Historic Expectations #14-#18 picks

[CWood21]

16 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

This is why, even though no-one can be sure how the draft falls, I still think that Pass rusher, WR, CB/TE, CB/TE (opposite of the one chosen in the previous pick), is the most likely draft order for the four picks (this assumus a comp 3rd) in rounds 1-3. If I had to pick a different position other than those listed, well OT is a long shot, I can't see much else being chosen unless a player high on the Packers board really drops.

Some really good thoughts here.  Let me add a few things.

~ I'm not sure well-thinned out is the right way to describe it.  There's talent in this year's class, maybe moreso than previous years.  You're just not going to get that Day 1 impact player outside of the first round.  You're right that the top pass rushers will go off well before the Packers pick at 45.  You'll obviously have Chubb off the board before 14, but you'll likely see Arden Key, Harold Landry, Marcus Davenport, Tremaine Edmunds, and a couple of other pass rushers go off the board, but there should be some talent available.  After that first round, you're looking at more situational pass rushers than anything.

~ CB seems a bit more thin, at least at the top.  At first glance, I think the only corners that will have first round grades are Josh Jackson, Denzel Ward, and Isaiah Oliver.  I think this is a position where you take a mid-round (3rd-5th round) pick and try and develop them.  Much like Davon House.  If you don't take one in the first, I think you're waiting to pick this position.

~ Not real bonafide star WR in this class IMO.  Calvin Ridley is probably the best of the bunch almost by default.  Should be able to get good value on Day 2.  Same thing with TE, although it's stronger at the top.  Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert are future starters, and some solid depth.  I'd anticipate a veteran TE is added, and they draft a toolsy TE.

[Greg C.]

Thanks for putting this list together. Like you, I was really struck by the high percentage of quality picks at interior OL and ILB. Almost all of them have been really good! The Packers don't need an interior OL, but I wonder if a good ILB would be worth it. I remember how the defense improved when Clay Matthews moved to ILB, and that was just shifting a player from one part of the field to another, rather than adding a new player. I thought they should have kept Clay at ILB, although at this point in his career, maybe it's a moot point because he is no longer such a dynamic player. 

Blake Martinez had a good season, but I don't think he is a difference maker. He did make some good plays, and he had a ton of tackles, but number of tackles is a garbage stat as far as I'm concerned. A team's leading tackler is generally whoever plays the most snaps at middle linebacker. And if the defense is bad (as ours was), he'll have even more tackles because he is on the field for more plays. I wonder if a really good, fast IILB who plays sideline-to-sideline could make this entire defense better.  Let Martinez be the #2 guy or just play him on early downs. Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for a pass rusher with that first pick, but maybe ILB is not out of the question. 

[pacman5252]

On 1/27/2018 at 6:43 PM, GWH87 said:

Pass rush can be had in the second round, I like our chances better there as teams will have a pissing match in the 1st for the high end guys. We pick up a guy like Dorance Armstrong Jr in the 2nd & sign Trent Murphy with the $$ we saved on Burnett. That to me will have a better impact on our Defense. James, Jones, Armstrong & Murphy or lets say we take Davenport in the 1st... my guess is he's top 10 now & Landry or Key aren't worth the pick @ 14.

If you look at the top 30 pass rushers in the league, it’s a lot of top 70 pick guys (few exceptions for character guys, older tweeners). If you want a rusher, you usually have to spend early and often. I’d personally be cool drafting 2 edge rushers with our top 2 picks considering success rates not being high in general and where ours is right now (needs improvement, Clay can be moved around, we know Perry won’t play 16 games).

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, Greg C. said:

Thanks for putting this list together. Like you, I was really struck by the high percentage of quality picks at interior OL and ILB. Almost all of them have been really good! The Packers don't need an interior OL, but I wonder if a good ILB would be worth it. I remember how the defense improved when Clay Matthews moved to ILB, and that was just shifting a player from one part of the field to another, rather than adding a new player. I thought they should have kept Clay at ILB, although at this point in his career, maybe it's a moot point because he is no longer such a dynamic player. 

Blake Martinez had a good season, but I don't think he is a difference maker. He did make some good plays, and he had a ton of tackles, but number of tackles is a garbage stat as far as I'm concerned. A team's leading tackler is generally whoever plays the most snaps at middle linebacker. And if the defense is bad (as ours was), he'll have even more tackles because he is on the field for more plays. I wonder if a really good, fast IILB who plays sideline-to-sideline could make this entire defense better.  Let Martinez be the #2 guy or just play him on early downs. Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for a pass rusher with that first pick, but maybe ILB is not out of the question. 

