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Mid Iowa

Quarterback - Brees? Is it time?

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I've been thinking a lot about the Brees situation, the decline we've seen, and the "what next" scenario.

We don't currently have a contract (after March 14th) with Brees, although we do owe him money. 

Nick Foles - This guy is likely the odd man out in Philly. They have their future guy in Wentz, Foles is cheap right now (about $4mil) and with a shiny new Superbowl MVP trophy, he could easily fetch the Eagles a 1 round (plus) pick(s) in a trade.

So the balance of releasing Brees and trading for Foles could actually be a plus in the salary situation.
A 1st & 3rd round to the Eagles for Foles at $4mil, and Brees at $12mil (even if we don't retain him) puts us at $16mil for a 10 year younger QB who has shown he deserve to be more than a backup. Then the following year, ink Foles to his premium contract, he'll have a year under his belt with the team, and let the games begin!!

To pile on, this team is about as young as we could get it. We all know we're going to experience a sophomore slump with our Rookies, right? It almost always happens. Well, why not convert that into a full on transfer from the inevitable (losing Brees soon anyway) into a really good QB, with a QB heavy coach, a great RB tandem, and a defense that can help keep the offense of the field.

Other than the public black eye the Saints would get from not re-signing Brees, this is really a no-lose situation. 

Do Brees a favor and let him pick his next team. Some have mentioned Jacksonville, Cleveland, Arizona.

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48 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

I've been thinking a lot about the Brees situation, the decline we've seen, and the "what next" scenario.

We don't currently have a contract (after March 14th) with Brees, although we do owe him money. 

Nick Foles - This guy is likely the odd man out in Philly. They have their future guy in Wentz, Foles is cheap right now (about $4mil) and with a shiny new Superbowl MVP trophy, he could easily fetch the Eagles a 1 round (plus) pick(s) in a trade.

So the balance of releasing Brees and trading for Foles could actually be a plus in the salary situation.
A 1st & 3rd round to the Eagles for Foles at $4mil, and Brees at $12mil (even if we don't retain him) puts us at $16mil for a 10 year younger QB who has shown he deserve to be more than a backup. Then the following year, ink Foles to his premium contract, he'll have a year under his belt with the team, and let the games begin!!

To pile on, this team is about as young as we could get it. We all know we're going to experience a sophomore slump with our Rookies, right? It almost always happens. Well, why not convert that into a full on transfer from the inevitable (losing Brees soon anyway) into a really good QB, with a QB heavy coach, a great RB tandem, and a defense that can help keep the offense of the field.

Other than the public black eye the Saints would get from not re-signing Brees, this is really a no-lose situation. 

Do Brees a favor and let him pick his next team. Some have mentioned Jacksonville, Cleveland, Arizona.

You are overpaying for recency.  If you want Foles you would give up at most a 3rd this year with a conditional pick next year.  Giving up a 1st and 3rd this year hurts this team much mor ehtan helps us.  Not to mention we can't even guarantee that Foles will be a quality QB in our system, that he won't try to holdout for a big payday after his SB MVP, and that even if he doesn't hold out that we can resign him to a long term deal that we can afford.  I'd much rather keep our picks this year, specifically the 1st as that could be a high caliber LB/DE, and look to keep Brees around for 1 more year.

Now if the Eagles would be willing to do 3rd this year, conditional 2019 pick based on Foles signing a contract extension (though might be a requirement for the trade, sign him to an extension of 2 yr 40 mil 24 guaranteed, his salary stays the same for the 2018 season) as well as his performance.  Starts off as a 4th round pick, 3rd for 3500 yards OR 25 TD, 2nd for 4000 yards OR 30 TDs, 1st for 4000 yards AND 30 TDs.  So we might still end up giving up a 1st and 3rd, though a 2019 1st and a 2018 3rd, but it would be based on production, not a short run.

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I'll stick with noodle arm Brees until he retires in a couple of years. Trading for Foles would be a mistake. Let someone else make that mistake.

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3 hours ago, JMG5 said:

I'll stick with noodle arm Brees until he retires in a couple of years. Trading for Foles would be a mistake. Let someone else make that mistake.

I'm not sure that I follow the "mistake" part.

The guy played for Chip Kelly who didn't last in the NFL, and he played really well. Then played for Jeff Fisher who wrecked more QB's that pretty much anyone. Then got stuck behind Alex Smith for a year, then back to Philly and won them a Super Bowl.

