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Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread


keysersoze3421

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On 8/4/2017 at 2:18 PM, holt_bruce81 said:

I've had success over the past few years taking RBs later in the draft, and while I don't want to go into the draft with one particular strategy in mind (I feel you need to let the draft play out) what are some mid-late round RBs you like this year in standard league? I love the Doug Martin/Jacquizz Rodgers combo and the Robert Kelly/Samaje Perine combo. And I know Dougie is out for the first 3 weeks. And I'm actually really high on Ty Montgomery this year, but don't want to snag him up too early, where would you feel comfortable taking him?

Also, if you can't get a top 3 pick to snag what i'm assuming would be one of Bell, Zeke or DJ, where would you want to draft? 4th-6th and snag up Beckham, julio or AB or the last few picks of the 1st round? While I love the 12/13 turn, I feel like this year a top 7 pick is more essential than in years past. 

Love Rodgers and Perine as well.  I like DeAndre Washington, Thomas Rawls, Jamaal Williams, and James Conner (high-value handcuff).  

I think I said this in another, but I want 2 players in the top 19 this year, which means in a 12-team league that I would want to pick 6th or later in the first.  I like Nelson more than I do Jones, and I am pretty high on A.J. Green, so I would think about moving back to 9th and trying to get both.  

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On 8/4/2017 at 2:56 PM, AP_allday2869 said:

Where would you take Jarvis Landry in a PPR? Probably in the top three rounds, wouldn't you?

No, probably 5th.  I'm not planning on drafting him at all this year with the QB situation led by Cutler and his dreadful second-half performance last year.

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On 8/5/2017 at 7:59 PM, The LBC said:

So, said 14-team standard league draft... I just want to say, God bless people that reach for QB's and while doing so leave better QB's on the board.

QB: Andrew Luck (I wasn't planning on drafting one this early, but I got him in the 5th... as the 7th QB taken)

RB: David Johnson

RB: Marshawn Lynch

WR: Amari Cooper

WR: Donte Moncrief

TE: Cameron Brate (Planning on streaming TE's until one hits worth keeping)

WR/RB: Terrance West

WR/TE: Eric Decker

K: Adam Vinatieri

DEF: Arizona

BN: Doug Martin

BN: Adam Thielen

BN: Quincy Enunwa (my first drop if needed - or if the Jets QB situation looks as God awful as expected - but this was a target-volume flier)

I'm ok with it.  I don't like Lynch or Cooper, but you were probably limited in the value sitting there at 28 and 29.  Huge fan of West and Decker as your flexes, and I think the Martin stash is smart.  Have to take Luck there.  I did that last year with Brees at 5.14, and it paid off BIGLY.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze3421 said:

No, probably 5th.  I'm not planning on drafting him at all this year with the QB situation led by Cutler and his dreadful second-half performance last year.

Under Gase, Cutler threw the lowest percentage of short crossing routes in the league (or among the worst 2/3). He's definitely a "sell" candidate when you factor in Miami is unlikely to bring him back with Carroo, Stills, and Parker in the fold.

Thanks @Cadmus for the sourcing as usual.  

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1 hour ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Any particular reason why you love Nelson so much this year?

Yeah, what's not to love?  I'm not too worried about non-soft-tissue injuries, so him missing 2015 with the ACL wasn't a big concern to me.  His finishes in his last 4 full seasons with Rodgers:

2011: WR2 in standard, WR4 in PPR

2013: WR11 in standard, WR13 in PPR

2014: WR2 in standard, WR3 in PPR

2016: WR1 in standard, WR2 in PPR

He's amazingly consistent, and I didn't see any signs of him slowing down last year.  He got even better as the year went along.  You're not going to get 300 yard games like you will from Julio, but you don't get as many duds either.

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4 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

I'm ok with it.  I don't like Lynch or Cooper, but you were probably limited in the value sitting there at 28 and 29.  Huge fan of West and Decker as your flexes, and I think the Martin stash is smart.  Have to take Luck there.  I did that last year with Brees at 5.14, and it paid off BIGLY. 

