This Is Rival Talk v1.0

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, cannondale said:

You are forgetting the most unlikely part of that 10 team scenario. The Packers have to actually win a game or 6

Unfortunately, that's the cold hard reality.  9 wins probably doesn't get you a Wild Card spot.  

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

So Brees stops the defense from giving up a hail Mary or Ryan Grants killer fumble?

It's amazing you say you can't blame Mac for these things, then blame a QB.

Rodgers had a really bad game that game and the Giants would have defended Brees a whole lot differently.  Yeah, I still think Brees wins that game.  It's a completely different game from start to finish with a different QB, so you can't say you know for sure the Hail Mary or the Grant fumble would have even come into play just like I can't say for a fact Brees would have won.  It's an opinion both ways.

[Pugger]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Over the last 7 years, the average W total for the last wild card spot has 10.1 wins.  Right now, by default we have a de facto tiebreaker because of that tie.   We'd have to win the remaining six games to hit that 10 win mark.

And the only way that is happening is if this team figures out how to win these close games on the road in the next 7 days.  I hate to say it but I'm not all that optimistic we can turn this around.  We'll probably win 4 more but that won't be enough.  

[HeresAGuy]

9 hours ago, Howler said:

Bye bye division. Bye bye playoffs.

You must be new to this Packers fan stuff, it is custom and tradition at this point to rally back to a playoff spot.  It’s probably happened a half dozen times since 2000.  We are very, very good at it, and have made the playoffs rebounding from worse years than this. 

[Malfatron]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Unfortunately, that's the cold hard reality.  9 wins probably doesn't get you a Wild Card spot.  

i think it does in our case.9-6-1 will get in

since we would be above all the other 9 win teams (pending a win over minn)

i dont see 2 wc teams going 10-6 in the nfc

Edited November 19, 2018 by Malfatron

[Striker]

9 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I get the fear.  They look tough going forward.  I'm not scared though.  They have zero draft capital and zero room for free agents.

You cannot sustain success in this league with the same players year to year.

They will seriously disappoint next year.  Maybe not seriously, but slightly, and that second year with no first round pick will cripple them.

Khalil Mack won't stay 27 forever.

^
This is the Bears year. They get a 1st place schedule next season, in theory the Packers pull their heads out of their *****, and teams will see a hurry up slows down that pass rush and will help them exploit a vulnerable secondary. You'd best bet the Rams and Saints will be ready for them this year.

[MacReady]

Mitchell Trubisky against the Buccaneers, Jets and Lions:

929 passing yards, 58 completions, 85 attempts (68%), 10.9 yards per attempt, 309 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

Mitchell Trubisky against everyone else:

1540 yards, 152 completions, 236 attempts (64%), 6.5 yards per attempt, 220 yards per game, 9 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

 

[packfanfb]

12 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Both quarterbacks are doing that tonight.

Trubisky is still the problem in Chicago. Credit to Nagy for dumbing it down as much as he can and using Trubisky's mobility but they guy cannot be trusted to make a big time throw. Chicago's future is still bright for the next few years. They have a SB-ready defense and a lot of play-makers on offense. They'll be a problem in the division for the next few years.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Malfatron said:

i think it does in our case.9-6-1 will get in

since we would be above all the other 9 win teams (pending a win over minn)

i dont see 2 wc teams going 10-6 in the nfc

I appreciate the optimism as much as anyone, but I'm not there yet.  Maybe with a win or two, I might feel better.  The last time a 9 win team made the playoff as one of the Wild Card teams was 2016.  Prior to that, you have to go back to 2008.  In 2008, the Eagles made the playoffs at 9-6-1.  That season, we saw two NFC teams win 12 games, a Wild Card win 11 games, 11 of the 16 teams in the NFC post .500+ records, and we had 3 teams have a winning percentage of .250 or worse.  In 2016, we had one 13 win team (Dallas), a Wild Card win 11 games (Carolina), 9 of 16 teams post .500+ records, and 3 teams with .250 or worse records.  Right now, we've got two teams who should win 12+ games in New Orleans and Los Angeles, no Wild Card teams projected to win 11+ games, 8 of 16 teams with .500+ records, and 2 teams with .250 or worse records.  If a team make the playoffs with 9 wins, it's because the entire conference is a giant pile of meh.

[Howler]

Packers postseason playoffs pct is currently 28%. Expect that paltry number to shrivel down to nothingness if they lose at Minnesota.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Howler

[Malfatron]

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I appreciate the optimism as much as anyone, but I'm not there yet.  Maybe with a win or two, I might feel better.  The last time a 9 win team made the playoff as one of the Wild Card teams was 2016.  Prior to that, you have to go back to 2008.  In 2008, the Eagles made the playoffs at 9-6-1.  That season, we saw two NFC teams win 12 games, a Wild Card win 11 games, 11 of the 16 teams in the NFC post .500+ records, and we had 3 teams have a winning percentage of .250 or worse.  In 2016, we had one 13 win team (Dallas), a Wild Card win 11 games (Carolina), 9 of 16 teams post .500+ records, and 3 teams with .250 or worse records.  Right now, we've got two teams who should win 12+ games in New Orleans and Los Angeles, no Wild Card teams projected to win 11+ games, 8 of 16 teams with .500+ records, and 2 teams with .250 or worse records.  If a team make the playoffs with 9 wins, it's because the entire conference is a giant pile of meh.

