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2017 Cornerback Review Part 7: Patrick Peterson


RandyMossIsBoss

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Preface

This season I have been tracking some of the top CBs in football. Using coaches film, I look at every single pass play the CB was involved in, and determine whether or not they did their job in coverage. This project was inspired by Cian Fahey (I think he is a BR writer/draftnik now?) who did a similar project a few years back, as he found that even the advanced targets and catches CB metrics many sites began putting out did not tell the whole story. Who were they covering? Was it actually their fault? Were they benefiting from poor QB play?

 

A couple of notes about my process:

For every eligible pass play, a CB either receives a "Success", "Shutdown" or "Failure" if he's in man coverage, or a "Good", "Great" or "Poor" if he's in zone. This is fairly subjective by its' nature, but I obviously try my best to be consistent. I do take into account situations, a CB is not going to get a "Failure" if the QB has 7 seconds to throw and hits the WR for a 10 yard gain who comes running back towards the QB after finishing his route. Letting up a 9 yard curl on 3rd & 10 is not a failure in the 1st quarter, but 4 down territory in the 4th quarter? It would be. Hopefully you get the gist. 

Man  
Failure: CB gets beat by the WR, in other words, the WR gets in position where a completion can be reasonably expected to occur. Whether it does or not is irrelevant.
Success:

WR is able to run most, if not all, of his route but is unable to achieve a position where a completion can be reasonably expected to occur.

Shutdown: WR is able to run his entire route, but the CB remains in a position throughout where a completion would be next to impossible to occur.
   
Zone  
Poor: CB leaves his zone open long enough that a completion could be reasonably expected to occur, or if CB is simply beat by WR in his zone.
Good: CB does his job, covers his zone, and prevents any good looks from occuring in his zone.
Great: Varies. Generally if multiple WRs cross into the CBs zone, aka it's a difficult play for the CB, but he holds it down, or if the CB shuts down the WR entering his zone.

 

 

Ah, speaking of man and zone coverage, that is another tricky part of all of this. I am not a football expert, and even if I was, I would not be able to truly know what a CB's responsibility on any given play was without seeing the playcall. Fortunately when it comes to man coverage, their responsibility is blatant, but it becomes a lot murkier in zone. All I can say is I try my best and look at the context of any given play, but when it comes to zone, those are the numbers I have the least confidence in. For some teams (Jaguars) who play plenty of man and zone, even determining whether that CB is playing man or zone can be tricky. For other teams (Vikings), it is very clear from the get go what type of coverage they're running. Personally I use a couple of cues to determine what coverage I believe a CB is in: hip direction, where the CB is looking, and what the rest of the defense is doing.

 

 

I mentioned eligible pass plays earlier, let me elaborate. I look at every pass play, but I don't judge the following pass plays

  • Designed screen.
  • Designed quick passes. You can often tell if a QB is making 1, or no, reads after the snap. You see it a lot on goal line fades, are in the flat to the HB if the QB identified a hole pre-snap. I'm not crediting a CB for good coverage when the ball got out in 1 second and the QB didn't even look the way of the CB, UNLESS the CB's man is the target on that play, as then I am judging your coverage with the ball in the air.
  • Zone coverage where all pass catchers converge to the opposite side of the field. 

 

With that out of the way, let's get to the juicy stuff, the stuff that I think people will find more value in and are more interested by: The charting stats. I've recorded every reception given up, which entails who the WR was, the down distance and quarter, and the general route ran (I go with "general" because WRs do not run their routes as textbook as in Madden!) I am very confident in the accuracy and relevance of this charting data, as there is very little subjectivity, especially when it comes to man coverage, as opposed to the success/fail data which involves more subjectivity.

 

I have already looked at Rhodes, Lattimore and Ramsey. Currently working on White from the Bills and Mills from the Eagles (I wanted to look at a CB who is not considered great). For the first guy we'll look at, I'm going with Rhodes, as he was the easiest to chart and most enjoyable.

