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BDL Discussion Thread 2018


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@DingoLadd

Sydney

Grade: It's difficult to fill needs with a limited supply of picks. Sydney made a major decision that defined their off season when trading for Dak Prescott. Their values landed SEC talent and increasing their talent at WR and CB. I think with three top 32 choices, this team has a chance to get immediate contributions if any of the three players enter the right scheme. More dependent on fit in comparison to some, each of the three players have specific fits that will allow them to reach productive levels in the NFL. Considered giving a C+, but Ridley's plug and play upside is worthwhile due to need at the position.

Grade: B-

2.3: Calvin Ridley: Scrutinized throughout the draft process, Ridley is still one of the safer talents at receiver. Comes from high level of talent and was essentially the number one receiver on Alabama since he was a freshman. He's nearly maxed out physically and offers immediate speed that may beat single coverage. He didn't play in a spread but can be a solid threat in a vertical offense. With better opportunities as an intermediate target, getting uncovered regularly will have a major impact on his ability to develop into a high level receiver. 

2.9: Donte Jackson: Blazing speed. Served as a slot CB at LSU with experience playing for three years. I question his ability to play outside because his weight (sub 190) and arm length (sub 30 inch) so a move to safety is not out the question. Arguably a better fit there if he's got the instincts and comfort to move in off ball coverage. Likely ticketed for the slot, Jackson can make a contribution before most expect if a team keeps him inside or move him out to safety on obvious passing situations. 

2.10: Carl Davis: Miami native. Looks the part at CB. Gave contributions for multiple seasons and has solid production. Interesting play maker whom is still learning to turn his head on go routes. He's going to be able to play on the boundary of reaches expectations. DJ Chark had a solid performance when they lined up this past season. Although he looks the part, I think he's got a real floor. Upside is a solid starter. 

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@RuskieTitan

Ivory Coast

2.6: Da'Ron Payne, DT

3.13: Maurice Hurst, DT

5.2: Nick Chubb, RB

6.2: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE

Overall: Ivory Coast getting Da'Ron Payne was essentially having a first round choice per my BB. Pairing him with Hurst could eventually develop into a starting duo. Payne also having pass rush ability is important because Hurst athleticism will come second to his variety of pass rushing moves. Chubb has the look of rich mans Samarje Perine and he looked comfortable catching passes at the combine. I like these prospects individually but a limited supply of picks and the question of immediate improvemts drag the grade down. Fwiw, the grade is the last thing participants should worry about because it's based on value and immediate contributions.

Grade: C+

2.6: Payne: Solid introduction choice. Payne was in my top 10. Higher on him than most. He offers plus size and scheme versatility. Picture perfect fit as a 4-3 NT. Does the job for run defense. Athletic ability matches his skill set nicely. 

3.13: Hurst: Hurst is a bit more scheme dependent and may only be suited for pass rush purposes in year one. He comes with excellent production and shows some good athletic ability on tape. His heart condition stopped us from developing a complete profile. Pro day numbers were a little disappointing but he's got pass rushing moves equipped in his skill set already. May need refinement period to start, will likely become most productive in 4 man sets, Hurst could also have solid potential in sub package 3 man front playing DE. His pass rush moves are of great value because he is an average athlete. More boom bust than on the surface. 

5.2: Chubb: He had an outstanding combine, which is neat for him after suffering a major injury. Before that, Nick was the more noticible Chubb. On my notes, I compared him Samarje Perine. One on hand, Perine was a two down player in year one, but he was a brilliant college player at Oklahoma. Hasn't shown plus traits in the receiving game since a freshman but I think he's better than a two down player should be. The injury changed his career but is still a quality athlete and a productive runner. Higher floor than most people think.

6.2: Okoronkwo: Elite production in college, Okoronkwo is built to rush the passer. He's long limbed and strong for a 253 edge rusher. Developing run defense could be an issue he's got a chance to shine on dime and speed looks. Early down defense could be an issue. Looks like a 3-4 OLB, as in a 4-3 he could be left without a position (DE or SLB?). 

