Trentwannabe's 2018 Mock Draft *UPDATED*

[Trentwannabe]

I wanted to get in on the mock draft party. I did my best to try and guess what Beane and McDermott would do in free agency (get younger) and draft wise (build inside out).

Bills Current Cap: $28.7 million

Bills cut:
Vlad Ducasse (saves $1.3m)
Jerry Hughes restructure (saves $2.7m)

Bills trades:
Tyrod Taylor and pick 149 (5th) to Arizona for a 3rd (pick 76) and 7th (pick 207)

These moves put the Bills at roughly $43.4 million in cap space. 

Bills re-sign:
QB Joe Webb - Plays all special teams, emergency QB and WR. Great Veteran - 2 year 2.5 million
CB Leonard Johnson - I wasn't a huge fan of his especially since veteran QB's knew how to attack him. But he is a solid option inside. - 3 year 4.2 million
DT Kyle Williams - Two year deal with a player option - 2 years 11 million
RB Travaris Cadet - Looked like he could be something special -1 year 900k.
DE Eddie Yarbough - ERFA
TE Nick O`Leary - ERFA

Bills free agency:
QB Sam Bradford - Veteran QB who is smart enough to run Daboll offense and is an insurance policy if Buffalo can`t get their guy. 2 years 26 million
TE Niles Paul - depth at the position and a solid blocker - 2 year 1.4 million
WR Danny Amendola - Surprise move for some. But Amendola is the perfect compliment to a rookie QB and he could really help Jones evolve. - 1 year 5 million
NT Dontari Poe - Fills a need and this will be Buffalo's "bigger FA signing" - 3 years 23 million
LB Nick Bellore - Veteran LB to add depth - 1 year vet minimum 

Approximate Bills cap after free agency: $7,300,000

2018 NFL Draft:

Round 1
Bills trade pick 21 and 22 to SF for the 10th overall pick and pick 70 (3rd round)
Bills Select QB Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 
- Brandon Beane said he wants players who hate to lose a game of dice. That is Mayfield. Sean McDermott loves players who had to work for what they have and don`t get handed anything. That is Mayfield. Also, RPO`s will be the buzz word all off-season because of the Eagles and Brian Daboll coming from Bama`. The Bills will need a QB who can execute those plays and Mayfield is the most accurate QB in the draft. His on field manor will rub people the wrong way, but he is a true leader and grown men will follow him. I personally think his mantra will fit in perfectly with the city of Buffalo. *From the 49ers point of view, GM Lynch has shown he likes moving around the draft board and after locking up Jimmy, they will look to add more pieces and blue chip players.*

Round 2:
Pick 53: LB Leighton Vander Esch Boise St
- He is not Luke Kuechly but he is a pretty darn good LB who fits nicely in to what McDermott wants to do. Can get out to the flats rather quickly and plays through the whistle. He may never be any better than Brown is against the run, but he is not as much of a liability in the pass game and Buffalo can have him on the cheap for longer.

Pick 56: CB MJ Stewart North Carolina
- The Senior Bowl really helped his stock and this guy screams McDermott. Long limbed corner who is a model citizen. Pairing him with White for the next 4 years could give the Bills one of the best corner duo`s in the league. 

Round 3:
Pick 76: DE Marcel Frazier Missouri 
- Bills need more bodies across the DL and Frazier had a productive career at Mizzu. He should be a nice rotational guy for the Bills and add a fresh body on 3rd downs. 

Pick 93: OG Sean Welsh Iowa
- It remains to be seen if John Miller gets another shot at the RG spot and Incognito likely only has one maybe two season left. Bills need to add young bodies to the OL.

Round 4: 
Pick 114: WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico St.
- Much like the OL the Bills need more bodies at the WR position. Beane grabbed Benjamin and Funchess in Carolina, he could try to recreate that with Benjamin and Scott here. At 6`6 215lbs he is a miss match for DB`s and runs a 4.4. Buffalo has shown interest in Scott this past college season. 

Round 5:
Pick 157: DT Poona Ford Texas
- I could see the Bills adding multiple pieces to the DL in the draft and free agency. Poe is signed long term, and now Ford could come in to replace Williams if Washington doesn`t step up.

