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You Don't Need to Take QB


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The first thing I'm looking at with the Browns is the debate from media or fans of do you need to take a quarterback? My answer is NO. When I look at Deshone Kizer, I don't think I've seen enough to say he can't play in this league. Remember he was a RS Sophomore coming out and he just went to the worst team in the league with no weapons to take the burden off him, and he didn't look terrible. I thought he played well against the Steelers defense, with the only starter missing in Cam Heyward in the final game, and minus a bad drop could've won that game. Look at Jared Goff. He had no weapons and then he got some WRs, so they couldn't stack the box and Gurley had a MVP season and Goff looked like a stud. Goff put on 10 pounds in the offseason, and you gotta remember Kizer is still physically maturing. With a good offseason and some more weapons I see no reason to believe Kizer can't be as productive as Goff next season. Problem is he needs a back and a WR opposite Gordon.

Since I feel comfortable with Kizer, I'd still like some competition and I'd bring in Alex Smith when he gets cut. Or a Teddy Bridgewater. I'm not giving up a pick for Alex Smith. I would also think about taking a QB day three and suddenly I have the best QB room. EVER. In the franchise's existence. You need to draft an All-Pro with top 5 picks and I'm not convinced there is an Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, or John Elway this draft. You're probably looking more at the Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Eli Manning variety, or maybe even down to Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf with this class. That's not worth the risk. If I take a QB and fail, I'm right back to where I started. I need to start moving forward. What happens if you take a QB and the guy you got ends up being better? You can't have that risk.

With that being said..... I start free agency

 

QB Alex Smith - 3 years, $45,000,000 

I'm going Alex Smith because I'm not really trying to catch lightning in a bottle here. I'm looking for a three year rebuild and then Dallas Cowboys dynasty three Super Bowls in four years. The Browns have so many holes. Alex Smith gives me a NFL QB and competition for Deshone Kizer. If you go Bridgewater or Cousins here you are effectively giving up on Kizer, and I'm not quite sure I would go there. I'm giving Alex Smith the same exact deal as Mike Glennon, but will give him more money up front with a signing bonus, and saying you are in an open competition with Kizer and whoever else we bring in. 

Year One cap figure: $14,000,000

The next one is a little tricky. Trying to predict what guys will get franchised and what not. I'm looking at the Rams with their $45m cap space and I'm guessing they can't or won't sign all three of Trumaine Johnson, LaMarcus Joyner, and Sammy Watkins. They'll probably franchise either Joyner or Watkins and sign the other one to a long-term deal from now until free agency opens March 3rd or whatever day it is. I'm thinking the Trumaine Johnson ship has kind of sailed so that's who I'd focus on. 

 

CB Trumaine Johnson - 5 years, $70,000,000

 

Using the AJ Bouye deal as a guide 5 years, $67,500,000 I think Johnson should be somewhere in that range. Given he had a down year, I think he will get less but it may cost the Browns more given their situation. Johnson gives you a #1/#2 CB that will help that defense immediately. I'll give him a $12m signing bonus with a $8m roster bonus year two. With salaries of $10,000,000 per year. [(12/5) + 10] = 12.4. He'll bring home $30m in the first year, so this is a done deal. This year he made $16m on the tag.

Year one cap figure: $12,400,000

 

TE Jimmy Graham - 5 years, $40,000,000

 

Why Jimmy Graham when you have David Njoku? What I'm thinking is when you have a young QB you need to nurture him like a baby animal that has yet to learn to hunt and take care of itself. The short pass game and having a few good TEs creates some matchup nightmares and will help move the young QB along. Jimmy Graham would still be deadly in the red zone and used in many two TE sets. Think Gronk and Hernandez. I'll give him $8m signing bonus and a $4m roster bonus year two. Year one salary of $5m. [(8/5) + 5] = 6.6.