I definitely think for the right guy, we’d draft an ILB. We were rumored to be in on CJ Mosley a few years back. I know ILBs aren’t going to make as many splash plays but we got a whopping 1.5 sacks and 1 gift tipped ball in combined between our two ILBs. Yes Blake and Ryan are in the right position and don’t miss plays, but they are very Aj  Hawkian in that they aren’t real difference makers, lack coverage skills. In an area with teams doing more A gap blitzes, this needs to get better.

 

I’d be surprised if we went guard early, but we do potentially need 2 starting OL ( Evans is a FA and 34,  Bulaga had a bad injury, Spriggs still is a question, the depth behind them is questionable). If like Mike McGinchey fell, I’d be interested.

[GWH87]

9 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

If you look at the top 30 pass rushers in the league, it’s a lot of top 70 pick guys (few exceptions for character guys, older tweeners). If you want a rusher, you usually have to spend early and often. I’d personally be cool drafting 2 edge rushers with our top 2 picks considering success rates not being high in general and where ours is right now (needs improvement, Clay can be moved around, we know Perry won’t play 16 games).

Which is why I have us signing Murphy in what I was referencing & drafting Armstrong Jr. Two new bodies to get after the QB & this is after we draft the best in class safety out of this draft class to feast off their efforts.

[TransientTexan]

On 1/26/2018 at 1:01 AM, Sasquatch said:

Some very cool data in this spreadsheet.  Interesting- and encouraging- that only 10% of all picks stayed in the league less than three years.  Also, outside of QB’s, RB’s, TE’s, and kickers, there’s a fairly even distribution of picks across all other position groups.  

Now you’ve got me curious about where this draft order block (picks 14-18) rate against other blocks in the first round.  In other words, historically, where has the best overall “value” been found, by block, with regard to performance and duration in the league - impact.  One might think this is intuitive (that the best players who pan out in the NFL come in the early blocks), but I’m not so sure this is the case.  Get to work TransientTexan, and whip up some more data.  As they say, “In God we trust, all others bring data!”

Yea when I get some more time, I'd like to try and do a similar study on other pick ranges. Then we could see how the success rate drops off in different areas. I'm just trying to decide what sorts of pick ranges I want to include in each "block". Looking back at this chart that was based on a 5-pick range, the sample sizes look pretty small, at least for some positions like QB & TE, so there might be too much deviation if you're trying to compare broader success rate trends with other blocks. It would probably be better to split the rounds into quarters, or thirds (ie. top-10, mid-22, bottom-10) to get a bigger position sample. I still want to make it as targeted as possible to areas within rounds. 

[Arthur Penske]

Really surprised at the lack of love for Martinez here. That guy was a stud for a sophomore in 2018. Excited to see what he can do in his 3rd  year.

[Sasquatch]

4 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Yea when I get some more time, I'd like to try and do a similar study on other pick ranges. Then we could see how the success rate drops off in different areas. I'm just trying to decide what sorts of pick ranges I want to include in each "block". Looking back at this chart that was based on a 5-pick range, the sample sizes look pretty small, at least for some positions like QB & TE, so there might be too much deviation if you're trying to compare broader success rate trends with other blocks. It would probably be better to split the rounds into quarters, or thirds (ie. top-10, mid-22, bottom-10) to get a bigger position sample. I still want to make it as targeted as possible to areas within rounds. 

I think you’re on the right track in your thinking.  I’m really curious about the “bust” rate in the various rounds, and especially in the first round (regardless of how you group it).  I’d then like to compare the Packers first round bust rate to other teams, or at least against the average to see where they stand.  Of course, this data is only really helpful over many years of draft picks, and maybe this data already exists, I don’t know.  

Anywho, thanks for your efforts on this - definitely interesting.

[MacReady]

11 hours ago, ArthurPensky said:

Really surprised at the lack of love for Martinez here. That guy was a stud for a sophomore in 2018. Excited to see what he can do in his 3rd  year.

Packer fans need a 190 pound inside linebacker that intercepts three balls a year, gets 4 sacks a year in which he's untouched, celebrates every time he goes in untouched to make a tackle and doesn't mess up the tackle and is really fast. 

They'd probably trade our first pick for Shaq Thompson or Hasaan Reddick right now. 

[Joe]

On 1/29/2018 at 5:48 PM, ArthurPensky said:

Really surprised at the lack of love for Martinez here. That guy was a stud for a sophomore in 2018. Excited to see what he can do in his 3rd  year.

Agreed.

I compliment the OP with his research here too. I would also have to mention the fact that some of those players, mainly EJ Manuel and Gosder Cherilus as of recent, were incredible reaches. The good news is that we have traditionally NOT been that type of team.