Cleveland

[Iamcanadian]

10 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Cheesy, but it underscores the problem. There is no consensus as to who the best QB is. 

 

You can be sure that the scouts and GM's know exactly who the top QB is, certainly by the end of the draft process. Draftniks may be confused, but GM's and scouts rarely are.

 

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Here's my thoughts on the QB's:

 

Sam Darnold: Great skill set. Big, strong, fast, tall, great arm, great accuracy. Played in a pro style offense. Was productive despite losing a ton of his talent from the previous year. He manipulates the pocket so well and can make every throw even without a great platform for delivery. He scans the entire field and understands how to throw the football into spots where only the WR can get it. He does have a glaring weakness, and it's pocket presence. He is seemingly oblivious to pressure and has turned the ball over on strip sacks a comical amount of times. This needs to get solved, but other than that, he has a great outlook as a franchise QB.

 

Josh Rosen: Most polished passer. Elite footwork in the pocket. Flawless delivery. Good size and good enough athleticism. Makes full-field reads and is accurate at all levels...particularly underneath. Gives his WR's a chance to run with the ball after the catch by putting it right on their hands in stride. He has a + arm, but it's not quite as strong as the other top 3 QB's in the class. It's certainly strong enough to make every throw though. Apparently he has some baggage off the field, but we don't get to interview him about it so I can't really judge his character. I don't care if he likes other things besides football as long as he gets the job done on Sundays.

 

Baker Mayfield: Arguably a higher ceiling than Rosen or Darnold because of his spectacular play ability. The dude is so good at manipulating the rush, throwing on the run, and play action. Scary good in those regards. Great athlete at the position. Makes throws in tight windows both in coverage and through his OL. Elite zip on his passes. He has good size and strength, but certainly suffers in the height department. He is accurate at every level of the field. He is insanely competitive. His teammates and coaches love him. Oh, and he has a rocket launcher for an arm. Concerns are his height and his collegiate scheme that is pure spread. I think he has as much upside, if not more, than anyone in the class.

 

Josh Allen: Insanely high ceiling. Makes the most spectacular wtf throws I've ever seen. But he's also got a catastrophically low floor. I love that he played in a pro style and I love his personality. He really has every tool other than accuracy. Accuracy has been a big problem for him and as much as young me used to believe this was a trait you could easily solve, I'm beginning to realize that very rarely do inaccurate guys fix those problems once they reach the college level. Decision making can improve, but accuracy? Not so much. He's a scary proposition, especially if we're taking a QB at #1.

 

 

Overall, I think my wish list for Cleveland is as such:

 

#1--Sam Darnold (Best blend of upside and safety)

#2--Josh Rosen (Mechanically elite)

#3--Baker Mayfield (A little risky, but Russell Wilson type skill set)

#4--Josh Allen (Too risky, but the upside is cray cray)

Pretty decent assessment, but Mayfield only has a solid pro arm not an elite one. Only Allen has that. 

I think it will be Darnold unless he falls apart in the post season draft process. Mayfield and Allen just carry too much risk IMO, and Rosen has a pretty long history injury wise.

With the first overall pick, teams will avoid any risk if they can and Darnold would seem to fill that place, so I suspect he will be a shoe in if he is willing to play in Cleveland. 

[BleedTheClock]

3 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

You can be sure that the scouts and GM's know exactly who the top QB is, certainly by the end of the draft process. Draftniks may be confused, but GM's and scouts rarely are.

 

Pretty decent assessment, but Mayfield only has a solid pro arm not an elite one. Only Allen has that. 

I think it will be Darnold unless he falls apart in the post season draft process. Mayfield and Allen just carry too much risk IMO, and Rosen has a pretty long history injury wise.

With the first overall pick, teams will avoid any risk if they can and Darnold would seem to fill that place, so I suspect he will be a shoe in if he is willing to play in Cleveland. 

Mayfield doesn't have an insane deep ball arm, but he has elite zip on his passes. He can absolutely rifle it to guys in the underneath and intermediate range. His 10-20 yard throws come out harder and faster than any of the other QB's in my mind. There are two kinds of arm strength. Distance arms and zip arms. Some have both. Some have one or the other. Mayfield has a good distance arm and an elite zip arm in my opinion.

