Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50 Prospects for the 2018 draft

[Iamcanadian]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft

[BleedTheClock]

Insanely high on Tremaine Edmunds.

Too high on Ronald Jones.

Too low on Orlando Brown.

 

Other than that, I don't see too many outrageous things that differ from my board. I will say I've never heard of that C from Iowa though. I'll have to give him a look.

[Forge]

41 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Insanely high on Tremaine Edmunds.

Too high on Ronald Jones.

Too low on Orlando Brown.

 

Other than that, I don't see too many outrageous things that differ from my board. I will say I've never heard of that C from Iowa though. I'll have to give him a look.

I think Davenport at 10 is crazy. I get that he's a possibility for the top 10, but it's based mostly on crazy upside...I don't view him as an actual top 10 player in the draft. Talent maybe, but I'm not quite sure how he's ranking. Josh Allen has crazy talent too, I wouldn't put him up there either. But I guess he's ranking on upside too.

 

I just think Davenport has s long way to go. Assuming that he can just play in the dirt after spending almost all his time standing up is a stretch. He basically has one move - I'm going to punch you as hard as I can, and if you can stand up to it, I'm done. Great closing speed, but I don't think that he moves east west all that great. 

[BleedTheClock]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

I think Davenport at 10 is crazy. I get that he's a possibility for the top 10, but it's based mostly on crazy upside...I don't view him as an actual top 10 player in the draft. Talent maybe, but I'm not quite sure how he's ranking. Josh Allen has crazy talent too, I wouldn't put him up there either. But I guess he's ranking on upside too.

 

I just think Davenport has s long way to go. Assuming that he can just play in the dirt after spending almost all his time standing up is a stretch. He basically has one move - I'm going to punch you as hard as I can, and if you can stand up to it, I'm done. Great closing speed, but I don't think that he moves east west all that great. 

But how often do you see people stand up to Davenport on that move? Not often. His side of the pocket is constantly collapsing. He's going to add 15 pounds of muscle to his frame when he hits the NFL. He's going to learn how to win in other ways. He has more than enough ability to win with his athleticism as an edge bender, but he hasn't needed to do this. He demolished his inferior competition with the bull rush. I can't really fault him for constantly going to it. It'd be like bashing a QB for throwing to the flats all game long, but scoring 50 points per game doing so.

I understand his hype is based partially on upside, but this dude isn't Arden Key or Barkevious Mingo or Vernon Gholston. He has a crazy ceiling and isn't unpolished enough to be labeled a low floor guy IMO. He's got top 5 DE in the NFL upside. Those kind of guys should go in the top 10, especially if they're productive and tough in college.

He does need to improve his tenacity defending the run. And yes, I want to see him use more speed, but I have seen him rip around the edge with ease before. He just prefers to bull rush OT's back into the QB and either get the sack or bat down the football. I'd much rather my DE consistently go to the bull rush than the edge rip. I know it's a bit of a projection, but I have to believe he's going to learn to master a move or two off of the bull rush.

I see the concern for him never playing with his hand in the dirt, but he did it at the Senior Bowl and looked fine doing it. It'll be an adjustment, but this is extremely minor to me. I can't think of any DE's that failed in the NFL because they couldn't figure out how to play in a 3-point stance.

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I think Davenport at 10 is crazy. I get that he's a possibility for the top 10, but it's based mostly on crazy upside...I don't view him as an actual top 10 player in the draft. Talent maybe, but I'm not quite sure how he's ranking. Josh Allen has crazy talent too, I wouldn't put him up there either. But I guess he's ranking on upside too.

 

I just think Davenport has s long way to go. Assuming that he can just play in the dirt after spending almost all his time standing up is a stretch. He basically has one move - I'm going to punch you as hard as I can, and if you can stand up to it, I'm done. Great closing speed, but I don't think that he moves east west all that great. 

I don't necessarily agree with Davenport Top-10, but i don't think it's that crazy or difficult to see where Jeremiah is coming from there.

It's not the most enthralling DE class.  There's some interesting depth to it, but kinda thin at the top end...especially in terms of prototypical hand in dirt guys with big "boom" upside.  Davenport probably more than anything, looks the part, has some good (but limited) limited tape of success with what he's good at, and by most accounts a ton of character, work ethic, and drive.

