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Passing Targets Based on Chiefs Offense


WindyCity

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Looking at 3 years of the Chiefs offense and how many passes they threw and how many targets each position group got may give us some insight into what the Bears need and how they may distribute the targets in the upcoming season.

2017

Pass Attempts: 527

WR: 242
TE: 171
RB: 114


2016

Pass Attempts: 535

WR: 288
TE: 157
RB: 90


2015

Pass Attempts: 463

WR: 260
TE: 125
RB: 78


Averages

Pass Attempts: 508

WR: 263
TE: 151
RB: 94


Observations

-You have about 508 targets to distribute among the team.

-No WR in those 3 years had more than 124 targets. The slot WR [Wilson] was always around 60 receptions.

-Obviously we do not have Travis Kelce so the TE targets may be moved to another position.

-Before Kareem Hunt the Chiefs still threw a number of passes to the RB, even when they did not have as good a pass catching option.


Where do the 508 targets go?

WR Total Targets:

1:
2:
Slot:
4-6:

TE Total Targets:

1.
2.


RB Total Targets:

Howard:
Cohen:
3.

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Pass Attempts: 508

WR: 263
TE: 151
RB: 94

 

51.7% of all attempts go to WRs

29.7% go to TEs

18.5% go to RBs

 

I'm expecting to see Cohen flexed out quite a bit and Howard is going to have to live in front of a freaking jugs machine.

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11 minutes ago, G08 said:

Pass Attempts: 508

WR: 263
TE: 151
RB: 94

 

51.7% of all attempts go to WRs

29.7% go to TEs

18.5% go to RBs

 

I'm expecting to see Cohen flexed out quite a bit and Howard is going to have to live in front of a freaking jugs machine.

I could see 151 being a reasonable amount of targets for the TE position if we add someone. I do not think that Shaheen and Brown are meant to handle that type of volume.

Shaheen-80

Burton [FA]-60

Brown-11

 

But at this moment at TE that would seem like am ambitious number.

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I think Cohen and Howard can handle 94 targets.

I would not throw that many to Howard. Maybe 32, 2 a game, just to keep people honest.

Cohen in my opinion can handle more than the remaining 62. This could be where we see the bleed off of TE to Cohen getting 80 targets [5/game] seems reasonable along with 8-12 touches running the ball.

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Just now, G08 said:

I would swap out Sims for Burton, but really Sims moves better than what I think he showed us last season.

Sims to me is just so "meh" at everything.

Burton has the 4.62 speed to run some of the deeper routes that Kelce runs that I am not sure Shaheen is built for.

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1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

Sims to me is just so "meh" at everything.

Burton has the 4.62 speed to run some of the deeper routes that Kelce runs that I am not sure Shaheen is built for.

I've been a broken record with this but I want Shaheen to cut weight down to about 260 lbs, I think that's going to unlock some speed and balance for the kid.

The worry I have with the Howard/Cohen dynamic is tipping our hand.

Kareem Hunt played 64.75% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps (665 snaps), rushed the ball 272 times and was targeted 63 times in the passing game. So roughly 50% of the time he was on the field he was either rushing the ball or had a pass go his way.

Tyreek Hill played 75.56% of their snaps and had 122 combined looks. 18.34% of the time he was on the field he had the ball go his way.

That mix, I presume, is going to be different for Howard/Cohen. I honestly think that Howard is going to get a bulk of the carries, and Cohen is going to have a hybrid WR/RB role for us next season. Otherwise, you're tipping your hand way too much for my taste.

I'm anticipating a lot of shotgun, single back looks with Cohen outside or in the slot. RPOs with some ghost jet action from Cohen (sprinkled in with some reverses to keep defenses honest) and Howard punishing defenders on inside/outside zone.

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1 minute ago, G08 said:

I've been a broken record with this but I want Shaheen to cut weight down to about 260 lbs, I think that's going to unlock some speed and balance for the kid.

The worry I have with the Howard/Cohen dynamic is tipping our hand.

Kareem Hunt played 64.75% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps (665 snaps), rushed the ball 272 times and was targeted 63 times in the passing game. So roughly 50% of the time he was on the field he was either rushing the ball or had a pass go his way.

Tyreek Hill played 75.56% of their snaps and had 122 combined looks. 18.34% of the time he was on the field he had the ball go his way.

That mix, I presume, is going to be different for Howard/Cohen. I honestly think that Howard is going to get a bulk of the carries, and Cohen is going to have a hybrid WR/RB role for us next season. Otherwise, you're tipping your hand way too much for my taste.

I'm anticipating a lot of shotgun, single back looks with Cohen outside or in the slot. RPOs with some ghost jet action from Cohen (sprinkled in with some reverses to keep defenses honest) and Howard punishing defenders on inside/outside zone.

It will be one of the more interesting questions the offensive staff needs to answer. I think we could see a decent amount of them on the field together.

I also think we will see more of Cohen in at RB than we saw last season. Especially considering the amount of screens the Chiefs run on early downs. My guess is we will see a more equitable split of snaps to not tip our hands.

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Just now, Nads786 said:

Does anyone feel like we need another RB to spell Howard? I would have no problem with Pace drafting one in the 4th to compliment what we already have. 

It couldn't hurt, but looking at the Chiefs last season something like 95% of all rushes by RBs went to Hunt.

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Just now, Nads786 said:

Does anyone feel like we need another RB to spell Howard? I would have no problem with Pace drafting one in the 4th to compliment what we already have. 

We need someone who can fill his role if he is injured.

I am not a fan of giving Cohen or Cunningham 22-25 runs a game.

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To elaborate, I think Howard is the kind of guy that gets into a rhythm, so I have no issue with him taking the bulk of the reps. More and more this is why I think Cohen is going to be a ton of WR for us.

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2 minutes ago, G08 said:

To elaborate, I think Howard is the kind of guy that gets into a rhythm, so I have no issue with him taking the bulk of the reps. More and more this is why I think Cohen is going to be a ton of WR for us.

Yep I agree, I do think we need an insurance plan for Howard getting injured. I think something in the 4th-7th round would be great. We cannot have Benny out there as a full time starter if Howard goes down. 

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On 1/23/2018 at 11:13 AM, G08 said:

To elaborate, I think Howard is the kind of guy that gets into a rhythm, so I have no issue with him taking the bulk of the reps. More and more this is why I think Cohen is going to be a ton of WR for us.

I think we will see him in Hill’s role as the motion back either taking or faking the end around. 

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