Senior Bowl Week Observations

[germ-x]

I'm responding to a few posts in this thread.

As far as the comparison between Allen to Lynch/Osweiler.  Lynch/Osweiler were definitely physically gifted QBs.  They had size, average to good athleticism, and above average to good arms.  Still, they aren't in Allen's league when it comes to the total package physically.  The only trait they have that trumps Allen is height.  Allen is elite in every physical category.  6'5" 237, with arm strength that is making even long time scouts shake their heads.  Athletically elite for an NFL QB as well and runs the 40 in the 4.6 range.  I think people are overlooking how physically gifted Allen really is.

I personally don't think Denver drafts him.  As I've said I've read a couple things now that state the feeling out of Denver is they won't go QB at #5.  That they aren't going to blow an early pick on another QB like they did with Osweiler and Lynch.  The belief seems to be that Denver will use the high selections to add talent throughout the roster and address the QB position in FA.  Personally, I think the #1 target of the entire offseason is Kirk Cousins.

As far as Allen's accuracy, I don't know.  Haven't watched anything other than highlights.  The completion percentage is definitely concerning, though.  Especially considering he played in a NFL/spread based type of offense.  However, I'll also say that it isn't unprecedented for a physically talented QB who had a low completion percentage in college and not the prettiest of stats to be selected and become franchise caliber QBs.  Drew Bledsoe had a career 54.3 completion % at Washington State and never threw for more than 20 TDs in a season.  Brett Favre had a career 52.4 completion percentage at Southern Mississippi and never threw for more than 16 TDs in a season.  Donovan McNabb had a career 58.4 completion percentage at Syracuse and never threw for more than 22 TDs in a season.  Kerry Collins had a career 56.3 completion percentage at Penn State and never threw for more than 21 TDs in a season.  Jeff George had a career 58.8 completion percentage at Purdue and Illinois and never threw for more than 22 TDs in a season.  Chris Chandler had a career 54.6 completion percentage at Washington and never threw for more than 20 TDs in a season.  All of these QBs were drafted in the last 30 years.

Josh Allen's career completion percentage is 56.2 at Wyoming and he never threw for more than 28 TDs in a season.

[Broncofan]

47 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I'm responding to a few posts in this thread.

As far as the comparison between Allen to Lynch/Osweiler.  Lynch/Osweiler were definitely physically gifted QBs.  They had size, average to good athleticism, and above average to good arms.  Still, they aren't in Allen's league when it comes to the total package physically.  The only trait they have that trumps Allen is height.  Allen is elite in every physical category.  6'5" 237, with arm strength that is making even long time scouts shake their heads.  Athletically elite for an NFL QB as well and runs the 40 in the 4.6 range.  I think people are overlooking how physically gifted Allen really is.

I personally don't think Denver drafts him.  As I've said I've read a couple things now that state the feeling out of Denver is they won't go QB at #5.  That they aren't going to blow an early pick on another QB like they did with Osweiler and Lynch.  The belief seems to be that Denver will use the high selections to add talent throughout the roster and address the QB position in FA.  Personally, I think the #1 target of the entire offseason is Kirk Cousins.

As far as Allen's accuracy, I don't know.  Haven't watched anything other than highlights.  The completion percentage is definitely concerning, though.  Especially considering he played in a NFL/spread based type of offense.  However, I'll also say that it isn't unprecedented for a physically talented QB who had a low completion percentage in college and not the prettiest of stats to be selected and become franchise caliber QBs.  Drew Bledsoe had a career 54.3 completion % at Washington State and never threw for more than 20 TDs in a season.  Brett Favre had a career 52.4 completion percentage at Southern Mississippi and never threw for more than 16 TDs in a season.  Donovan McNabb had a career 58.4 completion percentage at Syracuse and never threw for more than 22 TDs in a season.  Kerry Collins had a career 56.3 completion percentage at Penn State and never threw for more than 21 TDs in a season.  Jeff George had a career 58.8 completion percentage at Purdue and Illinois and never threw for more than 22 TDs in a season.  Chris Chandler had a career 54.6 completion percentage at Washington and never threw for more than 20 TDs in a season.  All of these QBs were drafted in the last 30 years.

