Big Changes Afoot In Post-Purge Green Bay?

[TheOnlyThing]

13-year GM, he gone. Longest serving NFL DC, don’t let the door hitchya … . OC, see ya. Veteran front office personnel, enjoy Cleveland. QB/WR coaches, buh bye. DLine coach, sayonara. Head Coach/GM/$ Man, you now report to the Prez.

The great (and possibly not yet complete) purge in Green Bay surely means that the status quo is no longer acceptable. Given this newfound sense of urgency, accountability, and dare I say hope,, there will certainly be material changes in the way the Packers operate, both on and off the field, in 2018. Here are five predictions for 2018 that no sane Packer fan would have made prior to the purge:

1) The Offense will look considerably different. While it went under the radar with Rodgers being out and the defense sucking yet again last season, the offense showed a lot of cracks in 2017. Though MM remains in charge of the offense, I suspect he realizes the O needs to become more dynamic (both personnel wise and schematically) and cannot be so singularly reliant on Aaron's greatness. I take it as a positive sign that he brought back Philbin, because my hope is that MM will actually listen to Joe when he suggests changes. I somehow doubt Edgar Bennett played that role. My prediction is that we will see more significant changes on O in 2018 than we have in many years.

2) Round 1-4 draft picks will no longer be awarded playing time/roster spots. When a new GM arrives, he by definition has less loyalty to recent picks than the GM who selected those players. Moreover, Gut has already made a point of emphasizing that he expects competition (for playing time and roster spots) to be a hallmark of his regime. The notion that because a player was drafted he gets 4 years and almost unlimited opportunities to "develop" will no longer prevail. I see multiple round 1-4 picks who are still on their rookie deals being gone from the roster before game 1 of 2018.

3) Green Bay will NOT be among the youngest NFL teams in 2018. For many years, being among the youngest teams in the NFL almost seemed to be a badge of honor for some inside and outside the franchise. No more. The change began last offseason and it will only increase now that McCarthy added his voice to the many critics of the past managerial practice of relying upon so many young, untested players. I predict that when the 2018 season begins the Packers will be among the 16 OLDEST teams in the NFL. 

4) The Green Bay Packers Will Make a Trade Involving a Relevant NFL Player. That is not a misprint. I really mean it. After over a decade in the wilderness, the Packers under Gut will make a trade of or for a meaningful player (as opposed to the trades in which a nobody is dumped for a 7^th round pick that never materializes). For Packer fans old enough to remember the likes of Brett Favre, Keith Jackson, Javon Walker, and Al Harris, this renewed willingness to at least explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvement is a great development.  

5) The Opening Day Roster will feature <2 undrafted, rookie free agents (not including a possible long snapper). During the past several years, the fact that the Pack's roster featured so many undrafted rookies somehow came to be viewed as a feature not a bug. After pointed remarks by so many, including most importantly the head coach, the era of almost always filling roster holes with cheap, young undrafted players is over.

What other significant operational changes might we see this year?

[AlexGreen#20]

6 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

13-year GM, he gone. Longest serving NFL DC, don’t let the door hitchya … . OC, see ya. Veteran front office personnel, enjoy Cleveland. QB/WR coaches, buh bye. DLine coach, sayonara. Head Coach/GM/$ Man, you now report to the Prez.

The great (and possibly not yet complete) purge in Green Bay surely means that the status quo is no longer acceptable. Given this newfound sense of urgency, accountability, and dare I say hope,, there will certainly be material changes in the way the Packers operate, both on and off the field, in 2018. Here are five predictions for 2018 that no sane Packer fan would have made prior to the purge:

1) The Offense will look considerably different. While it went under the radar with Rodgers being out and the defense sucking yet again last season, the offense showed a lot of cracks in 2017. Though MM remains in charge of the offense, I suspect he realizes the O needs to become more dynamic (both personnel wise and schematically) and cannot be so singularly reliant on Aaron's greatness. I take it as a positive sign that he brought back Philbin, because my hope is that MM will actually listen to Joe when he suggests changes. I somehow doubt Edgar Bennett played that role. My prediction is that we will see more significant changes on O in 2018 than we have in many years.

2) Round 1-4 draft picks will no longer be awarded playing time/roster spots. When a new GM arrives, he by definition has less loyalty to recent picks than the GM who selected those players. Moreover, Gut has already made a point of emphasizing that he expects competition (for playing time and roster spots) to be a hallmark of his regime. The notion that because a player was drafted he gets 4 years and almost unlimited opportunities to "develop" will no longer prevail. I see multiple round 1-4 picks who are still on their rookie deals being gone from the roster before game 1 of 2018.

