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NightTrain Off-Season 1 of 3 (Revised Jan 21)


NightTrainLane

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8 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

The cutting of Penn and Roberts was more about the cap saving and putting corroborating reasons on it so it makes a better argument. Penn wasn't a great T last year anyway IMO, so going with the young guys in a new system isn't a huge gamble IMO. 

Ellington is meant to serve a purpose, not be a huge addition. He is meant to keep us versatile.

I was gonna do big write ups on all the draft picks but figured that would be overkill. But I have watched each of them in at least 3 whole games to get a feel for there skill. I also cross check their draft status with 3 different sources or more to get an idea of the range people think they'll go.

It's easy to just take the guys you like but I tired to look at it as a real gm doing his best to take the best player for the team and fill holes. I came away liking the draft overall though I didn't end up with the bulk of my draft favorites. Like you said, Lazard and Crosby are good value picks. I thik the defense gets stronger with Evans, Nnadi, Thomas and Watts. I would also point to WR Berrios in the 7th rd and UDFA Lavon Coleman. I think both would be great value picks and would eventually be helping the team in the coming years when Crab and Lynch are gone.

 

I totally agree with the cutting of Roberts as he uses 'slipem' rather than 'stickem'. Why we ever gave a contract to a flash play guy who drops the ball way too often is beyond me (he is the WR version of Richard - fantastic highlight reel but not a guy you can rely on imho) - it was simply that if we cut him there is $2m of dead money to incorporate into your cap (according to overthecap.com).

On Penn, I do agree that he is getting older and 'wasn't great last year', all I was saying is better the devil you know sometimes. Sharpe (or someone else) will have to replace Penn at some point as he will not go on forever, but are the two starts that Shape has enough to give us assurance that our franchise QB won't take a beating? Maybe it is and maybe it is not but personally I would rather see a little more of him before making that decision - what does everyone else think about Sharpe? Would you be comfortable with him starting at LT in 2018.

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18 minutes ago, SinCity said:

I totally agree with the cutting of Roberts as he uses 'slipem' rather than 'stickem'. Why we ever gave a contract to a flash play guy who drops the ball way too often is beyond me (he is the WR version of Richard - fantastic highlight reel but not a guy you can rely on imho) - it was simply that if we cut him there is $2m of dead money to incorporate into your cap (according to overthecap.com).

Robert's dead money was incorporated into my cap. That's why I wondered what you were on about. The cap savings was $2,450,000 of his overall $4,450,000 salary.

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1 hour ago, Rolni said:

Good, detailed work man!

 

Cuts:
I get that you wanted to free up as much dope as you can, but the Penn and the Irvin cut's without solid alternative options for their role is not realistic or effective IMO.

FA:
Ross is a bit too expensive for me.
I'm not convinced Poe would sign for that and also not convinced we should give that much to a NT. If he can play as much as Lindval Jospeh for Zimmer then OK.
Can't see why Ellington is an upgrade over Richard.
Would love to have Autry and Carrie back on those deal IRL.

Draft:
Really like the trade!
Like the first 3 rounds, however Nnadi seems to be a NT type (no?) and him with Pe might be too much run defense and too few pass rush...
Can't really judge the rest, however Crosby is more of a 2nd rounder then a 6th according to the mocks, reports, rankings I recently saw...

Roster:
I can't really see where our pass rush will come from? Big issue here for me!

Obviously this isn't a perfect roster and it isn't meant to be one. I said before I tried to make it realistic in the sense that you have things you want to do as a GM but you definitely can't accomplish all of them.

Looking at the critique from you and @Rich7sena, there are a few things I can correct like Carrie's contract expectations and Crosby's draft range. 

I just don't want to edit too much because no off season is perfect and fills every hole and need.

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13 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Released Seth Roberts - Roberts just doesn't fit what Gruden is looking for as a WR. He isn't dynamic or unique and his hands have been far too streaky.
(Saved: $2,450,000)

Cutting Roberts would cost the Raiders 2mil in dead money. They are not going to pay him 2 mil to leave, so he will get another year IMO.

https://overthecap.com/player/seth-roberts/3762/

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That is, and has been, my position too, if you look back at previous posts.

But it is also possible that Gruden would rather have the 2.5mil to use in another way than to have Roberts on the roster. if we draft a few WRs that Gruden thinks are more dynamic I don't think it's so far fetched. Only so many roster spots and we can all agree that Roberts wasn't very effective last year. That was the thinking I used when deciding to let him go.

 

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Cutting Roberts would cost the Raiders 2mil in dead money. They are not going to pay him 2 mil to leave, so he will get another year IMO.

https://overthecap.com/player/seth-roberts/3762/

Just like they weren’t going to fire JDR after giving him an extension. Roberts hasn’t produced in the last 18 months and with Gruden in charge we could see these unproductive players get the boot. 