A guy that teams can look at and see a potential Calais Campbell or whatever, with the sort of positional/scheme versatility Davenport flashes is going to be coveted.  Teams will overlook the fact that he might need a bit of work to fully realize his potential.  They always do.  Sometimes it pays off, other times it obviously doesn't.  It's always a gamble on those "upside" types...just have to evaluate how likely you think they are to actually come close to that ceiling.  Which is where i think it's probably a "safer" bet on a guy like Davenport's raw talent, over a guy like Josh Allen.  Especially at a position where a big miss will absolutely kill you because of the time and franchise investment.  A QB who busts hard is a death sentence and totally useless.  A DE with Davenport's size, even if he doesn't eventually develop a more varied skillset and technical acumen...is still a useful roster player who can go out there and play for you.

It's a package of "high ceiling", with a relatively "high floor"...as long as you trust the kid's work ethic, character, and love of the game.  At a premium position.

[goldfishwars]

The things people continue to forgive Josh Allen for, whilst punishing Lamar Jackson continues to crack me up. 

[Tugboat]

31 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

The things people continue to forgive Josh Allen for, whilst punishing Lamar Jackson continues to crack me up. 

Other than generalities of both being very "raw", "inaccurate", and "unpolished" as passers, and both being athletic guys and seen as having pretty high "bust" potential...are the specific flaws/criticisms really that much the same?

One is a robust big bodied huge arm guy that trusts his arm way too much.  The other is a lightly framed guy who prefers to use his feet over his own arm too much.

They're both pretty flawed.  Just seems like a lot of people are more willing to overlook the big inaccurate overconfident passer, over the slight running QB with accuracy issues.  Pick your poison really.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I don't necessarily agree with Davenport Top-10, but i don't think it's that crazy or difficult to see where Jeremiah is coming from there.

It's not the most enthralling DE class.  There's some interesting depth to it, but kinda thin at the top end...especially in terms of prototypical hand in dirt guys with big "boom" upside.  Davenport probably more than anything, looks the part, has some good (but limited) limited tape of success with what he's good at, and by most accounts a ton of character, work ethic, and drive.

A guy that teams can look at and see a potential Calais Campbell or whatever, with the sort of positional/scheme versatility Davenport flashes is going to be coveted.  Teams will overlook the fact that he might need a bit of work to fully realize his potential.  They always do.  Sometimes it pays off, other times it obviously doesn't.  It's always a gamble on those "upside" types...just have to evaluate how likely you think they are to actually come close to that ceiling.  Which is where i think it's probably a "safer" bet on a guy like Davenport's raw talent, over a guy like Josh Allen.  Especially at a position where a big miss will absolutely kill you because of the time and franchise investment.  A QB who busts hard is a death sentence and totally useless.  A DE with Davenport's size, even if he doesn't eventually develop a more varied skillset and technical acumen...is still a useful roster player who can go out there and play for you.

It's a package of "high ceiling", with a relatively "high floor"...as long as you trust the kid's work ethic, character, and love of the game.  At a premium position.

I honestly don't mean to offend.  But you're out of your freaking mind.  This is the most talented DE class we've seen since 2011.  Especially at the top.  There are 3 All-Pro/Pro-Bowl caliber talents IMO.  Bradley Chubb reminds me of All-Pro Ravens OLB Peter Boulware.  Arden Key is the spitting image of All-Pro Bucs DE Simeon Rice.  And although I'm not 100% confident on this, Marcus Davenport reminds me of Hall of Fame DE Jason Taylor physically.  I don't know if he'll be as dominant as Taylor but he's got a very similar skill set.

Bradley Chubb, Arden Key, and Marcus Davenport make this an all-time great DE draft.

[goldfishwars]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Other than generalities of both being very "raw", "inaccurate", and "unpolished" as passers, and both being athletic guys and seen as having pretty high "bust" potential...are the specific flaws/criticisms really that much the same?

One is a robust big bodied huge arm guy that trusts his arm way too much.  The other is a lightly framed guy who prefers to use his feet over his own arm too much.

They're both pretty flawed.  Just seems like a lot of people are more willing to overlook the big inaccurate overconfident passer, over the slight running QB with accuracy issues.  Pick your poison really.

No, the criticisms aren’t the same – but the obvious flaws in Josh Allen’s game don’t seem to be hurting him anywhere near as much as Lamar Jackson’s. And do they add up to the same? It’s actually easier to argue that you can install a game plan around Jackson’s skillset far easier, than Allen. How many quarterbacks come into the league with accuracy issues get better? Accuracy tends to be a fundamental flaw that grounds your game, unless you have something else in your locker like Cam Newton.