Josh Allen's career completion percentage is 56.2 at Wyoming and he never threw for more than 28 TDs in a season.

The above stats are somewhat misleading because college passing completion rates were lower across the board for the guys cited compared to today’s era where completion rates are much higher.  

For example - from 1988-92, the era for George / Favre / Bledsoe there were only 10-12 QB’s a year with completion rates over 60 percent.  McNabb even cracked the top 10 QB's for completion % in his era for a couple of years.   This year? 54 QB's were at 60.0% or better.  Allen was 82nd.   

And it’s not just the numbers - the eye test during games shows major accuracy issues.  It’s frustrating because he makes amazing throws many QB’s can’t  - then misses a 10 yard bubble screen by 4-5 yards wide.   The track record behind accuracy issues this bad is just plain ugly.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The above stats are somewhat misleading because college passing completion rates were lower across the board compared to today’s era where completion rates are much higher.  

For example - from 1988-92, the era for George / Favre / Bledsoe there were only 10-12 QB’s a year with completion rates over 60 percent.  This year? 54 at 60.0 or better.  Allen was 82nd.  

And it’s not just the numbers - the eye test during games shows major accuracy issues.  It’s frustrating because he makes amazing throws many QB’s can’t  - then misses a 10 yard bubble screen by 4-5 yards wide.   The track record behind accuracy issues this bad is just plain ugly.  

I don’t disagree.  It’s a different era.  But even in that era the QBs that were high draft picks were typically the most physically talented players.  

Further, even guys like Elway and Favre were gunslingers.  I believe it may have even been AKRNA who said, sure Elway missed some easy throws, but made up for it by making exceptional ones that few in the game could’ve made.  Favre wasn’t much different in that respect.  Elway and Favre both had issues with touch, and basically threw high velocity passes, at least in the early portion of their careers. 

Personally, if you take a guy like Allen I think you’ll need to have a very good system in place to protect him.  IMO he’d be ideal in an Andy Reid type system (oddly Patrick Mahomes has some of these same questions with touch that Allen does).  A WCO/spread that will limit his reads and let him use his athleticism when needed until he gains experience and a better understanding of coverages.

I also am not great when it comes to QB mechanics, but unless there is some major deficiency there or above his shoulders he’d be hard to pass up.

Allen will/would be a risk.  One I probably wouldn’t take if I were Elway.  But also a guy that if he’s there at #5 and you pass for an OG 10 years down the road you may be kicking yourself (and out of a job) because he’s one of the best in the league.

Edited January 25, 2018 by germ-x

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree.  It’s a different era.  But even in that era the QBs that were high draft picks were typically the most physically talented players.  

Further, even guys like Elway and Favre were gunslingers.  I believe it may have even been AKRNA who said, sure Elway missed some easy throws, but made up for it by making exceptional ones that few in the game could’ve made.  Favre wasn’t much different in that respect.  Elway and Favre both had issues with touch, and basically threw high velocity passes, at least in the early portion of their careers. 

Personally, if you take a guy like Allen I think you’ll need to have a very good system in place to protect him.  IMO he’d be ideal in an Andy Reid type system (oddly Patrick Mahomes has some of these same questions with touch that Allen does).  A WCO/spread that will limit his reads and let him use his athleticism when needed until he gains experience and a better understanding of coverages.

I also am not great when it comes to QB mechanics, but unless there is some major deficiency there or above his shoulders he’d be hard to pass up.

Allen will/would be a risk.  One I probably wouldn’t take if I were Elway.  But also a guy that if he’s there at #5 and you pass for an OG 10 years down the road you may be kicking yourself because he’s one of the best in the league.