while this is true historically, look at the standings now.

the tiebreakers are led by

6-4

5-4-1 

a few 5-5 teams

i abosutely think we need to beat the vikings to make the playoffs, but if we do, we can afford 1 loss

[CWood21]

Just now, Malfatron said:

while this is true historically, look at the standings now.

the tiebreakers are led by

6-4

5-4-1 

a few 5-5 teams

i abosutely think we need to beat the vikings to make the playoffs, but if we do, we can afford 1 loss

Right now, the only team that tiebreakers come into play with is Minnesota.  So unless another team has a tie on their record, anyone who has the same amount of wins Green Bay holds the advantage because of that tie.  If you the Packers lose to the Vikings, you can pretty much kiss the playoffs away.  They'd be 2 games back with 5 games to play, which means the Packers would realistically need to win 3 more games than the Viking to make the tiebreaker irrelevant.

Barring a huge upset, New Orleans and Los Angeles Rams will win the NFC South and West respectively.  New Orleans has a 3 game lead with 6 to play, and Los Angeles has a 4 game lead over the Seahawks.  They're pretty much locked into the playoffs barring an epic collapse.  Right now, Washington has a narrow 1 game lead over Dallas and 2 game lead over Philadelphia, but they just lost Alex Smith to a season-ending injury.  Colt McCoy's career winning percentage is .241, which assuming that holds up means Washington is winning 1-2 more games this year.  Right now, the Bears have a 2 game lead over the Vikings and 3 game lead over the Packers.  But they get to play Detroit, NY Giants, and San Francisco who have a combined 9-21 record, so they're probably going to be penciled in for another 3 wins.  That'd put them at 10-6 and probably a shoe-in for the playoffs.

Dallas at 5-5 has been an average team, but with their remaining games including an Alex Smith-less Redskins, Buccaneers, and Giants as well as the Colts, it's hard to see a scenario in which Dallas doesn't achieve at least 8-8.  Philadelphia at 4-6 needs more help.  They've got the Redskins twice and Giants.  But they've got a divisional game against Dallas that IMO will be the game that decides the NFC East.  They probably sit somewhere between 7 and 9 wins.  Minnesota has a rough remaining schedule with the only "easy" games being Miami and Detroit.  They play the Packers, Patriots, and Seahawks with the latter two being on the road.  I think they come up short in their playoff quest.  Carolina has Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland as their next 3 games, and realistically they could win all 3 of those.  And if they don't win another game, they'd be 9-7.  Atlanta is far back, and they don't have any tiebreakers right now.  They have Baltimore, Green Bay, Arizona, and Tampa Bay so I see 8 wins as their likely ceiling.  Seattle has San Francisco twice, Arizona, and potentially a Kansas City team that could be resting their starters.  They could very well back their way into the playoffs with how soft their schedule is.

TL;DR I've got the projected standings as..

1.) New Orleans Saints
2.) Los Angeles Rams
3.) Chicago Bears
4.) Dallas Cowboys
5.) Carolina Panthers
6.) Seattle Seahawks

[Malfatron]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

TL;DR I've got the projected standings as..

1.) New Orleans Saints
2.) Los Angeles Rams
3.) Chicago Bears
4.) Dallas Cowboys
5.) Carolina Panthers
6.) Seattle Seahawks

i dont see the seahawks going 5-1, so i still believe gb can afford one loss to a nonviking opponent

Edited November 19, 2018 by Malfatron

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

i dont see the seahawks going 5-1, so i still believe gb can afford one loss to a nonviking opponent

Green Bay has to win 5 of their next 6 to hit 9 wins.  For a team who hasn't won a single game on the road, they've got 3 games remaining on the road.  3 of our final 6 games are against divisional foes, two of which will be competing for a playoff spot.  The third (finale against Detroit) would LOVE for an opportunity to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Hell, they already lost to Detroit this year.  Looking at their remaining schedule, the only games I feel confident in the Packers are Week 13 against Arizona and Week 16 at New York.  That's a "worst case" scenario for me where the Packers finish 6-9-1.  Realistically speaking, we're not sweeping our divisional rivals and even that Atlanta game is a toss-up, although I feel much better about that game being in Green Bay as opposed to Atlanta.  The last time the Packers didn't lose a single divisional game was 2011 when they went 15-1.  Realistically speaking, 2-2 is probably a reasonably fair guess.  That'd put the Packers at 8-7-1 which probably falls short of the playoffs.  So the Packers need to win at least 3 of 4 against the Vikings, Falcons, Bears, and Lions to make the playoffs.  For a team who hasn't won a road game yet this season, I'm not optimistic at all.

[HeresAGuy]

4 hours ago, Howler said:

Packers postseason playoffs pct is currently 28%. Expect that paltry number to shrivel down to nothingness if they lose at Minnesota.

0-4?

R-E-L-A-X year?

Rodgers to Cobb deep in Chicago?

8-7-1?

..........superb owl year???

Cardinals catching it in the corner of the end zone to eliminate the Vikings?

 

even if we lost to the vikings last weekend, we have STILL squeeked into the playoffs tighter in at least three of the above occasions.  Redskins and Panthers are careening back down to planet earth, Eagles and Falcons arent good at football anymore, Cowboys arent as good as they think they are.  The threats are the Vikings, Bears, and Seahawks.  Thats. Not. That. Scary.

 

9-6-1 will get us in; one way or the other.