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NFC top contenders 2018 and beyond


squire12

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Watching this NFC Championship game got me thinking about the top contenders in the NFC for 2018....in addition to GB

NFC East

PHI -- QB on rookie contract, lots of talent at key positions.  They are over the cap for 2018 and will need to shed some $$, but they do have some options to do so.  Likely will be a contender for the next few years with Wentz on a rookie deal (+ the 5th year option)

MIN -- Huge question at QB, but they do have $60M in cap space with the QB position being the only key player.  McKinnon is replaceable with Cook coming back from injury.   They should be good next year, but in 2019, have some players due for some pay raises (Barr, Kendricks, Hunte, Diggs)

LAR --  similar to PHI with a QB on a Rookie deal.  They have several FA (Trumaine Johnson, Watkins, Barwin, Joyner, Robey-Coleman) that are key contributors with $45M in cap space.  Should be able to retain most of them.   Likely to be in the hunt for a few years with Goff on his rookie deal

NO -- Brees is a FA, they have $35M in cap space, so they can likely re-sign him.

CAR -- $15M in cap space and a few FA in the trenches (Lotulelei, Norwell).   Not really worried about a Cam Newton led team overall.  

ATL -- $10M in cap space with several key FA (Poe, Clayborn, Upshaw, Gabriel).   There offense will be a force, but it certainly did take a step back with the departure of Shanahan from 2016.  Ryan is a FA after 2018, so that is really going to take a big part of any salary cap space they might have in 2019....other 2019 FA Jake Matthews, Tevin Coleman, Levitre, Grady Jarrett.   There window is 2018

SEA -- $14M in cap space and a pretty big group of FA (Graham, Sheldon Richardson, Paul Richardson, Aboushi, Maxwell) in addition to some potential big injuries to Chancellor and Sherman.   Could get some cap space back if either need to retire.  But they have some big holes to fill on the OL.  

DAL -- $20M in cap space that Demarcus Lawrence could see most of.  They need to hit on things soon with Dak on his rookie deal for 2 more years and Elliott for 3 more (including the 5th year option).  

The rest are likely a few years away outside of some big FA and draft class hits. 

I see the PHI and LAR as the biggest contenders for the next few years with those QB's being on rookie deals for the next 2 years (+ the 5th year option). 

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Seattle isn't really a threat to us anymore.  Especially now that their pass defense is falling apart.  Carolina is still a coin toss I feel like.  The Saints will be a challenge for one more year.  The Rams I don't think are a challenge now that Capers isn't our DC anymore.  I like us against the Vikings for the next five years.  Especially in the playoffs.  Eagles are a legitimate threat depending on how well Wentz will play against Pettine's defense.  Dallas is becoming less and less a threat with every successful time we beat them.  The biggest threat to us winning a Super Bowl is still Atlanta, unless our defense is radically different.  They just have our number. 

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7 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Seattle isn't really a threat to us anymore.  Especially now that their pass defense is falling apart.  Carolina is still a coin toss I feel like.  The Saints will be a challenge for one more year.  The Rams I don't think are a challenge now that Capers isn't our DC anymore.  I like us against the Vikings for the next five years.  Especially in the playoffs.  Eagles are a legitimate threat depending on how well Wentz will play against Pettine's defense.  Dallas is becoming less and less a threat with every successful time we beat them.  The biggest threat to us winning a Super Bowl is still Atlanta, unless our defense is radically different.  They just have our number. 

I agree that SEA is likely on the downside. 

I think the Rams will be around for the next few years.   Goff made some big strides, whether he can continue it is a question.  

Totally forgot about ATL.   Will add them to the OP.  

