Chargers Offseason thread

[game3525]

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I'm not really sure where you got that notion that Polian only took high impact positions early in the draft.  His last few drafts, his first pick consisted of RB, OG, WR, RB, S, S, TE and then finally going back to 02 he picked Freeney at DE.  What's been his motto this entire time is picking the player that will make the biggest impact on the team, and getting a guy who has a lower chance of busting (higher floor, with some ceiling).  S is a guy that takes away the ball, as is LB. Gus Bradley has a philosophy of shutting down the pass first, in order to stop the run with extra help.

RB, WR, and TE's are impact positions, they score touchdowns. I am looking at Polian's draft record, he has never taking a safety or guard in the first round. Anyway, I think that you can throw away TT/Polian draft history out the window with this draft. The Chargers have very few weakness and can afford to just take the highest rated player at a position of need. 

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I can see both sides of the coin on this one though.  I could see us not valuing any of the NT's in the first round high, but I also see us valuing the 2nd/3rd round LB's more than the 1st rounders.  I think if Roquan is there, he's the pick without a doubt.  The other guys at I'm not so sure if the team will be high on.  Realistically, I think they're just going to pick the highest rated player on their board at S, LB or NT and be done with it.  If Derwin/Roquan are there, I fully expect them to be the pick, but that seems less likely.

Yeah, it seems unlikely that James and Smith will be there at 17. However, everyone thought Hooker would go top 10 last year and he fell to 15. 

[Duffman57]

28 minutes ago, game3525 said:

RB, WR, and TE's are impact positions, they score touchdowns. I am looking at Polian's draft record, he has never taking a safety or guard in the first round. Anyway, I think that you can throw away TT/Polian draft history out the window with this draft. The Chargers have very few weakness and can afford to just take the highest rated player at a position of need. 

Yeah, it seems unlikely that James and Smith will be there at 17. However, everyone thought Hooker would go top 10 last year and he fell to 15. 

Marlon Jackson played a lot of S for them. Bob Sanders was an early 2nd rounder at S.  But I guess you're right off a technicality.  His first pick as a GM was a OG (Traik Glenn) 19th overall, Mike Pollack was their first pick in the draft in '08 but wasn't a 1st rounder.  I was just going off of first picks in the draft, as there were 3-4 years he didn't have a 1st round pick.

I don't buy anything the media was saying, Hooker went right about where he should've went.  S's just don't go high unless they're do it all types, and that's what James brings.  Hooker had big deficiencies in his game as a prospect.

[Dr LBC]

On 4/21/2018 at 9:18 AM, game3525 said:

True, however Polian did draft a LB with a first round pick in 2000.

Anyway,  you are right about TT following the Polian model of taking guys who score touchdowns and take away the ball. However, our roster is fairly set at those positions. So this is why it is important to look at TT's other big tendency (drafting for need). The biggest weakness on the roster is ILB. The interior is weak as well, but what they need there is a run-stuffer to spell Mebane, who played way too many snaps last year. Guys like that can be had on day two or three.

It also ignores that Telesco has invested two 2nd round picks, including one where he went and traded up to go get the guy earlier in the 2nd on ILB's - that guy just was, unfortunately, Mant'i Te'o.  IMO if he's willing to trade up in the 2nd to draft the position, you can't say he downgrades the priority of the position, just that that year (and it was plain to see why in the year he drafted Fluker in the 1st even if that was a forced specific selection - still think they were caught totally unawares by Lane Johnson going as early as he did) he saw a more glaring positional-need.  I believe they even said post-draft that year that they had a 1st round grade on Te'o which was why the felt solid in trading up in the 2nd to go get him.

[BoltsFan937]

I got it from Polians mouth, he says it (or at least used to) all the time on Sirius NFL radio.  Maybe it changes the farther back in the first round you get?  Maybe when you're picking 25-32 and there's only 16 first rounders and you have the same grade on guys, you take the guy at a position of need?  I've heard him say it a lot though.  

