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Positional depth/sweet spots and draft strategy


NudeTayne

Trade down at 4?  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. Saquon or trade down at 4?

    • Saquon at 4
      11
    • Trade down to NYJ for 2018 4th, 2019 2nd
      5
    • Trade down to Buffalo for #21, #22, #53
      8
    • Chubb at 4
      1
    • Minkah at 4
      1
    • Other pick at 4
      0


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All this talk about not grabbing Saquon or a WR high due to positional depth in the draft has got me looking at the draft as a whole for this year. I'm wondering where we need to be aggressive and where we can sit back (like we did when we finally traded yup to grab Howard Wilson, whom many like myself had considered tier 2 for CBs and a great value where we got him).

It also makes me curious about where the positional tiers are this year.  While this is an inexact science & all, I've brainstormed the perceived tiers at some important positions we're looking at:

QB Tier 1 - Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield / Tier 2 - Jackson, Allen / Tier 2.5 - Rudolph, Falk, White, Lauletta / Tier 3 - Benkert, Ferguson

HB Tier 1 - Barkley / Tier 2 - Guice, Michel, Jones, Freeman, Penny, Ballage, Chubb / Tier 3 - Walton, Wadley, Adams, Scarbrough, K. Johnson, I. Smith, J. Samuel

WR Tier 1 - Ridley, Sutton / Tier 2 - Kirk, Cain, DJ Moore, Ateman, Gallup, St. Brown, Cobbs, Tate, A. Miller, J. Washington / Tier 2.5 - D.J. Chark, J. Scott, Lazard, Berrios, Callaway, K. Coutee, T. Smith

OT Tier 1 - McGlinchey / Tier 2 - O. Brown, K. Miller, C. Williams, T. Crosby, C. Okorafor, B. O'Neil, M. Rankin, J. Jones, D. Harrison, A. Kappa

OG Tier 1 - Q. Nelson / Tier 2 - W. Hernandez, I. Wynn / Tier 2.5 - T. Crowder, B. Smith, S. Walsh, T. Hearn, T. Weathersby, W. Clapp

OC Tier 2 - B. Price, J. Daniels, F. Ragnow, M. Cole, B. Bozeman

TE Tier 1.5 - H. Hurst, M. Andrews, M. Gesicki, D. Goedert / Tier 2 - A. Breneman, D. Smythe, D. Schultz, I. Thomas, T. Fumagalli

EDGE Tier 1 - Chubb, Davenport, Landry / Tier 2 - Key, D. Armstrong, R. Greene, Okoronkwo, Mata'afa, J. Sweat, J. Holland / Tier 2.5 - Ojiefor, Hubbard, A. Brown, T. Lewis, U. Nwosu, C. Thomas, L. Carter

DL Tier 1 - M. Hurst, Vita V., H. Phillips, T. Bryan, D. Payne / Tier 2 - D. Nnadi, L. Lotulelei, T. Thompson / Tier 2.5 - D. Hand, RJ McIntosh, J. Jones, M. Hill, B. Speaks

LB Tier 1 - R. Smith, T. Edmunds, R. Evans / Tier 2 - Vander Esch, M. Jefferson / Tier 2.5 - D. Leonard, D. O'Daniel, J. Jewell / Tier 3 - M. Kiser, J. Baker, C. Worley, L. Carter, D. Bellamy

CB Tier 1 - Minkah, Denzel, J. Jackson, I. Oliver, Carlton / Tier 2 - M. Hughes, MJ Stewart, D. Dawson, J. Alexander, T. McFadden, N. Nelson, D. Jackson, D. Tolliver, H. Hill / Tier 2.5 - J. King, Q. Meeks, Darious, K. Kelly, J.C. Jackson, L. Wallace, A. Averett, A. Alexander

FS Tier 2 - A. Watts, J. Reid, T. Henderson, J. Whitehead, K. White, K. Kelly, Q. Blanding, J. Bates III, G. Igwebuike

SS Tier 1 - Minkah, Derwin / Tier 2 - D. Elliott, M. Allen, K. White, T. Edmunds

So of course there will be plenty of argument as to who goes where, but that's just a little list I threw together off the top of my head as to how I & others are seeing this draft class. 

Some conclusions I've drawn:

(1) OT - It appears to me that we don't want to wait past the second round to grab a tackle if we want one, as they tend to go fast & this isn't a super deep draft (though there are a lot of tier 2 players so one should make it to the early/late 2nd round). 