 

 

Xavier Rhodes

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--neUcBs6Sa87GKNa8

From their second game, and until the end of the season, the Vikings put Rhodes on any notable WRs and had him follow them for over 3/4ths of the game. Rhodes played almost exclusively man coverage, and lot of press, and in my opinion did a tremendous job. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, AJ Green, all shadowed, and arguably shut down, by Rhodes in 2017. He is an extremely physical, and handsy, CB (definitely gets away with his fair share of holds but nothing egregious). Very quick athlete, when WRs make their break Rhodes seems to just snap himself towards them without missing a beat. Rhodes is definitely at his best when he is up on the line and in position to jam WRs, as it not only lets him get extra physical and mess up their break, but it lets him get into trail technique which he does very well playing. Rhodes makes it clear as day what coverage he is playing, which made my job easier. If he's in zones, he'll have his hips towards the QB pre-snap, if he's in man, he'll be squared up against his WR (and often wrapping his arms around each other). While I've only looked at 3 CBs, I already have a hard time imagining there being any corner play much better than this. 

 

Notable Takeaways:

  • vs Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, AJ Green (5 games)
    • Allowed just 19 catches on 38 targets for 210 yards. That is an average of 3.8 receptions and 42 yards per game given up in his meetings with who were perhaps the 5 best healthy WRs in the NFL this season.
  • Allowed a passer rating of just 70.4 while in man coverage. Impressive considering he was more often than not covering the opposing team's best WR.

 

 

Jalen Ramsey

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ndja9fFuwfqq9M5I

The Jaguars play a ton of cover 3, and while Ramsey can certainly play zone, I think he is best served in man coverage. Almost every time he got the opportunity to play press man, the WR failed to get any separation, especially on vertical routes. Due to their use of zone, and the fact that they have 2 great corners, Ramsey just stayed on the left side more often than not, but he was given shadow duties many times. Sometimes during key drives down the stretch Ramsey would follow around the opposing #1. It was not always easy to determine what coverage Ramsey was in, and all too often he was asked to play off the WR which doesn't mesh well with this whole system I'm using, making for a lot of judgement calls. Hard to outrun, but susceptible to the double move form shiftier WRs. 

Notable Takeaways:

  • Only 1 accepted penalty called on him, and it was in the final game of the season. I recall he was also flagged on a TD he let up to AB, which was declined. Considering how physical he is, that is impressive.
  • Was directly responsible for 26 incompletions. 
  • QBs had a 54.9 passer rating when throwing to WRs he covered.

 

 

Marshon Lattimore

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ncxxt40gJ84hvoBA

Lattimore is just a rookie but already one of league's top flight CBs. Excellent mix of athleticism and size/physicality helped him to seamlessly transition to the NFL at a position that historically has a steep learning curve. On top of being a rookie he dealt with some injuries. He initially stayed on the right side of the field and played more conservative coverage, but by the end of the year he was tasked with following around opposing top WRs and playing a ton of press man. Not quite as explosive as Ramsey or as fluid as Rhodes, makes up for it by already having a knack for reading routes right before they unfold.

Notable Takeaways:

  • No TDs allowed in man coverage. Only 2 TDs allowed overall, 1 of which, that was allowed to Rudolph in week 1, could be argued was not Lattimore's fault.
  • Prior to ankle injury, allowed just 14 catches for 126 yards over 8 games and 245 cover snaps. Upon returning, he allowed 22 catches for 373 yards over 6 games and 198 cover snaps. Ankle injury could have played a role, as he did appear a bit flat footed, but also worth noting that in all but 1 of those final 6 games he followed opposing top WRs, which included following Julio twice.