FWIW if there was a good best case for Allen it’s Favre for sure.  Even with the era adjusted #’s he was erratic in college and even in the early years.   Just for every Favre you have 9-10 Lockers.   Bortles kinda fits too TBH.   And despite his 2017 success it’s been basically 3 years of terribad QB (2015 stats were fueled entirely by garbage time being down 2-3 TD his stats in 1H or when game was close in 2H were abysmal) and then this year they mostly hid him as much as possible behind a run game and an elite D.    The odds just aren’t pretty esp given the price involved.   Mahomes accuracy was never questioned (touch is fair, he throws bullets), his decision making was a major issue.   Bortles is a much better comp nowadays. 

The flip side to passing on a great QB is if you pass on a perennial Pro Bowl player for Jake Locker or Blake Bortles you have that same bad feeling.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree.  It’s a different era.  But even in that era the QBs that were high draft picks were typically the most physically talented players.  

Further, even guys like Elway and Favre were gunslingers.  I believe it may have even been AKRNA who said, sure Elway missed some easy throws, but made up for it by making exceptional ones that few in the game could’ve made.  Favre wasn’t much different in that respect.  Elway and Favre both had issues with touch, and basically threw high velocity passes, at least in the early portion of their careers. 

Personally, if you take a guy like Allen I think you’ll need to have a very good system in place to protect him.  IMO he’d be ideal in an Andy Reid type system (oddly Patrick Mahomes has some of these same questions with touch that Allen does).  A WCO/spread that will limit his reads and let him use his athleticism when needed until he gains experience and a better understanding of coverages.

I also am not great when it comes to QB mechanics, but unless there is some major deficiency there or above his shoulders he’d be hard to pass up.

Allen will/would be a risk.  One I probably wouldn’t take if I were Elway.  But also a guy that if he’s there at #5 and you pass for an OG 10 years down the road you may be kicking yourself (and out of a job) because he’s one of the best in the league.

He's a top 5 talent for sure something Brock, Lynch, and cousins weren't. 

[1234567]

Allen is a physical freak with size and arm strength that rivals any QB in the league today. And in terms of physical ability, yes he is in a completely different universe than Oz or Lynch. But he can't. Throw. Receivers. Open.. In today's NFL, you HAVE to be able to do that, or you WON'T succeed. Period. The fact that he played in the Mountain West and still posted a 56% completion rate tells me all I need to know and I'm going to have a stroke if we draft him. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by 1234567
spelling error

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

Allen is a physical freak with size and arm strength that rivals any QB in the league today. And in terms of physical ability, yes he is in a completely different universe than Oz or Lynch. But he can't. Throw. Receivers. Open.. In today's NFL, you HAVE to be able to do that, or you WON'T succeed. Period. The fact that he played in the Mountain West and still posted a 56% completion rate tells me all I need to know and I'm going to have a stroke if we draft him. 

Is 56% completion not just as good than 65% in a spread one read system? We can't  kill the guy .

Edited January 25, 2018 by thebestever6

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

Allen is a physical freak with size and arm strength that rivals any QB in the league today. And in terms of physical ability, yes he is in a completely different universe than Oz or Lynch. But he can't. Throw. Receivers. Open.. In today's NFL, you HAVE to be able to do that, or you WON'T succeed. Period. The fact that he played in the Mountain West and still posted a 56% completion rate tells me all I need to know and I'm going to have a stroke if we draft him.

Between you, @champ11 & others who've expressed similar statements, we might have to have an ambulance nearby on Draft Night.  Or three.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW if there was a good best case for Allen it’s Favre for sure.  Even with the era adjusted #’s he was erratic in college and even in the early years.   Just for every Favre you have 9-10 Lockers.   Bortles kinda fits too TBH.   And despite his 2017 success it’s been basically 3 years of terribad QB (2015 stats were fueled entirely by garbage time being down 2-3 TD his stats in 1H or when game was close in 2H were abysmal) and then this year they mostly hid him as much as possible behind a run game and an elite D.    The odds just aren’t pretty esp given the price involved.   Mahomes accuracy was never questioned (touch is fair, he throws bullets), his decision making was a major issue.   Bortles is a much better comp nowadays. 