Year one cap figure: $6,600,000

 

DB Kenny Vaccaro - 5 years, $60,000,000

 

Coming off an injury, but I think the kid can play. It looks like the top guys like Berry are getting $12m AAV and given the injury and the fact he's not as good he should come in less. I don't see him getting franchised, and I think there will be some competition for his services, so the Browns might have to have the best offer by $10m over the next bidder. Eric Reid is the backup plan, but I like the way Vaccaro plays, and I have some money to spend, so I'm willing to overpay to get a player that I know can play ball. I'll give Vaccaro $10m signing bonus. And a roster bonus year two of $5m. Salaries of: 5.75m, 8.5m, 9.5m, 10.5m, 10.75m. [(10/5) + 5.75] = 7.5

Year one cap figure: $7,750,000

 

DE Dion Jordan - 5 years, $50,000,000

 

Without risk, there can be no reward. The good news is I don't think anyone will come near this figure. I went through the other EDGE guys I liked and Attaochu reminded me of Jason Worilds looking at him in the NFL. Ansah will be tagged. DeMarcus Lawrence will be tagged. In terms of physically gifted skills, this guy might be the best "available" player. I've always liked Jordan and he needs to be in the right scheme. He thrived in the 4-3 scheme in Seattle and opposite Myles Garrett could give you two ends that get pressure like Osi and Strahan did for the Giants when they won two Super Bowls. Maybe an overpay. Definitely an overpay. But it actually might end up being a great deal. If he busts, I'll cut him. Probably structure this contract as a risk-reward type deal. I'm going to go a little more complex with the deal here and take some risk off the table. $7.5m signing bonus because I gotta butter him up to sign here and that's real money I think he'd accept. $2.5m roster bonus year two. Option bonus year three $12m. Salaries of: 1.5m, 4.5m, 6m, 8m, 8m. [(7.5/5) + 1.5] = 3. If you cut him after the year, he will be on 2019 cap for $6m. If you June 1 designate him he would be on 2019 cap for $3m and 2020 cap for $3m. That's a way to spread the damage over multiple years. If you cut him before the roster bonus that roster bonus becomes void. If you cut him before the option bonus it becomes void, because that's a bonus you exercise much like a player option in other sports. The difference is that would be added to his salary and "pro-ration" portion of contract unlike the other sports. It's a way to put more money in the deal, but just gives you less risk, because it's an option. Normally teams would take that $12m plus a portion of his salary in this example say $3m of his $6m salary turn that into a "signing bonus" and spread that (amortize) that over the deal. So, if that's the only change made throughout his contract his new 2020 cap figure would be [(7.5/5) + (15/3) + 3] = $9.5m. Keep in mind that (15/3) we just created would also be on the 2021 and 2022 seasons. So 2021 would be [(7.5/5) + (15/3) + 8] = 14.5M. Teams do this to create flexibility from year to year. By the time we get to 2021, I would probably be thinking extension, because even if he succeeds I'm not sure I want to pay him $14.5m.

Year one cap figure: $3,000,000

 

WR Josh Gordon - 5 years, $65,000,000

 

Gordon is a ERFA. But I'm not messing around. This is the best player on my team. From what I've seen from just looking at his social media accounts is that this is a changed man. I'm willing to invest in Josh Gordon, and I could understand Browns fans hesitation, given what he has put you through. When I look into his eyes, I see a changed man and when I read what he writes I can see how FAR he has come growing and maturing through his journey. Although I believe in him, I'm not going gung-ho crazy on the Josh train, so his signing bonus will be somewhat small given his abilties. I also don't have to give him this money now, so hopefully he understands that his leverage is small. I'll go $7.5m signing bonus. $2m roster bonus year two. Most of Josh's money will come through salary. So, if he screws up I can just cut him and it won't hurt the franchise that badly. Salaries of: 8m, 10m, 12.5m, 12.5m, 12.5m. [(7.5/5) + 8] = 9.5

Year one cap figure: $9,500,000

 

Would like to add Sheldon Richardson as well.....

 

 

NFL Draft

 

Here's my favorite part about the Cleveland Browns. One of the problems here is that there are so many QBs this class, so teams might be hesitant to trade up. However, the good news is not all QBs are the same and someone is going to come up for Darnold or Rosen. Teams might have different favorites, which should serve the Browns well. John Elway is a pretty savvy guy, so I'm not sure if I can get him to come up, because he might just think if you take A, and B goes as well, I'm fine with C. One thing I know for sure is that John Elway likes BIG QBs. So, he's not ending up with Baker Mayfield. I've seen Broncos wanted Mayfield on Senior Bowl team or whatever team and that's just an opportunity to do your due diligence. Let's not overreact here. The proof is in the pudding with Elway and being a tall, prototype QB himself, he wants a tall prototype QB as well. Just look at his teams. With all that being said, at the end of the day, I think John Elway comes up for a QB, because he knows he can't get Rosen and Darnold if he stays put at 5th overall. He knows his team is getting absolutely slaughtered since Manning left with these garbage QBs. So, he's coming up for a QB. I'm hoping someone separates themself from the pack and that's who Elway will come up for.