Round 7:
Pick 207: RB Ralph Webb Vanderbilt 
- I think next season is when the Bills take a RB high. This is a flier on a guy who was very productive in college and had a nose for the endzone (32 rushing TD`s)
 

 

Depth Chart:
QB: Mayfield, Bradford, Peterman
RB: McCoy, Cadet, Webb
FB: Dimarco
TE: Clay, O'Leary, Paul, Lee
WR: Benjamin, Amendola, Jones, Scott, Holmes, Reilly, Webb
LT: Dawkins
LG: Incognito, Welsh
C: Groy, UDFA
RG: Miller
RT: Glenn, Mills

DE: Lawson, Yarborough
1T: Poe, Hatley
3T: Williams Washington, Ford
DE: Hughes, Frazier
WLB: Milano, Humber
MLB: LVE, Bellore 
SLB: Alexander, Vallejo, Lacy
CB: White, Stewart, Johnson, Borders, UDFA
FS: Poyer, Anderson
SS: Hyde, Thomas

P: Schmidt 
K: Haushcka
LS: Reid

[BigMountainGoat]

People keep saying we will cut Hughes, and the answer is the same every time.

We have a terrible pass rush, we won't cut our best rusher. Its really simple. In an ideal world, would you get rid of Hughes? Maybe. But we arent the Jacksonville Jaguars who had pass rushers by the bucket load. 

And why would the Chiefs trade us Smith? We are realistic AFC rivals for the wildcard spot, and they know along with the rest of the league we need a QB, and why would they want Taylor? The reason they would move Smith (which I ultimately dont think they will), is because they think the QB they spent 2 1st rounders on, is ready to start. Why would they then trade for a player who would be wanting to compete to start, and on associated money. That trade makes zero sense from a Chiefs side

I think I'd be sick if we played Glenn at Guard. He would be on absurd money for the position, we already have a Pro Bowl Guard there. I dont see why we would cut him, to then pay even more money to play a tackle at that position.

I admire the effort you put into that mock, it just has huge things in it that make no sense.

[LeeEvans]

1 hour ago, BigMountainGoat said:

People keep saying we will cut Hughes, and the answer is the same every time.

We have a terrible pass rush, we won't cut our best rusher. Its really simple. In an ideal world, would you get rid of Hughes? Maybe. But we arent the Jacksonville Jaguars who had pass rushers by the bucket load. 

And why would the Chiefs trade us Smith? We are realistic AFC rivals for the wildcard spot, and they know along with the rest of the league we need a QB, and why would they want Taylor? The reason they would move Smith (which I ultimately dont think they will), is because they think the QB they spent 2 1st rounders on, is ready to start. Why would they then trade for a player who would be wanting to compete to start, and on associated money. That trade makes zero sense from a Chiefs side

I think I'd be sick if we played Glenn at Guard. He would be on absurd money for the position, we already have a Pro Bowl Guard there. I dont see why we would cut him, to then pay even more money to play a tackle at that position.

I admire the effort you put into that mock, it just has huge things in it that make no sense.

I agree with you on the Chiefs trade. I don't think that makes a ton of sense for KC, especially with Tyrod's contract. I don't think us being a "wildcard rival" would really impact their decision though.  

I also agree with you about Glenn, that kind of money on a guard is just something I wouldn't feel comfortable with. This is the first mock I've seen with moving on from Richie and while I can see the logic behind it it would just add to another question mark. Maybe flip Glenn to RT and move Dawkins to LT? 

The only thing I disagree with is Hughes. Yes he is probably our best pass rusher but he hasn't had a good season in like three years. He's also on a pretty large contract and has shown a huge lack of discipline time and again. I think you could certainly replace his production with someone for lesser money and cut down on stupid personal fouls as well. I really liked Hughes and he was probably my favorite player from the "Cold Front" days but I think it's time for him to go, just not enough production for his price and for the on the field mistakes. 

[Nick]

Harrison Phillips is a 2nd round talent at worst. Draft seems realistic aside from that. I'm a huge Edmunds fan.

I share a lot of the same thoughts as the previous replies. Not a fan of Alex Smith, more specifically the trade. All for moving Tyrod though.

I'd love to find a way to move Glenn via trade versus playing him at guard. He's always hurt and overpaid. I'd rather move on from him, just my opinion though.

[BigMountainGoat]

4 hours ago, LeeEvans said:

 The only thing I disagree with is Hughes. Yes he is probably our best pass rusher but he hasn't had a good season in like three years. He's also on a pretty large contract and has shown a huge lack of discipline time and again. I think you could certainly replace his production with someone for lesser money and cut down on stupid personal fouls as well. I really liked Hughes and he was probably my favorite player from the "Cold Front" days but I think it's time for him to go, just not enough production for his price and for the on the field mistakes. 

