BleedTheClock Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 BleedTheClock’s Early Top 50 Player List: -I don’t grade with factored positional importance, injury history, or character concerns. Those get flagged separately from their on-field performance. That’s why you’ll see a K and a FB on my list. 1. Quenton Nelson/OG/Notre Dame (99 Overall)---As close to flawless as prospects can get. Dominates every aspect of the game. Has the size and athleticism. Natural bend. Doesn’t lunge. Elite of the elite prospects. NFL Comparison: Steve Hutchinson 2. Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State (97 Overall)---Effortless mover and extremely skilled back. Big time playmaker that can find small creases and hit homeruns. Elite elusiveness. Can break tackles in multiple ways. Receiving and return ability add to his grade. NFL Comparison: Fred Taylor 3. Denzel Ward/CB/Ohio State (89 Overall)---Another effortless mover. Speed to run with any NFL player. Agility to cover snappy route runners. Good tackler. Excellent ball skills. Scheme versatile. Has a lot of experience in press man. Not many flaws outside of his size. NFL Comparison: Jason Verrett 4. Derwin James/S/Florida State (88 Overall)---A scary defensive player. Big, physical, fast. Brian Dawkins-like ability, except I think he can cover in the middle of the field better. Versatile enough to play either S spot. Great blitzer and underrated coverage piece. NFL Comparison: Brian Dawkins 5. Vita Vea/NT/Washington (86 Overall)---A run stuffing machine with some pass rush versatility. Plays a bit high, but he has violent hands and a motor. Very few NT’s ever have been able to move like him. Easily controls 2 gaps and eviscerates interior run games. NFL Comparison: Haloti Ngata 6. Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA (86 Overall)---Polish. Nearly flawless footwork and delivery. Very good arm. Great at progressing through reads. Threw pro style concepts. Has the necessary size. Wish he was a tad more athletic, but not a major concern. Allegedly not a great leader. NFL Comparison: Matt Ryan 7. Minkah Fitzpatrick/S/Alabama (86 Overall)---Solid overall football player. He’s got great size and solid athleticism. Can match up on slots and TE’s all day. Smart player that can blitz off the edge, jump a flat pass, or rob a comeback/curl route. Versatile enough to play Nickel or FS if need be. NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson 8. Marcus Davenport/DE/UTSA (86 Overall)---One of my favorites. Jarring power on his bull rush. Explosive off the snap. Excellent size and length. Bats down passes. Tenacious pass rusher, but meh against the run. Can bend the edge, but he just beats everyone with the bull rush. NFL Comparison: Danielle Hunter + Bull Rush 9. Calvin Ridley/WR/Alabama (86 Overall)---Underrated due to terrible QB play. Runs great routes. Has vertical speed. Has lateral speed and RAC ability. Catches the ball at a high rate. Lacks bulk and great collegiate production. Makes contested catches. Clutch. NFL Comparison: Stefon Diggs 10. Sam Darnold/QB/USC (85 Overall)---Big frame, great athlete, and superb arm talent. Played in an NFL style scheme. Has the leadership qualities. Accurate, especially down the field. Only real flaw is he’s oblivious to backside pressure. Best blend of upside and polish between the QB’s. NFL Comparison: Carson Wentz 11. Da’Ron Payne/DT/Alabama (85 Overall)---Powerful plug in the interior. Can play 3T or 1T, although I think he’s best suited as a 1. Not slow by any stretch, but he’s more brute power than he is a penetrator. Plays with great pad level and violent mitts. Will command double teams. NFL Comparison: Linval Joseph 12. RJ McIntosh/DT/Miami Fl. (85 Overall)---Richard Seymour-like ability. Inconsistent, but his “good tape” is better than anyone’s. Great size, speed, agility, and power. Needs to use his length to his advantage more. Deadly interior pass rusher equipped with a swim, spin, bull, and rip. NFL Comparison: Lazy Richard Seymour 13. Orlando Brown/OT/Oklahoma (85 Overall)---Massive man with murking power. Pancake maker that can move much better than people think. Reach blocks as well as anyone with his long strides. Finishes blocks. A little slow moving backwards in pass pro, but not overly damning. NFL Comparison: Andrew Whitworth 14. Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State (84 Overall)---Good overall talent. Not the greatest athlete, but he has great technique and gives constant effort. Finds lanes to the QB in multiple ways. Plays the run well and bats down passes. Solid but unspectacular pass rusher with a very low floor. NFL Comparison: William Hayes 15. Derrius Guice/RB/LSU (84 Overall)---Physically imposing runner with scatback moves to boot. Decent long speed. Has a great juke, spin, stiff arm, and truck move. Needs to play with more conviction when he’s dead to rights behind the LOS, but he’s extremely talented. NFL Comparison: Ryan Mathews 16. Joshua Jackson/CB/Iowa (84 Overall)---Perfect corner for a zone scheme. Has length, anticipation, and elite ball skills. Baits the QB into poor decisions. Not a great athlete and has technique problems, especially in press man. More scheme specific than a universal player. NFL Comparison: Josh Norman 17. Rashaan Evans/LB/Alabama (84 Overall)---Versatile linebacker that does a little bit of everything. Great athlete with decent size. Terrific motor. Incredible blitzer for an ILB. Best fit is in a 3-4 that sends 5 guys frequently. Needs to add some mass to his frame to better deal with blockers. NFL Comparison: Lawrence Timmons 18. Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma (84 Overall)---Has every tool you look for other than size. He’s got the great arm. He’s got the athleticism. He’s got the zip on the ball. He’s got the eyes to move safeties and come off read #1. He’s accurate to every level. He’s just short. NFL Comparison: Russell Wilson 19. Isaiah Wynn/OG/Georgia (84 Overall)---Squatty tackle that will move to guard. Excellent athlete with perfect technique to make up for average play strength. Plays like a LT but lacks the length to play there in the NFL. Not many flaws to Wynn’s game if he’s moving inside. NFL Comparison: Shaq Mason 20. MJ Stewart/CB/North Carolina (84 Overall)---Physically strong corner that plays very hard and has a great blend of man and zone skills. He’s a stop hitter and puts guys down in the run game. Puts WR’s to sleep in press man. Not overly quick or fast and may struggle a little with speed. NFL Comparison: Malcolm Butler 21. Roquan Smith/LB/Georgia (83 Overall)---Rangy tough linebacker that doesn’t miss tackles very often. At his best scraping over the top and cleaning up for the “front 6”. Elite in coverage. Lacks size and the ability to shed blocks but takes great angles to keep his pads clean. NFL Comparison: Lavonte David 22. Anthony Miller/WR/Memphis (83 Overall)---Overall really solid player. Runs the best routes of anyone in the class. Has great hands. Has good speed and agility. Is a little small, but won’t be relegated to slot WR duties only. Constantly finds ways to get open against man and zone. NFL Comparison: Doug Baldwin 23. Nick Chubb/RB/Georgia (83 Overall)---Hard-nosed runner that maximizes every yard his OL gives him. No dancing; just violence. Not slow or stiff, but I wouldn’t call either of those strengths. Great pass protector and solid pass catcher. Injury history. NFL Comparison: Mark Ingram 24. Ronnie Harrison/S/Alabama (83 Overall)---Underrated. He’s got knockout power in run defense and is very good in coverage. Played deep safety frequently, but probably a SS in the NFL. Lacks great lateral agility but didn’t hurt him from being in perfect position when playing centerfield. NFL Comparison: Adrian Wilson 25. Christian Kirk/WR/Texas A&M (83 Overall)---Speed demon that has both short area quickness and long speed. Very good hands. Will compete for the football in traffic. Best RAC WR in the class. Competitive. Needs to refine his route running as he only ran a few routes in college. NFL Comparison: Lee Evans 26. Mark Walton/RB/Miami Fl. (83 Overall)---Very underrated. Great speed and explosiveness. That speed turns itself into power surprisingly well for a smaller RB. Has good hands and will hit homeruns against fast teams. Built like a scatback, runs like a power back. Not overly elusive. NFL Comparison: Tatum Bell 27. Dimitri Flowers/FB/Oklahoma (83 Overall)---A versatile fullback capable of killing you down the seam or in the flat catching passes. Solid run blocker, but most of his damage comes in the passing game. Oklahoma used him like a TE off the line a lot too (H-back). NFL Comparison: Larry Centers 28. Kendrick Norton/DT/Miami Fl. (82 Overall)---Powerfully built guy that disrupts on the interior. Doesn’t get pushed back often even against double teams. Has NFL size and athleticism. Can play 3T or NT. Inconsistent effort and hand usage knocks him down. Conditioning poor? NFL Comparison: Arby Jones 29. Mark Andrews/TE/Oklahoma (82 Overall)---Great receiving TE, especially against zone. Understands how to run routes intermediately. Great hands and is a red zone monster. Looks to have in-line blocking size but was rarely asked