Realistically I had been hoping for Doug Baldwin to fall to me at 28 and 29, but he fell one pick short.  He was a bit Brandin Cooks-ish last season in that he was either homerun or whiff at about 66% the former to the later, but I figured at least part of that could be chalked up to Wilson playing injured early on in the season.  But I figured I could counterbalance that with an undervalued Michael Crabtree later on.  So what I ended up picking from were where next-best options to who I took were Miller/Hyde/Gore/Ware and Watkins/Pryor/Alshon/Robinson.  Lynch's value to me was the floor presented by Oakland's OL (they'll bend and give Penn a new deal before the season starts, I'd wager) - and even though I expected West to be undervalued, I knew I needed to get two high-floor RB's with where I was picking because I couldn't be certain what the pickings would be later on for me.

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On 8/7/2017 at 1:35 PM, keysersoze3421 said:

Yeah, what's not to love?  I'm not too worried about non-soft-tissue injuries, so him missing 2015 with the ACL wasn't a big concern to me.  His finishes in his last 4 full seasons with Rodgers:

2011: WR2 in standard, WR4 in PPR

2013: WR11 in standard, WR13 in PPR

2014: WR2 in standard, WR3 in PPR

2016: WR1 in standard, WR2 in PPR

He's amazingly consistent, and I didn't see any signs of him slowing down last year.  He got even better as the year went along.  You're not going to get 300 yard games like you will from Julio, but you don't get as many duds either.

+ a year removed from the ACL usually means good things for elite athletes. Nelson's game will age well, too. He's among the best in the red zone and near the sideline, and his slot ability makes him a more lethal Eric Decker. He's a double digit TD candidate every year he's with Green Bay. I can see him in the fold and as a top-10 PPR candidate for the next 3-4 seasons. 

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10 team league, .75 ppr.  Starters:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, DEF, K

Need 10 keepers from this group.  Picking 10th in each round.

QB:  Luck, Big Ben

RB:  David Johnson, Elliott, Riddick, CJA

WR:  Nelson, DT, Landry, Adams, J Matthews, Lockett, Tyrell Williams

TE:  Kelce, Olsen, Fleener

Appreciate the response.  Certainly trying to negotiate some trades for picks.

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10 hours ago, squire12 said:

10 team league, .75 ppr.  Starters:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, DEF, K

Need 10 keepers from this group.  Picking 10th in each round.

QB:  Luck, Big Ben

RB:  David Johnson, Elliott, Riddick, CJA

WR:  Nelson, DT, Landry, Adams, J Matthews, Lockett, Tyrell Williams

TE:  Kelce, Olsen, Fleener

Appreciate the response.  Certainly trying to negotiate some trades for picks.

Luck, Elliott, DJ, Anderson, DT, Nelson, Adams, Tyrell, Kelce, Olsen.

That's for me personally, but I could see the argument for Landry over Tyrell.

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Key:  Did you see this post earlier in the thread?

"I'm used to playing in the standard 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 DEF, 1 K standard scoring leagues.  I recently joined a big money 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, 1 DEF 12 man league, with a short bench - standard scoring.

How would you change your draft strategy, if at all?  I'm thinking QB's and TE's should be given less importance (I usually wait until the late rounds to draft these guys anyway) and I should maybe draft more for upside with the WR and RB positions in the mid-rounds rather than a high floor.  Do you agree?  What else would you change?"

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3 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Key:  Did you see this post earlier in the thread?

"I'm used to playing in the standard 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 DEF, 1 K standard scoring leagues.  I recently joined a big money 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, 1 DEF 12 man league, with a short bench - standard scoring.

How would you change your draft strategy, if at all?  I'm thinking QB's and TE's should be given less importance (I usually wait until the late rounds to draft these guys anyway) and I should maybe draft more for upside with the WR and RB positions in the mid-rounds rather than a high floor.  Do you agree?  What else would you change?"

Hey, sorry, didn't see it.

Yeah, I would definitely go QB and TE late.  I'm probably starting my draft WR-WR unless you're picking at the top of the draft.  If you do get two top WRs, I'm okay waiting until round 5-6 to get another guy, but be prepared for a run on them.

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On 8/3/2017 at 5:39 PM, NcFinest9erFan said:

PPR.  Jordy Nelson or Michael Thomas?

 

Thanks.

Jordy all day, every day.  In PPR, I actually have him above Mike Evans and as the bottom of the tier that Julio and ODB are in.  And I say this as a Thomas owner.

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