I think you make logical points, my concern is we already have a massive hole and lack of production at DT, and Lawson whilst a reasonable edge setter offers little rush threat. In an ideal world I'd move on from Hughes, but unless we have a clear solution to replace him it feels very risky. I'd rather address DT this off season, and next off season reshape DE by which point you know what you have in Yarborough and Lawson. To rebuild DE and DT in one off season seems a stretch. I also suspect Hughes would be helped by having a proper interior rush again, it's been him vs the world the last couple of years

[Buffalo Fan]

I really admire your effort you put in on the Mock offseason thank you!!  First I agree with cutting Hughes but not Richie I'd like to see him here for at least another year as first he made the pro bowl this year and second I think we have to many holes to fill already we don't need another one.  Second I'd love to get Alex Smith for a 3rd rounder in 3019 But I think the Chiefs would get at least a 3rd this year as an offer.  Second I don't think they would take on Taylor's contract to be a backup making 18 million?  I would try and trade Glenn for best available offer he is very talented but overpaid and injury prone.  I like your moves in FA and I like the draft as well I'm a huge Rudolph fan but I agree with you he needs to sit for two seasons to learn then earn a starter spot after that.  Again Thank You 

[BuffaloBulldog]

Smith would be an awesome addition next year. He's been on some really solid playoff teams over the years and a change of scenery might do him some good. I think as far as stop gap QBs while we try to find a franchise QB go, Smith would be at the top of the list. 

Love McGlinchey in the first round. Easily my biggest draft crush for the Bills this year. I think he'd be an absolute mauler of a RT and give us one of the best rushing attacks in the league, similar to what Tennessee did with Jack Conklin in 2016. The rest of the draft is all solid although I think Cain and Phillips might go earlier than where you have them but who really knows until after the combine and pro days (especially for Cain).

Really like the Albert Wilson signing. Would be an awesome deep threat addition which is something we seemed to be lacking last year. Poe and Ealy would get the Bills back to having a decent pass rush which would do wonders with our secondary. 

Not sure how Glenn would take to being moved to guard. Wish it was something they tried years ago. I'd rather move him out at this point (mostly because of his salary). I think cutting Richie would be a pretty huge blow to the locker room. The cap savings would be nice but he's definitely one of the biggest leaders on the team and is still playing at a pretty high level. 

Overall I'd be super happy if this is how things turned out this year, awesome job!

 

 

 

[LeeEvans]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBulldog said:

Smith would be an awesome addition next year. He's been on some really solid playoff teams over the years and a change of scenery might do him some good. I think as far as stop gap QBs while we try to find a franchise QB go, Smith would be at the top of the list. 

Love McGlinchey in the first round. Easily my biggest draft crush for the Bills this year. I think he'd be an absolute mauler of a RT and give us one of the best rushing attacks in the league, similar to what Tennessee did with Jack Conklin in 2016. The rest of the draft is all solid although I think Cain and Phillips might go earlier than where you have them but who really knows until after the combine and pro days (especially for Cain).

Really like the Albert Wilson signing. Would be an awesome deep threat addition which is something we seemed to be lacking last year. Poe and Ealy would get the Bills back to having a decent pass rush which would do wonders with our secondary. 

Not sure how Glenn would take to being moved to guard. Wish it was something they tried years ago. I'd rather move him out at this point (mostly because of his salary). I think cutting Richie would be a pretty huge blow to the locker room. The cap savings would be nice but he's definitely one of the biggest leaders on the team and is still playing at a pretty high level. 

Overall I'd be super happy if this is how things turned out this year, awesome job!

 

 

 

I agree with you on just about everything. I was kind of meh on Smith when it was first floated out there but I'm coming around to it more. I think this is just about the best offseason scenario the Bills could really hope for. I'm still a little scared by not taking our chance on a franchise QB but that's my only real complaint.

[Trentwannabe]

Appreciate the feedback everyone!

Also, welcome to the forum @BuffaloBulldog!

[soflbillsfan]

I do not get this at all with people wanting to cut the best pass rusher the bills have at the thinnest position on the team?

Cutting Hughes would be a massive mistake, whether people see it or not he actually had one of his better years. Qbs passing in the flats on his side were at an all time low, he almost reached his top year in tackles and played over 100 snaps less than that year and was short by 6 tackles. McDermott doesn't rush the passer as much as other guys like Schwartz so you cannot bas his performance on sacks as he was doing what the coaches playbook said. Also bills DT position was at its weakest in over a decade which causes plenty of issues for DE causing Hughes to be double teamed and sometimes even triple teamed. Letting him go to clear up a few million isnt worth it even if it was a post June 1st cut the 2019 cap would suffer because of it. He is still young to play the position and keeping him at one of the thinnest positions on the team would be the smart move.