3) Green Bay will NOT be among the youngest NFL teams in 2018. For many years, being among the youngest teams in the NFL almost seemed to be a badge of honor for some inside and outside the franchise. No more. The change began last offseason and it will only increase now that McCarthy added his voice to the many critics of the past managerial practice of relying upon so many young, untested players. I predict that when the 2018 season begins the Packers will be among the 16 OLDEST teams in the NFL. 

4) The Green Bay Packers Will Make a Trade Involving a Relevant NFL Player. That is not a misprint. I really mean it. After over a decade in the wilderness, the Packers under Gut will make a trade of or for a meaningful player (as opposed to the trades in which a nobody is dumped for a 7^th round pick that never materializes). For Packer fans old enough to remember the likes of Brett Favre, Keith Jackson, Javon Walker, and Al Harris, this renewed willingness to at least explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvement is a great development.  

5) The Opening Day Roster will feature <2 undrafted, rookie free agents (not including a possible long snapper). During the past several years, the fact that the Pack's roster featured so many undrafted rookies somehow came to be viewed as a feature not a bug. After pointed remarks by so many, including most importantly the head coach, the era of almost always filling roster holes with cheap, young undrafted players is over.

What other significant operational changes might we see this year?

1. Same QB, Same Offensive oriented HC, Former OC who is now back. What would constitute a significant change for you? No **** the offense is going to play better with Rodgers instead of Hundley, but if that's the only prediction this is a yawner? There needs to be some set criteria.

2. Which players still on their rookie deals do you expect to be gone? Randall, Rollins, Montgomery, Ryan, Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell, Martinez, Lowry, King, Jones, Adams, Biegel, Williams are the entirety of your choices? You're probably picking from a pool of Rollins, Fackrell, and Lowry? Rollins coming off a torn achillies may not even be a possibility to be cut and would have to be an injury settlement. If this was your way of predicting that Fackrell will be cut, just come out and say so.

3. The Packers were the 11th youngest team by roster in 2017 and were IIRC in the 20s based on snaps played. If you want significant turnover of players, we're going to be getting younger and not older. House, Burnett, Evans, and Brooks are all pushing your average age up. If you want those guys gone, you're going to get younger. You have the same with the cut "candidates" in Cobb, Nelson, Bulaga, and Matthews. If the Packers just resigned their current guys and turned over the bottom of the roster with draft picks, the team would definitely be among the 16 oldest. This isn't a significant change in operating procedure, this is having an aging team. 

4. "This renewed willingness to explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvements is a great development." Did I miss a trade? Not saying that it's impossible, but there are  less than a dozen trades for what you would consider to be "relevant" players in an average year. There were roughly 6 last year. 

5. The Packers had 2 UDFA Rookies make the team at the break of camp last year. Lenzy Pipkins, and Chris Odom was claimed after camp. That's it. You seem to be indicating you're predicting sweeping changes and that's just not the case.

[TheOnlyThing]

23 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

4. "This renewed willingness to explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvements is a great development." Did I miss a trade? Not saying that it's impossible, but there are  less than a dozen trades for what you would consider to be "relevant" players in an average year. There were roughly 6 last year. 

Just like the previous GM, I guess some fans did indeed miss out on all the relevant trades that have been consummated by other NFL teams.

For example, here are then names of 6 relevant players participating in today's contests, who arrived via trade just this season:

Brandin Cooks (NE), Johnson Bademosi (NE), Jay Ajayi (Philly), Timmy Jernigan (Phi), Ronald Darby (Phi), and Marcel Darreus (Jax).

Oh, and NE has 7 players alone on their current roster who were acquired by trade.  

While it was just not done in GB over the past decade, lots of players have been traded throughout the NFL.

Got to love Gut's assertion that the Pack will no longer be ignoring this avenue for procuring talent.

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 hour ago, TheOnlyThing said:

1) The Offense will look considerably different. While it went under the radar with Rodgers being out and the defense sucking yet again last season, the offense showed a lot of cracks in 2017. Though MM remains in charge of the offense, I suspect he realizes the O needs to become more dynamic (both personnel wise and schematically) and cannot be so singularly reliant on Aaron's greatness. I take it as a positive sign that he brought back Philbin, because my hope is that MM will actually listen to Joe when he suggests changes. I somehow doubt Edgar Bennett played that role. My prediction is that we will see more significant changes on O in 2018 than we have in many years.

2) Round 1-4 draft picks will no longer be awarded playing time/roster spots. When a new GM arrives, he by definition has less loyalty to recent picks than the GM who selected those players. Moreover, Gut has already made a point of emphasizing that he expects competition (for playing time and roster spots) to be a hallmark of his regime. The notion that because a player was drafted he gets 4 years and almost unlimited opportunities to "develop" will no longer prevail. I see multiple round 1-4 picks who are still on their rookie deals being gone from the roster before game 1 of 2018.