 

 

Tre'Davious White

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQPcneSzGPHZuAL4

Another rookie phenom, White brings great ball skills and positioning to the table. Unlike the other CBs looked at thus far, White was by and large a zone cornerback in 2018. The Bills primarily played basic cover 2 and cover 4, with White manning the left side and rarely moving. He did a great job in his role, but it was pretty limited as he was essentially asked to simply back pedal and occupy space, more or less, and hope the pass rush could force an errant throw. Got more comfortable in his role as the year went on and rarely had miscommunications or missed assignments in zone. Probably made his zone coverage look easier than it was. Can be physical, and lined up across from TEs later in the season on occasion, despite his slender frame. 

Notable Takeaways:

  • Faulted for only 13 catches for 193 yards and 0 TDs, while grabbing 3 INTs and drawing 0 flags in final 8 games (not including blizzard game).
  • Over 60% of counted coverage snaps were in zone.
  • Good tackler, allowed just 3.5 YAC per catch allowed.

 

 

Marcus Peters

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQZnDdB48E9cI2v0

One of the trickiest CBs to track yet as his stance in man and zone coverage appeared to be the same and he always tended to have his eye on the QB (normally tell-tale sign of zone) even in what I could only deduce were man situations (no safety help, other CBs playing clear man, etc.). Peters sets himself apart from the other CBs as an extraordinary playmaker, even on routine tackles he is going for the rip more often than not. QBs often overthrew his targets in what I assume were attempts to throw a ball in a place where only the WR could catch it out of fear of Peters. He generally gave his man an 8+ yard cushon, although as the season winded down he was lining up right off the LOS more and more. Regardless of how he lined up, Peters often immediately bailed and would start back pedaling off the snap, letting the WR reach him or even get a step on him, before entering a trail technique. I would say this is all just part of his game as playmaking CB constantly looking to bait the QB. There were only a handful of plays where he jumped routes he shouldn't have and could have allowed major gains, and only a few actually came to be. Chiefs ran a ton of cover 1, and surprisingly I would say the single high safety shaded toward Peters' side more often than not, but honestly I did not track that and could be wrong; though I will say at the very least he certainly wasn't being left on an island.

Notable Takeaways:

  • Allowed opposing passer rating of 44.8, lowest recorded yet.
  • Lined up almost exclusively at LCB on plays I counted.
  • Allowed just 1 TD and picked off 5 passes in final 10 games. 

 

 

Kendall Fuller

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQr_1yHZm3N-NReX

Our first slot CB. Fuller played pretty much exclusively in the slot as CB on nickel and dime packages. That being said I don't doubt that he could play as an outside CB. He knows how to use the boundaries, is physical, and has adequate size. Now he's not a special athlete or anything, and most of the routes he covered were short to intermediate, so there could be valid concerns leaving him to cover the deeper routes run by outside WRs. Anyway, Fuller is incredibly consistent, that's the one thing that jumped out to me. His stance, footwork, what he reacts to and when. His zone discipline is great, granted he often had a lot more fellow defenders around him than say an outside CB has in zone. He made it look easy keeping WRs in check, as in there wasn't a lot of flash, but QBs simply couldn't connect with their slot guys much due to Fuller. I like to think the toughest part of playing the slot is the fact that the WR can break full speed left or right and have an open field in front of them, that's tough to stop when you can only really react, but Fuller does a good job at taking away this inherent advantage by welcoming contact, and sometimes that meant WRs flat out running into him, which slows the WR down and gives him extra time to react. Became pretty monotonous to watch at times because there was just so little action often; whether that is just the nature of slot CB, or Fuller's excellency, is TBD. 

Notable Takeaways:

  • Allowed opposing passer rating of 38.2, lowest recorded yet.
  • Lined up almost exclusively as a slot corner, and played less snaps than other CBs looked at.
  • Didn't come close to allowing a single TD until week 17.