(2) FS - We can probably go ahead and wait til at least round three for a FS, as they are mostly graded similarly--just not a high end class but many quality mid round guys. 

(3) CB - If we sign someone like Malcolm Butler or Trumaine Johnson, I could see us waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round to grab a corner, maybe even two, as this class is very deep again.

(4) WR - The 2nd/3rd rounds should have plenty of solid WR available for the picking, maybe even 4th &5th round.

(5) Randos - I could see us waiting on LB & TE a bit as neither are a top need but have plenty of middle round talent to choose from.  DL is insanely deep in this draft and, though we are looking fairly good there, I wouldn't hate a value pick somewhere.

(6) C - It doesn't seem clear as to if we are even going after a starting C, but this draft looks to have plenty of potential starters.  If a guy like Daniels or Ragnow are just sitting there at the end of the 2nd/into the 3rd, it may be worth pulling the trigger.  And yes, I love Billy Price just like you do.

What else do people notice?  How long do you wait to grab a WR (or two?) based on this ultra deep WR class?  How would you design your draft strategy based on the depth this year?  Where are the sweet spots?

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I would have a really had time turning down 21, 22 and 53 if it was offered to us by Buffalo.

We could take Darnold #1 overall.

Then at 21 and 22 I would keep my eyes open on Ridley, Sutton, Guice, Davenport, McGlichey, Brown, Williams, Denzel, Jackson, Oliver, Carlton, etc.

I know people are against trading down recently, but its hard to turn down 2 first round draft picks plus an extra second (which gives more ability to move up with a first or take more top round talent) when we already got a blue chip player to lead our offense in Darnold.

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I'm probably just still scarred from 2011. An all-time top end draft and we gift wrapped Julio Jones for the #21 that year. Which netted us Big Phil Taylor from Baylor.

On the flip side, Cam Jordan was the #24 that year so you find the talent and you're ok. Arguably even worth it if you nail it at both picks.

The 2019 1st appeals because you could always envision a rookie QB leading a team like Buffalo to another top 5 pick.

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5 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I'm probably just still scarred from 2011. An all-time top end draft and we gift wrapped Julio Jones for the #21 that year. Which netted us Big Phil Taylor from Baylor.

On the flip side, Cam Jordan was the #24 that year so you find the talent and you're ok. Arguably even worth it if you nail it at both picks.

The 2019 1st appeals because you could always envision a rookie QB leading a team like Buffalo to another top 5 pick.

Well yeah, but 21/22/53 are already slightly favoring us. I don't see how with the trades in recent years that we get more than that. I'm all for the trade down personally.

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Yeah, I think you take the QB #1 and then do that Buffalo deal. Imagine coming out with the #1 overall QB and SIX more 1st/2nd round picks. That would be sick. Gimme like, an OT, WR, RB, CB, S, and C or LB. That would be awesome. Like...

1 - Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield
21 - Mike McGlinchey
22 - Davis/Hughes/Oliver/Ward/Jackson (top CB available)
33 - Derrius Guice/Ronald Jones
35 - D.J. Moore (I'm liking him more and more, shades of Steve Smith. In a weak WR class, he might go in the first)
53 - BPA - Take whoever is irrationally falling, at ANY position.
65 - Armani Watts/Whatever FS falls here

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The trade with the NYJ is my favorite because:

They WILL trade up for a QB in that scenario, leaving us with EITHER Fitz OR Barkley, who would be the guy we'd still get at #4 anyway.

The Buffalo deal barely fulfills the minimum on the draft value chart, so I don't like that. I'd take them to the cleaners and make them pony up future high picks. If they say no, then have fun starting Nathaniel Peterman next year.

If I don't get great value from a trade, I'm taking either Barkley or Fitzpatrick and then eating a nice big juicy steak with a big smile on my face after a nice draft day of Darnold at 1 and arguably the best position player in the draft at #4.

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37 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

The trade with the NYJ is my favorite because:

They WILL trade up for a QB in that scenario, leaving us with EITHER Fitz OR Barkley, who would be the guy we'd still get at #4 anyway.

The Buffalo deal barely fulfills the minimum on the draft value chart, so I don't like that. I'd take them to the cleaners and make them pony up future high picks. If they say no, then have fun starting Nathaniel Peterman next year.