3) Green Bay will NOT be among the youngest NFL teams in 2018. For many years, being among the youngest teams in the NFL almost seemed to be a badge of honor for some inside and outside the franchise. No more. The change began last offseason and it will only increase now that McCarthy added his voice to the many critics of the past managerial practice of relying upon so many young, untested players. I predict that when the 2018 season begins the Packers will be among the 16 OLDEST teams in the NFL. 

4) The Green Bay Packers Will Make a Trade Involving a Relevant NFL Player. That is not a misprint. I really mean it. After over a decade in the wilderness, the Packers under Gut will make a trade of or for a meaningful player (as opposed to the trades in which a nobody is dumped for a 7^th round pick that never materializes). For Packer fans old enough to remember the likes of Brett Favre, Keith Jackson, Javon Walker, and Al Harris, this renewed willingness to at least explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvement is a great development.  

5) The Opening Day Roster will feature <2 undrafted, rookie free agents (not including a possible long snapper). During the past several years, the fact that the Pack's roster featured so many undrafted rookies somehow came to be viewed as a feature not a bug. After pointed remarks by so many, including most importantly the head coach, the era of almost always filling roster holes with cheap, young undrafted players is over.

What other significant operational changes might we see this year?

I see significant changes, but not so much the ones you highlighted. I don't see 1) an offense that will change very much, unless you mean a different TE taking a significant number of snaps, or a new WR drafted. Even then, that would impact 2019 more than 2018. The offense gameplan might change a bit as well, with Philbin back to help MM out, but not that significantly.

I don't see 2) the draft picks no longer being awarded more playing  because they are Rd1-4 draft picks. I'm not sure that was ever the case., since it was up to Ted to have the final say picking the guys and it was up to MM and his coordinators to fit them in a scheme and determine when and how often they played. I cannot see TT dictating to MM who should play and when..........that doesn't fit at all with the Ted we know (or as much as we can ever know, from outside the org). Playing time could, and i think will depend (as always) on talent, progression, trust, injuries to vets, and a desire to see guys progress as they are given chances.

Your 3), may well be right, but the difference between the average age of many teams is not that huge, so the odd extra veteran (like a Peppers or an Evans) can make a difference, as can keeping a re-negotiated Nelson, or a versatile vet like Burnett who may be valuable to a new DC like Pettine. Packers were 11th youngest at 25.72yrs in 2017,  the Broncos being at the halfway point (16th) with 25.96. I'd say anything in the 25.7 (8th) to the 26.42 (25th) range fits well within the normal NFL team.

As for 4), A trade involving a relevant player, well that is a good bet. Guys like Woodson, Peppers and Evans could all be tagged as relevant and Gute has already said the Packers will explore every avenue, which many take to being at least a little more aggressive in veteran FA. I'm guessing that a vet pickup at CB or WR could fulfill that role. Recent activity in veteran FA suggests the Packers were already tiptoeing down that route.

At 5), I have no idea what the Packers roster will be starting 2018, but with the turnover of players on a team being as high as it is, rookie free agents are a vital part of fleshing out the roster. In 2017 they ranked 10th overall in roster turnover, 18.4% snaps lost (though the quality of players lost was quite high). https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-2017-number-10-1/
When you have 90 places to fill for training camp you have to have plenty of rookie free agents in camp. As long as the quality of rookie FAs acquired remains approximately the same, I see things continuing much as they are now.

The biggest differences coming, to my mind, are the coaching changes and how the defensive schemes will evolve New, quality talent at any of OLB, CB, WR and TE could also transform the team significantly.

 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

8 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Just like the previous GM, I guess some fans did indeed miss out on all the relevant trades that have been consummated by other NFL teams.

For example, here are then names of 6 relevant players participating in today's contests, who arrived via trade just this season:

Brandin Cooks (NE), Johnson Bademosi (NE), Jay Ajayi (Philly), Timmy Jernigan (Phi), Ronald Darby (Phi), and Marcel Darreus (Jax).

Oh, and NE has 7 players alone on their current roster who were acquired by trade.  

While it was just not done in GB over the past decade, lots of players have been traded throughout the NFL.

Got to love Gut's assertion that the Pack will no longer be ignoring this avenue for procuring talent.

 

1. Brandin Cooks who was traded to the Saints for a draft pick. That draft pick became Ryan Ramczyk who was a pro bowl caliber tackle as a rookie. This trade did not work out.