Denver trades 5th overall, 2019 1st, 2019 2nd, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd for 1st overall 

I'm willing to let Elway keep his 2nd rd pick this year, because I'm not going anywhere, and he needs that pick to help make his team a playoff contender. The price is three 1's and two 2's for the top pick. Much like Ernie Accorsi wanted for when he held the top pick in the '83 draft and the rights to John Elway.

1) DENVER - Sam Darnold QB USC

I think he takes Darnold. He seems more like the California surfer dude that John sees in himself. He has the most potential of any QB this class. Not without his faults. He is inconsistent and has zero pocket awareness. He makes splash plays and then overthrows the WR by five yards and it's like WTF. Rosen is more pro ready, but I got Rosen as a Matt Ryan, and I don't think you give up that draft capital for Josh Rosen. Comparison: Eli Manning

 

2) NEW YORK - Josh Rosen QB UCLA

With Eli sitting there and a new regime in place, they make the move that it's time to draft a QB. Rosen is a Matt Ryan clone. He is pro ready and is ready to start day one in New York. His personality is sneaky. I like him. He's mature and I think he isn't exactly Broadway Joe, but he's confident and is the perfect fit for New York. Comparison: Matt Ryan

 

3) INDIANAPOLIS - Saquon Barkley RB PENN STATE

If they don't take Barkley, Indy should riot. He's exactly the guy you want taking pressure off Andrew Luck in the run game and easy check downs. Gives you special teams as well. Think Marshall Faulk, who played on the Colts before he was famous. Comparison: Marshall Faulk

 

Back to Cleveland again. And we're on the clock. And we hold the next two picks. How about just picking up a King's ransom and we passed on Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Marshall Faulk. The Marshall Faulk hurts - but RBs are a dime a dozen, and I'm better positioned for the long haul. Ohhhh no -- the phone rings. And this might be too good to be true. It's Arizona and GM Steve Keim. He knows it's very possible New York 6th overall, Cincy 12th overall, and Washington 13th overall could all be looking at QB and he's looking at a barren cupboard at 15th overall. Arizona has been teetering in mediocrity since Warner took them on a run. They need a QB that has a chance to be elite.

Arizona trades 15th overall, 47th overall, 2019 1st, *2020 2nd for 4th overall

Note: In terms of trade value this resembles the RGIII trade. The difference was roughly 1,000 pts from 4th to 15th and they gave the 2nd from this draft, a future 1st, and a future 2nd two years down the road. 

*After watching Allen, I'm amending the 2020 2nd to a conditional pick. If the Cardinals make the playoffs in either the 2018 or 2019 season that becomes a 1st rd pick. Look, Steve, I'm passing up on a generational talent here.

 

4) ARIZONA - Josh Allen QB WYOMING

I thought I'd give him a look so I could speak intelligently on the matter, and I think I'm in love. This is probably my #1 QB and I watched him for 1:30 seconds. He has good movement in the pocket, a big frame, and a strong arm. I did see his bowl game and he hit someone on a skinny post and I remember thinking that was a laser and a NFL type throw that only the elite guys can make. Maybe it was just the #17, but he reminded of Philip Rivers, but if you move his arm up from the 3/4 arm angle and juice up the arm a few notches more to a Matt Stafford level arm. Comparison: Philip Rivers 

 

Finally, we find ourselves on the clock and I'm right where I always wanted to be. Picking the best defensive player in the draft. The Browns gave up the 2nd most points in the league. And I don't care if you have Andrew Luck at QB, if your defense is Swiss cheese you're going to lose games. Problem is I got four players or more that I want in this spot. So, I'm calling up the Chicago Bears, because they mortgaged some of their future, and I'm taking advantage of a sucker that needs some picks. But, first, I'm taking the can't miss. When I got four players that I love, who can I not live without? 

