NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I'm going to do 3 of these before each of the main offseason stages. One now, before the draft process starts and one before and after Free Agency. I'm gonna try to make it as complete and comprehensive as possible with the draft with actual pick numbers, trades and cap hit allocations, Free Agency with cap hits and contract lengths and Roster adjustments with releases, UDFAs and depth charts. We start with our cap space. Depending on which site you look at and where the salary cap lands, we have between 15mil and 22mil in cap space. I'm gonna split the difference with the knowledge that these overall figures can and probably will change. So I will say we have 18.5mil in Cap space for the purpose of this rundown. Roster Moves Released Donald Penn - He will be slow to recover despite what he promised and the young guys will be given the reins in OTAs. We could save even more dough with an injury settlement. (Saved: $5,600,000) Released Sean Smith - I have a strong feeling he will be found guilty in his pending case and we will cut ties with him. He will also face an NFL suspension. We save big money (Saved: $8,500,000) Released Bruce Irvin - Bruce doesn't fit the system and doens't like the restructure we offer. He goes back to Seattle on a 1+1 deal. (Saved: $8,250,000) Released David Amerson - Amerson is a cap casualty with injury and concussion concerns. If we weren't able to sign Cockrell in FA we might offer a restructure but we were. (Saved: $6,000,000) Released Seth Roberts - Roberts just doesn't fit what Gruden is looking for as a WR. He isn't dynamic or unique and his hands have been far too streaky. (Saved: $2,450,000) Released Marshall Newhouse - Newhouse is just beaten out in this new scheme by the young guys. He signs somewhere else as a solid depth guy. (Saved: $1,750,000) Mack signs a 6yr $120mil deal with $80mil guaranteed. His previous cap hit was 13.8(5th yr option). His cap hit for 2018 is now 14.5mil including an $8mil roster bonus. The next 5 yrs his cap hit avg is $21 mil. (Added: $700,000) Cap space is now $50.35mil FREE AGENCY - * Ross Cockrell CB 4yr/$30mil/7.5mil - We add a guy that just plays hard and produces as a starter. He fits the pattern matching style ALA played and the press man that Guenter plays. Solid sign. With T.Johnson, Gaines, Fuller, Butler and Breeland all becoming FAs after solid seasons I think we have a legit shot getting this done. He gives us insurance for the rookies and is verstile. Dontari Poe DT 3yr/25.5mil/8.5mil a yr - A big man in the middle. This could've been a resign of Ellis but Poe is an upgrade at the position in terms of pass rush and fits the 4-3, one gap scheme better. Terrence Brooks FS 2yr/4mil/2mil a yr - Brooks plays the middle of the field well and is a key special teamer. A guy ready to step up for more snaps if he can prove it or in event of an injury. Korey Toomer MLB 2yr/4mil/2mil a yr - Toomer is back on a small deal to compete with the young guys and rookies on the interior and vie for a ST captains patch. Solid contributor that wanted to look for starter money but the market won't be there IMO. Bowman MLB 3yr/15mil/5mil a yr - Frankly, an easy deal to get done. Both parties want it. Bowman can continue to captain the defense and teach the young LBs. This will be a Reggie deal as usual that protects the team in case of aging or injury.Autry DE 3yr/9mil/3mil a yr - I debated this one. This slot can be taken by a more expensive upgrade or a draft pick. But for 3mil and Autry wanting to be here, I went this route.Carrie CB 3yr/15/5mil a yr - I like Carrie. Some don't. I think he sticks with us on a reasonable deal and stays as the Swiss Army knife and depth guy he has been. 2018 FA cap hit - $33mil Cap space is now $17.35mil We will also resign a bunch of our RFA and EFRA to fill the 90man offseason roster. I didn't include them as their salaries are minimal and most won't count toward the cap but will list the guys that I foresee being roster factors in the depth chart wrap up. 2018 NFL Draft - # Trades - (T) Compensatory pick - c (T1) - our 1st rd pick (10th) traded to Buffalo for two 1st rd picks(21st, 22nd) and a 4th rd pick (120th).(T2) - our 4th rd pick(110th) traded to Dallas for a 4th rd pick (116th) and a 5th rd compensatory pick (176th). Rd - Pick# - Player - Pos - School 1(T1) - 21 - Vita Vea - DT - WASH 1(T1) - 22 - Rashaan Evans - LB - ALA 2 - 41 - Chukwuma Okorafor - OT - W MICH 3 - 75 - Josh Sweat - EDGE - FSU 4(T2) - 116 - Kevin Tolliver - CB - LSU 4(T1) - 120 - Allen Lazard - WR - IOWA ST 5c(T2) - 176c - Kyzir White - S - WVU 6 - 188 - JoJo Wicker - DL - AZ St. 6 - 195 - Tony Brown - CB - ALA 6 - 212c - Shaquem Griffin - LB - UCF 6 - 215c - DaeSean Hamilton - WR - PSU 6 - 218c - Lavon Coleman - RB - MISS 6 - 220c - DuVonta Lampkin - DT - OKL 7 - 230 - Braxton Berrios - WR - MIA UDFA - ^ Kyle Lauletta QB Richmond Marcus Baugh TE OSU Lester Cotton OG ALA Afolabi Lagunda S Colo Rookie cap allocation - roughly $12mil Ending Cap Space $5.8mil Depth Chart - # = Draft Pick, * = FA, ^ = UDFA, ( ) = Practice Squad/Bubble, [ ] = IR/Designated to Return/Injury ? QB - Carr Cook (Lauletta^) HB - Lynch Washington Coleman# Richard (Hood) FB - Olawale WR - Crabtree Cooper Lazard# Patterson Berrios# Holton (Hamilton#) TE - Cook Walford Brown (Baugh^) OT - Okorafor# Sharpe Ware Alexander OG - KO Jackson Feli (Cotton^) C - Hudson Stone DT - Poe* Vea# [Vanderdoes] Wicker# (Hestor) DE - Mack Edwards Sweat# Autry* Ward NICKEL DE - Mack Sweat Cowser Autry DT - Vea Edwards Autry Wicker Ward SLB - Evans# Sweat Cowser MLB - Bowman* Lee Toomer WLB - [James] Morrow (Griffin#) SS - White# Joesph (Lagunda^) FS - Obi Brooks* (Luani) CB - Conley Corkrell Carrie Tolliver# Brown# Hamilton (Richardson) NB/Rover - Joesph Carrie Brown# ST - King Vechie East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinCity Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Nice job NTL. I am not sure I would want to release Penn just yet. I do accept your arguments of why, but have we seen enough of Sharpe to know he is the long term answer on Carr's blindside? I mean he may be that guy, just a small body of work to study. I also think Seth Roberts would have dead money if you cut him - but you would have enough cap space left over for that. I really like the acquisition of Cockrell and Poe. Ellington leaves me underwhelmed, but it is not a huge contract, so whatever. Also, I don't think you can trade compensatory picks. As for the draft, Ward, Evans, Michel are instant starters, Nnadi makes sense and below that the picks that really stand out are Lazard (good player on a poor offense), Crosby and Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CerealKiller Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Who is Buffalo trading up for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver&Black88 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 How did Guice happen? He appears on the depth chart but I can't find where he's picked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Silver&Black88 said: How did Guice happen? He appears on the depth chart but I can't find where he's picked My bad, I had two version where I had Guice and Michel as the 2nd rd pick. Just forgot to sync it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SinCity said: Nice job NTL. I am not sure I would want to release Penn just yet. I do accept your arguments of why, but have we seen enough of Sharpe to know he is the long term answer on Carr's blindside? I mean he may be that guy, just a small body of work to study. I also think Seth Roberts would have dead money if you cut him - but you would have enough cap space left over for that. I really like the acquisition of Cockrell and Poe. Ellington leaves me underwhelmed, but it is not a huge contract, so whatever. Also, I don't think you can trade compensatory picks. As for the draft, Ward, Evans, Michel are instant starters, Nnadi makes sense and below that the picks that really stand out are Lazard (good player on a poor offense), Crosby and Hamilton. The cutting of Penn and Roberts was more about the cap saving and putting corroborating reasons on it so it makes a better argument. Penn wasn't a great T last year anyway IMO, so going with the young guys in a new system isn't a huge gamble IMO. Ellington is meant to serve a purpose, not be a huge addition. He is meant to keep us versatile. I was gonna do big write ups on all the draft picks but figured that would be overkill. But I have watched each of them in at least 3 whole games to get a feel for there skill. I also cross check their draft status with 3 different sources or more to get an idea of the range people think they'll go. It's easy to just take the guys you like but I tired to look at it as a real gm doing his best to take the best player for the team and fill holes. I came away liking the draft overall though I didn't end up with the bulk of my draft favorites. Like you said, Lazard and Crosby are good value picks. I thik the defense gets stronger with Evans, Nnadi, Thomas and Watts. I would also point to WR Berrios in the 7th rd and UDFA Lavon Coleman. I think both would be great value picks and would eventually be helping the team in the coming years when Crab and Lynch are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver&Black88 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said: My bad, I had two version where I had Guice and Michel as the 2nd rd pick. Just forgot to sync it. No worries ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 46 minutes ago, CerealKiller said: Who is Buffalo trading up for I had them trading up for a QB. I don't know how Cleveland, NYG, NYJ or Denver will play it yet or if we will be in front of the Niners but there is a good chance that Jackson, Mayfield and/or Allen is still on the board when we are on the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SinCity said: Nice job NTL. I am not sure I would want to release Penn just yet. I do accept your arguments of why, but have we seen enough of Sharpe to know he is the long term answer on Carr's blindside? I mean he may be that guy, just a small body of work to study. I also think Seth Roberts would have dead money if you cut him - but you would have enough cap space left over for that. I really like the acquisition of Cockrell and Poe. Ellington leaves me underwhelmed, but it is not a huge contract, so whatever. Also, I don't think you can trade compensatory picks. As for the draft, Ward, Evans, Michel are instant starters, Nnadi makes sense and below that the picks that really stand out are Lazard (good player on a poor offense), Crosby and Hamilton. Oh and you absolutely can trade comp picks. They changed that rule last yer or the year before. Edit: Link for proof - http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/14274468/nfl-owners-ok-compensatory-pick-trading-2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Free agency: I’m not a fan of this FA haul as it seems to heavily rely on the Raiders trading back to acquire more picks (easier said than done) and hit on rookie starters. I’m not a fan of paying Cockrell that much. I seem him more of a $6-7 million a year player. Also not a fan of the Ellington signing. 