 

I'm fine with Rosen or Darnold. I can't imagine either being a bust. I'm smitten by Mayfield and leery of Josh Allen, but still enamored by his physical ability. It'd be stupid to play Russian Roulette and take Mayfield/Allen, as tempting as it might be.

[onejayhawk]

7 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

You can be sure that the scouts and GM's know exactly who the top QB is, certainly by the end of the draft process. Draftniks may be confused, but GM's and scouts rarely are.

To the contrary. There is often disagreement. What they will agree on is the measurables and most of the assessments. How those details are weighed is another issue. That said, they will often reach consensus while we are ignorant. 

 

6 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Mayfield doesn't have an insane deep ball arm, but he has elite zip on his passes. He can absolutely rifle it to guys in the underneath and intermediate range. His 10-20 yard throws come out harder and faster than any of the other QB's in my mind. There are two kinds of arm strength. Distance arms and zip arms. Some have both. Some have one or the other. Mayfield has a good distance arm and an elite zip arm in my opinion.

 

I'm fine with Rosen or Darnold. I can't imagine either being a bust. I'm smitten by Mayfield and leery of Josh Allen, but still enamored by his physical ability. It'd be stupid to play Russian Roulette and take Mayfield/Allen, as tempting as it might be.

What if you assess that Darnold's arm will be a career impacting? What if Rosen is too much like Cutler? What if Mayfield has the "it" factor? What if the guy you really like turns out to be Kyle Lualetta? If your favorite QB is neither Darnold nor Rosen, what do you do?

J

[43M]

5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

You take the QB #1. Whoever is the highest QB on your board, you take him. Even if you think the gap between the top QBs is small, you're putting the future of your franchise on whoever you take, so you take your top QB #1.

While I agree with this to a point, I personally am not a huge fan of any of these QBs as a top 10 pick.     Personally, if I was a GM, the only QB I would draft with 1 is Rosen.    I dont think there is a huge gap in talent/upside between the next 3 (Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson), so I would likely trade down and then take a QB at 4, or if I only traded down to 6 or 7, wait until then, depending how many QBs are left.

However, if the Browns feel very strongly about someone at first overall, they should take that QB at first overall.    My idea is largely based on my views of the top QBs in this draft.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I kind of hope they get Cousins. Makes the draft crazy up top. Get Cousins, either trade down from 1 but not far, hopefully 2, 3 or 5 so they can get 2 of Chubb/Minkah/Barkley

[lod01]

 

On ‎2‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 1:01 PM, onejayhawk said:

Cheesy, but it underscores the problem. There is no consensus as to who the best QB is. 

 

That's why trading the #1 for as much as they can get to a QB needy team is the best move because no matter what they get either Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or Allen at #4. It's a no brainer decision in my mind.

 

[vinceb]

On 1/31/2018 at 3:57 PM, onejayhawk said:

The Browns own three paired picks--the 1st and 4th picks, 1st and 3rd picks of round 2, next to last pick in round 2 and first of round 3. Numerically it is (1, 4), (33, 36), (63, 65). Given the unusual nature of the layout, how should the best approach this draft? 

• Pick a QB with #1 only if they think one QB is far above the rest.
• Get the very best player, regardless of position. 
• If your favorite QB is not among the top 3, consider drafting 2-3 lower tier QB.
• Build the future around picks 3-6. Use the first round for instant starters. 

How would you strategize? What needs would you set aside and hope a deep pick will help? What is the priority?

J

Imo as guy new here but has been a draft guy for over 20 years we have to adress free agency first. We already lost on A. Smith. Big mistake imo. With 103 mil in cap space a #1 cb is first i

[squire12]

2 hours ago, lod01 said:

 

That's why trading the #1 for as much as they can get to a QB needy team is the best move because no matter what they get either Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or Allen at #4. It's a no brainer decision in my mind.

 

If CLE has 1 of the QB as a clear tier above the others, then trading the top pick is not the right move.

[Iamcanadian]

It is my experience from watching the Peyton/Leaf and the Goff/Wentz drafts, that while draftniks here may argue over who will be a better pick, the pro teams that drafted Peyton and Goff had no doubts about who would be the best in their opinion.

Even Trubisky vs Watson or Mahomes, I think you can say that Chicago was completely sold on their man.