 

5) CLEVELAND - Minkah Fitzpatrick CB ALABAMA

I'm not sure what the safety talk or Saban was smoking but this guy is a shutdown cornerback. It seems like for a few years now I've wondered is this Minkah's draft eligible year. Didn't see much of him in either of his playoff games. That's good. Your classic shutdown CB type. Now in nickel packages more than ever this guy can play slot or outside CB. He gives me a variety of options at defense. Your classic defensive back in every meaning of the word. He is as smooth as silk. Comparison: Darrelle Revis

 

6) NEW YORK - Baker Mayfield QB OKLAHOMA

I think if I pass on Minkah, they take him. Jets and Baker just seem like the bravado of New York. Jets gotta have a QB now, right? Comparison: Jeff Garcia

 

7) TAMPA BAY - Bradley Chubb DE NC STATE

Maybe the best player in the draft here. Mario Williams type. Comparison: Mario Williams

 

The Bears got their QB but need some picks back badly to start rebuilding. They use their poor season and just fall back a bit in draft position and pick up some picks in the process. With a variety of holes themselves, they go for quantity instead of quality.

Cleveland trades 2019 1st (via AZ), 35th overall (via HOU), 65th overall, 2019 CLE 3rd to Chicago for the 8th overall pick

8) CLEVELAND - Derwin James S FLORIDA STATE

This is a potential Roquan Smith landing spot. But I got a little trick up my sleeve here. I can get Roquan Smith value at a lower spot in the draft. On Derwin James. One he is a physical freak the talent of Jalen Ramsey or Sean Taylor. And I can't pass up that freakish ability. This is a Pro Bowler from day one. Hard-hitting, fast, playmaking safety. Now, I've put a lot of assets into my secondary, so you may question this. The Browns only forced 13 turnovers on the year - the worst in the league. The Jaguars have a similar offense to yours but all of a sudden they force 33 turnovers (2nd in the league) and they are in the AFC Championship game. They have Fournette and an OL. Don't tell me Bortles is worth a schilling. Force turnovers. Get in good field position. Score more points.

I'm basically looking a Legion of Boom type defense formulating in Cleveland. Call it Cleveland Cavaliers patrolling the secondary picking balls off left and right.

CB - Trumaine Johnson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason McCourty

S - Kenny Vaccaro, Derwin James

Dime LB - Jabrill Peppers

 

9) SAN FRANCISCO - Quenton Nelson G NOTRE DAME

Not a very interesting pick. Seems to be the highest rated OL and 49ers need OL help.

 

10) OAKLAND - Roquan Smith LB GEORGIA

Here's the landing spot for Smith. He will not fall below this point. Pro Bowler. Comparison: Derrick Brooks

 

11) MIAMI - Arden Key EDGE LSU

Andre Branch and Cameron Wake. Could use an upgrade there and Wake has some tenure.

 

12) CINCINNATI - LaMar Jackson QB LOUISVILLE

Think he does best in a system where he can sit and learn. Rare tools. Risky Randall Cunningham or Vince Young type pick. Does he stick at QB? Comparison: Vince Young

 

13) WASHINGTON - Vita Vea DT Washington

More of a NT need here. Solid plugging up holes. That's what she said.

 

14) GREEN BAY - Joshua Jackson CB IOWA

Packers need help in secondary and this guy comes from a zone scheme in Iowa and should fit in like a glove.

 

15) CLEVELAND - Da'Ron Payne DT ALABAMA

I'm thinking like a Gerald McCoy here. He can stop the run and rush the passer. Agile. Mobile. Dynamic defender. He might actually fall this far given team needs. Comparison: Gerald McCoy.

I've now got a front four of Myles Garrett, Danny Shelton, Da'Ron Payne, and Dion Jordan. And the Cleveland Cavaliers patrolling the secondary. We're not giving up more than 17 PPG.

