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2018 Free Agency - Prospects for GB


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9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

They aren't tagging him to keep him, they'll either trade him or rescind the tag. He won't be on the cap longer than the first day of FA if I had to guess.

Fair enough.  I just think that's a big risk for little reward.  

 

Just now, CWood21 said:

Because you can sign a contract and it not execute until a later date.  It's still considered a binding contract since both parties signed it.  They're not over the cap with a franchise tag AND extension last I checked.

They have 48.9 million in space without the Franchise Tag and Smith contracts on the books per over the cap.  Between Smith and the 34.7 Franchise Tag they'd be way over.  Unless I'm missing something

 

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3 minutes ago, eyecatcher said:

They have 48.9 million in space without the Franchise Tag and Smith contracts on the books per over the cap.  Between Smith and the 34.7 Franchise Tag they'd be way over.  Unless I'm missing something

Looking at Spotrac, they've got a shade under $31.5M in cap space right now.  That includes the $17M remaining on Alex Smith's contract, and as far as I'm aware the deal hasn't been announced yet, so assuming that the 2018 cap hit doesn't change significantly between now and then, the Redskins would need to clear another ~$3.5M in order to fit the franchise tag.  Simply by converting Ryan Kerrigan's base salary into a signing bonus, they'd create roughly an extra $6M in cap space, which would be more than enough to fit in the franchise tag.  It can be done, it just leaves them limited.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:
1 hour ago, JBURGE25 said:

I don't think there's a single team that will eat a $35m cap hit in 2018 for one year with Cousins without having him signing a long term deal. 

Cousins said he isn't interested in handicapping his new team. He also said he wants to choose his team. If the Redskins tag him, I wouldn't be shocked if he sat out and screwed Washington. The risk is WAY higher than the reward. 

A 4th round pick that pretty much makes just about any team a playoff-caliber is a small price to pay.  Plus you have exclusive negotiating rights to Cousins for that calendar year.  I'd imagine that Denver and Arizona would jump at that opportunity.

Denver and Arizona currently have $26M and $23M of cap space, respectively. They need to shed 10 million just to entertain it, let alone sign anyone else, for what could still end up being a 1 year rental. 

However, Washington has $32M. If no one bites, they are screwed. 

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2 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

Denver and Arizona currently have $26M and $23M of cap space, respectively. They need to shed 10 million just to entertain it, let alone sign anyone else, for what could still end up being a 1 year rental. 

However, Washington has $32M. If no one bites, they are screwed. 

An Aqib Talib trade (whom they've already pretty much said they're trading) would $10M, or releasing Menelik Watson would clear an extra $4.5M which gets them there or almost there.  As for the Cardinals, they'd probably have to convert some players (Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati, etc.) base salary into signing bonuses, but it's doable.

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4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

An Aqib Talib trade (whom they've already pretty much said they're trading) would $10M, or releasing Menelik Watson would clear an extra $4.5M which gets them there or almost there.  As for the Cardinals, they'd probably have to convert some players (Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati, etc.) base salary into signing bonuses, but it's doable.

No doubt it's doable, but that just takes on Cousins. They have other issues too. It is just a lot to move around without certainty. 

If Cousins plays ball and signs the tag early and negotiates a long term deal, then it's all a moot point anyway. From his perspective, is he willing to sit out for a year? Probably not. But either way if the Skins tag Cousins it will be a real bad look for the owner and franchise

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14 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

No doubt it's doable, but that just takes on Cousins. They have other issues too. It is just a lot to move around without certainty. 

If Cousins plays ball and signs the tag early and negotiates a long term deal, then it's all a moot point anyway. From his perspective, is he willing to sit out for a year? Probably not. But either way if the Skins tag Cousins it will be a real bad look for the owner and franchise

Pretty much what I'm thinking but maybe put a little better than I was saying it.

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Gimme Vontae Davis.  Just realized he's a FA and free to sign with any team even before the new year.

@Cadmus will tell you that he won't age well since he only ran a 4.49.  But he's 29, not 34.  He should be a viable player for 2-3 seasons as an alternative to House.

He's 2 years removed from a pro bowl season, and one year from being a legit No. 1 corner.

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5 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Gimme Vontae Davis.  Just realized he's a FA and free to sign with any team even before the new year.

