Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, keysersoze3421 said:

I wouldn't really move them at all.  I'm not really sold on Watson as an NFL starter.

I'm not all that sold either, but I would think Miller, at least, deserves a slight bump given the fact that he'd be taking hand-offs from a running QB.  That OL is still terrible though...

[HTTRDynasty]

16 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

I think I would still lean towards Baldwin, Cooks and Pryor who are all going in the same range.

I agree.

[keysersoze3421]

Few thoughts on last few pages:

-Zeke's appeal will not result in him missing time late in the season.  His punishment would be deferred to 2018 like Brady's.

-DeMarco Murray's second half "slump" is way overstated.  His weekly finishes in PPR in weeks 9-16: 8, 6, 11, 14, BYE, 17, 11, 46.  That's a median finish of RB11 in PPR, better than Freeman, Ajayi, and Howard.

-I'm still sold on Pryor as a high end WR2 in fantasy based on target volume alone.

-I wouldn't use Jeremy Hill probably, but I would try to avoid the Bengals' backfield the first couple of weeks generally speaking.

[keysersoze3421]

1 minute ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'm not all that sold either, but I would think Miller, at least, deserves a slight bump given the fact that he'd be taking hand-offs from a running QB.  That OL is still terrible though...

I think part of what we saw last year is that Miller thrives on fewer carries rather than more.  I could see fewer touches for better per-touch production, resulting in roughly a net neural outcome.

[keysersoze3421]

37 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

That brings up a good question...what are the best zero-RB strategy RB tag-teams to target?

Hunt-Ware.

Rawls-Lacy.

Kelley-Perine.

Montgomery-Williams.

Ingram-Peterson.

 

 

 

If I'm gonna target a tandem, you need one guy going late.  I would probably avoid Lacy, Kelley, and the Saints' backfield.  I think I'd just look at Rawls, Williams, and Perine around the 10th or later.  Ware is the only guy I'm comfortable with in the 4th or 5th.

[holt_bruce81]

With the uncertainty at the WR position for the Bills, how much Volume do you think Anquan is going to get this year? It might tale off later in the year, but to open the season I can see Tyrod feeding him a lot.  You can pretty much get him for free and he might put up WR3 production this year.  If I can get him in the 13th or 14th round as my #4, I'm super happy. I also really like Ted Ginn and Tyrell Williams for where they're going. 

Any other late round WRs you like this year? Corey Davis? Tyler Lockett?

[SoS]

1 hour ago, sammymvpknight said:

That brings up a good question...what are the best zero-RB strategy RB tag-teams to target?

Hunt-Ware.

Rawls-Lacy.

Kelley-Perine.

Montgomery-Williams.

Ingram-Peterson.

 

 

 

The two most favorable pairings from above would be the Chiefs and Saints tandem. Both duos will play on ball-control offenses (I truly think we see more of that from the Saints this year) and both will be put in positions with a lot of TD opportunity. Not only that, but both duos play in systems that are intent on getting their backs the ball in the passing game. What I love is that you're not wasting draft capital to secure one or the other. We pretty much know that Ware is going to start the season as the starter and Ingram is going to start the season as the starter on their respective teams, so you're not "wasting your position" so to speak, just to acquire a backup. 

Onto the others: 

Lacy/Rawls - One of these guys is going to be a killer value this year if the other goes down, but if both are healthy + CJ Prosise, it's going to be a headache trying to figure out who to play on a weekly basis. Depending on how far Lacy's ADP drops over these next few weeks, it may be worth the investment, but as of right now you're in a situation where you have to draft Lacy in the mid-rounds and he's probably not even going to begin the year as the starter. 

Kelley/Perine - Neither back wows you with their on-field ability. Both guys are pretty much grinders. I'm actually a Rob Kelley fan this year for where you can get him, because I think Perine is struggling so much that he's going to cost himself a lot of opportunities in his first year. The Redskins offense is efficient which should mean high volume for whoever can earn bellcow duties. Only problem is, if these two guys start splitting time, I don't think either is efficient enough on a per touch basis to warrant their draft position. 

Montgomery/Williams - Montgomery is almost going so early that it's hard for me to call it zero-RB. I actually like this combo but I also foresee a situation where both guys siphon valuable touches away from one another. Not to mention, Aaron Jones isn't just going away. 

[keysersoze3421]

20 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

With the uncertainty at the WR position for the Bills, how much Volume do you think Anquan is going to get this year? It might tale off later in the year, but to open the season I can see Tyrod feeding him a lot.  You can pretty much get him for free and he might put up WR3 production this year.  If I can get him in the 13th or 14th round as my #4, I'm super happy. I also really like Ted Ginn and Tyrell Williams for where they're going. 

Any other late round WRs you like this year? Corey Davis? Tyler Lockett?

I have no clue what the Bills are doing.  They have three slot receivers and no one to man the perimeter.  Ginn is going to be a huge steal, and I have Tyrell is a top 20 WR.

Love Davis, worried about Lockett's ankle.  10th round or later in 12-PPR: keep an eye on ArDarius Stewart/Robby Anderson, Kenny Britt, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay.

[SoS]

1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

How far would you move Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins up your rankings if Deshaun Watson gets the start Week 1?

Watson doesn't move the needle for me in regards to Lamar Miller. He scares the hell out of me this year with his ineffectiveness last season and a very capable bruiser now waiting in the wings behind him. Not to mention, that OLine is bottom third in the league. Whether it be Savage or Watson, this is ultimately going to be one of the lower scoring offenses in the league when all is said and done. 

