't be too difficult. We'll likely run a hybrid D anyway. We also have nearly $50M in cap space, so we can add a few other guys to round things out.

The Patriots have had more success this year than the Lions have had in 50. Patricia has been Bellichick's understudy. He's likely the one to have the best chance of success coming out of there. If it doesn't work and we're back at square one in 4 years, it's not going to matter that we drafted a guy this year that doesn't fit the scheme in 2022.

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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Well you're banking on things not working out 3-4 years down the road. IDOG has showed that the transition to include more 3-4 shouldn't be too difficult. We'll likely run a hybrid D anyway. We also have nearly $50M in cap space, so we can add a few other guys to round things out.

The Patriots have had more success this year than the Lions have had in 50. Patricia has been Bellichick's understudy. He's likely the one to have the best chance of success coming out of there. If it doesn't work and we're back at square one in 4 years, it's not going to matter that we drafted a guy this year that doesn't fit the scheme in 2022.

I think your making pretty lite of it..

We could lose say four drafts over this philosophy 

Imo the patroits drafts hold back there team..

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I think one point not being looked at is, developing the talent we already have. I believe that Caldwell & his coaching staff did a poor job of developing young talent and not putting players in the right situations. When was the last time the Lions came out after halftime & made adjustments??? Matt Patricia has shown that he has developed players that he has gotten from teams who gave up on said player. Example.... Van Noy! Struggled here, never developed. He goes to the Pats & Patricia not only made him better, but made him a starter on a Super Bowl team. I believe we have players, if developed right can be very good. There may even be practice squad guys that Caldwell let fall through the cracks, that haven’t been coached up right that could produce. With Free Agency & a nice Cap amount, which I believe is higher than 50 million, due to a scale hike this year, is a nice start. Quinn will find talent in the draft, no matter the round. Then you hand this talent over to Patricia & his staff, who I truly believe can & will develop them into a solid team. 

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1 hour ago, Rockcity2 said:

I think your making pretty lite of it..

We could lose say four drafts over this philosophy 

Imo the patroits drafts hold back there team..

And win back to back Super Bowls? Brady and Bellichick aren't doing this all on their own. Guys have to block, run, catch, tackle in order to make things work.

I hate the Patriots because they're really boring. They're always winning and tend to reload as opposed to rebuild. Having the GOAT at the most important position in all of sports does help. However, if we can bring to that to the Lions, I'd be glad to have a decade where people are annoyed at us for constantly winning.

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1 hour ago, GetDownandDirty said:

I think one point not being looked at is, developing the talent we already have. I believe that Caldwell & his coaching staff did a poor job of developing young talent and not putting players in the right situations. When was the last time the Lions came out after halftime & made adjustments??? Matt Patricia has shown that he has developed players that he has gotten from teams who gave up on said player. Example.... Van Noy! Struggled here, never developed. He goes to the Pats & Patricia not only made him better, but made him a starter on a Super Bowl team. I believe we have players, if developed right can be very good. There may even be practice squad guys that Caldwell let fall through the cracks, that haven’t been coached up right that could produce. With Free Agency & a nice Cap amount, which I believe is higher than 50 million, due to a scale hike this year, is a nice start. Quinn will find talent in the draft, no matter the round. Then you hand this talent over to Patricia & his staff, who I truly believe can & will develop them into a solid team. 

That would absolutely help us get to the next level if it was an issue. I don't know if the issue with KVN was scheme vs coaching/development but there has to be something to it.

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11 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

And win back to back Super Bowls? Brady and Bellichick aren't doing this all on their own. Guys have to block, run, catch, tackle in order to make things work.

I hate the Patriots because they're really boring. They're always winning and tend to reload as opposed to rebuild. Having the GOAT at the most important position in all of sports does help. However, if we can bring to that to the Lions, I'd be glad to have a decade where people are annoyed at us for constantly winning.

They reload? With other teams cast offs.?. and I'm fine doing that

Their drafts is were I have a problem

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1 hour ago, Rockcity2 said:

They reload? With other teams cast offs.?. and I'm fine doing that

Their drafts is were I have a problem

Free agency is just one part of the overall process, especially for the Patriots. They're very particular in who they bring on because they have a specific role in mind and find a player that fits those traits to plug that hole. KVN is a great example. They needed a guy purely as a pass rusher. They found a willing trade partner in Detroit with a guy that was being asked to do a few different things. He was struggling and as a result, production was low. NE brings him in and asks him to do one thing and he excels. They don't have a bellcow RB, they have a few guys that do different things and they mix-and-match them in their game plans. They try to take advantage of the opponents weaknesses in order to win. They are a system/scheme based team. It's why they can continually find success with other teams cast offs and players drafted in the lower rounds.