BTW, his playoff numbers vs. some really good defenses (and a decent Pats defense) have been impressive.

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6 hours ago, Raves said:

You are overpaying for recency. 

Doesn't every team overpay for recency? Isn't that what the draft is? You overpay (high pick) based on recent play of a player and hope it transfers into the NFL (Stephone Anthony vs. Marshon Lattimore).

6 hours ago, Raves said:

I'd much rather keep our picks this year, specifically the 1st as that could be a high caliber LB/DE, and look to keep Brees around for 1 more year.

I appreciate this comment, and my feelings are pretty close.

I'm looking at the possibility of a seasoned QB with size who stays healthy and could benefit with some QB specific coaching.

Just a though. I'd quickly give up a 1st for a potential franchise QB.

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36 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

Doesn't every team overpay for recency? Isn't that what the draft is? You overpay (high pick) based on recent play of a player and hope it transfers into the NFL (Stephone Anthony vs. Marshon Lattimore).

I appreciate this comment, and my feelings are pretty close.

I'm looking at the possibility of a seasoned QB with size who stays healthy and could benefit with some QB specific coaching.

Just a though. I'd quickly give up a 1st for a potential franchise QB.

I would too, but I don't think Foles is that guy.

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9 hours ago, JMG5 said:

I would too, but I don't think Foles is that guy.

Interesting scenario to say the least. Brees has roughly a month to ink an extension...I say hold tight and be patient. Besides if Taysom Hill is what Sean Payton thinks he is...we have our next franchise QB already. 

Foles came out of the same high school as Brees and he obviously is talented enough to deserve a starting QB gig. He is no Brees though.

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2 hours ago, jcvoodoo said:

Interesting scenario to say the least. Brees has roughly a month to ink an extension...I say hold tight and be patient. Besides if Taysom Hill is what Sean Payton thinks he is...we have our next franchise QB already. 

I love the idea of Taysom Hill. I am also concerned with his injury history. I'm hoping all of that was kind of a fluke.

2 hours ago, jcvoodoo said:

Foles came out of the same high school as Brees and he obviously is talented enough to deserve a starting QB gig. He is no Brees though.

I'm not sure we'll see another Brees for a long time. The guy is truly unique.

Good stuff, JC

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Foles would be a guy to bring in to see if he’s your guy, no way I’d be OK giving up a first though. 

Weve seen him succeed in the right system, we’ve also seen him completely and utterly fail in some

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1 hour ago, domepatrol91 said:

Foles would be a guy to bring in to see if he’s your guy, no way I’d be OK giving up a first though. 

Weve seen him succeed in the right system, we’ve also seen him completely and utterly fail in some

I'm not sure what "complete & utter" failure is. I think the 2015 season was a tough one for him, and I truly feel that was due to the coaching staff of Jeff Fisher who was circling the drain as a coach.

Aside from that one crappy season, his stats are great.

I obviously don't have access to all his tape, so I don't know what coaches do or don't see in him, I just think he would be a great fit with our scheme.

When considering a 1st round pick (I know, that's probably high) I look at those that haven't fared well, and then look at Foles' proven stats.

His stats are actually on par with, or better than several overall #1 picks.
Better than David Carr
Not as good as Carson Palmer
Higher overall rating than Eli Manning
Nearly identical stats to Alex Smith, Mathew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Andrew Luck
On par with Cam Newton (minus total yardage)
And about the same as Jared Goff

Pretty good company, I'd say.



 

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2 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

I'm not sure what "complete & utter" failure is. I think the 2015 season was a tough one for him, and I truly feel that was due to the coaching staff of Jeff Fisher who was circling the drain as a coach.

That might've been a tad harsh, but he was really only good in 2013, and again this year on a small sample size. He was mediocre in 2014 and bad in 2015. His stint with the Chiefs is too small of a sample for me to really consider. 

5 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

Aside from that one crappy season, his stats are great.

Great stats doesn't always mean great QB though. I definitely wouldn't consider 2014 a great season, nor seasons he was a backup most of the time. 

8 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

When considering a 1st round pick (I know, that's probably high) I look at those that haven't fared well, and then look at Foles' proven stats.

I definitely think a 1st is high because of the implications.

If we trade a 1st for him it'll likely come on the stipulation we can sign him long term. You give up a lot of leverage in negotiations when you trade a 1st for a guy... you're naming him your franchise QB and he'll want to get paid accordingly.

