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Positional Analysis: WR


WindyCity

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Landry did not call the plays or throw the ball.

The Dolphins over reliance on Landry is not a knock on him, he is just running the route that is called and catching the ball.

We just went after 2nd tier guys who we projected into bigger roles and we got

Mike Glennon

Marcus Cooper

Markus Wheaton

Dion Sims

Quenton Demps

 

I am surprised at how quickly people want to jump into the 2nd tier/projection market and how much faith people have in Pace not to screw it up again.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Landry did not call the plays or throw the ball.

The Dolphins over reliance on Landry is not a knock on him, he is just running the route that is called and catching the ball.

We just went after 2nd tier guys who we projected into bigger roles and we got

Mike Glennon

Marcus Cooper

Markus Wheaton

Dion Sims

Quenton Demps

 

I am surprised at how quickly people want to jump into the 2nd tier/projection market and how much faith people have in Pace not to screw it up again.

Saying Pace screwed everything up in 2017 is a bunch of crap Windy. Nobody’s saying there weren’t misses there but the broad stroke blame game is a tired one. 

We offered AJ Bouye the most money (per Bouye) and he chose to go to Jacksonville because they were closer - and seeing as how they ended up in the AFCCG he was 100% right on that. We targeted Gilmore and he got top money for the perennial contender of all perennial contenders. You can’t hold that against Pace. Cooper wasn’t even our top CB add in FA - that was Amukamara. Context matters. 

Demps broke his arm in week 3 and missed the rest of the year. In the four years before 2017 he had missed 3 games total. Can’t blame that on Pace either. Dude breaking his arm making a tackle isn’t foreseeable and he didn’t have a history of being a guy who gets hurt. His injury is also the only reason we got to see the emergence of Adrian Amos in 2017. 

Glennon is a dead horse. Bad signing. Bad money. It’s a miss. But Pace also drafted a QB 2nd overall which makes that miss less harmful. Money wasn’t the reason we lost out on anyone in FA last year so getting hung up on the Glennon cash is dumb. 

Wheaton disappointed for sure, but again context. He was always expected to be a role player as a 3/4 behind Meredith and White, both of whom were gone by week 2. He was also effectively replaced by Wright. He invested in 2 lower tier players to fill WR3 and WR4 roles and hit once. That’s pretty average. The Wheaton miss is FAR less an impact without losing our projected 1 and 2 for the entire season. If he’s an ineffective 4 then it’s bad money but also short money and far less relevant. I can only assume you’re not blaming Pace for him needing to have his appendix removed. 

Sims is meh. He’s a decent blocker but underwhelmed as a receiver for sure. You could also contend that Sims’ shortcomings would have been further mitigated had Loggains actually used Shaheen, but if it’s your desire to ignore that then so be it. 

Pace wasn’t great in FA but c’mon with the he screwed everything up stuff. You’re smarter than that. He had ups and downs in FA just like any other GM. 

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I am not talking about missing on top targets. It is part of the reason I think he is going to go after Landry.

This is not meant to be a blame Pace exercise.

This is pointing out that we have just gone through a season where most of our 2nd tier free agent signings flamed out and added little to nothing to the team. We have sat and watched first hand what happens when guys do not take the step you need/pay them to take.

I am just surprised that people are so willing to do that again with a position that has a huge impact on Trubisky's development.

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Going into free agency I think the Bears need to be far more aware and concerned with the floor of a player. Specifically if that player is directly involved in the development of Trubisky.

I think Wilson and Landry probably have similar ceilings based on what we have seen from both.

I think they have very different floors. We have seen that Landry has a pretty safe and productive floor, we do not know what Wilson will look like with a similar spot light on him.

 

I am willing to pay for the floor to be high in this critical season. I am willing to pay to ensure that the WR I add does not go Markus Wheaton and flame out, or go Dion Sims and prove that they are nothing more than a rotational backup.

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My Free Agent WR Rankings

Tier 1

  1. Allen Robinson, the health scares me a ton but he is as close to a true #1 that may hit the market
  2. Jarvis Landry, durable, productive, and a reliable target for the offense to lean on while others develop
  3. Sammy Watkins, love the skill set, but has missed time and never really been super productive
  4. Albert Wilson, love the scheme fit and the burst he has a little concerned about what happens with more spot light
  5. Emmanuel Sanders, consistent veteran who has some speed and will be where you need him to be

Tier 2

  1. Marquise Lee, has some consistent production and health, which is more than others on this list
  2. Josh Gordon, this is a grand slam swing
  3. Paul Richardson, injuries and only 1 year of production that was somewhat inconsistent
  4. Donte Moncreif, has the speed and some production but injuries are big for him
  5. Brice Butler, big and with speed, but has never really been more than a 4th option
  6. John Brown, has the speed but is 2 injury filled years from being productive.
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Before we look at this year’s free agent class, a word on Cameron Meredith, who said this on locker cleanout day Jan. 1: “Training camp for sure I’ll be back. Right now it’s staying on pace so that I can do that. Yes, full recovery.”

