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Positional Analysis: WR


WindyCity

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4 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

It does not need to be Landry.

It can be Wilson, Lee or Sanders, but we need at least 2 guys that Trubisky can lean on to get open and produce. We need a couple of veteran starters at either WR or as the 2nd TE. We have no idea with what Shaheen is going to be able to give them at a minimum he is looking at 3x the number of targets which is a massive leap.

But right now we have nothing but question marks.

I don't really agree here... I don't think the goal is the Super Bowl next season. We need to develop this offense around Trubisky, and that is done through reps reps reps with the same players. Develop your young guys and don't lose touches/looks to the Sanders of the world. 

I keep going back and forth on Landry... he makes sense from a young/talented standpoint, but I'll maintain that he's a headcase and that slot WRs should never be paid like top 5-8 WRs. I'd rather give those targets to Wilson.

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12 minutes ago, G08 said:

I don't really agree here... I don't think the goal is the Super Bowl next season. We need to develop this offense around Trubisky, and that is done through reps reps reps with the same players. Develop your young guys and don't lose touches/looks to the Sanders of the world. 

I keep going back and forth on Landry... he makes sense from a young/talented standpoint, but I'll maintain that he's a headcase and that slot WRs should never be paid like top 5-8 WRs. I'd rather give those targets to Wilson.

Developing Trubisky and all the young offensive guys at the same time may not be possible. You may have to make a choice to develop Trubisky at the detriment of younger offensive players across the board. Other teams have got veteran heavy to get their young QBs to take a step. Hard to ask Trubisky to drop back and look at 3 different guys who may have blown their routes or the timing.

I like Wilson, I think that his price tag is going to be better, but you are also taking on more risk.

-Never had more than 60 targets, he will get way more here.

-Has never operated as a top 3 weapon on offense, which he would be here. Landry has drawn the most attention on offense and still produced. The Patriots game above he was double team a huge portion of the game. I doubt Wilson has ever worked against a double team because of Hill and Kelce.

Wilson would be in a different role than he has ever been, he may thrive, but he may also struggle.

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2 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Developing Trubisky and all the young offensive guys at the same time may not be possible. You may have to make a choice to develop Trubisky at the detriment of younger offensive players across the board. Other teams have got veteran heavy to get their young QBs to take a step. Hard to ask Trubisky to drop back and look at 3 different guys who may have blown their routes or the timing.

I like Wilson, I think that his price tag is going to be better, but you are also taking on more risk.

-Never had more than 60 targets, he will get way more here.

-Has never operated as a top 3 weapon on offense, which he would be here. Landry has drawn the most attention on offense and still produced. The Patriots game above he was double team a huge portion of the game. I doubt Wilson has ever worked against a double team because of Hill and Kelce.

Wilson would be in a different role than he has ever been, he may thrive, but he may also struggle.

He had 1 less target than Kareem Hunt, which would have made him a top 3 weapon in the passing game. Dude's 25 years old and Nagy knows him -- Pace puts stock in that when a coach has experience with a player and positive reviews (I am assuming Nagy likes him just fine).

I'm just saying... don't be surprised if Landry's demands are outrageous and we "settle" on Wilson. He spent 31.4% of the time in the slot, meaning the remaining 34.1% of the time he was on the outside (which will allow Meredith to still get reps in the slot).

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14 minutes ago, G08 said:

He had 1 less target than Kareem Hunt, which would have made him a top 3 weapon in the passing game. Dude's 25 years old and Nagy knows him -- Pace puts stock in that when a coach has experience with a player and positive reviews (I am assuming Nagy likes him just fine).

I'm just saying... don't be surprised if Landry's demands are outrageous and we "settle" on Wilson. He spent 31.4% of the time in the slot, meaning the remaining 34.1% of the time he was on the outside (which will allow Meredith to still get reps in the slot).

I would not be shocked if we added Wilson. I think that we will go after Landry and cycle back to Wilson if Landry gets crazy, but we need Wilson to make it to the market.

In 2018, Wilson could very well lead the Bears in targets, depending on Meredith's health, and that would be a new role for him.

