Positional Analysis: WR

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Based on their career numbers [catch %, YPC, TDs/catch] and based on 124 targets, which is the most of a WR in the Reid era in KC the following free agent/recently re-signed WRs would produce

Landry, 88 catches, 889 yards, 5 TDs

Davante Adams, 73 catches, 870 yards, 8 TDs

Allen Robinson, 65.7 catches, 926 yards, 7 TDs 

Sammy Watkins, 55.7 catches, 885 yards, 7 TDs

They don’t play the same position though. Landry plays like 80% of his snaps in the slot getting targeted on almost exclusively drags and slants. High percentage throws. The other three are all boundary players. What Landry does well can be done comparably well by guys like Kendall Wright and Albert Wilson. There are far fewer guys who can play outside with consistent success. It’s relative value. It’s no different than the Nelson argument. Landry might be really as a slot WR but it’s the most easily replaceable WR position. 

We’re talking in circles. I won’t be thrilled with Landry at the expected cost but I get it. Ultimately it’s not my call anyway. 

[WindyCity]

1. Sign Jarvis Landry [5/67.5], Sign Brice Butler [3/9], Draft Someone in the 4th round

Landry give the Bears a productive veteran they can lean on while younger players [Shaheen, 4th round pick, Cohen] develop and while Meredith gets back to form. Give Trubisky someone he can lean on and has remarkable consistency and health. Butler gives them a big, fast guy that can threaten downfield and who is looking for a chance to start.

2. Sign Albert Wilson [4/28], Trade for Emmanueal Sanders [2019 5th], Draft in the 2nd round [Moore, Miller, Washington]

Wilson gives the Bears some speed and play making in the slot and Sanders gives them some dependable speed on the outside that at a minimum will run good routes and help out a young QB. The 2nd round pick would be the long term replacement for Sanders and gets some time to develop in 2018.

3. Sign Albert Wilson [4/28], Sign Paul Richardson [4/32], Draft in the 2nd round

Again Wilson gives the Bears someone that can produce in the slot, Richardson gives the Bears some outside speed with upside, but more risk. The 2nd round pick would be worked in and give the Bears serious depth and someone in case Richardson regresses or gets injured.

It has all gone sideways, free agency has blown up in our face and we are desperately in need of something

4. Re-sign Kendall Wright, Sign Brice Butler [3/9], Draft someone in the 2nd and 4th round

If things go like they did in 2017 and we get rejected by guys and Wilson goes back to KC and Sanders goes to Miami, then we need to bring back Wright he had a connection with Trubisky. Get a veteran to start on the outside in Butler and hoped that one of 2 draft picks can play sooner rather than later.

[WindyCity]

I stole this from another site

When the game is on the line and on money downs, teams will double team Landry.

Safety over the top of Landry, leaving trips to the right all 1 on 1.

Again, safety and CB bracket Landry, leaving all wideouts 1 on 1.

[AZBearsFan]

37 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

1. Sign Jarvis Landry [5/67.5], Sign Brice Butler [3/9], Draft Someone in the 4th round

Landry give the Bears a productive veteran they can lean on while younger players [Shaheen, 4th round pick, Cohen] develop and while Meredith gets back to form. Give Trubisky someone he can lean on and has remarkable consistency and health. Butler gives them a big, fast guy that can threaten downfield and who is looking for a chance to start.

2. Sign Albert Wilson [4/28], Trade for Emmanueal Sanders [2019 5th], Draft in the 2nd round [Moore, Miller, Washington]

Wilson gives the Bears some speed and play making in the slot and Sanders gives them some dependable speed on the outside that at a minimum will run good routes and help out a young QB. The 2nd round pick would be the long term replacement for Sanders and gets some time to develop in 2018.

3. Sign Albert Wilson [4/28], Sign Paul Richardson [4/32], Draft in the 2nd round

Again Wilson gives the Bears someone that can produce in the slot, Richardson gives the Bears some outside speed with upside, but more risk. The 2nd round pick would be worked in and give the Bears serious depth and someone in case Richardson regresses or gets injured.

It has all gone sideways, free agency has blown up in our face and we are desperately in need of something

4. Re-sign Kendall Wright, Sign Brice Butler [3/9], Draft someone in the 2nd and 4th round

If things go like they did in 2017 and we get rejected by guys and Wilson goes back to KC and Sanders goes to Miami, then we need to bring back Wright he had a connection with Trubisky. Get a veteran to start on the outside in Butler and hoped that one of 2 draft picks can play sooner rather than later.

Now we’re giving Wilson $7M per??!?! 

[WindyCity]

21 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Now we’re giving Wilson $7M per??!?! 

There is going to be a lot of interest and the Chiefs will have the cash to offer 5-6 no problem. Based on the buzz he will have a strong market.

I think he will be around 7 million. Ben Allbright said a “big offer” would be made to Wilson.

My guess is he will comp out closer to Robert Woods thank Markus Wheaton coming off IR.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

There is going to be a lot of interest and the Chiefs will have the cash to offer 5-6 no problem. Based on the buzz he will have a strong market.