There is very little that can change a team's draft board at this stage, they will use the Combine and Pro Days to confirm how they still feel about a prospect after seeing how he performs at both, but it is actually fairly rare that teams make significant changes to their boards based on the post season, unless a prospect fails miserably at the Combine or his pro day, like if you are expecting something in the 4.40 range and you get a 4.55, then a player can slide a bit or a lot, depending on their performance.

Teams scouting departments have been hard at work for over a month reviewing film of each play a prospect did last season and while Mayock may just be starting to view film, the pro scouts and GM's have gone over it many times already. I am pretty sure, Cleveland already knows which QB they will take first after studying every throw he made this season and perhaps, last season as well!!!

I would say that only small school prospects and junior who declared late, have much of a chance to change their draft status at this point, small college players, because the scouts and GM's want to see them against more polished players from larger schools to see how they adjust and juniors because, after training with pro type coaches in the post season, they also can make significant improvements.

[H2ThaIzzo]

On 2/3/2018 at 12:50 AM, FourThreeMafia said:

While I agree with this to a point, I personally am not a huge fan of any of these QBs as a top 10 pick.     Personally, if I was a GM, the only QB I would draft with 1 is Rosen.    I dont think there is a huge gap in talent/upside between the next 3 (Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson), so I would likely trade down and then take a QB at 4, or if I only traded down to 6 or 7, wait until then, depending how many QBs are left.

However, if the Browns feel very strongly about someone at first overall, they should take that QB at first overall.    My idea is largely based on my views of the top QBs in this draft.

This is exactly where I am with things. Darnold has that wind up delivery, happy feet at times, and a lot of turnovers. Mayfield isn't ideal height wise and his competitiveness at times leads to immature actions. Jackson we just haven't seen enough pure QB play to know his potential. Rosen has the Mike Glennon build, he looks more like a punter than a QB. But he is the best out of the group. I'm on the trade down train, but I'm also on the do everything to get Cousins train. 

[squire12]

9 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

It is my experience from watching the Peyton/Leaf and the Goff/Wentz drafts, that while draftniks here may argue over who will be a better pick, the pro teams that drafted Peyton and Goff had no doubts about who would be the best in their opinion.

Even Trubisky vs Watson or Mahomes, I think you can say that Chicago was completely sold on their man.

There is very little that can change a team's draft board at this stage, they will use the Combine and Pro Days to confirm how they still feel about a prospect after seeing how he performs at both, but it is actually fairly rare that teams make significant changes to their boards based on the post season, unless a prospect fails miserably at the Combine or his pro day, like if you are expecting something in the 4.40 range and you get a 4.55, then a player can slide a bit or a lot, depending on their performance.

Teams scouting departments have been hard at work for over a month reviewing film of each play a prospect did last season and while Mayock may just be starting to view film, the pro scouts and GM's have gone over it many times already. I am pretty sure, Cleveland already knows which QB they will take first after studying every throw he made this season and perhaps, last season as well!!!

I would say that only small school prospects and junior who declared late, have much of a chance to change their draft status at this point, small college players, because the scouts and GM's want to see them against more polished players from larger schools to see how they adjust and juniors because, after training with pro type coaches in the post season, they also can make significant improvements.

Part of the remaining "scouting process" is the onsite meetings and interviews, private workouts.  Most of the teams in the top 5-10 that are looking at QB's will want to get those QB's in for individual workouts and go over more of the mental aspects.  Film breakdown, decision making talk sessions of plays that he made in certain games, etc.  These workouts will take the better part of a full day, this allows teams to get a much better feel for the player beyond what they see on film and at combine drills.  

[DawgX]

Assuming we don't sign Cousins, you take the QB at #1. I'd go with Darnold, but I'd be cool with Rosen and I wouldn't even hate Mayfield. Then at #4, you take Barkley if he's available. If not, try to trade down. And if that's not an option, then I suppose you go with Chubb or Fitzpatrick.

The only way you pass on a QB at #1 and take one at #4 is if you like Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield all equally. Otherwise, just take your top QB at #1.

It should be an easy decision. But this is the Browns we're talking about, so they could easily f it up.

Now, if they do somehow sign Cousins, then you either take Barkley at #1 or trade down to the highest bidder. But I find it rather unlikely that they sign Cousins.