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I do not doubt that Cam thinks he will be back for training camp, I do not doubt the doctors think he will be back.

That is no guarantee of effective return from injury. Look at Kyle Long he never even got close to being 100% on his ankle.

I also think Meredith should be considered a reliable target for Trubisky and he will be a significant part of the offense. That being said week 1 of the season he cannot be the only consistent target on the field, the health concerns alone should make that true.

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6 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

That is no guarantee of effective return from injury. Look at Kyle Long he never even got close to being 100% on his ankle

Again, two entirely different things. Long destroyed his ankle and had an awful reaction to the anesthesia. It also happened much later in the season -- Cam tore his knee in the pre-season.

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As I said I expect Cam will be ready to go week 1 of the season.

But coming off an injury we do not know what he is going to be. I think he will be fine, but we do not know.

Even if he is 100% healthy I do not think that removes us from needing to add someone who can consistently be relied on week 1 of the season. Even more so because we know that Shaheen is going to be a big part of the offense, but we have really no idea what he is capable of because of Fox refusing to play him.

I think any of the guys listed in my top 5 would be guys we could lean on along with Meredith to carry us till the offense gets going, Shaheen really gets established or a draft pick is ready to contribute.

I would be wary of leaning on Lee, drops and never really been the offensive focus, or a guy like Richardson who has health concerns and really has been inconsistent and inefficient in his career.

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I think we can live with

Meredith, Inman/Draft Pick, Landry

or

Meredith, Inman/Draft Pick, Wilson

or

Meredith, Sanders, Wright/Draft Pick

I think a WR unit like below exposes us to a lot of early season concerns

Meredith, Lee, Wright/Draft Pick

Meredith, Richardson, Wright/Draft Pick

 

I think we can expect more from Landry, Wilson, or Sanders than the guys I have listed in tier 2. Paul Richardson as our biggest WR add would scare me a little as much as the speed would excite me.

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I'm kind of coming around on:

1. Meredith

2. Wilson (let's not forget he was the #2 targeted WR on the Chiefs last year; there's no reason he can't do the exact same thing here)

3. Rookie (I'm good with James Washington, Christian Kirk, DJ Moore, and don't sleep on Dante Pettis)

4. White

5. Inman

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2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

My Free Agent WR Rankings

Tier 1

  1. Allen Robinson, the health scares me a ton but he is as close to a true #1 that may hit the market Won't hit market
  2. Jarvis Landry, durable, productive, and a reliable target for the offense to lean on while others develop Likely to hit FA/Off-field risks/Fall back Option
  3. Sammy Watkins, love the skill set, but has missed time and never really been super productive Won't hit market
  4. Albert Wilson, love the scheme fit and the burst he has a little concerned about what happens with more spot light Likely to hit FA/Knows system/Top FA target
  5. Emmanuel Sanders, consistent veteran who has some speed and will be where you need him to be Likely to hit FA/Good fall back option

Tier 2

  1. Marquise Lee, has some consistent production and health, which is more than others on this list Likely to hit FA/Drops Issue/Fall back option
  2. Josh Gordon, this is a grand slam swing Unlikely to hit market/Off-field risks
  3. Paul Richardson, injuries and only 1 year of production that was somewhat inconsistent Likely to hit FA/Top FA target
  4. Donte Moncreif, has the speed and some production but injuries are big for him Likely to hit FA/Health Issues/Fall back option
  5. Brice Butler, big and with speed, but has never really been more than a 4th option Likely to hit FA/Upside/Good fall back option
  6. John Brown, has the speed but is 2 injury filled years from being productive. Likely to hit FA/Health Issues/Fall back option

The way I see it ^^^^

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I'm kind of coming around on:

1. Meredith

2. Wilson (let's not forget he was the #2 targeted WR on the Chiefs last year; there's no reason he can't do the exact same thing here)

3. Rookie (I'm good with James Washington, Christian Kirk, DJ Moore, and don't sleep on Dante Pettis)

4. White

5. Inman

 

That would be a very thin unit and you would be relying on a rookie to fill a pretty serious role in the offense.

You would pretty much have to take a WR in the 2nd round, which I am not opposed to, but waiting to the 4th round for someone you expect to play is a risk. I think they will add at least 2 veteran WRs so they have more draft flexibility.

Meredith

Lee or Richardson

Wilson

Rookie

Inman

White

 

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