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@SkunkApes

Orlando

2.1: Baker Mayfield, QB

2.3: Jaire Alexander, CB

2.12: Mike Gesicki, TE

2.15: Josh Sweat, Edge

3.2: Connor Williams, OL

3:5: Frank Ragnow, C

3.12: Ronald Jones, RB

4.6: Dante Pettis, WR

4.15: Fred Warner, LB

5.7: Austin Corbett, OL

5.12: Royce Freeman, RB

7.1: Trayvon Henderson, S

Overall: Every year is the same with Orlando. They start with a quarter of the first round picks. They trade most (all this year) of those picks for first rounders next year and begin making cost effective selections on players they like. With more access than just about every other owner, it makes sense that nearly all of their picks  sans Ronald Jones is a high level athlete. Alexander/Gesicki/Sweat are all elite athletes at their respective positions and I really liked the latter two for their upside at the next level. Williams/Corbett are high floor high/low ceiling guys while Ragnow is a bit more consistent with strong production in the SEC. The skill guys are role players to me but the RBs have experience handling the full load if necessary on occasion. Although it'll be a challenge to replicate the formula Orlando has in reality, their team is almost always going to be one of the top draft collections in terms of value. How their draft class will be defined is based on those four second round choices. I liked the lineman picks while the safety literally turned himself into a draft pick with his performance in front of the scout. 

Grade: A

2.1: Mayfield: People love comparing him to Manziel and Wilson. Both are sexy names but he's got a really good arm. If he's not an immediate contributor I think of someone like Case Keemun that blew up in the right position as a reasonable comparison. He threw the ball extremely well at the combine and offers some extreme competitive levels. I'm not completely sold on him and he's an older QB for the position. In the end that drive will lead him to succeed or overwhelm teammates responding to his leadership. Second best passer pure passer behind Allen and the most accurate thrower of the major 4 talents. Did a great job avoiding interceptions in college, a trait that has merit to transfer toward the next level.

2.3: Alexander: He's scheme versatile with an ability to do light shadowing. Should fit immediately in the slot with some underrated ability to play the boundary. He excels with short area speed with above average arm length. Blazing general speed by all accounts. Had some durability issues but a high ceiling. Quality punt returner. 

2.12: Gesicki: He's my number one TE. Elite athlete with solid production as a receiver. I think he's got the best potential to win in the intermediate areas of the field in comparison to the other TEs in this class. Blocking may be an issue but his upside as a weapon suggest it will not affect his playing time if ability to win as a receiver translates to the next level. 

2.15: Sweat: He's an intriguing talent but solid player already. Measurables suggest he should've been a top 10 pick. One of legitimate talents that should greatly ascend in the NFL. He can develop some more pass rush moves but his body is well built for any scheme. One of the best run defending prospects in the draft, Sweat believes he's past those injury concerns which plagued him early in college. For someone who watched him for three years, the injuries weren't much of an issue once Sweat got consistent reps. If he can develop a go to pass rush move (will be playing without a brace in NFL - something he clearly believed affected production) sky is the limit on him. Favorite Orlando pick to this point. 

3.2: Williams: High end athlete at any offensive line position. Williams offers terrific athleticism with some underrated explosiveness (34 inch vert at 296 pounds!). I think he's got some consistency issues and needs to improve functional strength for the pros. 

3.5: Ragnow: Looks the part at Center. Did not participate in the scouting combine but showed out during his pro day. Functional strength will probably not be an issue with his game. He brings really good athleticism with four year production. Injury issues cost him the Senior Bowl, but he's been on the field all 4 years with experience at RG. He's got a good ceiling with versatility to play ZBS and man schemes.