I think he will be around 7 million. Ben Allbright said a “big offer” would be made to Wilson.

My guess is he will comp out closer to Robert Woods thank Markus Wheaton coming off IR.

A week ago you said that we justifying giving him 4/20 specifically because the Chiefs couldn’t afford that. Now they can? And because they can (and always could since they were always cutting Hali, trading Smith and probably cutting Johnson) now Wilson has become a bidding war player? Jesus. If that’s the case I’m gonna have to seriously re-think going Ridley at 8 and maybe WR again in round 2, and then just going heavy in FA at all the other need positions. 

[blkwdw13]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

A week ago you said that we justifying giving him 4/20 specifically because the Chiefs couldn’t afford that. Now they can? And because they can (and always could since they were always cutting Hali, trading Smith and probably cutting Johnson) now Wilson has become a bidding war player? Jesus. If that’s the case I’m gonna have to seriously re-think going Ridley at 8 and maybe WR again in round 2, and then just going heavy in FA at all the other need positions. 

It’s the windy over react of the week. 

[G08]

I read an article dudes that detailed that, on the whole, most NFL teams will have 4 primary targets in the passing game. As it stands right now:

Tarik Cohen

Adam Shaheen

 

Kevin White is still here, probably not to be relied upon, and I'm assuming Cameron Meredith will be back.

 

1. Cameron Meredith

2. Adam Shaheen

3. Tarik Cohen

4. Kevin White

 

If we bring in Landry, who gets dropped? White? Landry does a ton of his work from the slot, where would Cohen go -- on the outside and just run 9 routes?

[G08]

For the reasons above, I'd rather go after Wilson (including not being a head-case and being cheaper). Then there's this:

And as it turns out … After playing on around just 53 percent of offensive snaps in his first eight games of the 2017 season, Wilson used on 91.3 percent of the offense’s plays during Nagy’s play-calling debut. And that started a four-week run in which Wilson played on at least 86 percent of the Chiefs’ plays.

[WindyCity]

1. Cameron Meredith, injured

2. Adam Shaheen, unproven

3. Tarik Cohen, unproven

4. Kevin White, please stop with that

 

If you signed Landry drop any of they above out. None of these guys are close to the production and the consistency. If you are dividing 400 targets up between those guys then you are asking for a disaster.

[WindyCity]

It’s the windy over react of the week. 

Thank you for your contribution. It is actually me reacting to the information that has come out in the last week or so.

Such as

-Schefter on the radio in KC saying that KC was going to make a big push to not let Wilson hit free agency

-It coming out that the Chiefs are also looking at releasing Dee Ford and Derrick Johnson to have the cap space to keep Wilson. With just Smith and Hali they would not have had the space.

-Ben Allbright tweeting that the Bears could/would make a big offer to make sure that he leaves KC.

So what looked like a real possibility of adding Wilson, now looks way more competitive, with competition comes an increase in price tag.

[WindyCity]

And as it turns out … After playing on around just 53 percent of offensive snaps in his first eight games of the 2017 season, Wilson used on 91.3 percent of the offense’s plays during Nagy’s play-calling debut. And that started a four-week run in which Wilson played on at least 86 percent of the Chiefs’ plays.

Under Nagy they went 3 WRs pretty much the entire game and had a marked increase in the usage of the slot WR.

This is part of the reason I think Landry or Wilson will be on the Bears. Based on what we have seen from Nagy it is a key position to his play calling.

[G08]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

1. Cameron Meredith, injured

2. Adam Shaheen, unproven

3. Tarik Cohen, unproven

4. Kevin White, please stop with that

 

If you signed Landry drop any of they above out. None of these guys are close to the production and the consistency. If you are dividing 400 targets up between those guys then you are asking for a disaster.

None of that matters because you're not being realistic, man.

Cohen and Shaheen will have big roles in this offense. You can mark that down.

 

Meredith... I personally feel he's going to be featured, but I have nothing to base that on other than my gut.

White... they won't rely on him but I can bet you dollars to donuts that he's going to be given every opportunity to shine/excel.

[WindyCity]

I know that Shaheen and Cohen will have big roles, but they are unproven and it is not like Shaheen is going to get 100 targets and go 65, 900, 8 TDs. He is going to have as many downs as ups because he barely played last season.

We need someone reliable from both a health and production stand point. No one on the list is reliable.

By adding at least 1 reliable target the Bears can have someone for Trubisky to lean on while Shaheen and Cohen develop and Meredith knocks the rust. It is hard to develop a young QB when you are developing everyone around him.

[WindyCity]

It does not need to be Landry.

It can be Wilson, Lee or Sanders, but we need at least 2 guys that Trubisky can lean on to get open and produce. We need a couple of veteran starters at either WR or as the 2nd TE. We have no idea with what Shaheen is going to be able to give them at a minimum he is looking at 3x the number of targets which is a massive leap.

But right now we have nothing but question marks.