[CWood21]

On 2/2/2018 at 12:43 PM, EliteTexan80 said:

I actually like Rosen more, but I'm also thinking of which guy is going to revamp that locker room culture. I personally like his attitude, but could see that also backfire in a room that needs a steady presence. I can see Rosen really fanning a fire of discontent if things go south early on, and that devouring this franchise entirely.

Honestly? If we're drafting on the basis of "who is going to fix the culture" then I'm going Baker Mayfield. He's got a chip on his shoulder as a former walk on, turned transfer, turned phenom - and he'd be the type of guy that Browns players would rally around, to hell and back. He wouldn't "embrace the suck" as other franchise players have in Cleveland, and demand others follow his lead.

Honestly, you're not going to revamp that culture overnight.  It's going to take sometime, and Rosen has the better pure arm talent.  In an ideal scenario, you bring in a veteran QB and let Rosen/Darnold/Allen sit learning the nuances of the position and the correct habits.  Like you said, Baker Mayfield is probably the "best" at changing the culture of that locker room, but he's also got more questions than the others.  Sam Darnold is probably the happy medium between the three, but I'm not sure the upside is there like some think there is.

[CWood21]

On 1/31/2018 at 3:57 PM, onejayhawk said:

The Browns own three paired picks--the 1st and 4th picks, 1st and 3rd picks of round 2, next to last pick in round 2 and first of round 3. Numerically it is (1, 4), (33, 36), (63, 65). Given the unusual nature of the layout, how should the best approach this draft? 

• Pick a QB with #1 only if they think one QB is far above the rest.
• Get the very best player, regardless of position. 
• If your favorite QB is not among the top 3, consider drafting 2-3 lower tier QB.
• Build the future around picks 3-6. Use the first round for instant starters. 

How would you strategize? What needs would you set aside and hope a deep pick will help? What is the priority?

J

My path for the Browns is pretty straight-forward.  Find the best "veteran" QB in FA whose willing to be the starter this year, and mentor your franchise QB.  Adding Alex Smith would have been ideal, but the price is too high.  If Sam Bradford's knees weren't shot, he'd probably be the ideal guy.  If you don't like the guys in FA, Nick Foles wouldn't be a bad add to have as your temporary starting QB.  Otherwise, guys like Josh McCown, Drew Stanton, or Mark Sanchez are possibilities.  With the 1st overall pick, you take your franchise QB whether that be Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or Baker Mayfield.  Personally, for me that's Josh Rosen but I can understand any of those four.  At 4th overall, unless you have a blue chip prospect available (and I think Bradley Chubb is the only non-QB that would fit in that category) you shop that pick to a team wanting to jump Denver/New York.  You're either dropping down with New York (whose jumping ahead of Denver to select their QB) or Arizona.  Let's assume you're moving down with Arizona.  Take BPA at 15, whether it be a LT or a defensive player.  33 is a prime trade-down spot, so I'd hold onto it and if one of your top players drops into that late 1st round range dangle your 36th and 65th picks to move back up.  You can always recoup your picks via another trade down.

So here's my "ideal" draft.

#1 - Josh Rosen [QB; UCLA]
#4 - Traded to Arizona (4th overall for #15, #79, 2019 1st, and 2019 3rd)
#15 - Best LT/DEF prospect (let's say Denzel Ward)
#33 - Trade down
#36 - BPA

[onejayhawk]

22 hours ago, DawgX said:

Assuming we don't sign Cousins, you take the QB at #1. I'd go with Darnold, but I'd be cool with Rosen and I wouldn't even hate Mayfield. Then at #4, you take Barkley if he's available. If not, try to trade down. And if that's not an option, then I suppose you go with Chubb or Fitzpatrick.

The only way you pass on a QB at #1 and take one at #4 is if you like Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield all equally. Otherwise, just take your top QB at #1.

It should be an easy decision. But this is the Browns we're talking about, so they could easily f it up.

Now, if they do somehow sign Cousins, then you either take Barkley at #1 or trade down to the highest bidder. But I find it rather unlikely that they sign Cousins.

If that's the attitude, you take the best player #1 and take your QB #4. You are guaranteed one of them, plus the best player.

J