2. Johnson Bademosi who played 0 snaps of defense and 0 snaps of ST in their first playoff game, and barely plays for the Patriots? This trade was nothing for nothing and was most definitely not a relevant trade.

3. Jay Ajayi is playing well, but that's the definition of a back by committee. Blount, Clement, and Smallwood are all also taking carries for that team, and Ajayi was traded away due to injury concerns.

4. We're sure Timmy Jernigan isn't a JAG? This seems like the exact kind of player you would label a JAG if he were on the Packers. Traded for not much, but still doesn't seem like a guy we should be weeping about.

5. Great trade to get Darby by the Eagles.

6. Marcell Dareus is obviously a great trade if he stays out of trouble.

[MacReady]

I'm very okay with trades that involve 5th-7th round draft picks.  I'm very not okay with trades that involve 1st-4th round picks. 

There are 53 players on a team.  The majority of those 53 players should be your own draft picks taken in the first four rounds.  You literally get the best value out of getting your players from things that are LITERALLY given to you.  Every team is given 7 picks. 

[mikemike778]

3 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I'm very okay with trades that involve 5th-7th round draft picks.  I'm very not okay with trades that involve 1st-4th round picks. 

There are 53 players on a team.  The majority of those 53 players should be your own draft picks taken in the first four rounds.  You literally get the best value out of getting your players from things that are LITERALLY given to you.  Every team is given 7 picks. 

Agreed - I would probably restrict it to 6th and 7th round picks which are basically throwaway.

A big part of having a strong roster is having your own draft picks on their rookie contract. This is what gives you salary cap control and allows you to sign the free agents people want. I would always be looking to trade away 6th and 7th round picks (preferably for a pick next year in an earlier round but a relevant player is god as well) as often these guys don't make the roster anyway. 

Re the offense - if you draft defence every year, you are going to have problems down the line. We don't have any Tight Ends or Fast Receivers because most of the early drafts are mainly defence. The Line is going the same way with us needing to patch the interior. If you rarely draft Offense then any pick you do make there has to hit so when one doesn't (Spriggs) you are in trouble. 

A young roster is good - although if you are top 5 then it suggests balance isn't quite right. If I could choose, about 10th would be optimal - young but with some vets to balance it out.

Some of these points contradict themselves - the OP suggests high draft picks wont be guaranteed roster spots and less UDFA will make the side. Someone's got to make the roster so by this logic, it implies that the roster is going to be full of just free agents, trades and 6th/7th round picks. That's not the way to do it. 

Personally I don't want to see any serious shift - draft and develop is good. Trying to sign your own players is good - I'd just like to see (like most people) us sign a few free agent to plug needs. The draft isn't to plug needs and if you bank on the draft to do this you wont get the right players.

2017 wasn't a great year but without Rodgers injury, we probably would have made the playoffs and could have been in the mix for it all. The previous system worked. It worked extremely well. There's no reason to rip all your old philosophies up just build on what worked and come up with a new and improved version that's a bit more open minded and flexible.

 

[spilltray]

Literally none of these are going to happen.

[chucknorris101]

Alot of people seem to discount Philbin being back - after he left the offense was still good (likely in spite of MM's playcallings' best efforts, also, Godgers) but it wasnt the league stomper it was when Philbin was here. At least from my memory

[Arthur Penske]

20 hours ago, TheOnlyThing said:

13-year GM, he gone. Longest serving NFL DC, don’t let the door hitchya … . OC, see ya. Veteran front office personnel, enjoy Cleveland. QB/WR coaches, buh bye. DLine coach, sayonara. Head Coach/GM/$ Man, you now report to the Prez.

 

4) The Green Bay Packers Will Make a Trade Involving a Relevant NFL Player. That is not a misprint. I really mean it. After over a decade in the wilderness, the Packers under Gut will make a trade of or for a meaningful player (as opposed to the trades in which a nobody is dumped for a 7^th round pick that never materializes). For Packer fans old enough to remember the likes of Brett Favre, Keith Jackson, Javon Walker, and Al Harris, this renewed willingness to at least explore an important avenue for obtaining immediate roster improvement is a great development.  

 

Ted Thompson traded Javon and Corey Williams for 2nd rounders IIRC.

[Hands]

Everyone says that BB takes castoff players from others and makes them into a championship team. Green Bay contributed two of their defensive line guys to the Patriots in Guy through many teams since he was drafted, and RJF that they got this year from the Packers.

The point is NE moves a lot of bodies around so they can keep fresh guys in the trenches where they need it. Green Bay has to decide when to cut-off their youth movement and add vets that won't be making mental mistakes. Also have to remember that youth does get better and those vets are only going to be short term rentals. It's a fine line that BB can get away with since he has Brady.