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1 hour ago, squire12 said:

Watching this NFC Championship game got me thinking about the top contenders in the NFC for 2018....in addition to GB

NFC East

PHI -- QB on rookie contract, lots of talent at key positions.  They are over the cap for 2018 and will need to shed some $$, but they do have some options to do so.  Likely will be a contender for the next few years with Wentz on a rookie deal (+ the 5th year option)

MIN -- Huge question at QB, but they do have $60M in cap space with the QB position being the only key player.  McKinnon is replaceable with Cook coming back from injury.   They should be good next year, but in 2019, have some players due for some pay raises (Barr, Kendricks, Hunte, Diggs)

LAR --  similar to PHI with a QB on a Rookie deal.  They have several FA (Trumaine Johnson, Watkins, Barwin, Joyner, Robey-Coleman) that are key contributors with $45M in cap space.  Should be able to retain most of them.   Likely to be in the hunt for a few years with Goff on his rookie deal

NO -- Brees is a FA, they have $35M in cap space, so they can likely re-sign him.

CAR -- $15M in cap space and a few FA in the trenches (Lotulelei, Norwell).   Not really worried about a Cam Newton led team overall.  

ATL -- $10M in cap space with several key FA (Poe, Clayborn, Upshaw, Gabriel).   There offense will be a force, but it certainly did take a step back with the departure of Shanahan from 2016.  Ryan is a FA after 2018, so that is really going to take a big part of any salary cap space they might have in 2019....other 2019 FA Jake Matthews, Tevin Coleman, Levitre, Grady Jarrett.   There window is 2018

SEA -- $14M in cap space and a pretty big group of FA (Graham, Sheldon Richardson, Paul Richardson, Aboushi, Maxwell) in addition to some potential big injuries to Chancellor and Sherman.   Could get some cap space back if either need to retire.  But they have some big holes to fill on the OL.  

DAL -- $20M in cap space that Demarcus Lawrence could see most of.  They need to hit on things soon with Dak on his rookie deal for 2 more years and Elliott for 3 more (including the 5th year option).  

The rest are likely a few years away outside of some big FA and draft class hits. 

I see the PHI and LAR as the biggest contenders for the next few years with those QB's being on rookie deals for the next 2 years (+ the 5th year option). 

All of this just tells me the NFC is going to be loaded next year and years to come. Packers better load up.

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3 minutes ago, cannondale said:

The good news is it's all on us IMO. 

Our staff should have no delusions about what we are up against, exactly where we are, and exactly what we need to fix. Hopefully we can point to this past season as a turning point

Agree.   Having Rodgers is just not enough.  Several position groups need a boost in impact players.  Hopefully a new DC will help some of the players already on the roster.

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I'm worried about our cap situation, I don't know how aggressive we can be in FA. It's scary how much cap space the Vikings have with a good drafting GM and roster talent. I know they laid an egg but they still have more talent than us and they will be better next year with cook and upgraded D after FA and draft.

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6 minutes ago, St Vince said:

I'm worried about our cap situation, I don't know how aggressive we can be in FA. It's scary how much cap space the Vikings have with a good drafting GM and roster talent. I know they laid an egg but they still have more talent than us and they will be better next year with cook and upgraded D after FA and draft.

Yeah it sounds like GB is looking at locking up Rodgers to another extension this offseason so IDK how much they'll have to spend on outside FA

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12 minutes ago, St Vince said:

I'm worried about our cap situation, I don't know how aggressive we can be in FA. It's scary how much cap space the Vikings have with a good drafting GM and roster talent. I know they laid an egg but they still have more talent than us and they will be better next year with cook and upgraded D after FA and draft.

Matthews, Jordy and Cobb account for 36 million or so. The rest of it you don't worry about. Take care of business on draft day and go from there.

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4 minutes ago, deltarich87 said:

Yeah it sounds like GB is looking at locking up Rodgers to another extension this offseason so IDK how much they'll have to spend on outside FA

How much you think that will be?  

Rodgers has $20.5M coming in 2018 and $21.1M coming in 2019.  

Is something like $120M over 5 years with $60M in SB and other guarantees for the first 3 years (total guaranteed of $80M)

CAP HITS

2018= $13M

2019=$20M

2020=$24M

2021=$30M

2022 = $33M

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I like our chances next year. We should be able to add an impact defender or 2 and getting AR back. I mean;

 

1.we probably would have beat NO and Pitt with AR

2. We would have beat Carolina with a healthy AR

3. we'd have taken a game from MN (we would have won the 16-0 game)

 

That puts us at 10-6, then who knows how the team would have played against Det with playoff hope.

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