 

I think we need to add 2 pass catches at a minimum. 

1. A starting WR that has some semblance of consistency in their career. For me in order Landry, Wilson, Sanders, Lee.

2. A veteran TE that can slot in at #2 and give us a safety net if Shaheen does not take off right away in an expanded role. Preferably someone who can be used in the passing game, Zach Miller would have been perfect, but obviously that is not happening.

A couple guys that we can turn to if the youth movement stalls or is not providing Trubisky the support he needs.

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It'll boil down to what Nagy/Helfrich thinks about Sims... my move would be to sign Wilson and go after Tre Burton as our move TE.

Any player that got hit like Cam did in the pre-season tears ligaments in their knee so I'm not willing to call him unreliable. For his size he really is a quick/smooth route runner. I think he can have a big season if he's featured in this offense.

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I do not think Meredith is unreliable, I think the first couple weeks back from an ACL makes him unreliable. I am counting on him for 100 targets by the end of the season, but with guys who rely on their legs we have to see him run before I can trust him.

Burton would be a nice add as a veteran TE that can take on some of the burden. I do not even know if we need to spend that money, he is currently projected at 7 million/season.

Ed Dickson played for Helfrich and is coming off a 400 yard season in Carolina. He probably runs you 3-4 million on a 1-2 year deal and at least gives you a break in case of emergency veteran.

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If we added Wilson, Burton and a 2nd round pick WR I would be pretty happy. I know that Burton has not been used a ton, but he still has 4 years with a couple of really good offensive coaches to develop.

Fox really screwed us with Shaheen. He should have been getting 4-5 targets a game after the Packers essentially ended our season. We would have a much better idea of what he is.

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But the cap should not really effect the level of player they get.

1. This is a critical year for Trubisky and we shouldn't pinch pennies.

2. In 2019 the Bears will have 135 million in cap space without a large jump in the cap. They can put a ton of money there without really hurting themselves. They should also use it to extend Amos, Goldman, Whitehair and Howard depending on health.

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I'd rather let Pace spend his money on our current draft picks that he wants to keep/extend, honestly.

Landry just bugs me... @AZBearsFan broke it down beautifully so I'm not going to dig back into it, but only add that the dude is an unstable player. 8 unsportsmanlike conduct flags in 3 seasons; you pay him that kind of $$$ and Juice will literally feel like he has more juice. What happens when Trubisky doesn't throw at him 9 times a game? Why do we want to bring that in here at what is expected to be an exorbitant cost? If I was going up against him I'd make sure I was under his skin the entire game because I'm pretty confident he'll blow this top at the most inopportune time for his team.

Wilson has experience in this offense, he's ascending, and Nagy can tell Pace everything he needs to know about the kid -- and it will be for cheaper than Jarvis Landry. That's my move, honestly.

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Pace seems to me to have a volume philosophy.  He likes to throw a lot of darts at a position problem all at once and hope someone emerges and maybe he strikes gold with a high upside guy.  Let's him theoretically overcome injuries too.

Unfortunately, he got really unlucky with the myriad injuries to WR last year and the theory failed.  Team could not overcome them.  I don't think he changed his philosophy on it though.  

He won't typically go for top free agent at a position.  I think he looks for athletic ability and potential over proven past production with bias to resign guys he's already picked or had.  I think Pace believes, as do I, that 2017 offensive woe's didn't follow conventional wisdom that all our receivers were terrible or lacked potential.  So look for some familiar faces to return.

My best guess is as follows assuming price is right:  

Contract players:  White and Gentry will be on training camp roster for sure.  I think White may get cut from 53 unless he pulls a Fuller and turns everything around in his contract year, to me he has to show early.  Not sure if they are going to let him play it out or not.  Gentry I think makes team or practice squad even though he didn't play well last year in season when he had his opportunities.  I think he showed a lot of athletic potential and ability in training camp and is worth keeping around based on that.  Doesn't hurt that he is a fan favorite.

Bellamy and Wheaton should be gone.  