A lot of talk about the Colts and Roquan Smith and also the Raiders and possible Miami. I seriously doubt he makes it to us but you never know.   James has an outside chance but his slide needs to coincide with Minkah Fitzpatrick. If Minkah goes early, then James will go soon after.   I really feel like if James or Smith get close (Starting with Washington at 13) and it only costs us a couple Day three picks (like the Melvin Gordon trade), I think we'll trade up.  But only for those two guys and maybe Fitzpatrick.  If those guys are gone early, I think we stay put

[Duffman57]

38 minutes ago, The LBC said:

It also ignores that Telesco has invested two 2nd round picks, including one where he went and traded up to go get the guy earlier in the 2nd on ILB's - that guy just was, unfortunately, Mant'i Te'o.  IMO if he's willing to trade up in the 2nd to draft the position, you can't say he downgrades the priority of the position, just that that year (and it was plain to see why in the year he drafted Fluker in the 1st even if that was a forced specific selection - still think they were caught totally unawares by Lane Johnson going as early as he did) he saw a more glaring positional-need.  I believe they even said post-draft that year that they had a 1st round grade on Te'o which was why the felt solid in trading up in the 2nd to go get him.

I think one of the best things that TT does as a GM is getting guys that fit their coaches scheme, which can be very good or a huge problem based on your coaches.  Joe D' was our OL coach at the time, and he loves big, long, strong OT's with length.  Fluker fits his mold perfectly, but it seems as though his problem was almost 100% mental, he just didn't have the reaction and ability to read/pick up blitzes and stunts.  Jeff Davidson was just a nightmare of an OL coach, everywhere he goes, the awareness and ability in pass pro falls off a cliff.

Pagano's ILB's were instincts over everything. Wade Phillips has that sort of mentality too.  Te'o read and got to a lot of plays, but 1) he wasn't kept clean enough to really make a difference and 2) he ended up being WAY softer than he needed to be.

I think for a while TT's biggest flaws was investing in "nice guys" to the point where he neglected that they have to flip a switch on the football field, and none of the guys he drafted had that.

And then all of a sudden....you change coaches, and some of the scheme needs are VASTLY different, and you don't have a place for those guys anymore (particularly Fluker and Meyer last year, where he was the polar opposite of a scheme fit, same with Franklin, King etc).  Bradley has done a good job of adjusting to the talent we have, and Whiz is on his way to doing that.  I think we're in a good position where we're really close and we need 1-3 more guys that are just really solid scheme fits, along with some depth and we should be in the top tier of teams.  Especially if Boston comes back, that makes it really easy IMO. While he's not a star, he's a very solid player who will play good enough to get us where we want to be.  I think finding the right guys at NT and LB is really all we need to do, then after that its about finding role players.  An explosive RB with pass catching/return ability, a 3rd edge rusher who can pick up a sack here and there when Bosa/Ingram are on the same side. Maybe a pass catching TE if Gates decides to retire, and potentially another utility OL, though I like what we have there in Tevi/Schofield/Pulley (potentially a swing T if they don't like Tevi as much as I think they do).

[Dr LBC]

23 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I got it from Polians mouth, he says it (or at least used to) all the time on Sirius NFL radio.  Maybe it changes the farther back in the first round you get?  Maybe when you're picking 25-32 and there's only 16 first rounders and you have the same grade on guys, you take the guy at a position of need?  I've heard him say it a lot though.  

A lot of talk about the Colts and Roquan Smith and also the Raiders and possible Miami. I seriously doubt he makes it to us but you never know.   James has an outside chance but his slide needs to coincide with Minkah Fitzpatrick. If Minkah goes early, then James will go soon after.   I really feel like if James or Smith get close (Starting with Washington at 13) and it only costs us a couple Day three picks (like the Melvin Gordon trade), I think we'll trade up.  But only for those two guys and maybe Fitzpatrick.  If those guys are gone early, I think we stay put

I mean, there's really only 16 or so first rounders every year.  And I'm not kidding.  That's pretty much the average.