If I don't get great value from a trade, I'm taking either Barkley or Fitzpatrick and then eating a nice big juicy steak with a big smile on my face after a nice draft day of Darnold at 1 and arguably the best position player in the draft at #4.

This. So much this. Buffalo would need to throw in another 1 next year for me to even be tempted to move into the 21 & 22, and if they don't want to play ball, sit there and take the stud.

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11 minutes ago, dawgdish said:

This. So much this. Buffalo would need to throw in another 1 next year for me to even be tempted to move into the 21 & 22, and if they don't want to play ball, sit there and take the stud.

My only issue with this reasoning is that there isn't really a no-doubt stud at a position we need available at #4.

For the team going after a QB, that's not a terrible deal because you NEED a QB. But if we get a QB #1 we don't have a glaring "can't win without it" hole that one of the three "pick em at 4" options will fix.

If this was a draft like the Julio/Green one, with two guys who are CLEARLY miles ahead of the competition at a position that we desperately need, I would say stay put. But since we aren't, I would be okay going for the multiple shots.

So for illustration, I'll take a lower ranked guy at each position and some extra guys.

Barkley vs. Guice, Carlton Davis, and Kameron Kelly
Fitzpatrick vs. Guice, Kameron Kelly, and Jaire Alexander
Chubb vs. Denzel Ward, Cam Sutton, and Duke Ejiofor

In all those slots, I'm taking the group over the solo prospect. It wouldn't necessarily be so if the solo guys were at the level of like Jalen Ramsey or Joey Bosa. But I think this is a pretty middle-friendly draft (not a lot of true top 10 guys, but lots of really nice talent in the 20-50 range).

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

The trade with the NYJ is my favorite because:

They WILL trade up for a QB in that scenario, leaving us with EITHER Fitz OR Barkley, who would be the guy we'd still get at #4 anyway.

The Buffalo deal barely fulfills the minimum on the draft value chart, so I don't like that. I'd take them to the cleaners and make them pony up future high picks. If they say no, then have fun starting Nathaniel Peterman next year.

If I don't get great value from a trade, I'm taking either Barkley or Fitzpatrick and then eating a nice big juicy steak with a big smile on my face after a nice draft day of Darnold at 1 and arguably the best position player in the draft at #4.

Yep. Agree with the trade. Agreed we’d need a whole lot more than that from buffalo. They’re trading up a whole lot to draft a qb, that will cost a premium. 

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2 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

I'm probably just still scarred from 2011. An all-time top end draft and we gift wrapped Julio Jones for the #21 that year. Which netted us Big Phil Taylor from Baylor.

On the flip side, Cam Jordan was the #24 that year so you find the talent and you're ok. Arguably even worth it if you nail it at both picks.

The 2019 1st appeals because you could always envision a rookie QB leading a team like Buffalo to another top 5 pick.

Cam Jordan was there....

Mo Wilkerson went after Phil Taylor from Baylor.

Hell, the pick we used to trade up to get Taylor, the 3rd rounder, was Justin Houston.

Gimme the damned picks.

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2 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

My only issue with this reasoning is that there isn't really a no-doubt stud at a position we need available at #4.

For the team going after a QB, that's not a terrible deal because you NEED a QB. But if we get a QB #1 we don't have a glaring "can't win without it" hole that one of the three "pick em at 4" options will fix.

If this was a draft like the Julio/Green one, with two guys who are CLEARLY miles ahead of the competition at a position that we desperately need, I would say stay put. But since we aren't, I would be okay going for the multiple shots.

So for illustration, I'll take a lower ranked guy at each position and some extra guys.

Barkley vs. Guice, Carlton Davis, and Kameron Kelly
Fitzpatrick vs. Guice, Kameron Kelly, and Jaire Alexander
Chubb vs. Denzel Ward, Cam Sutton, and Duke Ejiofor

In all those slots, I'm taking the group over the solo prospect. It wouldn't necessarily be so if the solo guys were at the level of like Jalen Ramsey or Joey Bosa. But I think this is a pretty middle-friendly draft (not a lot of true top 10 guys, but lots of really nice talent in the 20-50 range).

This is where I’m at.

I just don’t see an elite prospect, at a premium position, available to take. 

And for those who say position doesn’t matter, how high you taking a kicker?

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