With that said, it does raise Nuk's stock IMO. We've seen Watson force feed a guy like Mike Williams and we've seen Hopkins do more with worse arms than Watson's. I don't anticipate Watson lighting it up, but I do expect him to be better than Savage and to be more impressionable when a vet like Hopkins is demanding the ball. 

[holt_bruce81]

If you take DeMarco in the 2nd round...do you feel like Henry is a must get in the mid-rounds? And when do you think you'd need to take him? Around rounds 6-7? 

[SoS]

30 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

With the uncertainty at the WR position for the Bills, how much Volume do you think Anquan is going to get this year? It might tale off later in the year, but to open the season I can see Tyrod feeding him a lot.  You can pretty much get him for free and he might put up WR3 production this year.  If I can get him in the 13th or 14th round as my #4, I'm super happy. I also really like Ted Ginn and Tyrell Williams for where they're going. 

Any other late round WRs you like this year? Corey Davis? Tyler Lockett?

So, here's my problem with the Bills. While I'm a fan of all three of Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, and Anquan Boldin, I think it's a very peculiar threesome because all of them thrive in the slot. If you could tell me with certainty that Boldin will be their primary slot receiver, I 100% agree with the notion that he's a steal. Problem is, I foresee the Bills moving all 3 of these guys around a lot to take advantage of each guy's skillset, and Boldin will undoubtedly struggle to remain efficient on the perimeter. He spent 83% of his time in the slot for the Lions, and if that number drops to the 60's, he's going to be a subpar weekly option. 

This, too, on the NFL's highest volume running attack and with new OC Rick Dennison in town, LeSean McCoy is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd leading receiver on this team. Right now Boldin is being drafted as WR60, per ESPN ADP's, which is actually ahead of guys like Josh Doctson, Zay Jones, Breshad Perriman, and Devin Funchess. I'll take a swing for the fences on one of those names over Boldin, who should be an easily replaceable asset via waivers. 

 

Love me some Ted Ginn this year. Definitely targeting him in every league because he is pretty much the only deep threat on this offense with Thomas and Snead and Coleman acting as more possession receivers. Like Tyrell Williams, but the looming return of Mike Williams leaves things murky. Other late round names I'm looking out for include Chris Conley, Robby Anderson, Nelson Agholor, JJ Nelson (Arians sounds like he's getting thin on patience with John Brown). I don't know if he's considered a late rounder, but I'm also very high on Cameron Meredith for where you can get him this year. 

[SoS]

6 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

If you take DeMarco in the 2nd round...do you feel like Henry is a must get in the mid-rounds? And when do you think you'd need to take him? Around rounds 6-7? 

Yes & yes. 

[holt_bruce81]

11 minutes ago, SoS said:

The two most favorable pairings from above would be the Chiefs and Saints tandem. Both duos will play on ball-control offenses (I truly think we see more of that from the Saints this year) and both will be put in positions with a lot of TD opportunity. Not only that, but both duos play in systems that are intent on getting their backs the ball in the passing game. What I love is that you're not wasting draft capital to secure one or the other. We pretty much know that Ware is going to start the season as the starter and Ingram is going to start the season as the starter on their respective teams, so you're not "wasting your position" so to speak, just to acquire a backup. 

Onto the others: 

Lacy/Rawls - One of these guys is going to be a killer value this year if the other goes down, but if both are healthy + CJ Prosise, it's going to be a headache trying to figure out who to play on a weekly basis. Depending on how far Lacy's ADP drops over these next few weeks, it may be worth the investment, but as of right now you're in a situation where you have to draft Lacy in the mid-rounds and he's probably not even going to begin the year as the starter. 

Kelley/Perine - Neither back wows you with their on-field ability. Both guys are pretty much grinders. I'm actually a Rob Kelley fan this year for where you can get him, because I think Perine is struggling so much that he's going to cost himself a lot of opportunities in his first year. The Redskins offense is efficient which should mean high volume for whoever can earn bellcow duties. Only problem is, if these two guys start splitting time, I don't think either is efficient enough on a per touch basis to warrant their draft position. 

Montgomery/Williams - Montgomery is almost going so early that it's hard for me to call it zero-RB. I actually like this combo but I also foresee a situation where both guys siphon valuable touches away from one another. Not to mention, Aaron Jones isn't just going away. 

I would like to add Martin/Jacquizz to this discussion. Maybe people are overrating Quizz a tad based off the volume he got last year during a 3-game stretch when Martin was out....but I think grabbing Martin in the 5th and Rodgers in the 9th-10th is going to be a steal and gives you RB2 production most weeks than not. 

[AFF]

In a 10 team ppr league where we start 3 rbs...is Theo Riddick worth trading a 6th rd pick for?

RBs being kept as keepers already are Riddick-Howard-Powell-Montgomery-Coleman(by me for a 10th).

 

im leaning towards NOT doing the trade despite needing to start 3rbs but wanted advice elsewhere...thanks.

[SoS]

1 minute ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I would like to add Martin/Jacquizz to this discussion. Maybe people are overrating Quizz a tad based off the volume he got last year during a 3-game stretch when Martin was out....but I think grabbing Martin in the 5th and Rodgers in the 9th-10th is going to be a steal and gives you RB2 production most weeks than not. 

I haven't done any mocks or anything so maybe competitive leagues are taking him earlier than I thought, but ESPN is showing Martin as RB39 and 115 overall, which means you can safely get him in the 9th round in a 12 team league. 

Watch out for Quizz this year. I know everyone is falling in love with his performance from last year, but even with Martin out, let's not forget that he also didn't have the competition of Charles Sims and Jeremy McNichols siphoning touches from him. Quizz was rather volume dependent and if that takes a hit, he's not going to be the early-season value he's being cracked up to be.