[BoltsFan937]

14 minutes ago, The LBC said:

I mean, there's really only 16 or so first rounders every year.  And I'm not kidding.  That's pretty much the average.

I gotcha.  Maybe Polian is assuming that you don't totally eschew talent for positional value.  That is if the choice is between the 5th tackle on the board in the first or the number 1 safety, you take the safety.  That's common sense.  But if you're at the top end of the first and you can choose between the #1 Tackle and the #1 safety, you take the tackle.  I know that's not mind blowing stuff, but I'm sure there's some flexibility in his "rules" is all I'm saying.  In this draft, it would not surprise me if a McGlinchey or Miller (and I'm not advocating this) got the nod over a Rashaan Evans or even Vea or Payne if they're on the board.  

I also wanna point out that I think these players don't have a long term future with the Chargers and could be traded or cut outright  either this offseason or next.  

Verrett

Benjamin

Barksdale

Tyrell Williams

Point this out only because I could see a possible WR or TE selection in the 2nd if the value is right.  Why TE?  Because we can put Hunter in the slot.  Also a guy like Christian Kirk would make sense as a replacement for Benjamin and a kick returner.  I also don't think it's crazy if Smith, James, Vea, Payne are off the board - the selection could be cornerback. 

 

[BoltsFan937]

Night before the draft, here's how I see our pick going at 17.  I think these 9 guys are guaranteed to go before us:

Allen/Rosen/Mayfield/Darnold/Jackson/Ward/Nelson/Chubb/Barkley 

These are the guys I think are preferable finalists for our pick.  And if on the board will be our pick:

James/Fitzpatrick/Vea/Payne/Smith/Edmunds 

That's  six guys with 7 picks in front.  Basically to land one of those guys we're hoping for 2 of these guys to go ahead of us...

McGlinchey/Miller/Alexander/Davenport/Landry/ Ridley/Moore/Vander Esch

If that doesn't happen and one of our preferred 6 doesn't fall, I feel like the pick will come from this pool

McGlinchey/Miller/Evans/Vander Esch/Taven Bryan

 

[Neutral2]

I'm not sure that pick rules out re-signing Tre Boston...

[BoltsFan937]

45 minutes ago, Neutral2 said:

I'm not sure that pick rules out re-signing Tre Boston...

Boston's a memory

[Neutral2]

18 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Boston's a memory

Are they going to play Derwin James as the deep safety?

[game3525]

39 minutes ago, Neutral2 said:

Are they going to play Derwin James as the deep safety?

Yeah, It feels like James is Phillips replacement not Boston's. 

[Leoric]

1 hour ago, Neutral2 said:

Are they going to play Derwin James as the deep safety?

Well the human miss isn’t going to do it. 

[Dr LBC]

1 hour ago, game3525 said:

Yeah, It feels like James is Phillips replacement not Boston's. 

You guys remember that Bradley runs a ton of Cover-3 right?  Basically Derwin will be the safety that leaves the field the least and Bradley's going to be able to move him, Addae, King, and Jenkins (who I think was drafted as the long-term replacement to Addae - whose on the second year of what was essentially a two-year extension when you look at structure) like chess pieces.  We'll probably see Derwin playing high, being brought down into the box, and possibly even dropped down into some WILL LB and nickel-backer.  Basically, he's going to eat up all of Phillips' snaps and probably into some of Emanuel's.

[Leoric]

8 hours ago, The LBC said:

You guys remember that Bradley runs a ton of Cover-3 right?  Basically Derwin will be the safety that leaves the field the least and Bradley's going to be able to move him, Addae, King, and Jenkins (who I think was drafted as the long-term replacement to Addae - whose on the second year of what was essentially a two-year extension when you look at structure) like chess pieces.  We'll probably see Derwin playing high, being brought down into the box, and possibly even dropped down into some WILL LB and nickel-backer.  Basically, he's going to eat up all of Phillips' snaps and probably into some of Emanuel's.

So Addae is still on the field? Way to ruin draft day for me.