to do that. Not as physical as his frame suggests. NFL Comparison: Zach Ertz 30. Connor Williams/OT/Texas (82 Overall)---Great athlete for the position. Can mirror speed as well as anyone. Effortless kick step and good power base when he locks onto you. A bit lunge prone in run blocking and has an injury history. Average size for a LT. NFL Comparison: Ryan Clady 31. Brian O’Neill/OT/Pittsburgh (81 Overall)---Great frame and an awesome run blocker. Made good DL look like children at times this year. Pad level is often too high and he’s got an ugly kick step, but he’s athletic and raw. He’ll need some time to develop, but he’s got big-time ability. NFL Comparison: Eric Fisher 32. Billy Price/C/Ohio State (81 Overall)---A rock on the inside. Good at everything. He can move to the next level seamlessly, hold up on a nose tackle, pull and lead on outside runs, and has versatility to play 3 different spots on the OL. Won’t kill people but doesn’t make any mistakes. NFL Comparison: Eric Wood 33. Auden Tate/WR/Florida State (81 Overall)---Excellent size and catch radius. Able to box out every corner the NFL will throw his way. Can line up inside or out. Solid speed but won’t take the top off any defense. Faces up to everything thrown his way; not great at back shouldering. NFL Comparison: Sydney Rice 34. Leighton Vander Esch/LB/Boise State (81 Overall)---Speedy chase you down linebacker that doesn’t miss many tackles. Nose for the ball. Good in passing lanes. Makes great reads and flies. Pretty light for an ILB and can get caught over pursuing. Better fit for a WLB than a MLB. NFL Comparison: Kiko Alonso 35. Da’Shawn Hand/DT/Alabama (81 Overall)---Pure potential. Elite size and length. Superb athleticism for a big man. Ideal 5-Tech prospect physically. He’s lazy and his hand usage is terrible right now, but he shows flashes of brilliance like Chris Jones did a few years ago. NFL Comparison: Chris Jones 36. Sony Michel/RB/Georgia (81 Overall)---Does a little bit of everything. Good speed, good patience, good blocker, great receiver. Has power and stays low through the hole. Doesn’t have elite long speed or jarring power but blends enough skills to be someone’s feature back. NFL Comparison: Joseph Addai 37. Jerome Baker/LB/Ohio State (81 Overall)---Excellent athlete that closes like a missile. Playmaking linebacker that can run down anyone. Not great at taking on blockers and is susceptible to being swallowed up by play action. Still raw but has a lot of untapped potential. NFL Comparison: Daryl Washington 38. Deon Cain/WR/Clemson (80 Overall)---Deep ball receiver that high points and runs past people. Struggles to make the routine catches consistently and isn’t an adept route runner. Has #1 WR potential but lacks the refinement right now. Has some character concerns. NFL Comparison: Donte Moncrief 39. Kurt Benkert/QB/Virginia (80 Overall)---Poised and accurate QB. Surprising arm strength and mobility. Capable of throwing to all locations on the field with zip and touch. Inconsistent performances. Threw pro style route concepts but within a spread scheme—always in the gun. NFL Comparison: Kirk Cousins 40. Lorenzo Carter/DE/Georgia (80 Overall)---Super lanky athlete with the speed to rip around any edge. He’s capable of playing OLB in a 3-4 or even a 4-3 IMO, as he covered well when asked to do that. Tough player that I’d compare to a polished Barkevious Mingo. NFL Comparison: Barkevious Mingo 41. DaeSean Hamilton/WR/Penn State (80 Overall)---Great route runner, good speed and quickness, great hands. Lacks #1 WR size but isn’t a pipsqueak either. He’s going to be able to run inside and outside routes and uncover from NFL CB’s. Underrated future NFL starter. NFL Comparison: Nate Burleson 42. Antonio Callaway/WR/Florida (80 Overall)---Has very loose hips and long speed. Decent size and solid hands, but still drops a few and doesn’t always hands catch. Ran a full route tree and produced at all levels of the field. #1 potential paired with horrible character concerns. NFL Comparison: Donte Stallworth 43. Michael Badgley/K/Miami Fl. (80 Overall)---Kickers are boring to scout, but Badgley is a good one. Is anyone reading this? If you are, Badgley has the leg from 50+ and was deadly accurate. Will he get taken in the first 4 rounds? No, but he’s the draft’s best kicker that I’ve seen. NFL Comparison: Who cares? 