We can add up pluses and minuses, but I just don't understand how that totals to a full round apart. A full round. I guess know why, the NFL is unable to resist its bias for big armed, big bodied quarterback prospects regardless of important details like whether he can actually throw to the receiver he is meant to throw to.

[Tugboat]

On 1/29/2018 at 5:55 AM, goldfishwars said:

No, the criticisms aren’t the same – but the obvious flaws in Josh Allen’s game don’t seem to be hurting him anywhere near as much as Lamar Jackson’s. And do they add up to the same? It’s actually easier to argue that you can install a game plan around Jackson’s skillset far easier, than Allen. How many quarterbacks come into the league with accuracy issues get better? Accuracy tends to be a fundamental flaw that grounds your game, unless you have something else in your locker like Cam Newton.

We can add up pluses and minuses, but I just don't understand how that totals to a full round apart. A full round. I guess know why, the NFL is unable to resist its bias for big armed, big bodied quarterback prospects regardless of important details like whether he can actually throw to the receiver he is meant to throw to.

Kinda depends on how you view Jackson's accuracy.  Which to me, seems hit or miss as well...much like Allen.  And just how much you value that size and/or more importantly...worry about the durability of a runner like Jackson at his size.  It worries me a fair bit.

A full round apart is probably too much though, i agree.  Though i can halfway see why.

 

At the end of the day, as a GM looking at these two QBs...it's probably a choice of whether you'd like to see your career go down in flames for overdrafting a guy who stays healthy but never actually reaches his nebulous arm talent "ceiling", or for overdrafting a guy who flashes something as a runner and ends up getting physically broken down to the point he never actually reaches his ceiling.  

[Tugboat]

On 1/29/2018 at 5:23 AM, VanS said:

I honestly don't mean to offend.  But you're out of your freaking mind.  This is the most talented DE class we've seen since 2011.  Especially at the top.  There are 3 All-Pro/Pro-Bowl caliber talents IMO.  Bradley Chubb reminds me of All-Pro Ravens OLB Peter Boulware.  Arden Key is the spitting image of All-Pro Bucs DE Simeon Rice.  And although I'm not 100% confident on this, Marcus Davenport reminds me of Hall of Fame DE Jason Taylor physically.  I don't know if he'll be as dominant as Taylor but he's got a very similar skill set.

Bradley Chubb, Arden Key, and Marcus Davenport make this an all-time great DE draft.

I like the depth of guys with some upside, but eh...only 3 real 1st round guys, and one of them (Key) had an absolutely disappointing final season with all sorts of off-field stuff swirling around him on top of it?

Chubb is a good prospect for sure, and a solid bet to have a good long productive career.  But i don't think he measures up to Garrett, Bosa, Clowney as a "headliner" prospect at the position.  And without a ton of 1st round calibre depth behind him...i'd call it a less than stellar DE class at the top.

 

I'm just not that blown away by the "top end" of this draft in general though.  It feels like a draft that's just loaded with depth, especially at positions like OL where the league is starving for help.  And including edge players where there looks like lots of intriguing Day2 sort of options.  But eh...Chubb/Davenport/Key doesn't strike me as "all-time great DE draft".  Not that those sort of projections are usually right either way in the end anyway...as it always comes down to the later picks who exceed all expectations to become superstars.

[Iamcanadian]

On 1/29/2018 at 7:23 AM, VanS said:

I honestly don't mean to offend.  But you're out of your freaking mind.  This is the most talented DE class we've seen since 2011.  Especially at the top.  There are 3 All-Pro/Pro-Bowl caliber talents IMO.  Bradley Chubb reminds me of All-Pro Ravens OLB Peter Boulware.  Arden Key is the spitting image of All-Pro Bucs DE Simeon Rice.  And although I'm not 100% confident on this, Marcus Davenport reminds me of Hall of Fame DE Jason Taylor physically.  I don't know if he'll be as dominant as Taylor but he's got a very similar skill set.

Bradley Chubb, Arden Key, and Marcus Davenport make this an all-time great DE draft.

I think you are pushing it quite a bit. Chubb is a solid top 5 prospect, Davenport will likely go top 15 as he still has a lot to prove, but Key has huge question marks and red flags and may have to sneak into the first round. Does not sound like a really great class to me!!! 