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On 1/21/2018 at 8:48 AM, Chali21 said:

Just like they weren’t going to fire JDR after giving him an extension. Roberts hasn’t produced in the last 18 months and with Gruden in charge we could see these unproductive players get the boot. 

paying JDR didn't have any effect on the cap. cutting roberts would. with JDR, its just a matter of how much cash mark was willing to fork over. with roberts, you'd have to be confident you can upgrade his roster spot with the 2.5 mil in savings

i dont know that you're going to find a FA wide receiver worth a lick at that price range... and you'd have to invest more draft resources into one position than otherwise. is that worth the 2.5? we'll see

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I don't think we can afford to release Penn, seeing that we have minute sample sizes and left tackle is one of the most important positions in football. Penn has played well enough to give himself benefit of the doubt, especially being on an island at times in the AFC West. I don't see the need to create a need, especially because he isn't being overpaid.

Also, seeing how well Irvin played late in the season when the scheme changed, I think Guenther can find a way to keep him as a productive player. 8 million for a good complimentary rusher is very fair pay too. Again, why cut a good, proven player at a premium position.

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57 minutes ago, raiderrocker18 said:

paying JDR didn't have any effect on the cap. cutting roberts would. with JDR, its just a matter of how much cash mark was willing to fork over. with roberts, you'd have to be confident you can upgrade his roster spot with the 2.5 mil in savings

i dont know that you're going to find a FA wide receiver worth a lick at that price range... and you'd have to invest more draft resources into one position than otherwise. is that worth the 2.5? we'll see

If you get his level of talent for less than you cut the guy. Roberts isn’t a #1 WR he’s a fringe #3. You can find those guys for fairly cheap. The Raiders didn’t draft Roberts and they don’t have to draft his replacement either. 

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1 minute ago, Chali21 said:

If you get his level of talent for less than you cut the guy. Roberts isn’t a #1 WR he’s a fringe #3. You can find those guys for fairly cheap. The Raiders didn’t draft Roberts and they don’t have to draft his replacement either. 

thanks for clarifying.

just because he wasn't drafted doesn't mean you dont have to fill his roster spot one way or another. unless you want to bank on a fresh UDFA as our #3 receiver. you either have to sign a #3 from the free agent market (likely wont cost less than 2.5 mil), draft one, or bank of UDFA

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Just now, raiderrocker18 said:

thanks for clarifying.

just because he wasn't drafted doesn't mean you dont have to fill his roster spot one way or another. unless you want to bank on a fresh UDFA as our #3 receiver. you either have to sign a #3 from the free agent market (likely wont cost less than 2.5 mil), draft one, or bank of UDFA

I get where you’re coming from. No sense in making a hole for no reason. Look you’re right however i could see the logic in dropping Roberts. If Gruden doesn’t like the guy because he drops too many passes and Gruden things he can work with someone else than I’m okay with it. Thing is about Roberts is he hasn’t played to the high level he did for the last 18 months. If you can upgrade you do it but if you can’t, like you say, then you don’t. 

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28 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I don't think we can afford to release Penn, seeing that we have minute sample sizes and left tackle is one of the most important positions in football. Penn has played well enough to give himself benefit of the doubt, especially being on an island at times in the AFC West. I don't see the need to create a need, especially because he isn't being overpaid.

Also, seeing how well Irvin played late in the season when the scheme changed, I think Guenther can find a way to keep him as a productive player. 8 million for a good complimentary rusher is very fair pay too. Again, why cut a good, proven player at a premium position.

I addressed these decisions(Penn: down play, injury rehab, young guys stepping up and Irvin: system fit, restructure refusal, overall team fit) already but I understand where you are coming from. These are fictional scenarios. None of us knows how it will shake out. I took a stab at it this way. Gruden is basically drafting and bring in bunch of guys he and Reggie like and getting rid of guys he thinks he can replace that help the cap. Every decision has another side but I like this version tho and how we are setup for now and the future.

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On 1/21/2018 at 11:48 AM, Chali21 said:

Just like they weren’t going to fire JDR after giving him an extension. Roberts hasn’t produced in the last 18 months and with Gruden in charge we could see these unproductive players get the boot. 

How are these two things the same? JDR's contract doesn't count against the cap and he was replaced by someone the owner coveted. 

Roberts is a WR3 right now. Will come to camp and loose his job should someone step up to take it. Unless they sign Jarvis Landry to the slot and pay him to leave lol.

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3 hours ago, big_palooka said:

How are these two things the same? JDR's contract doesn't count against the cap and he was replaced by someone the owner coveted. 

Roberts is a WR3 right now. Will come to camp and loose his job should someone step up to take it. Unless they sign Jarvis Landry to the slot and pay him to leave lol.

The idea is that money isn’t an issue if you’re looking to upgrade a position. 

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