DT - Danny Shelton, Da'Ron Payne

DE - Myles Garrett, Dion Jordan

33) CLEVELAND - Tremaine Edmunds LB VA TECH

Wait, not done yet. How does a 6'5" 250 pound LB sound. I think I'm getting Roquan Smith here. He's arguably a better tackler, better closing speed, how is this guy 6'5" 250. He can FLY. I think he plays anywhere at LB in any system and could be a Ray Lewis type. This is a Pro Bowler. This defense might not give up 15 points per game. I'm going to have him play strongside LB in a 4-3 so don't get carried away that he must be Ray Lewis at MLB. He will use that size and speed to cover Gronk in AFC Championship games. Comparison: Ray Lewis

 

It's time to call our buddies Chicago. We need to start scoring some points on offense. 

Cleveland trades 60th overall (via PHI) and 2019 CLE 2nd to Chicago for 39th overall

39) CLEVELAND (via CHI) -  Courtland Sutton WR SMU

They call him Julio Jones. He's not that fast. More like a Brandon Marshall. Josh Gordon and BMarsh. Dats just nasty. Comparison: Brandon Marshall

 

47) CLEVELAND (via AZ) - Malik Jefferson LB TEXAS

This was supposed to be Bryce Love. That's okay. We'll get him next year. This guy reminds me of Vontaze Burfict. He's good sideline to sideline. He's my beast in the middle. Schobert kicked to weakside LB. I'm not taking anymore players on defense. Probably for the next two years. Comparison: Vontaze Burfict

 

108) CLEVELAND - Bo Scarbrough RB ALABAMA

Here's your thunder in the backfield. We're gonna control the clock. Use our best asset on offense our OL and pound the rock. Now we got two WRs, two TEs, and a RB. Keep in mind we're going Bryce Love next year to complete the dynamic duo. Comparison: Derrick Henry

137) CLEVELAND - Kurt Benkert QB VIRGINIA

Good size, mobility, and arm strength. Maybe like a Carson Palmer here. Getting the same look as the QBs in the beginning not too mention that I have built a dominant defense and still have a plethora of picks in the upcoming years. Comparison: Carson Palmer

145) Michael Dickson P TEXAS

First rule is value with every pick. He won the Ray Guy award in 2017 and averaged 48.4 yards per punt with a long of 76. 

 

You got 175, 185, and 219 left and I can't knowledgeably draft a player from where I sit today. Ideally, if I can move the punter down and take another player in that spot like WR that would be the move, because I have a buffer that there are a few good punters. A few takes. We have the best defense in the league. We have a secondary, pass rush, and a LB core that teams will fear. Teams no longer want to play the Browns because they are going to be sore for the next week. She might have said that as well. We won't give up more than 17 PPG for the next decade.

The biggest takeaway is the fact that since I passed on QBs in the first round, I was able to acquire more picks and build a defense that will be feared for years to come. We got a few good weapons on offense, but the defense between UFA and draft will have a Jacksonville Jaguars type effect. I was able to still come away with a QB that I think can compete at the next level at a value where it's like I'd rather have Benkert at 135th overall than Sam Darnold at 1st overall. That's what the NFL Draft is - a value proposition. Whomever has the best draft, gets the most value, and that translates into All-Pros and more wins. That's the name of the game.

One final thought is the future picks that I still have to take another crack at QB. Because that's all a draft pick is, especially at quarterback. I'm looking at these picks to find a quarterback if I still don't have that guy:

2019 1st, 2019 1st (DEN), 2019 2nd (DEN), 2019 4th, 2019 5th, 2019 6th, 2019 7th,

2020 1st, 2020 1st (DEN), *2020 1st (AZ), 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2020 4th, 2020 5th, 2020 6th, 2020 7th,

2021 1st, 2021 2nd, 2021 2nd (DEN), 2021 3rd, 2021 4th, 2021 5th, 2021 6th, 2021 7th

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@Money

Really nice write-up.

I couldn't disagree more on passing on a QB, and I also see Derwin James as more LB than safety (especially not a FS) who has the versatility to play SS.

Kenny Vaccaro is also a SS.

I also don't view Minkah as a boundary CB1 after a few games last year exposed him at that sopt and Hunter Renfrow exposed him at nickel CB1 in their matchup as well.

Love the accumulation of draft capital, and I like the Edmunds and punter pick.

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Thanks for the thoughtful write up. I can tell you've put a lot of thought/effort into this.

That said, anyone who has seen this team play KNOWS that they need a QB. Passing on one, let alone the top ranked QB in this draft class, is nothing short of stupid.