Im not sure if this was before or after Wood announcing retirement but cutting a probowl LG is ridiculous to me. The guy has been clearing gaps for Shady for the last 3 years and needs to be extended a year or 2 just because he is 34 doesnt mean he is on the decline he has shown that he is capable of performing at a high level so why let him go? extending him 1-2 years can reduce his cap significantly and still have a probowl LG. He will be needed more then ever now that Wood has to retire. 

I am a fan of resigning Gaines and Johnson I think those are 2 important guys to resign as the DBs production was better when Gaines was on the field then when he was not, only concern is some of the injuries he had this year but none were to serious which he should be 100% healthy for the beginning of the season.

Kyle Williams is likely done I do not see him coming back as he will end his career on a high note with making the playoffs and his good friend on the team had to retire due to serious injury. He was planning on retiring this offseason as he has been building his home that he finally was able to move in to in Louisiana and has enough money to retire so I expect him to be gone.

Resigning Preston Brown is a mistake. I know he led the league in tackles but that just proved how bad the bills DT position was allowing players to get the ball to the next level but it doesn't necessarily mean he is amazing. He did a solid job with the bills and could ask for more but with that being said I do not want him to be resigned he is to slow to go sideline to sideline and thats what the bills need. Carolina's D had one of the fastest LB corps in the league and I expect McDermott to make a move for a quick MLB whether it is in FA or in Draft. My suggestion is to keep an eye on an ex bill with Nigel Bradham he still has the speed to fill that position and will be a free agent. 

If the bills end up keeping Glenn then I expect either Dawkins or Glenn to kick to the RT position and cutting Mills. Paying Glenn 14 mil to play Guard is a bit of a stretch. I would like for them to go in and get a real RG Miller was a healthy scratch for 6 games last year and would have been for 10 if he didnt get injured in practice so I expect the bills to move on from him if he couldnt beat out the horrible Ducasse. With Groy filling in for Wood at Center I would like to see them bring in a couple of OG one to play RG and one to play C/G. Will Hernandez from Texas-El Paso would be a great addition in the 2nd rd he is a beast and could be the starting RG.

Trading Tyrod to KC isnt happening and the reason is because KC is already 9 mil over cap and they would move alex smith to free up that 17 million (3 of 20 mil is dead cap for Alex) in order to pay their draft picks. People are giving Tyrod to much credit he isn't going to be a trade piece in anyway, giving 10 million and draft pieces for a guy who is clearly a back up or a camp competitor with a rookie is his position. Also keep in mind he will have to want to go to KC and knowing he wont have a chance to start week 1 he will not agree to it. So this isnt going to happen. I think Alex Smith will be the Bills qb next year, giving up a 3rd rd pick this year and a 3rd that can be turned in to a 2nd next year based on performance would likely get the deal done. Alex Smith will expect a new contract which I can see 4 years 90 million would realistically get it done to keep both sides happy. he is 34 years old and will likely can play until 38-39 as most QBs are going to that point these days and front loading the contract for the next 2-3 years can give the bills an opportunity to fill their needs through the draft this year and possibly next year then drafting a future qb in 2020 by going up and getting their guy like KC did with a team already built around him. This has been the bills motto this year, building to win now and the future. Making this move would continue that. 

I like the signing of Wilson and Poe, I could see Star in place of poe if he resigns with Atlanta. I do not think Ealy will be available as I have a feeling the Jets extend him as he has proven to be decent for them and with them likely moving on from Wilkerson that would make 2 starting DE in free agency so I think Ealy stays with them.

As for the draft it is to early to say yay or nay on but one thing is for sure DT Harrison Phillips from Stanford is already projected as a 1st rd pick I do not see him falling to 4th rd especially having a solid senior bowl performance all week. Bills may look at him with the 21/22 pick.

[Yibbyl]

Welcome, soflbillsfan!

A lot of what you said makes sense, especially regarding Ealy. I also do not see us trading Taylor, but wouldn't rule out the option of releasing him outright for the Cap savings. Also agree on Preston Brown. I've bitched about him since day one. Like Tyrod, Brown is a backup at best IMO. As for replacing him in the middle with Bradham, we had Bradham before. Sure, he's fast, but aside from overall speed, McDermott's MLB's also have been able to perform well in coverage, even Panther backup Klein. When Bradham was on our team, he stunk in coverage as much as Brown does. Just don't see him as the solution there.

[Trentwannabe]

BUMP!