3.12: Jones: He earned the Jamaal Charles comp that seemingly every quicker than fast RB earns. Combine was a little disappointing and I don't think he's a high pick based on measurables. That being said RBs greatest asset for guys whom win on tradional sets (vision) is not something combine testing can evaluate. People really liked him but I consider him a JAG with upside for more based on film. I loved his tape v Colorado and was the basis for why his vision should be a major asset at the next level. Underrated ability to handle the workload.

4.6: Pettis: He's a four down player with real ability to take it the distance. Go routes may translate immediately and I've got in my notes that he got uncovered Marlon Humphrey for a TD during the bowl game two seasons ago. A productive JR year was capped with an injury that followed through during combine testing. He finally got a chance to workout and looked good with short area speed and a quality vertical jump. Would've preferred him to be a little faster and that's possible seeing as his offseason has been mostly rehab. Needs to gain some weight for a full time offensive role, Pettis will be a solid NFL player if his QB can vertically stretch the field. Reminds me of Kenny Stills. 

4.15: Warner: I came onto him later in the draft process. One of the more impressive things on tape was watching him read Josh Rosen and step in front of a his pass when they played this past season. He's got very good production with some ball hawk ability at LB. That skill set fits in today's game and he's got some quality athletic ability. He's not an overpowering guy and may need some more work against the run in comparison to guys like Micah Kizer. Floor is elevated because his coverage speciality it'll be interesting to see his devlopement against the run off-ball or having to take on blockers in a 3-4. Greatest challenge to becoming a starter.

5.7: Corbett: One of the under appreciated picks, Corbett had a really strong predraft process. His tape was productive with two years of experience starting at the blind side for Nevada. The obvious comp is a guy like Joel Bitino and like the former it's not far fetched that he'll have to learn a new position in the pros. More of a ZBS fit, Corbett is going to win with quickness (4.50 20 yard shuttle) and tenacious competitive levels. Functional strength may be an issue as his arms are likely going to force him to play inside. Long term project in a man scheme.

5.12: Freeman: He's an interesting combination of skill set and ability. If he was a quality receiver, floor would significantly increase. Still a solid receiver on screens, he has some durability questions from his production at Oregon. He's got plus traits playing from the gun in addition to redzone speciality. For a 234 pounder, good speed for his size.

7.1: Henderson: Four year player at Hawaii, Henderson is here because he held his own during pre draft evaluations in pads. He's got production forcing turnovers throughout his time in Hawaii, and has a chance to develop into a rotational player with reliability playing deep like Duron Harmon. Plus athleticism with short speed quickness, there will be issues about Hendersons flat out speed. I look forward to his development as he left good impressions on NFL evaluators. Two man under scheme with some ability to play in the box seems like his best fit. 

Edited by MD4L
Grammar
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@MD4L

Cuba

Overall: We were interested in getting picks throughout the draft. Was forced to give away a first to get Derwin James, but two picks in round two will give us a chance to make moves next season. We were gunning for BPA until we got Derwin. The rest of our draft board gave us value on positions that need depth. We came in with needs and addressed all of them except the interior line. Cuba can use another CB/LB/OG so we expect to get two of those three positions filled with free agency.

Grade: B+

1.9: Derwin James, FS, FSU - Very dynamic defender. He was the second highest rated defensive player in the draft to us. Versatility to play at a variety of positions at a high level. At his current weight he's best suited as a safety. He should immediately help in run defense. He played deep quite a bit as a freshman. Got used as a pass rusher and middle LB on passing downs. He's more athletic than Harrison Smith and like Harrison Smith I wanted a full time safety who can do everything from the safety position. Includes cover 1 single high. 

2.8: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado: Very long arms. He got a ton of swats in college. He has experience playing without safety help. He has enough speed to stay outside but we think elevating his game to the next level is being asked to shadow top flight receivers. Whether he can play zone coverage (cover 2 is a minor hint while cover 3 is significant for his HWS) will dictate his floor.