@Cadmus will tell you that he won't age well since he only ran a 4.49.  But he's 29, not 34.  He should be a viable player for 2-3 seasons as an alternative to House.

He's 2 years removed from a pro bowl season, and one year from being a legit No. 1 corner.

Why is he unsigned currently?

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10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm having a hard time finding the "value" free agent among corners.  Last year, we saw 9 corners earn an AAV of at least $5M.

It's a sign of the times CWood.  The NFL has become more of a passing league and good corners are really not easy to find - and yet they're so dang important.  When teams find them, they don't want to let them go. 

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On 2/11/2018 at 4:02 PM, Golfman said:

Trent Murphy, slightly above average EDGE rusher who is going to be overpaid by someone. I hope it is not us. 

What do people think he would cost?  

I'm no more in favor of overpaying than the next guy.  But sometimes you need to overpay a little bit if you're going to get a starter.  So if the overpay isn't TOO horrible, maybe you've just got to bite the bullet? 

I'm all in favor of getting value, but there is gamble with any FA.  And if the modestly-paid potential-value guys are going to be modestly-paid, there's automatically the risk that they won't be very good value because they just won't be that good and won't make much difference.  (Heh heh, some of us were very optimistic that Kendricks, Bennett, and Brooks were going to be really good value pickups.  Unfortunately two of them were hurt, and in the case of Kendricks we saw why nobody was offering any cash for him....)  

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I'm having a hard time finding the "value" free agent among corners.  Last year, we saw 9 corners earn an AAV of at least $5M.

I'd spend $8M for a 1a/1b type corner to pair with King on the outside.

Here's a go at a team that includes both Malcom Butler and Davon House, with House earning the same 2.5M he got this year from GB, and Butler having an $8M 2018 cap hit.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/green-bay-packers/2018/8d995adca0e2917bdef8b67aa98b2531/

Jordy is still in there at 12+M and due for an extension to lower that, cobb is cut, and Moncrief is signed at 4M cap number.  He'd probably be a touch higher than that, but Jordy will probably be lower so it balances out.

Leaves us with 12M before rookies, which probably add 3-4M in space above the existing players who will be cut like Fackrell and a corner and OL or two.

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One way to justify overpaying for a starter at a crisis position is that you get not just the player, but in a sense you also get a draft pick.  

For the moment, I feel like needs are so critical that the first and second picks need to get used on edge and corner.  Even though I'm not at all confident that the edges there at 14 will be very good prospects or very good NFL players, or the 2nd-round corners.  But, what else can you do, the needs are so acute.  

Perhaps if you signed a starting-caliber corner and/or edge, even if the salary seemed too high, perhaps you could free one of those picks to be used on a BPA guy instead of need-picks, and maybe your BPA pick will end up being really good?    

 

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4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

At this point, I'd rather pony up the money on Jimmy Graham than overpay a middling TE FA.  We need someone whose clearly better than Lance Kendricks.  Not sure Trey Burton is anything more a marginal upgrade over Lance Kendricks.  And I don't see the Packers paying for WR.

This is a scouting question for which I'm unqualified.  But I'm actually pretty interested in Burton.  Not sure he's going to cost that much; and not confident that he's more than a middling TE.  But I think that guy can really run well for a TE.  Don't expect much blocking, but I think he might prove out to be more than middling if you got him playing with #12.  I'd be interested in taking a shot there. 

Second, compared to Kendricks and what we've had for recent years, I think a middling, average TE would be a huge boost.  Somebody average would be a huge upgrade on bad.  On the broad continuum between bad and excellent, I think Kendricks might be a lot further towards the "bad" end.  Even "average" could be a big step forward.

Third, I think the Packers pass-catching collection is very limited.  (TE especially, WR as well, RB also.)  Adding a target could make a big difference, I think.  Worth considering, including at the presumably limited number of millions that a TE like Burton would cost.  

Fourth, I think players understand that Rodgers is good.  I'd think a guy who hasn't been a starter could easily imagine himself making a lot of catches if given the chance to get a lot of snaps with #12.  I think that would be appealing.  So I think there's a chance a pass-catching guy might not need quite as much overpay to want to come to Green Bay as might be true for a defensive player.  Maybe an opportunity to get better-value-per-buck.    

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