 

 

Patrick Peterson

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQ2TxrT8xxezpd-5

Patrick Peterson carried the title of elite CB for several years, and still does to many, yet he hasn't been named to an all-pro team in 2 years. As a result I think his reputation as an elite CB has somewhat started to slip, but I am here to tell you PP is still a top tier CB, no doubt in my mind. Like Rhodes, Peterson followed around opposing #1 WRs, and perhaps you could say more so than Rhodes as PP followed WRs to the slot more often and appears more comfortable there. Speaking of Rhodes, they are similar CBs in that they are very physical and generally win or lose their man matchups within the WR's first few steps. If PP gets his jam on you, it's over. PP is stronger and faster than most of the WRs he faces, and he knows it, so plays with a fittingly aggressive coverage style. Elite press corner. When in off man, PP tends to be a little stiff but his recovery speed, as well as the fear QBs clearly have of him, allows him to still be a force. Many times QBs just didn't look his way for long stretches. Unfortunately, unlike Rhodes, PP was forced to play plenty of zone and the Cards generally employed him in pretty soft deep zones, which don't play to his strengths and frankly limit the amount of info I can obtain. That being said, PP not only followed #1 WRs, but he kept them in check for the most part, which leads me to claim he is still one of the, if not thee, top CBs in the league. He is nearing that age where he will lose a step, and the Cards' new coach used more zone than anyone else as DC in Carolina in 2017, so we may be about to see the decline, but we haven't seen it yet.

Notable Takeaways:

  • Followed opposing #1 WRs in 11 of 15 games. Allowed just 296 yards and 19 catches on the season, just 13 catches in man. 
  • 42 coverage snaps in the slot, but I saw him line up there close to 100 times.
  • His 21 snaps per coverage target is by far the highest among CBs looked at, a testament to his reputation among QBs; his 0.74 yards per coverage snap is by far the best among outside CBs looked at, and his 8.2 cover snaps per catch allowed is the best (albeit by a smaller margin) among CBs looked at.
  • Week 15 against the Titans was not factored in as the coaches film for that game is all scrambled. 

 

 

 

Comparisons: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjvqihcNb--ngQv08ScSI3l5X_zD

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Nice work.

These numbers would be a bit more clear if you also factored in how many of these plays occurred with and without a pass rush. It's more time consuming but it paints a much clearer picture, imo. Personally, I like to use the median average of time the QB has form snap-to-throw in a given season as a barometer. 

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1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Nice work.

These numbers would be a bit more clear if you also factored in how many of these plays occurred with and without a pass rush. It's more time consuming but it paints a much clearer picture, imo. Personally, I like to use the median average of time the QB has form snap-to-throw in a given season as a barometer. 

What do you mean about without a pass rush? Like no blitz?

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27 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

What do you mean about without a pass rush? Like no blitz?

Not necessarily only without a blitz but just the pass rush in general on plays where the QB is under pressure.

Because a CB shouldn't get credit on plays where a pass rush gets to the QB in under the alotted time(3.3 seconds for example) that forces an errant pass of any sort. For example; a QB being pressured before he even gets a chance to set his feet on a 3,5 or 7 step drop. Or gets flushed out of the pocket and is forced to throw on the run &/or throw across his body(save for designed plays of course).

Now of course there are some instances where you can credit both the pass rush and have good coverage on the same play but these kind of plays don't occur all that often.

The same goes for a pass rush on coverage sacks/pressures. I don't give credit to a pass rusher that gets pressure or a sack on a QB after say 4 seconds for example because that's on the coverage, not the pass rusher. Unless of course, again, there is instant pressure that forces the QB out of the pocket and the sack just simply takes longer to develop.

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18 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Nice work.

These numbers would be a bit more clear if you also factored in how many of these plays occurred with and without a pass rush. It's more time consuming but it paints a much clearer picture, imo. Personally, I like to use the median average of time the QB has form snap-to-throw in a given season as a barometer. 

Like time the QB has to throw? I agree that would definitely paint a clearer picture, unfortunately just too much of a hassle as I'd have to record it in an entirely different manner. Granted I do factor it in, the longer a QB has to throw, the more lenient I am on a CB, and on plays where the QB has so little time that the WR didn't get to run his route I won't count it, but yeah that's a bit fuzzy. 