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On 1/18/2018 at 7:45 AM, Karnage84 said:

Thanks. I appreciate it! I was curious about how things might play out. I don't think the 2016 draft can be a fair evaluation of what is Quinn's methodology while 2017 alone is too small of a sample. I'd also like to take a look at Schools/Conferences and the rounds selected, etc. It would be interesting to see if they favour a particular school or conference and where they tend to slot these (ex. probability of taking a SEC LB or DB in the higher rounds; take Big Ten OL in the mid rounds, etc.)

It'd be interesting to work out a blueprint and see how far off it is vs reality. If the Lions stay put and draft Guice at 20, it would basically blow the whole thing up. Drafting a RB let alone one in the 1st is contrary to what the Patriots have done for the last 7 years.

I thought they spent a first on that RB out of Minnesota a few years back

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12 hours ago, Millenhater said:

I thought they spent a first on that RB out of Minnesota a few years back

Laurence Maroney - he was their sole 1st round RB out of all of Bellichick's tenure in Foxborough. That was in 2006. Since BB started:

  • 2000 - 3rd round and 7th (FB)
  • 2002 - 7th round
  • 2004 - 4th round
  • 2006 - 1st round
  • 2007 - 7th round
  • 2011 - 2nd and 3rd round
  • 2014 - 4th round

In 17 years, he has drafted 9 RB's. 1 1st; 1 2nd; 2 3rd; 2 4th and 3 7ths. Anything is possible and we could wind up breaking the trend and picking a 1st round RB. I just don't see it as likely.

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On 1/23/2018 at 11:02 PM, Rockcity2 said:

They seem to draft to fit what they want not best player available 

Not a fan at all if that's the case..

If things don't turn out and mp is fire and we change things and players now don't fit..

It's not an exact science so a bpa often times doesn't end up bps (best player selected) a few years down the road. 

The Patriots are the best because they have a coach who has proven to be one of the best at scheming and adjusting as the game progresses. In a system like theirs, it is best to draft based on need which isn't just about physical skills but also based on the player's mindset. The Pats generally bring in 'football players' first and leave the best athletes who just happen to be good at football to the likes of the Lions and Browns. 

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1 hour ago, khaosoy said:

It's not an exact science so a bpa often times doesn't end up bps (best player selected) a few years down the road. 

The Patriots are the best because they have a coach who has proven to be one of the best at scheming and adjusting as the game progresses. In a system like theirs, it is best to draft based on need which isn't just about physical skills but also based on the player's mindset. The Pats generally bring in 'football players' first and leave the best athletes who just happen to be good at football to the likes of the Lions and Browns. 

Look at the patriots drafts.. They suck.

Your right when you have a great coach and you get good cast offs you still win..it sure isn't bc of their drafts

You got an example of what your even talking about??? Sounds like a bs reason to draft bad..every team wants a football player that wants to play fb..its an area they are not good in 

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26 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

Look at the patriots drafts.. They suck.

Your right when you have a great coach and you get good cast offs you still win..it sure isn't bc of their drafts

You got an example of what your even talking about??? Sounds like a bs reason to draft bad..every team wants a football player that wants to play fb..its an area they are not good in 

I think what he's trying to say is that they aren't getting the top level athlete. They're looking for a guy that is smart and instinctual with good technique.. that might run a little slower.

At the end of the day, this is all comes down to winning games and championships. The Patriots know how to do that with their eyes closed. I don't think BB is too worried about your thoughts on whether his draft was "good" or not.

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1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

I think what he's trying to say is that they aren't getting the top level athlete. They're looking for a guy that is smart and instinctual with good technique.. that might run a little slower.

At the end of the day, this is all comes down to winning games and championships. The Patriots know how to do that with their eyes closed. I don't think BB is too worried about your thoughts on whether his draft was "good" or not.

Bpa isn't just how fast you run...its all a factor

Well when we get BB I probably won't care much about our drafts either..lets hope Mp is now a Jedi master 

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