44. Simmie Cobbs/WR/Indiana (80 Overall)---Love Cobbs. He’s got a great NFL body and boxes out DB’s as good as anyone. Comes back to the ball consistently. Catches everything. Excellent route runner. He’s just really slow both vertically and horizontally. NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins 45. Mike McGlinchey/OT/Notre Dame (80 Overall)---Almost too big for his own good. Has goofy feet moving backwards in pass protection and got beat with speed all year. Still, he’s a very good run blocker and plays nasty. He needs to add bulk to his frame and continue to work on his pass pro. NFL Comparison: Eben Britton 46. Ronald Jones/RB/USC (79 Overall)---Speed and burst ahead of every other RB in the class. He goes from 0-60 faster than any of these guys. Herky jerky run style. Not afraid to run inside but lacks the power to break tackles. Good hands and homerun hitting ability. NFL Comparison: Felix Jones 47. Tremaine Edmunds/LB/Virginia Tech (79 Overall)---Great range and athletic base. He’s fast but seems stiff to me moving up and down. Doesn’t have great instincts and was invisible in a few games I saw. Still, he’s a good player that will end up starting at SLB for somebody. Elite ceiling. NFL Comparison: Julian Peterson 48. Dorance Armstrong/DE/Kansas (79 Overall)---Speed rusher that has every raw tool you need. Production was low due to constant double teams and chips. Love his intensity and motor. Plays the run well despite his size. Could play in a 4-3 or 3-4 (OLB). NFL Comparison: Jerry Hughes 49. Akrum Wadley/RB/Iowa (78 Overall)---Small runningback that plays big. Great running between the tackles and at finding small creases. Sets up blockers by selling inside-out moves. Drags defenders with him. Very agile but not burner fast. Needs desperately to add weight. NFL Comparison: Chris Thompson 50. Mike Hughes/CB/UCF (78 Overall)---Versatile corner that does a little bit of everything. He played off and press man, off and press zone. Returned kicks, tackles well, and has solid instincts and ball skills. Average size and athleticism, but he’s a tough kid that will be someone’s #2 CB. NFL Comparison: Kareem Jackson -Notable players I routinely see in top 50 lists that I didn’t scout yet: Kolton Miller, Isaiah Oliver, Taven Bryan, Will Hernandez, Dallas Goedert, Donte Jackson, Tyrell Crosby, Jesse Bates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I could have sworn that said "sub par" arm talent in Darnold and was about to make a huge fool out of myself and go off on a huge rant. Second glance said superb...huge sigh of relief LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I personally feel like Simmie Cobbs is the WR that everyone HOPES that they get in Sutton. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Love that you have DaeSean Hamilton in there, but I wouldn't say he has "great hands". He does struggle with drops occasionally. Amazing routes though. I think he's pretty underrated this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chwf3rd25 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Happy to see a few guys I'm very high on (although not as high as you are) here in RJ McIntosh and Mark Walton. Some questions: 1. what makes you say Ronnie Harrison is good in coverage? I have a 3rd round grade on him b/c I saw a complete liability in man coverage which would almost preclude a defense with him from playing any kind of man concepts using their safeties. 2. why no Taven Bryan and Rasheem Green? 3. Nick Chubb - do you see concerns with his lack of explosiveness? I didnt see any juice when watching him. Even if he can reach a decent speed in a straight line it seems to take him a long time to build up to it. I think the Alabama game was a very good example of this as he was detrimental to Georgia in that game against an NFL caliber defense. 4. Akrum Wadley - this one I really don't get. He's 5'10/188 and wins just with quickness in my opinion. I cant see how you can have him above someone like John Kelly. 5. Simmie Cobbs - how is he an excellent route runner? everything I saw him catch was generally either a slant or a jump ball. I have a hard time seeing him really translating to the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da_Ducktator Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I could certainly disagree with a lot, but I do appreciate the effort here and like a fair amount of the comps. LOVE the Julian Peterson comp for Termaine Edmunds. Surprised you have him so low if that is your comp. Peterson was one of the best linebackers of the decade at his prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 20 hours ago, BleedTheClock said: 4. Derwin James/S/Florida State (88 Overall)---A scary defensive player. Big, physical, fast. Brian Dawkins-like ability, except I think he can cover in the middle of the field better. Versatile enough to play either S spot. Great blitzer and underrated coverage piece. NFL Comparison: Brian Dawkins "He's like this HoF except better." ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Danger said: "He's like this HoF except better." ??? Except better? Better equipped athletically to roam in the center of the defense. And I have Derwin James marked as a future superstar so I have no problems making that comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CalhounLambeau Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I really like a lot of your comps. I can tell you put some time into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Nice list, good comps, not hot takey. I think you’re underselling Edmunds though, dude is the same age Calvin Ridley was in 9th grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Most of the list is good but here are a few of my criticisms: 1. No Arden Key? Since you're not taking character concerns into account, I don't see how you can justify keeping him out of the top 50. At this time last year he was being talked about as a top 5 pick. I hope that was just an oversight because in terms of talent I don't know how anyone could say he isn't top 50. I personally think he's top 10 in terms of talent and the #2 DE prospect in the class after Marcus Davenport. 2. No Lamar Jackson? But Baker Mayfield is top 20? Maybe I'll be made to look silly on this but I don't know how you can justify Baker Mayfield being ranked so high while Lamar Jackson is not even in the top 50. Both won Heisman trophies and dominated college. In terms of pro potential both have serious question marks. Lamar Jackson's accuracy is a concern. As is Baker Mayfield's size and ability to play in a pro style offense. Plus the Mayfield/Wilson comp holds zero credibility. Russell Wilson played in a pro-style offense at Wisconsin. His arm strength is significantly better than Mayfield. Plus he's 10x the athlete. With athleticism being a major part of Wilson's game given how much he's rolled out of the pocket. There is no way Baker Mayfield can play in the NFL like Russell Wilson does given the chasm in difference between the two athletically. Lamar Jackson is closer to being Michael Vick in the NFL than Baker Mayfield is to being Russell Wilson. 3. Antonio Callaway way too low. Without taking off-field issues into concern, he should be significantly higher than 42nd overall with that many WRs ahead of him. I know I'm higher than most on him but without off-field concerns he's a surefire 1st round talent. 4. No Rashaad Penny? With as many RBs as you have listed in the top 50 I don't see how Rashaad Penny couldn't get in there. He was the best RB at the senior bowl and we saw last year how Kareem Hunt was able to parlay that into a great rookie season. As with Antonio Callaway, I know I'm higher than most on him but if Akrum Wadley can make it into your top 50, I don't see how Rashaad Penny couldn't. A guy who is bigger, faster, and was more productive in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, VanS said: 1. No Arden Key? Since you're not taking character concerns into account, I don't see how you can justify keeping him out of the top 50. At this time last year he was being talked about as a top 5 pick. I hope that was just an oversight because in terms of talent I don't know how anyone could say he isn't top 50. I personally think he's top 10 in terms of talent and the #2 DE prospect in the class after Marcus Davenport. ---He is Barkevious Mingo to me. He's pointless in the run game and gets into "everything is a pass" mode. It's part of LSU's defensive scheme, but it has plagued a lot of their DE's transitioning to the NFL. He's an excellent athlete with a great frame. However, he doesn't hustle, doesn't convert speed to power, and is basically a speed rip player only right now. He's located right outside of my top 50. I have seen enough bad tape to push him down. Lorenzo Carter is my #3 DE, but you could make a case to put Key there. Both are similar prospects except I see Carter use power more consistently and I see him play sound gap control football at a much higher level. The dropoff from Davenport/Chubb is pretty severe IMO. 25 minutes ago, VanS said: 2. No Lamar Jackson? But Baker Mayfield is top 20? Maybe I'll be made to look silly on this but I don't know how you can justify Baker Mayfield being ranked so high while Lamar Jackson is not even in the top 50. Both won Heisman trophies and dominated college. In terms of pro potential both have serious question marks. Lamar Jackson's accuracy is a concern. As is Baker Mayfield's