[Iamcanadian]

1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

Kinda depends on how you view Jackson's accuracy.  Which to me, seems hit or miss as well...much like Allen.  And just how much you value that size and/or more importantly...worry about the durability of a runner like Jackson at his size.  It worries me a fair bit.

A full round apart is probably too much though, i agree.  Though i can halfway see why.

 

At the end of the day, as a GM looking at these two QBs...it's probably a choice of whether you'd like to see your career go down in flames for overdrafting a guy who stays healthy but never actually reaches his nebulous arm talent "ceiling", or for overdrafting a guy who flashes something as a runner and ends up getting physically broken down to the point he never actually reaches his ceiling.  

I like you assessment of these 2, but IMO, they are both worth the risk in round 1, if it isn't too high of a pick.

Arms like Allen's are always worth the risk, if in your opinion, he is coachable and while Jackson has a body that could signal a shorter career, especially since he likes to run the ball, if his escapability is Vick like, then he is worth a first rounder as he is a far better passer than Vick could ever dream of being!!! However, if you suspect, his escapability isn't Vick like, then IMO, he isn't worth drafting as a QB.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I like the depth of guys with some upside, but eh...only 3 real 1st round guys, and one of them (Key) had an absolutely disappointing final season with all sorts of off-field stuff swirling around him on top of it?

Chubb is a good prospect for sure, and a solid bet to have a good long productive career.  But i don't think he measures up to Garrett, Bosa, Clowney as a "headliner" prospect at the position.  And without a ton of 1st round calibre depth behind him...i'd call it a less than stellar DE class at the top.

 

I'm just not that blown away by the "top end" of this draft in general though.  It feels like a draft that's just loaded with depth, especially at positions like OL where the league is starving for help.  And including edge players where there looks like lots of intriguing Day2 sort of options.  But eh...Chubb/Davenport/Key doesn't strike me as "all-time great DE draft".  Not that those sort of projections are usually right either way in the end anyway...as it always comes down to the later picks who exceed all expectations to become superstars.

I agree that nobody in this class measures up to Myles Garrett.  That guy is all-time special.  A spitting image of Bruce Smith IMO.  But I like the top 3 DEs in this class (Chubb, Key, and Davenport) more than Bosa and Clowney.  Bosa has been decently productive in his first 2 seasons but I don't see him being a dominant 1st team All-Pro caliber DE going forward.  And sure Clowney was a freak on paper and has had a couple of good years lately but I never was too high on him.  Given the expectations he came in with, he's been a disappointment in terms of sack production.  20 sacks in 4 years is not that impressive.  And even if we take out the first 2 injury ravaged years, he's only had 15.5 sacks combined the last 2 years.  Good production no doubt.  But he's not the generational player he was touted as.

The "top end" talent of the 2018 draft is the best we've seen IMO since 2011.  I believe its filled with All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers.  Especially at the top.  As I said earlier, I believe the top 3 DEs in this class are equivalent to Jason Taylor, Simeon Rice, and Peter Boulware.  I'm sure any draft with 3 DEs of that caliber headlining it would be considered incredible.

[VanS]

3 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I think you are pushing it quite a bit. Chubb is a solid top 5 prospect, Davenport will likely go top 15 as he still has a lot to prove, but Key has huge question marks and red flags and may have to sneak into the first round. Does not sound like a really great class to me!!! 

Before the season he was projected as a top 5 pick.  He had shoulder surgery and came in out of shape.  I don't think a subpar year all of a sudden makes him less talented.  He simply had a bad year. 

The people down on Arden Key after a subpar junior year remind me of the people who were down on JuJu Smith-Schuster last year after he had a down junior year compared to his scintillating sophomore season.  Remember JuJu Smith-Schuster was projected as a high 1st round pick going into the 2016 college football season.  But he had a subpar season compared to his sophomore campaign and thus fell to the 2nd round.  And now after his rookie season he looks like the stud who everyone liked after his sophomore year.  Similarly, Arden Key had a monster sophomore year and had everyone loving him as a top 5 pick.  Now everyone is down on him because he had off-season surgery and never quite made it all the way back?  That makes no sense to me.

I still believe Arden Key is the same prospect he was after his amazing sophomore year.  He'll be a hell of a player in the NFL.  Simeon Rice 2.0 IMO.