2.13: D.J. Chark, WR, LSU: Right there with DJ Moore for the most explosive receiver. The thing that catches my eye was his speed. With his 6'3 height advantage, that should be immediately recognizable if he's matched against a cover 3 CB that does not press him. Needs to continue building his frame but he may be able to play immediately at 199 pounds. I think he's a home hitter as even with limited touches his ability to run past people is legit. As he refines his game to possibly become a focal point, I see a lot of Robby Anderson.


3.1: Ronnie Harrison, SS, Alabama: I love his game. He's a very strong run defender, so the fact Alabama decided to make him a nickel guy covering slot WRs show what they think of his versatility. He is tall for the safety position like Derwin. Unlike Derwin James, I wouldn't ask him to play cover one FS full time. He can even do some stuff at LB if his coverage limitations are legitimate. I don't believe that so my expectations are that when asked to play each role we ask that he makes plays. He also has legitimate blitz ability for plus value. 7 career combined sacks, 10 combined TFLs by both safeties last season.

4.10: Malik Jefferson, ILB, Texas: Continuing the theme of refining our defense, Jefferson is an ideal LB if you want if seeking a run and chase defender. His body type suggests he can play all three LB positions in a 4-3. He's a bit undersized for a 4-3 SLB but has legitimate blitz ability. We think he's a guy that needs to learn the NFL game before getting a position and developing the key trait of awareness. If he can develop pass coverage understandings and do that consistently, he will become a good player.

6.9: Jaylen Samuels, TE/OW, NC State: This is a high risk reward selection. If there's one thing we think of Samuels, I love his ability to catch the football. I think his floor is on a 53 man roster. If he gets a chance to play he should bring immediate value. He can play RB, TE, and is valuable for specific packages. We thought Tavon Austin was an OW and think he can contribute as a specialist similar to Austin. Samuels has experience running routes and lining up at on the LOS. He can win on multiple areas on the field. 

7.5: Dorance Armstrong, Edge, Kansas: He's another interesting player. There's some similarities to DeMarcus Lawerence. He ran a slow 40 but has pass rush moves in addition to lengthy arms. Got the best of Orlando Brown on multiple occasions. He should be developmental for his first few years. His long term upside is worth the wait. 

7.6: Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana: Interesting prospect. Wanted to add depth and double at the TE position. Only has 28 career catches but he looked good at the combine. He is an average athlete at the position so his playing time will likely come from his ability to run vertical routes and catch the ball. I think he's a guy that is worth a look for long term development. 

7.9: Derrick Nnadi, DT, FSU: Solid production. 4 year player that got a lot of starts in his past two years. His pass rush ability is underrated (watch Ole Miss 2016, Clemson & Syracuse 2017), but I think he's a clog in the running game. For that reason particularly as a 4-3 NT, he can become a prominent run defender.

7.10: Brandon Parker, OT, NC A&T: High upside type of body frame. He's got multiple years on the left side. Looked like he could hang from reports at the Senior Bowl. If he uses his arms correctly, should be able to pass protect at an above average level. Looking forward to his development with his lower body. 

7.13: Matthew Thomas, ILB, FSU: He's a high ceiling player. Passable speed with elite vertical ability, he could figure to be an asset in pass defense. That's why he's got upside. What he can do now is track the football and make plays against the run on off ball situations. In terms of athletic ability there's far and few with his talent. He's consistently made it a point to suggest his best football is ahead of him.

7.14: John Kelly, RB, Tennessee: We like his ability to hit the hole and make plays as a receiver. His athleticism is about average but he has a skill set that could translate immediately to a change of pace position. Taking a risk considering some off field stuff.

Edited by MD4L
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45 minutes ago, pheltzbahr said:

Frogs pushing Derwin as a single high FS any chance he can get is my favorite meme of this draft.  Keep it up!

There really aren't a ton of players that play both SS and FS well, you don't want Chancellor at FS and Earl Thomas at SS for instance.  Eric Berry(assuming health), Haha, Harrison Smith, and Jamal Adams can, and I think Minkah will be able to, but I have more doubts about Derwin.  I do think Derwin could be an elite TE cover guy due to his height and agility.

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