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Bears Early Draft Strategy Thoughts


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1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

You list a bunch of failed picks, but more often than not the blue chip guys are really good.

Bosa

Elliott

Ransey

Went 3, 4, 5 in the same Draft. The blue chip guys go early.

 

That is why I said there are a few I would stay put for. I was just stating that they often do not turn out either.

 

No way in hell I go that early for Elliott though. Even knowing in hindsight how good he would be.

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2 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

You list a bunch of failed picks, but more often than not the blue chip guys are really good.

Bosa

Elliott

Ransey

Went 3, 4, 5 in the same Draft. The blue chip guys go early.

Agreed. To me the only true blue chip players in this draft are Minkah, Chubb, Nelson and Barkley. I think the chance that either of the first two are there at 8 is incredibly low, Barkley plays a position where we already have a 24-year old pro bowler and Nelson plays the position that yields the most top-tier players from non-1st round selections. I think the next group of 10-15 players behind those 4 guys, which includes 4 QBs, is all going to grade out very similarly. 

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6 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Draft strategy

1. Take the best CB, OT, OLB at 8.

2. Take the best WR in the 2nd round unless someone jumps off at one of the above positions.

3. Improve depth and addresss the left over positions.

Absent a trade down this is where I’m at too, pending FA of course. If we add 2 starters at WR I’m FA I’d actually prefer to hit one of the top 3 positions you mentioned in round 2 and go WR with one of our 4ths. This year’s group of WR isn’t top heavy but it’s a deep group IMO. I think there will be a lot of value in that 3-4 range at WR especially if we don’t need that drafted WR to be a day 1 impact player. 

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39 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Absent a trade down this is where I’m at too, pending FA of course. If we add 2 starters at WR I’m FA I’d actually prefer to hit one of the top 3 positions you mentioned in round 2 and go WR with one of our 4ths. This year’s group of WR isn’t top heavy but it’s a deep group IMO. I think there will be a lot of value in that 3-4 range at WR especially if we don’t need that drafted WR to be a day 1 impact player. 

If we can’t hit WR with 2 legitimate options then I would move WR down to the 4th round. But they would have to be 2 starting caliber WRs, not a reclamation project.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

If we can’t hit WR with 2 legitimate options then I would move WR down to the 4th round. But they would have to be 2 starting caliber WRs, not a reclamation project.

I don’t disagree. I have gone on record being against Jarvis Landry here for the price tag (Adams money) but at least he’s a really good fit for Nagy. 

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11 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Draft strategy

1. Take the best CB, OT, OLB at 8.

2. Take the best WR in the 2nd round unless someone jumps off at one of the above positions.

3. Improve depth and addresss the left over positions.

I would like this but I'm prioritizing it as OLB, OL and then CB in round 1.

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10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree. I have gone on record being against Jarvis Landry here for the price tag (Adams money) but at least he’s a really good fit for Nagy. 

You are right on Landry. He is a really poor scheme fit for the money.

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Leave it to the Bears to go try hard and let 4 QB needy teams in front of them in the draft so they don't have to trade past them.  That hurts your options and a nice potential haul, no sugar coating that.

However, what helps is teams don't just want A QB.  They want THEIR QB, the one they want.  Like Shula famously said to his GM about Marino.  So trades will happen or they risk missing out.  Despite what some revisionist history says I think Cleveland gambled big time that Trubisky would be there at 12 and lost.  And then they drafted the ND guy as an afterthought hoping to get lucky, it was obvious from way they handled him that there was no love there.  If you want a guy you have to go get him or wait until next year and in NFL next year is not guaranteed.

Like others have pointed out you can go get Cousins, Bradford, Bridgewater or like Bears did get a Glennon.  But those are guys who can (maybe) win games, but probably can't win the big game.  Everybody wants to win it all and hit the homerun and nobody cares about a winning record and first round losses.  So also rans and retreads, while maybe better option, are not as exciting as rookies with unknown potential to fans or GMs.

Everybody knows if you have a loaded team you can win with a just decent QB, but everybody wants the great QB anyway and that's the way the game is played currently.

You still have Cardinals and Bills drafting after Bears who are desperate and those are teams you need to target. 

You also have Brady, Breese, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rogers who are all getting old or are old.  Flacco has played mostly like crap of late.  Titans and Jags have loaded rosters and haven't had great QB play although Titans QB may be because of nagging injuries and Bortles last game was impressive (but one before was beyond awful).  Tampa Bay probably isn't looking, but Winston hasn't looked that good despite a good roster. 

You say none of these teams will trade up for a QB, but KC surprised everybody last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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There are always offers on the table, guys. A team 2-3-4 picks behind us may want to move up for their guy, too. The question always boils down to what Pace values more, the players available at #8 or the players available at a lower pick + additional draft currency.

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Bills could sign Bridgewater and keep the two first round picks

Cards can trade a 2nd get Alex Smith and not have to trade a 1st this year and 1st next year

Guys please you are vastly overvaluing the 8th pick in the draft its not going to be a hot pick and no one is going to give us RG3 trade value.  Teams has better options than trading multiple first round picks for Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudloph. 

 

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37 minutes ago, Rogerthat said:

If Chubb Falls to 6 do you see Pace jumping the Bucs and drafting him ?

No because we have no 3rd round pick, because we traded up for Mitch because we won a stupid, meaningless game against the 49ers in 2016.

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3 minutes ago, G08 said:

No because we have no 3rd round pick, because we traded up for Mitch because we won a stupid, meaningless game against the 49ers in 2016.

trade the 2019 3rd and then recoup the pick with a trade back In the second. 

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2 hours ago, Rogerthat said:

Bills could sign Bridgewater and keep the two first round picks

Cards can trade a 2nd get Alex Smith and not have to trade a 1st this year and 1st next year

Guys please you are vastly overvaluing the 8th pick in the draft its not going to be a hot pick and no one is going to give us RG3 trade value.  Teams has better options than trading multiple first round picks for Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudloph. 

 

Who said they’re expecting RGIII trade value for 8? Last year though KC traded 27, a 3 and the following year’s 1 for 10 for Mahomes. More than half of the final 8 this year have either an aging legend with no successor in place or a question mark with a current non-elite younger starter, and that group doesn’t even include Buffalo. A comparable trade is far from out of the question. 

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