4 years? $3.5 million? That’s not camp battle money, that’s here’s the job over Richard money. Give me Richard over Ellington. I’m a fan of bringing both Carrie and Bowman back, but Carrie’s number is a pipe dream. $3.3 is little over half of what he’ll likely get in the open market. Draft: Love the trade back if the team can spring it. I think it’s a little optimistic to think it goes down like that, though. Ward is a stretch at 21 and Crosby is a Mr. Fantastic level stretch in round 6; he’s a day 2 player. Roster: Honestly, the roster looks rough heading into the season. Outside of Crosby, tackle is in rough shape. The defensive line offers no pass rush threat outside of Mack (again). Also, Watts over Joseph? I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: Free agency: I’m not a fan of this FA haul as it seems to heavily rely on the Raiders trading back to acquire more picks (easier said than done) and hit on rookie starters. I’m not a fan of paying Cockrell that much. I seem him more of a $6-7 million a year player. Also not a fan of the Ellington signing. 4 years? $3.5 million? That’s not camp battle money, that’s here’s the job over Richard money. Give me Richard over Ellington. I’m a fan of bringing both Carrie and Bowman back, but Carrie’s number is a pipe dream. $3.3 is little over half of what he’ll likely get in the open market. Draft: Love the trade back if the team can spring it. I think it’s a little optimistic to think it goes down like that, though. Ward is a stretch at 21 and Crosby is a Mr. Fantastic level stretch in round 6; he’s a day 2 player. Roster: Honestly, the roster looks rough heading into the season. Outside of Crosby, tackle is in rough shape. The defensive line offers no pass rush threat outside of Mack (again). Also, Watts over Joseph? I don’t think so. Thanks for the feedback. Respect your opinion on the FA haul but I think you'll be surprised with what the corners this year will get. Of course, if we can get him for cheaper that is better. Ellington is to give us something Richard can't and to compete in the spots they overlap. He is a vet He has WR hands and can regularly line up in the slot. Gruden will use that weapon. We need to get more dynamic on offense and while Richard has had a hand full of flash plays, he isn't that guy. Plus it's about building depth. The Pats aren't worried about paying 5 different backs because they know you need a bunch of different guys to run that multiple system. Like I said I couldn't didn't want to just grocery shop and take all the guys that I like. The roster isn't suppose to look all sown up. Every team goes into the year with spots where they need trust guys they develop and draft. But overall I like the depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dante9876 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Nice write up. I don' think bills would do that trade. All things pointed to them doing a rebuild that started last season. I can't see them trading those 2 picks for the 3rd or 4th or 5th best qb in this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightTrainLane Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, dante9876 said: Nice write up. I don' think bills would do that trade. All things pointed to them doing a rebuild that started last season. I can't see them trading those 2 picks for the 3rd or 4th or 5th best qb in this draft. Thanks... That really depends on which QB they like though, right? We don't know which team is gonna like Mayfield over Rosen or Allen over Darnold and vise versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolni Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Good, detailed work man! Cuts: I get that you wanted to free up as much dope as you can, but the Penn and the Irvin cut's without solid alternative options for their role is not realistic or effective IMO. FA: Ross is a bit too expensive for me. I'm not convinced Poe would sign for that and also not convinced we should give that much to a NT. If he can play as much as Lindval Jospeh for Zimmer then OK. Can't see why Ellington is an upgrade over Richard. Would love to have Autry and Carrie back on those deal IRL. Draft: Really like the trade! Like the first 3 rounds, however Nnadi seems to be a NT type (no?) and him with Pe might be too much run defense and too few pass rush... Can't really judge the rest, however Crosby is more of a 2nd rounder then a 6th according to the mocks, reports, rankings I recently saw... Roster: I can't really see where our pass rush will come from? Big issue here for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinCity Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 8 hours ago, NightTrainLane said: Oh and you absolutely can trade comp picks. They changed that rule last yer or the year before. Edit: Link for proof - http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/14274468/nfl-owners-ok-compensatory-pick-trading-2017 Wow. I hadn't picked up on that - thanks NTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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