He won't want to play backup again (to Brees) and he won't start for 26m on a 4 year deal. Saints wouldn't give up a first without a guarantee he'd play ball, and you can't guarantee that without paying him. 

2 hours ago, domepatrol91 said:

Foles would be a guy to bring in to see if he’s your guy, no way I’d be OK giving up a first though. 

I'd give up a 3rd and a late round pick or player for him, otherwise I'm fine with Brees and looking elsewhere. 

 

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On 2/7/2018 at 1:26 PM, JMG5 said:

I'll stick with noodle arm Brees until he retires in a couple of years. Trading for Foles would be a mistake. Let someone else make that mistake.

People are gonna hate on me for this but I am begining to love the idea of resigning Brees for 2 years and drafting Lamar Jackson at 27. Brees is solid until 2020 and Jackson will only be 23 by then. Hed benifit the most by sitting and learning, yes his accuarcy isnt on Brees level but it is much better than what most are saying. Jackson also has a cannon and makes up for his lack of accuarcy with eletric playmaking ability. Those who are expecting a carbon copy of Bees as the successor is kidding themselves, Brees is a once in a generation type player that wont be repeated, Jacskon on the other had has a chance to be a great player for the Saints in his own way.

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3 hours ago, whodatworm23 said:

People are gonna hate on me for this but I am begining to love the idea of resigning Brees for 2 years and drafting Lamar Jackson at 27. Brees is solid until 2020 and Jackson will only be 23 by then. Hed benifit the most by sitting and learning, yes his accuarcy isnt on Brees level but it is much better than what most are saying. Jackson also has a cannon and makes up for his lack of accuarcy with eletric playmaking ability. Those who are expecting a carbon copy of Bees as the successor is kidding themselves, Brees is a once in a generation type player that wont be repeated, Jacskon on the other had has a chance to be a great player for the Saints in his own way.

I was actually thinking about this earlier and was going to post it, but been distracted with other stuff lately.  He's got a big arm, though can be inconsistent, and has great athleticism, though I would be hesitant to actually try to develop an offensive system with him as a runner due to his build, though some bootlegs wouldn't be a bad idea letting him freeze some defenders with his running ability to open up the pass.

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4 hours ago, whodatworm23 said:

People are gonna hate on me for this but I am begining to love the idea of resigning Brees for 2 years and drafting Lamar Jackson at 27. Brees is solid until 2020 and Jackson will only be 23 by then. Hed benifit the most by sitting and learning, yes his accuarcy isnt on Brees level but it is much better than what most are saying. Jackson also has a cannon and makes up for his lack of accuarcy with eletric playmaking ability. Those who are expecting a carbon copy of Bees as the successor is kidding themselves, Brees is a once in a generation type player that wont be repeated, Jacskon on the other had has a chance to be a great player for the Saints in his own way.

I actually wouldn't mind this to be honest, but with a caveat. The caveat being we fix our holes in other ways. We need a pass rusher, an LB who can cover (I love Anzalone, but he needs to stay healthy) and a TE (imo). If we can plug those holes via free agency, trade and later picks, I think I'd be really happy taking Jackson with the 27th pick and letting him sit behind Brees for a few years.

I actually quite like Jackson as a prospect, and him learning from Brees and Payton for a few years would really benefit him. However, last year showed we're not too far away from contending. I don't want to sacrifice that to think of the future.

Also just throwing this out there, how about trading for Kizer? I can't imagine he'll cost more than a late round pick. Cleveland is selecting a QB in round 1, and might add a veteran starter too (MMQB speculated Darnold at 1 and Bradford via FA), so Kizer might be available. He was a decent prospect coming out, might not be a bad flyer who comes cheap.

Edited by Canadian Saint

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On 2/7/2018 at 6:20 PM, Mid Iowa said:

I'm not sure that I follow the "mistake" part.

The guy played for Chip Kelly who didn't last in the NFL, and he played really well. Then played for Jeff Fisher who wrecked more QB's that pretty much anyone. Then got stuck behind Alex Smith for a year, then back to Philly and won them a Super Bowl.

BTW, his playoff numbers vs. some really good defenses (and a decent Pats defense) have been impressive.

A lot of people sleep on what Foles is capable of. Like you said, his regression happened due to QB killer Jeff Fisher. He was then sat behind Alex Smith on another team. Foles has potential. He showed it in the playoffs and the Superbowl. I think in the right scheme he can get it done very well. Price is a big question, though.

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