size and ability to play in a pro style offense. Plus the Mayfield/Wilson comp holds zero credibility. Russell Wilson played in a pro-style offense at Wisconsin. His arm strength is significantly better than Mayfield. Plus he's 10x the athlete. With athleticism being a major part of Wilson's game given how much he's rolled out of the pocket. There is no way Baker Mayfield can play in the NFL like Russell Wilson does given the chasm in difference between the two athletically. Lamar Jackson is closer to being Michael Vick in the NFL than Baker Mayfield is to being Russell Wilson. --Baker Mayfield is extremely accurate. Lamar Jackson is not. They both played in quirky schemes that should be criticized, but the accuracy was the big one for me. Wilson's arm strength is not significantly better than Mayfields. Both have rifles. I'd even argue Mayfield has MORE zip on his throws in the 10-20 yard range than Wilson does. Wilson is more athletic, but I see Mayfield manipulate the pocket, throw on the run, and make big plays with his legs just like Wilson does. He won't escape as easily as Wilson, but the way in which he continues to look to pass amongst chaos is where I see the comparison. He is great with a muddy pocket. Neither is an elite QB prospect like Josh Dobbs, but both will likely end up in the 1st round. Baker will go significantly higher because of his accuracy. Jackson will provide more upside, but he's pretty darn far away from his ceiling where Mayfield is significantly closer to his. The only thing Jackson has on Mayfield is height and speed...and it's not like Jackson is a "big" QB anyways. And speed is the last factor when grading out a QB that matters. 25 minutes ago, VanS said: 3. Antonio Callaway way too low. Without taking off-field issues into concern, he should be significantly higher than 42nd overall with that many WRs ahead of him. I know I'm higher than most on him but without off-field concerns he's a surefire 1st round talent. --I don't think so. He drops a lot of easy passes and has a small frame. You are one of the only people calling him a sure-fire 1st round talent...even if character was not an issue. You're the one with the hot take here, just keep that in mind. You might be right in the end, but I don't think my ranking is wacky. 25 minutes ago, VanS said: 4. No Rashaad Penny? With as many RBs as you have listed in the top 50 I don't see how Rashaad Penny couldn't get in there. He was the best RB at the senior bowl and we saw last year how Kareem Hunt was able to parlay that into a great rookie season. As with Antonio Callaway, I know I'm higher than most on him but if Akrum Wadley can make it into your top 50, I don't see how Rashaad Penny couldn't. A guy who is bigger, faster, and was more productive in college. --I don't like Rashaad Penny. He's not Kareem Hunt, who ran angry every time he touched the ball at Toledo. This is a big tall back that can run fast in a straight line, but doesn't play with power and can't move laterally. I like that he has hands, but he is too much of a big play or nothing kind of RB for my liking. I don't think he's going to do well in a phone booth. He's more of a straight line athlete than he is a RB to me right now. He lacks the little things that make a RB great in the NFL. He is like a less physical and smaller Kalen Ballage. If I want a stiff runner that has homerun speed and great hands, I'm picking Ballage over Penny despite their collegiate statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said: ---He is Barkevious Mingo to me. He's pointless in the run game and gets into "everything is a pass" mode. It's part of LSU's defensive scheme, but it has plagued a lot of their DE's transitioning to the NFL. He's an excellent athlete with a great frame. However, he doesn't hustle, doesn't convert speed to power, and is basically a speed rip player only right now. He's located right outside of my top 50. I have seen enough bad tape to push him down. Lorenzo Carter is my #3 DE, but you could make a case to put Key there. Both are similar prospects except I see Carter use power more consistently and I see him play sound gap control football at a much higher level. The dropoff from Davenport/Chubb is pretty severe IMO. --Baker Mayfield is extremely accurate. Lamar Jackson is not. They both played in quirky schemes that should be criticized, but the accuracy was the big one for me. Wilson's arm strength is not significantly better than Mayfields. Both have rifles. I'd even argue Mayfield has MORE zip on his throws in the 10-20 yard range than Wilson does. Wilson is more athletic, but I see