The flip side to passing on a great QB is if you pass on a perennial Pro Bowl player for Jake Locker or Blake Bortles you have that same bad feeling.  

I really don't like the Locker comp for Allen.  I know, it's just because he's a talented guy that flopped is why.  But Locker was too jacked up physically (by that I mean to much muscle and mass) to ever be a legitimate QB.  Like Brady Quinn, like Tebow, they lose too much dexterity and flexibility that there isn't anything to mold them into.  It's why you don't see muscle bound SPs in the MLB, those guys are relegated to relief.

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I really don't like the Locker comp for Allen.  I know, it's just because he's a talented guy that flopped is why.  But Locker was too jacked up physically (by that I mean to much muscle and mass) to ever be a legitimate QB.  Like Brady Quinn, like Tebow, they lose too much dexterity and flexibility that there isn't anything to mold them into.  It's why you don't see muscle bound SPs in the MLB, those guys are relegated to relief.

The reasons might be different, but the end result was the same - accuracy was their biggest Q.   I think Favre shows the best-case, but man, there are a lot of failed Rd1 picks where accuracy was the Achilles that doomed the guy.    The core problem is that if accuracy is still a problem by Year 1 NFL, it's just not that common that this problem goes away.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

It sounds to me Elway and Vance are conflicting.  Elway wants a traditional prostyle offense and Joseph wants an offense surrounding the strengths of the rookie qb. He wants to have more rpos in the offense. Very interesting wonder what Kubiak thinks.

Edited January 25, 2018 by thebestever6

[AKRNA]

A few of you have already mentioned it but I can't imagine Elway using another high draft pick on a "high ceiling" inaccurate, developmental QB.

The fans and press would be unforgiving if we spend a #5 pick on Allen and he's slow in development. Been there, done that.

 

[germ-x]

Just to add in terms of a recent prospect drafted highly with accuracy concerns.  Jay Cutler has a career 57.2 completion percentage and his best season he threw 21 TDs to 9 INTs.

I am by no means a big Cutler fan, but I know there are/were many in this forum who thought he would be an elite QB and still Denver’s QB to this day.  They may not admit it now, but there were tons of upset fans in this forum when he was traded that believed that.  Some still posting to this day.

His NFL completion percentage is 62%.  For those who don’t think it’s possible to improve completion percentage when moving to the NFL.  While Cutler was a damn good talent, he’s not Josh Allen in that respect nor does he have Allen’s mental makeup.

[broncos67]

If we're concerned about development timelines, I'm not sure why Mayfield is the best option either. His "want to" is desirable, but he's never taken snaps under center. He's going to require a massive amount of development considering the offense he came from.

 

[1234567]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Just to add in terms of a recent prospect drafted highly with accuracy concerns.  Jay Cutler has a career 57.2 completion percentage and his best season he threw 21 TDs to 9 INTs.

I am by no means a big Cutler fan, but I know there are/were many in this forum who thought he would be an elite QB and still Denver’s QB to this day.  They may not admit it now, but there were tons of upset fans in this forum when he was traded that believed that.  Some still posting to this day.

His NFL completion percentage is 62%.  For those who don’t think it’s possible to improve completion percentage when moving to the NFL.  While Cutler was a damn good talent, he’s not Josh Allen in that respect nor does he have Allen’s mental makeup.

True point on Cutler. However, with him we still had Shanahan. Shanny, Reid, Holmgren, and to some extent Arians. Those are the only coaches I can think of that I would feel comfortable with in terms of developing someone with that low of an accuracy rating. And even if we had someone like that on our staff, it would be a roll of the dice.