 

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On 2/3/2018 at 12:31 AM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Ah, speaking of man and zone coverage, that is another tricky part of all of this. I am not a football expert, and even if I was, I would not be able to truly know what a CB's responsibility on any given play was without seeing the playcall. Fortunately when it comes to man coverage, their responsibility is blatant, but it becomes a lot murkier in zone. All I can say is I try my best and look at the context of any given play, but when it comes to zone, those are the numbers I have the least confidence in. For some teams (Jaguars) who play plenty of man and zone, even determining whether that CB is playing man or zone can be tricky. For other teams (Vikings), it is very clear from the get go what type of coverage they're running. Personally I use a couple of cues to determine what coverage I believe a CB is in: hip direction, where the CB is looking, and what the rest of the defense is doing.

Bless your heart for attempting this, but if you can't ID the basics, how in the world did you determine that you could pull this project off with any accuracy or competency?

Here's just a few things you need to have a strong grasp on to pull this off: The ability to ID all coverages and understand their purpose, strengths, and weakness; besides man and zone, you also need to ID and know pattern match rules as well as it is a very popular coverage now in the NFL; understanding of DB techniques, responsibilities in specific coverages and those around him; you also need to know offensive concepts and progression reads to understand what the offense is trying to do with the ball and how they are trying to manipulate the defense. There's way more to it than simply trying to figure out whether it's man or zone. Sorry to crap on your work, but I just don't see how this can be taken seriously after you've admitted your not even sure what you're watching.

 

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10 hours ago, Carmen Cygni said:

Bless your heart for attempting this, but if you can't ID the basics, how in the world did you determine that you could pull this project off with any accuracy or competency?

Here's just a few things you need to have a strong grasp on to pull this off: The ability to ID all coverages and understand their purpose, strengths, and weakness; besides man and zone, you also need to ID and know pattern match rules as well as it is a very popular coverage now in the NFL; understanding of DB techniques, responsibilities in specific coverages and those around him; you also need to know offensive concepts and progression reads to understand what the offense is trying to do with the ball and how they are trying to manipulate the defense. There's way more to it than simply trying to figure out whether it's man or zone. Sorry to crap on your work, but I just don't see how this can be taken seriously after you've admitted your not even sure what you're watching.

 

 

Well I think you've completely misinterpreted that point of that paragraph, it was not to say I have no idea what I'm watching and don't have knowledge of it or try to decipher all of it (though I'd argue if I could do that infallibly without seeing playcalls I'd belong in the NFL), it's just a bit of a disclaimer, in contrast to say a PFF who do seem to present themselves as fact. More importantly, I think there is value even if I have no idea what I'm watching, because I am still making note of catches that I believe a CB were responsible for. Those interested can then use my data to go look at the catches in question, and decide for themselves, rather than sift through an entire game. "Jalen Ramsey let up a 40 yard gain TD on a go route against the Browns in the 4th quarter? Let me go see for myself if he really screwed up."

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On 2/8/2018 at 12:33 AM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Like time the QB has to throw? I agree that would definitely paint a clearer picture, unfortunately just too much of a hassle as I'd have to record it in an entirely different manner. Granted I do factor it in, the longer a QB has to throw, the more lenient I am on a CB, and on plays where the QB has so little time that the WR didn't get to run his route I won't count it, but yeah that's a bit fuzzy. 

 

Yes, that's that I was talking about. It can be a hassle and very time consuming so I can't blame you for not including it in it's entirety, but it is nice to know that you do atleast take it into consideration though, nonetheless. 

When I was doing this type of data "work" for a certain group/company I would first scrape every game off the all-22(which was a hassle itself) so that I could play them using VLC player, and then I would use a stop watch overlay that I created using a simple callback that would sync the video file(or game) with the time frame of each throw so that I could get an accurate timing of each snap and release. This saved me a HOURS of time. 

Unfortunately, gamepass made this method ALOT harder this year by streaming each play individually and adding an overlay instead of a constant continuous playback like before. So now you would have to scrape each play separately to do it this way and EFF that! 

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