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Knockin' on Valhalla's Door


Klomp

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19 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

You change a lot of dynamics with a big move like that. I believe its called the Butterfly Effect.

umm... no.

it is impossible to say that a player moving to another team has any effect on whether they are injured or would have been if they had not moved. the dynamics are not affected in reality, probability does not see it has a strengthening of any odds.

and the definition of the Butterfly Effect is that SMALL events can make for a big change down the line, theoretically. but in your statement you called the move a BIG effect.

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2 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Its possible that instead of him being in Cincinnati and rather in Minnesota, he may have not gotten injured.

You change a lot of dynamics with a big move like that. I believe its called the Butterfly Effect.

I am willing to concede that the same injury may not have happened in his training had he not signed with the Bengals. It may not have.

That does not change, however, that I would rather take a small ding to the compensatory formula than have a player signed to a big contract that is unable to play. It also does not change the fact that I was already happy that the team didn't try to compete with that offer from Cincinnati.

It is true that it would be better if the team gets a third round pick out of Waynes in the formula instead of a fourth round pick. True enough. Still, that is small potatoes to me in the bigger picture. It is worth noting that is may effect the round Waynes is slotted in at so I have no problem with that.

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2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

umm... no.

it is impossible to say that a player moving to another team has any effect on whether they are injured or would have been if they had not moved. the dynamics are not affected in reality, probability does not see it has a strengthening of any odds.

and the definition of the Butterfly Effect is that SMALL events can make for a big change down the line, theoretically. but in your statement you called the move a BIG effect.

Maybe domino effect works better (although it seems pretty similar)?

My idea is that had Trae Waynes not been at the exact spot at the specific time he was there when he got injured, it is possible that he never gets injured in the first place (or, on the flip side, sustains an injury even worse than what he currently has).

Certainly where we are in space and time has an effect on us.

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Washington released guard Kevin Pamphile on Thursday and cleared another roster spot by waiving tight end Thaddeus Moss with an injury designation. The undrafted free agent and son of Randy Moss will revert to injured reserve if he isn’t claimed.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/21/washington-signs-joshua-garnett-and-david-steinmetz-waives-thaddeus-moss/

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On 8/20/2020 at 6:15 AM, SteelKing728 said:

Its possible that instead of him being in Cincinnati and rather in Minnesota, he may have not gotten injured.

You change a lot of dynamics with a big move like that. I believe its called the Butterfly Effect.

It's not the butterfly effect, but there is a good argument to make that Waynes' injury was the Bengals' fault and wouldn't have happened if he stayed in Minnesota.

The Bengals agreed to sign Waynes to his free agent contract, but refused to pay him his $15M signing bonus until he could come in to the team facility and pass a physical from their doctors (not a 3rd party). That was delayed due to Covid. Waynes' agent understandably advised him not to work out or otherwise risk injury until he got paid. 

So Waynes came to training camp out of football shape and was presumably pushing himself harder in the weight room to make up lost ground when he got hurt. 

Here's an article on the situation: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bengals-trae-waynes-suffers-torn-pectoral-muscle-will-miss-significant-time-in-2020-per-report/

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23 hours ago, Krauser said:

So Waynes came to training camp out of football shape and was presumably pushing himself harder in the weight room to make up lost ground when he got hurt. 

definitely presumptive. for all we know, he had been working out with trainers every day, privately.

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56 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

definitely presumptive. for all we know, he had been working out with trainers every day, privately.

Waynes was working out, but he had to be careful, and he couldn’t do any football drills. It’s not a stretch to think he wasn’t in as good a shape as he otherwise would’ve been, and tried to make up for that after his contract was finally signed and paid. 

This was all reported ahead of time: https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/07/02/coronavirus-trae-waynes-free-agent-contracts

Reading that, it would be no surprise that the player whose agent was telling him to be very careful might hurt himself as soon as he no longer had to restrain himself for fear of losing out on his big contract. 

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