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WindyCity

Positional Analysis: WR

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7 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I wouldn't hate it but I think Tarik Cohen is already a better version of Austin and already provides everything and more that Austin would bring to this offense.

I think Austin would steal touches from Cohen. Austin has never really developed as a WR.

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23 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I think Austin would steal touches from Cohen. Austin has never really developed as a WR.

And that's why I wouldn't really care for him.  He might be nice insurance in the event Cohen were to ever get hurt (knock on wood) but unless he's a core special teamer then he's just taking up a roster spot.

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The thing with Austin is that he and Cohen could combine to essentially be a full time player... With some token packages that include both of them... 

I'd add that as we utilize Cohen more, that I'd give Austin more kick return reps. 

That said, Austin would absolutely be on a low cost "prove it" type deal specifically for his style *edit ELITE level, dang auto correct* level speed and athleticism and the belief that the Rams where misusing him. 

Edited by Epyon

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1 minute ago, Epyon said:

The thing with Austin is that he and Cohen could combine to essentially be a full time player... With some token packages that include both of them... 

I'd add that as we utilize Cohen more, that I'd give Austin more kick return reps. 

That said, Austin would absolutely be on a low cost "prove it" type deal specifically for his style level speed and athleticism and the belief that the Rams where misusing them. 

You will not speak of Sean mcVay that way.

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5 hours ago, Epyon said:

The thing with Austin is that he and Cohen could combine to essentially be a full time player... With some token packages that include both of them... 

I'd add that as we utilize Cohen more, that I'd give Austin more kick return reps. 

That said, Austin would absolutely be on a low cost "prove it" type deal specifically for his style *edit ELITE level, dang auto correct* level speed and athleticism and the belief that the Rams where misusing him. 

 

I can see what you mean. Austin plays a reserve to Cohen, when Cohen goes in at RB for Howard in obvious passing situations then Austin takes Cohen's spot outside to threaten with speed.

 

As long as he is the filler of the FA additions, I can be down. Hell White likely ends up on IR again so we need depth. Plus if he can add to special teams, that is always a plus.

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11 hours ago, Sugashane said:

 

I can see what you mean. Austin plays a reserve to Cohen, when Cohen goes in at RB for Howard in obvious passing situations then Austin takes Cohen's spot outside to threaten with speed.

 

As long as he is the filler of the FA additions, I can be down. Hell White likely ends up on IR again so we need depth. Plus if he can add to special teams, that is always a plus.

The problem is that Austin is not a threat. Teams do not bother covering him because he is bad.

We need fast, but good and fast.

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I'm listening to Pace's interview on Bears All Access... he said on the flight back with Nagy they were bouncing FA names off each other and was happy to see that they liked the same guys.

Curious AF who they have in mind...

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3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The problem is that Austin is not a threat. Teams do not bother covering him because he is bad.

We need fast, but good and fast.

 

Oh come on Windy that is an overreaction. They do too cover him, otherwise anyone would be able to make uncontested catches. Hell Whitworth could to that.  They don't roll coverage onto him like they do Fuller in HOU or anything, but he absolutely demands attention. No way the Rams staff is too stupid to get the ball to a wide open person.

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I tweeted at Ben Allbright about what the Bears might do in Free Agency and he said

The Bears are going to see what happens at WR, specifically with Albert Wilson and Emmanuel Sanders if he becomes available.

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1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

 

Oh come on Windy that is an overreaction. They do too cover him, otherwise anyone would be able to make uncontested catches. Hell Whitworth could to that.  They don't roll coverage onto him like they do Fuller in HOU or anything, but he absolutely demands attention. No way the Rams staff is too stupid to get the ball to a wide open person.

Of course someone covers him, but he draws 0 attention or worry from a DB.

The entire point of speed at WR is that it forces coverage back and forces a DB to play perfect technique.

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1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

I tweeted at Ben Allbright about what the Bears might do in Free Agency and he said

The Bears are going to see what happens at WR, specifically with Albert Wilson and Emmanuel Sanders if he becomes available.

More 3rd round and undrafted WRs that found success in this league. I'm saying, man, let Nagy and Helfrich determine what kind of athlete they want and then have Pace go find them. College football is littered with quick/athletic WRs.

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4 hours ago, G08 said:

More 3rd round and undrafted WRs that found success in this league. I'm saying, man, let Nagy and Helfrich determine what kind of athlete they want and then have Pace go find them. College football is littered with quick/athletic WRs.