Just because this team has $100 million in cap room doesn't mean they should blow all of it, although I'm sure a lot of folks want to see us lock up Gordon. I think that they will if he goes a year plus clean.

Drafting Derwin James and signing Vaccarro while also having Peppers is like a trio of the same type of player, not to mention Minkah potentially as well unless he turns into the next Jalen Ramsey hybrid.

Drafting Payne with Ogunjobi and Shelton on the roster, not to mention Brantley is a blown 1st rounder.

Drafting Edwards at #33 with Kirksey, Collins, (both locked up long term) and Pro Bowler Joe Schobert, who is under 25, is also a terrible pick, and then you double down on terrible picks by drafting ANOTHER LB high in the 2nd.

Basically this draft addresses zero weaknesses in the first two rounds, with the possible exception of Fitzpatrick and I do like the Sutton pick.

I do think a lot of people are open to trading pick #4 for a return like that from Arizona.

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4 hours ago, Money said:

33) CLEVELAND - Tremaine Edmunds LB VA TECH

Wait, not done yet. How does a 6'5" 250 pound LB sound. I think I'm getting Roquan Smith here. He's arguably a better tackler, better closing speed, how is this guy 6'5" 250. He can FLY. I think he plays anywhere at LB in any system and could be a Ray Lewis type. This is a Pro Bowler. This defense might not give up 15 points per game. I'm going to have him play strongside LB in a 4-3 so don't get carried away that he must be Ray Lewis at MLB. He will use that size and speed to cover Gronk in AFC Championship games. Comparison: Ray Lewis

Most mocks (and we know what they're worth...) have this guy going to Miami at like #11, so doubtful he would fall this far.  But then again, you never know....

Otherwise, I'm not sure I dig all the moves with all the needs we have.

I really would like to see us use our picks, let the draft come to us, not panic, and just have an ***-kicking draft.  Now, if that happens to involve a little movement with that #4 pick, that's cool, but I'm not going to be too happy if we start dropping down, down, down....

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OK, @Money, first things first.  You just cannot come into the Browns forum, and toss around John Elway's name all "willy-nilly" like that.  It is uncouth at worst, and just downright meanspirited at best.  ;) 

 

That having been said, it is a very interesting approach to our offseason.  With all of the secondary help you're bringing in, I'm not sure that adding Vaccaro is necessary, however.  I think Payne may also be a bit of a "luxury" pick, as we've got a half way decent group of young DT's.  (I would be on the look out for the best young LT we can find, as I think that we've seen the last of Joe Thomas in a football uniform.)  :( 

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I like that you spent money on positions of need.  I don't like the idea of passing on a QB.  I do not believe your 1st round picks in particular fit Cleveland's needs. 

If we had a QB in place, those trades for #1 and #4 would be out freaking standing.  But we need a QB, we've needed one since the Browns ruined poor Tim Couch. We have a good offensive line in place, decent position players (which I expect to add some top tier players in the draft/free agency at RB and WR).  It's time to get our QBOTF, our franchise QB, our savior. 

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26 minutes ago, OttoGrahamsGhost said:

I like that you spent money on positions of need.  I don't like the idea of passing on a QB.  I do not believe your 1st round picks in particular fit Cleveland's needs. 

If we had a QB in place, those trades for #1 and #4 would be out freaking standing.  But we need a QB, we've needed one since the Browns ruined poor Tim Couch. We have a good offensive line in place, decent position players (which I expect to add some top tier players in the draft/free agency at RB and WR).  It's time to get our QBOTF, our franchise QB, our savior. 

I agree we need that quarterback.  Here is my question to you guys...If we draft, say Darnold, you all really don't want him playing at all this year, do you?  You hope we get a vet for him to sit behind and learn, right?  Same with Kizer?  I, for one, do not want the kid playing his first year.  I think a year of learning would be the best thing.  Thoughts?

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11 minutes ago, Kathouse Sticks said:

I agree we need that quarterback.  Here is my question to you guys...If we draft, say Darnold, you all really don't want him playing at all this year, do you?  You hope we get a vet for him to sit behind and learn, right?  Same with Kizer?  I, for one, do not want the kid playing his first year.  I think a year of learning would be the best thing.  Thoughts?

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