Mayfield manipulate the pocket, throw on the run, and make big plays with his legs just like Wilson does. He won't escape as easily as Wilson, but the way in which he continues to look to pass amongst chaos is where I see the comparison. He is great with a muddy pocket. Neither is an elite QB prospect like Josh Dobbs, but both will likely end up in the 1st round. Baker will go significantly higher because of his accuracy. Jackson will provide more upside, but he's pretty darn far away from his ceiling where Mayfield is significantly closer to his. The only thing Jackson has on Mayfield is height and speed...and it's not like Jackson is a "big" QB anyways. And speed is the last factor when grading out a QB that matters. 1. We'll have to see what Arden Key measures, but on tape he looks signficantly bigger than Mingo. Mingo measured 6'4" 240lbs at the combine. Key is listed by LSU at 6'6" 265 lbs. That's a pretty big difference in size if Key ends up measuring anywhere to close to that. I don't thin the Mingo comparison holds much weight other than them being from the same school. In terms of a physical profile, Arden Key is a lot closer to Simeon Rice than he is to Barkevious Mingo. With regard to the bad tape, what year are you looking at? Cause I'm personally not even gonna look at his 2017 tape. He was never himself last year. My analysis starts and ends with his 2016 tape which I found to be impressive. I'll be interested to see how he looks physically at the combine and how he runs. If he looks like he did in 2016, then he's a surefire top 10 talent IMO. 2. Baker Mayfield played in an air raid offense with receivers running open in a conference that has had less players drafted (especially on defense) than any other conference the last couple of years. Now I know the difference in conferences pales in comparison to the difference between college and the NFL but you have to take into account that in almost every game he played in college, Baker Mayfield was playing on a team with signficantly more talent than his opponent. And the few times he played against a team with more talent (Clemson 2015 and Georgia 2017) his team lost. We'll see how he transitions into the NFL, but I'm sure he won't be playing like he did in college. He's gonna have to start playing under center. And he won't have a huge talent advantage on his side every game like he did in college. Also, I saw NOTHING during the senior bowl that gave me confidence he can play inside the pocket in the NFL. Once again his height will be factor here. Russell Wilson compensates for his lack of height in the pocket with how many roll outs they do given his athleticism. I'm not sure Mayfield can do that as well as Wilson. Also we'll just have to agree to disagree about arm strength. I see an average NFL arm at best on Mayfield. Russell Wilson on the other hand has an ELITE arm. The Drew Brees comparison holds more weight IMO than Russell Wilson for Mayfield. But will Mayfield find a Sean Payton to get the most out of him like Drew Brees found when he went to New Orleans? As much as I would like to say with absolute confidence that Baker Mayfield will NOT be a star in the NFL, I have to admit that coaching plays as big a part in the success or failure of a QB as their raw talent. So while I don't find Mayfield's raw talent to be that enticing, I've also seen guys with less talent than him have big time success in the NFL. More than any other players in this draft, what team and coaching staff Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson go to will determine their NFL success moreso than their talent. Neither has a prototypical QB skill set where regardless of location they will succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, VanS said: Cause I'm personally not even gonna look at his 2017 tape. wut? I'm not gonna lie, I stopped reading your post after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said: wut? I'm not gonna lie, I stopped reading your post after this. He was out of shape most of the year. It would only cloud your judgment as to what type of player he will be. As long as he's in shape for the combine and looks like his 2016 self, then that's the only tape I need to watch. And given the fact you stopped reading there, I'm sure you read the part about how Mingo and Key aren't even remotely similar physically. Arden Key is likely 2 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier. That comp just doesn't fit other than them being from the same school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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