FA's: Meredith (looked to be ready for breakout year before injury, but injury was nasty, still think Pace will bring him back as he was his find and Pace isn't going to let him go somewhere else yet).  Inman and Kendall Wright both played fairly well in stretches given the overall circumstances of Bears 2017 offense.  Should be able to get all three at a reasonable price.   All 3 are decent and capable NFL WR's IMO if healthy and have a full offseason and training camp with their QB.  

I think Pace will maybe sign one of following depending on their market price and health exam:

1: Allen Robinson.  Played poorly of late which should knock some $'s off, and coming off torn ACL but was looking all world early in his career.  Not sure what happened to him lately.  Maybe a new scene will bring him back.  He has only ever played with bad quarterbacks in both college and pros and (used to) make them look real good.  That Penn State QB that got drafted owes him a dinner for sure.  Only 24 which is his biggest selling point, to be only 24 and already have had a stellar NFL season is a pretty big selling point to me.  Alabama WR Ridley is also 24 for context.  Who would you rather have throwing contract out of it?  Give me Robinson.  Negatives: probably will be prohibitively expensive.  May not want yet another WR coming off an ACL.  

2: Terrell Pryor.  I include him here just because after his poor showing in DC, he will probably be available for a song so it's easy now to take a flyer on him and bring him to camp. He still is an incredible huge, fast athlete.  Probably a long shot for Bears at 29.  I would do it.  I doubt Bears will.   This is more me than Pace.

3: Sammy Watkins.  Never lived up to his hype or ability.  I include him due to his age 25 and his athletic ability.  Still worth it if price is right.  It would be stupid to overpay for this guy, but smart to get him for right price.  He's still a guy defense has to think about.  

4: Paul Richardson: Another big potential guy that never lived up to that potential.  I include him because he fits theme of young and super athletic.  Everybody on this list is a young super athlete (Pryor isn't young anymore, but is a super athlete).  Worth it if price is right.  

More WR's will be in camp.  Too many to mention or speculate on.

Note:  Josh Gordon would interest me, but I think not Pace due to background.  Wouldn't be shocked if he went to Patriots.  Landry is a fine possession player and competitor, but doesn't really fit Bears I think, especially not as top 2018 WR free agent and price that will entail.  Lee I don't think is that good.  Most of other guys are older or have other flaws that would keep Bears from pursuing them.

Draft:

I doubt Bears take a WR at 8.  I think the feeling from most of Bears board and probably scouts as well is that no WR in this draft worthy of that 8th pick.  So Bears will take a player they rate at 8 or trade down.  Some WR from 2018 draft will play very well, but it's not obvious who.  A lot of time it is the QB and team that makes the WR and not vis a versa.  If you gave the Bears the Patriot WR's in 2017 the Bears still would have still been terrible.  So it is my belief that Bears will trade down or take a WR with a later pick.  

I'm thinking Bears take a WR in 2nd and another in later rounds or UDFA.  Hard to say who they take because so many guys in same bracket.  I haven't really looked at a lot of the college guys yet.  I am thinking they may target Christian Kirk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, G08 said:

I'd rather let Pace spend his money on our current draft picks that he wants to keep/extend, honestly.

Landry just bugs me... @AZBearsFan broke it down beautifully so I'm not going to dig back into it, but only add that the dude is an unstable player. 8 unsportsmanlike conduct flags in 3 seasons; you pay him that kind of $$$ and Juice will literally feel like he has more juice. What happens when Trubisky doesn't throw at him 9 times a game? Why do we want to bring that in here at what is expected to be an exorbitant cost? If I was going up against him I'd make sure I was under his skin the entire game because I'm pretty confident he'll blow this top at the most inopportune time for his team.

Wilson has experience in this offense, he's ascending, and Nagy can tell Pace everything he needs to know about the kid -- and it will be for cheaper than Jarvis Landry. That's my move, honestly.

By all accounts he has not had issues with TO like behaviour and the Dolphins are trying to bring him back so that should lessen your concerns.

All of his unsportsmanlike conduct penalties this season came from the same incident with the Bills.

Akiem Hicks has 6 unneccassery roughness penalties in 2 seasons.

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