 

Quick/athletic can be the "first cuts" so to speak, then different traits can further move the players up and down the board. Nagy will likely value quickness, deep speed, RAC ability, and football intelligence for the RPO and option route game. It is easy to find guys with these traits, but gets hard to find guys that check all the boxes.

 

Like Tyreek Hill they may go full on freak athlete and then rely on the coaches to develop him. IIRC Hill was predominantly a gadget player who started slow and was developed into a WR. This is why I feel they may take a swing on Sutton, Ridley, or Kirk in the first, Washington or St. Brown in the 2nd or later on guys like Coutee, Burnett, or even Callaway in the mid-rounds.

 

FA is going to be really interesting.

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This is not my post but I thought it provided a lot of great information:

I went on a fact finding mission on trying to find the correct WR's for us to sign, trade for, or keep on our roster. When I looked at the top 6 WR’s this year, I looked into their history for success. These guys came in all shapes, sizes, and uses in offenses but the one thing I saw was they were all at higher than 12 yards per catch average (for their careers) and they had a catch rate of 65% or higher. I realize there are factors here on catch rate but it’s eerily consistent in the top pass catchers:

Antonio Brown- 65% rate, 13.5 yards per
Keenan Allen- 67% rate, 12.4 per
Tyreek Hill- 72% rate, 13.1 per
Brandin Cooks- 65% rate, 14.1 per
Michael Thomas- 72% rate, 12.2 per
Julio Jones- 65% rate, 15.5 per

Keep those figures in mind when you look at who we should keep from our current roster:

Cam Meredith- 68% rate, 13 per
Dontrell Inman- 57% rate, 13.8 per
Kendall Wright- 65% rate, 11.4 per
Kevin White- 51% rate, 9.2 per
Marcus Wheaton- 54% rate, 14.1 per (17.6% with Bears 2017)
Josh Bellamy- 52% rate, 14.2 per

So in looking at our current group to choose from, granted Wright would technically be a FA, I would definitely only tie myself to Meredith and Wright. The rest of them you can definitely find upgrades. 

I was intrigued by two names I thought might be available in trade, T.Y Hilton and Phillip Dorsett (who NE didn’t seem to use much and might be open to trading). What I found was that neither really met the standards I would like moving forward (65% and 12 yards per). 

TY Hilton- 57% rate, 13 per
Phillip Dorsett- 55% rate, 14.8 per

Lastly I looked at the available FA crop (added Randell Cobb in due to the high possibility of him being released) and here’s what I found:

Randell Cobb- 70% rate, 12 per
Jarvis Landry- 70% rate, 10 per (however has had up to 12 per in the past)
Albert Wilson- 63% rate, 13.2 per
Paul Richardson- 60% rate, 16 per
Sammy Watkins- 55% rate, 15.2 per
Brice Butler- 55% rate, 21.1 per
Allen Robinson- 53% rate, 14 per
Terrell Pryor- 53% rate, 13.2 per

These stats made me rethink the whole Jarvis Landry debate, well that and I saw him at the skills competition and really liked what I saw. He is a number one receiver the more I look at it and at this time, I think I would recommend we pay the dude. The other enlightening part of this research is how good Cobb is and how bad Allen Robinson is within my requirements. I know football isn’t as big as MLB is when you talk about stats but to me, it looks like there is a correlation between catch rate and the top performers. Also, I think it is important to our new scheme that there is some yards per catch factored in. What I would really like to see is yards after catch for these guys as well since we will run some screens and other plays that will require this skill. 

Overall, I would like to see the Bears do the following:

1. Sign either Jarvis Landry (26) or Randell Cobb (27)- if somehow I can sign both then it’s a win, win. 
2. Either re-sign Kendall Wright (29) or sign Albert Wilson (25) **maybe sign both if I can’t get the two above. 
3. Sign Cam Meredith to a multiyear contract. He’s young and meets all the criteria.
4. Sign Paul Richardson for the yards per catch aspect and being closer to the 65% than anyone else 
5. Go into the draft looking for the best 65%/12 per WR in round 2, 3, or 4. 

If we started the year off with Landry, Wright, Wilson, Richardson, Meredith, a rookie, and White probably on the IR, I think I would be more than happy. If we were to get Cobb/Landry/Wilson/Meredith/rookie that would be awesome also. I think we have the cap space to do it.

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65% is a solid catch percentage.

I would be searching for guys with 12 yards per catch or more. That shows that they have some run after the catch ability as they do not have a ton of really short completions dragging their average down.

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